For the third straight year, I will be counting down my personal Top
200 Players in the NFL. This ranking is completely subjective, built off
of a completely subjective list of criteria, mixing recent performance
(what they did in 2011 matters most, but 2009-2010 is still relevant),
health, age, status and other random things that are unquantifiable.
Unlike last year, I am not going through the exercise of listing all of
the people that fell off of the list from 2011. First, that takes time,
and second, I would rather not look back at all the hysterically wrong
rankings I made a year ago. One note: this is not some trade value type
column, or most valuable. For instance, Richard Sherman is ranked above
Tony Romo. Would Dallas make that trade? Of course not. Is Sherman
better at what he is asked to do than Romo? In my opinion he is. Anyway,
let's get to numbers #150-101
*BTW, big shout-out to Football Outsiders (FO), my favorite independent football site on the web. I used a lot of their numbers in my justifications. Mostly, DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average), DYAR (defense-adjusted yards above replacement) Success Rate (how many plays a defender achieves success on), stop rate (the rate a defender makes stops), Defeats (any big play made by a defender) ypa allowed (yards per pass allowed by a defender), and more. Their stuff is great, and without them, I would never know how good Alteraun Verner is, for example. I wouldn't know a whole lot of other stuff as well*
150.) Jabaal Sheard (DE - CLE)
8.5 sacks and 18 hurries as a rookie for a team that didn't face too many passes given their stagnant offense? That is a recipe for a quiet, but extremely effective player. Sheard also didn't slow down as the season wore on, another sign that he can be quite special.
149.) Jonathan Goodwin (C - SF)
How about this for a good season? Goodwin leaves the place where he made his name with 5 highly effective seasons in New Orleans, and then goes to the 49ers to be the elder statesman in a line for a 13-3 team. Goodwin was the best pass-blocker the 49ers had on that line last season.
148.) Jonathan Stewart (RB - CAR)
Pity for Stewart and Williams. As long as they reside in Carolina, their rushing TD opportunities are going to be swallowed up by each other and more importantly Cam Newton. But there is a positive, gaping holes that allowed Stewart to pound his way to 762 highly efficient (24% DVOA) yards at 5.4 a clip.
147.) Carson Palmer (QB - OAK)
Discounting Carson Palmer's first two games where he was understandably rusty, he started the last 8 games for the Raiders. Other than throwing 10 interceptions (4 of them against the 15-1 Packers), Palmer threw for 2,300 yards at 8.5 ypa, with a 63.2 cmp%. Not too bad, given the injuries around him. Worth a 1st and a 2nd? No. Worth acquiring in a vacuum? You bet.
146.) Fred Davis (TE - WAS)
Again, in a league with some historically-productive TE seasons, Davis's 65/800/7 type season can get lost, but given his improvement as a blocker, and the fact that he'll be playing with what we all assume is a better QB, his value might be realized.
145.) Stephen Tulloch (OLB - DET)
The Lions have very little experience and skill in their defensive back-7, and the little they do have resides in Stephen Tulloch.The former Titans standout was excellent against the pass once again, and although he's not the run defender he used to be, he can be used as a great zone defender for the numerous slot/TEs the Lions will face.
144.) Patrick Peterson (CB - ARZ)
How good is he as a corner? Who knows. Rookie corners are rarely finished things (and those that seem to be - McCourty - might not), but Peterson's value may lie with him being the first person since Devin Hester to really affect a team with his return abilities. I certainly got "Devin Hester... You are RIDICULOUS" flashbacks throughout 2011.
143.) Earl Thomas (S - SEA)
Earl Thomas had one of the better rookie seasons for a safety in years in 2010. His overall play dipped slightly, but he still showed all the promise of a future all-pro. He was a sure-tackling, success-rate machine once again in 2010, and while his interception numbers dropped, his coverage numbers bettered.
142.) Adrian Wilson (S - ARZ)
He's here on reputation. Seeing the slow decline of Adrian Wilson is sad, but he still remains a vocal leader and sound player. His aggresiveness against the run has begun to lessen, but Wilson has remained just as valuable in coverage.
141.) Kevin Williams (DT - MIN)
Talk about another player here on merit. The guy who quietly built a great hall-of-fame worthy career is still pounding away at opposing guards and centers. He's just 32, and still productive (with 5.5 sacks and 13 hurries last year), but Williams now has to face a lot more double-teams with the other half gone.
140.) John Abraham (DE - ATL)
9.5 more sacks (and 35! more hurries) and John Abraham continues his Adrian Wilson-of-DEs type career one more year. He totally outplayed the ballyhooed FA signing Ray Edwards, and is still a key focus for any opposing D-Line. At 34, he's nearing the end of usual productivity for DEs.
139.) Max Starks (G - PIT)
After being the only Steelers o-lineman to stay healthy from 2006-2009, Starks has played just 20 games over the past two seasons. Still, he might be coming off of his best season when he was on the field, dominating opposing LEs. Roethlisberger's protection plummeted with Starks gone.
138.) Dez Bryant (WR - DAL)
As of this writing, Dez Bryant has just been arrested for allegedly attacking his mother. It is likely he will be suspended, and it is likely he is every bit the headache that made him fall on draft day. That said, he improved in every area as a sophomore, and if he can avoid trouble, can continue to replace the slip in production from Witten and Miles Austin.
137.) Lawrence Timmons (ILB - PIT)
Timmons play slipped from 2010, but without Harrison and Woodley, teams could hone in on stopping him. He was still rock-solid against the run, but Timmons was used less as a blitzer in 2011. The biggest plus for Timmons is that he has been highly durable and dependable at a position with injury and age concerns for the Steelers.
136.) Ryan Kerrigan (OLB - WAS)
By FOs stats, Ryan Kerrigan was the #1 OLB in all of football playing the run (in success rate and yards allowed). He also chipped in 28 hurries and 7.5 sacks). He's dynamite, and is, I believe, the 3rd highest rated rookie defender. The gap isn't that big between him and the other two, though, as most would think.
135.) DeSean Jackson (WR - PHI)
Jackson had his second straight decent season (which was a step down, remind you, from 2009), but he says he's finally happy and on-board with a new contract. Fine. His catch rate improved back above 50% in 2011, but that belied the fact that he was catching fewer bombs and more developed, shorter routes. That may not be a bad thing.
134.) Julio Jones (WR - ATL)
Atlanta was criticized for trading a truckload for Julio Jones, but it is hard to say that the player didn't disappoint. 54/959/7 in 13 games (17.8 ypc). Those are numbers of a deep-threat, which is exactly what Julio Jones was advertised as. If he keeps improving, no one will remember what Atlanta gave up for that trade.
133.) D'Brickshaw Ferguson (LT - NY)
D'Brick's level dropped a bit from his lofty 2010 (something that can be said about almost every Jet, really), but he was still the 2nd best o-lineman the Jets had. His pass protection fell a bit more than his run-blocking, but some of that may be Sanchez's lack of pocket-presence.
132.) Daryl Smith (MLB - JAX)
Daryl Smith led the NFL in 'Defeats' in 2010. He still had over 20 (down from 38), and was still a top-10 player against the run at MLB, but chances are 2010 was a fluke. 2011 wasn't, and Smith should continue to be a sturdy member of a really underrated defense.
131.) Vontae Davis (CB - MIA)
Needless to say, after another season of better production, Vontae Smith has ended all debate about if he's better than Sean Smith. Sadly, he's not similarly better than a handful of other CBs, which looked like it could be a future possibility a couple of seasons ago. Davis has, though, turned into one of the best run-stopping corners in the NFL.
130.) Marques Colston (WR - NO)
With more options, Colston was targeted 25 fewer times in 2011, but had a career high 75% catch rate. He's been about as consistent as any WR since entering the league in 2006, and although he's not a dynamic player that could exceed outside of the NO offense, he's integral to the success of it.
129.) Aaron Hernandez (TE - NE)
This might seem low, but to me, Aaron Hernandez wouldn't be nearly the producer he is without Gronk and Welker making him option #3. Hernandez is far more elusive than I ever though, but unlike those two, he can be covered.
128.) Brent Grimes (CB - ATL)
Brent Grimes was the #3 and #2 in FOs success rate and ypp allowed. Now, this was out-of-line from his usual good production, so it might be a fluke. It will be interesting to see what he does with more targets now that Samuel (#4 and #a in those) is across from him. If he holds up, this could be the NFL's best corner tandem.
127.) Fred Jackson (RB - BUF)
Jackson was having his best season (5.5 ypc, dangerous as ever as a receiver) before he got hurt. Fully healthy, Jackson can continue to be one of the best multi-purpose backs for cheap, holding off Spiller-time a couple more years. The only issue is with sojourns in Canada, Fred Jackson is already 31.
126.) Joe Haden (CB - CLE)
Haden was the opposite of Grimes, with his 2011 numbers falling from a great rookie campaign (by FOs numbers, his performance as a rookie was better than McCourty). Haden still had 18 passes defended, which is a better indicator than his '0' interceptions of his future value.
125.) Joe Flacco (QB - BAL)
Oh the odd lives the QB class of 2008 leads. For years, Flacco and Ryan have traded off the title of the best QB from that class (Ryan's in 2008, 2010, Flacco in 2009, 2011). I have no idea who I would rather have. Flacco is nowhere near as bad as he can look at times, and he's become really good at limiting turnovers, which for now is half the battle with the defense he has behind him.
124.) Anquan Boldin (WR - BAL)
His last few years in Baltimore, Bolding was used primarily on shorter routes, but in Baltimore he's ironically gone deeper. His ypc rose again in 2011, as his chemistry with Flacco improved. Boldin has been both durable and consistent, but with the big 30 having passed, it is time to start wondering about decline.
123.) Matt Ryan (QB - ATL)
Matt Ryan's stats were basically the same in 2011 as they were in 2010. The one difference was he stopped putting together last-minute drives which he did incredibly well in 2010. Both years are flukes at the opposite end. Matt Ryan might take a jump again with the continued maturation of Julio Jones. Back in 2008, people were envisioning Matt Ryan being a top-4 QB. Now, he's not a top-4 QB whose name starts with 'R', but that doesn't mean he isn't able to win a playoff game.
122.) Cliff Avril (DE - DET)
Cliff Avril is by far the pure-pass rusher of Detroit's feared front, but that doesn't make him any less valuable. 11 sacks and 25 hurries, which marks the 2nd straight year he has been 8+ and 20+ in those two stats. His run play can improve, but as a pass rusher, he's about as good as any in that second tier.
121.) Sean Lee (ILB - DAL)
How do you get 23 defeats when you don't have any sacks and few tackles for loss? Be a really good cover linebacker. Sean Lee might be the most ball-hawking cover linebacker, and his cover skills took a step up from 2010 (when they were already good). The Dallas defense has lost a lot over the past couple years, but uncovering Lee has been a huge boon.
120.) DeAngelo Williams (RB - CAR)
Football Outsiders notes that DeAngelo Williams is three carries away from becoming the third RB in NFL history to have over 1,000 carries with a 5.0+ ypr. That isn't skewed either, with four of his six seasons crossing the 5.0 threshold. He's not the workhorse back he was in 2008-09, but he might be just as efficient (#3 in RB DVOA), and is in a perfect offense for his skills.
119.) Ike Taylor (CB - PIT)
Ike Taylor has been the Steelers best corner since about 2004. He's had a surprisingly long, successful career for someone never mentioned among the best in the NFL at his position. So far, he had one truly outstanding season (2008), but in 2011, he was #16 and #6 in Success rate and ypp allowed, as LeBeau asked him to play more man. Ike did it quite well.
118.) Scott Wells (C - STL)
Hopefully, his move to STL doesn't come with the same depreciation in his skills that Harvey Dahl's move to STL did a year ago. The only red flag from the rock-solid Scott Wells that I can think of his that the Packers chose 39-year-old Jeff Saturday over him, but even the best organizations make mistakes. Wells might be one of Thompson's few.
117.) Connor Barwin (OLB - HOU)
Connor Barwin's contract is up this year. My gut feeling is that assuming Wade Philips or his 3-4 defense is around come 2013, the Texans will do whatever it takes to make sure Barwin is there with them. He was unleashed in the DeMarcus Ware role in 2011, with 11.5 sacks and 26 hurries. He'll never have Ware-like production, but he might do what another Wade OLB did in his prime, and emulate Shuan Phillips instead.
116.) LaMarr Houston (DT - OAK)
LaMarr Houston had just one sack, which seems to be a step-down from a highly productive rookie season, but hidden behind those numbers were 21 hurries and being the player who drew the 2nd most offensive holding calls. He was still every bit the disruptive force he was as a rookie, learning loads under the wing of Richard Seymour.
115.) Marshawn Lynch (RB - SEA)
Beast Mode got a DUI recently, and as a repeat offender he might have to sit out a game or three. Not to worry, since he basically sat out the first 6 games last year, then turned it on and was incredible down the stretch for one of the NFL's friskiest teams. Lynch has become far more successful as a physical, bruising runner than I would have ever imagined.
114.) Chris Myers (C - HOU)
There is a reason that the Texans, the best breeding ground for lineman in the NFL these days, chose to keep Chris Myers over Eric Winston. Probably because he's a center, a harder position to fill. Myers was excellent again in 2011, and will be counted on to keep that level of play with Winston and Monty Briesel gone.
113.) Brandon Pettigrew (TE - DET)
Pettigrew might be somewhat overrated by conventional stats. His high volume numbers are mostly due to him being one of the few dependable targets for Stafford to throw to when Calvin Johnson is triple-covered. That said, his blocking is definitely underrated. He's about as complete as a TE will get (again, other than those three monsters still to come).
112.) Vincent Jackson (WR - TB)
Jackson was a DVOA star in 2009-2010, but although his volume stats remained constant in 2011, his catch rate dropped. Some of that might be Philip Rivers having an off year. No matter what the case, the Bucs and more importantly Josh Freeman, need a happy, healthy Vincent Jackson. He still remains one of the league's top two or three deep threats.
111.) Michael Vick (QB - PHI)
Injuries derailed Michael Vick as they always seem to do, but they derailed what was another really good season. There were reports of him going back to his old playground-style ways, and he definitely threw a more appropriate amount of interceptions, but when he was playing, he was essentially as valuable a player as he was in 2010.
110.) Jordan Gross (T - CAR)
Jordan Gross was the anchor of the best run-blocking o-line in the NFL from 2008-2009. Now, he's just the anchor of the best run-offense in the NFL. It was a disaster (for the team, not so much him) in the year in the middle, but he kept Cam Newton's backside clean for most of the year, and remains one of the most consistent blockers in the NFL.
109.) Antonio Gates (TE - SD)
May we finally be witnessing the decline of Antonio Gates? In reality, health has been his biggest issue (an injury ended what had been up to that point a historically good 2010 season), but Gates wasn't as explosive in 2011. Phil Rivers needs his TE with Vincent Jackson now out of town.
108.) AJ Green (WR - CIN)
AJ Green was #19 in DVOA and #9 in DYAR as a rookie, on a team with no real above average receiver other than himself (and TE Jermaine Gresham) with a rookie QB throwing him the ball. That spells a future star of this league. To me, the most impressive part of Green's superb rookie season was his 57% catch rate when his diet included many intermediate and deep passes. He's a special player embarking on what is hopefully a long career.
107.) Elvis Dumervil (DE - DEN)
10 sacks, 15 hurries and top-20 production against the run, and that adds up for another productive season for Elvis. He may never approach the 17 sacks he had in 2009, but this is his third season in double digits over his last four. At 28, he is smack in the middle of his peak. The best news: he's about to face a lot more pass attempts with a Manning-led offense.
106.) Jerod Mayo (ILB - NE)
Jerod Mayo might be the exact opposite of Tedy Bruschi. Mayo's a solid player. Totally sure-tackling. Always good in run support. Yet, he never seems to make those huge plays that Bruschi used to . Then again, back in 2001-2003, when the offense got to 24 on a good day, those big plays were more necessary. Now, the defense just can't screw up, and Mayo is awesome at doing that.
105.) Calais Campbell (DE - ARZ)
Calais Campbell racked up 28 defeats, and led the Cardinals in sacks again. He had 15 hurries, and improved against the run. All told, the man may have reached his peak, but at 27, that peak is still extremely valuable and here for another 3-4 years at least. Campbell is doing a good job of replacing the production that is decreasing from Darnell Dockett.
104.) JJ Watt (DE - HOU)
That pick-6 to change the course of the AFC Wild Card game was no fluke. Him dominating Michael Oher and Ben Grubbs the next week wasn't either. Everything this new Texans defense does is built around Smith adn Watt being able to hold the edge and let those cannons behind them fly, and Watt was incredible at it as a rookie.
103.) Ray Rice (RB - BAL)
Ray Rice gets thrown to a lot. Man, Flacco is a QB that understands what "checkdown" means. That said, for the first time, Ray Rice was not only a good volume receiver, but an incredibly effective one (29.5% DVOA as a receiver). His running improved in 2011 from a lull in 2010, and with a new contract, he should be one happy littly Ray.
102.) Devin Hester (WR - CHI)
Reports are that with Marshall in toe and Knox out, Hester may get some slot and deep threat duties. Fine. He'll never be anything more than an average receiver. But man, does Devin Hester continue to be a monster in the return game. He had his first KO TD since 2007, and had his 2nd best punt return average of his career. It is time to just admit that this is no longer a fluke. That Devin Hester has returned, and he is once again the NFL's best special teams player.
101.) Tony Romo (QB - DAL)
Tony Romo may be the QB that is most disparately viewed across the NFL. Some view him as one of the best QBs in that class behind Rodgers, Brady, Brees and (healthy) Peyton. Some view him as a stat-padder who can't perform in the clutch. In reality, it is somewhere in the middle. Statistically, in volume, rate and advanced stats, he's constantly somewhere between 5-10th. He'll never really crack that top group, but he's unlikely to get much worse anytime soon. He may never win another playoff game, but that doesn't make his career any worse than what it is: solid performance over a 5-7 years. Here is a good description: Tony Romo is by far the best current QB who will never be a Hall of Famer. That isn't such a bad title to have.
*BTW, big shout-out to Football Outsiders (FO), my favorite independent football site on the web. I used a lot of their numbers in my justifications. Mostly, DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average), DYAR (defense-adjusted yards above replacement) Success Rate (how many plays a defender achieves success on), stop rate (the rate a defender makes stops), Defeats (any big play made by a defender) ypa allowed (yards per pass allowed by a defender), and more. Their stuff is great, and without them, I would never know how good Alteraun Verner is, for example. I wouldn't know a whole lot of other stuff as well*
150.) Jabaal Sheard (DE - CLE)
8.5 sacks and 18 hurries as a rookie for a team that didn't face too many passes given their stagnant offense? That is a recipe for a quiet, but extremely effective player. Sheard also didn't slow down as the season wore on, another sign that he can be quite special.
149.) Jonathan Goodwin (C - SF)
How about this for a good season? Goodwin leaves the place where he made his name with 5 highly effective seasons in New Orleans, and then goes to the 49ers to be the elder statesman in a line for a 13-3 team. Goodwin was the best pass-blocker the 49ers had on that line last season.
148.) Jonathan Stewart (RB - CAR)
Pity for Stewart and Williams. As long as they reside in Carolina, their rushing TD opportunities are going to be swallowed up by each other and more importantly Cam Newton. But there is a positive, gaping holes that allowed Stewart to pound his way to 762 highly efficient (24% DVOA) yards at 5.4 a clip.
147.) Carson Palmer (QB - OAK)
Discounting Carson Palmer's first two games where he was understandably rusty, he started the last 8 games for the Raiders. Other than throwing 10 interceptions (4 of them against the 15-1 Packers), Palmer threw for 2,300 yards at 8.5 ypa, with a 63.2 cmp%. Not too bad, given the injuries around him. Worth a 1st and a 2nd? No. Worth acquiring in a vacuum? You bet.
146.) Fred Davis (TE - WAS)
Again, in a league with some historically-productive TE seasons, Davis's 65/800/7 type season can get lost, but given his improvement as a blocker, and the fact that he'll be playing with what we all assume is a better QB, his value might be realized.
145.) Stephen Tulloch (OLB - DET)
The Lions have very little experience and skill in their defensive back-7, and the little they do have resides in Stephen Tulloch.The former Titans standout was excellent against the pass once again, and although he's not the run defender he used to be, he can be used as a great zone defender for the numerous slot/TEs the Lions will face.
144.) Patrick Peterson (CB - ARZ)
How good is he as a corner? Who knows. Rookie corners are rarely finished things (and those that seem to be - McCourty - might not), but Peterson's value may lie with him being the first person since Devin Hester to really affect a team with his return abilities. I certainly got "Devin Hester... You are RIDICULOUS" flashbacks throughout 2011.
143.) Earl Thomas (S - SEA)
Earl Thomas had one of the better rookie seasons for a safety in years in 2010. His overall play dipped slightly, but he still showed all the promise of a future all-pro. He was a sure-tackling, success-rate machine once again in 2010, and while his interception numbers dropped, his coverage numbers bettered.
142.) Adrian Wilson (S - ARZ)
He's here on reputation. Seeing the slow decline of Adrian Wilson is sad, but he still remains a vocal leader and sound player. His aggresiveness against the run has begun to lessen, but Wilson has remained just as valuable in coverage.
141.) Kevin Williams (DT - MIN)
Talk about another player here on merit. The guy who quietly built a great hall-of-fame worthy career is still pounding away at opposing guards and centers. He's just 32, and still productive (with 5.5 sacks and 13 hurries last year), but Williams now has to face a lot more double-teams with the other half gone.
140.) John Abraham (DE - ATL)
9.5 more sacks (and 35! more hurries) and John Abraham continues his Adrian Wilson-of-DEs type career one more year. He totally outplayed the ballyhooed FA signing Ray Edwards, and is still a key focus for any opposing D-Line. At 34, he's nearing the end of usual productivity for DEs.
139.) Max Starks (G - PIT)
After being the only Steelers o-lineman to stay healthy from 2006-2009, Starks has played just 20 games over the past two seasons. Still, he might be coming off of his best season when he was on the field, dominating opposing LEs. Roethlisberger's protection plummeted with Starks gone.
138.) Dez Bryant (WR - DAL)
As of this writing, Dez Bryant has just been arrested for allegedly attacking his mother. It is likely he will be suspended, and it is likely he is every bit the headache that made him fall on draft day. That said, he improved in every area as a sophomore, and if he can avoid trouble, can continue to replace the slip in production from Witten and Miles Austin.
137.) Lawrence Timmons (ILB - PIT)
Timmons play slipped from 2010, but without Harrison and Woodley, teams could hone in on stopping him. He was still rock-solid against the run, but Timmons was used less as a blitzer in 2011. The biggest plus for Timmons is that he has been highly durable and dependable at a position with injury and age concerns for the Steelers.
136.) Ryan Kerrigan (OLB - WAS)
By FOs stats, Ryan Kerrigan was the #1 OLB in all of football playing the run (in success rate and yards allowed). He also chipped in 28 hurries and 7.5 sacks). He's dynamite, and is, I believe, the 3rd highest rated rookie defender. The gap isn't that big between him and the other two, though, as most would think.
135.) DeSean Jackson (WR - PHI)
Jackson had his second straight decent season (which was a step down, remind you, from 2009), but he says he's finally happy and on-board with a new contract. Fine. His catch rate improved back above 50% in 2011, but that belied the fact that he was catching fewer bombs and more developed, shorter routes. That may not be a bad thing.
134.) Julio Jones (WR - ATL)
Atlanta was criticized for trading a truckload for Julio Jones, but it is hard to say that the player didn't disappoint. 54/959/7 in 13 games (17.8 ypc). Those are numbers of a deep-threat, which is exactly what Julio Jones was advertised as. If he keeps improving, no one will remember what Atlanta gave up for that trade.
133.) D'Brickshaw Ferguson (LT - NY)
D'Brick's level dropped a bit from his lofty 2010 (something that can be said about almost every Jet, really), but he was still the 2nd best o-lineman the Jets had. His pass protection fell a bit more than his run-blocking, but some of that may be Sanchez's lack of pocket-presence.
132.) Daryl Smith (MLB - JAX)
Daryl Smith led the NFL in 'Defeats' in 2010. He still had over 20 (down from 38), and was still a top-10 player against the run at MLB, but chances are 2010 was a fluke. 2011 wasn't, and Smith should continue to be a sturdy member of a really underrated defense.
131.) Vontae Davis (CB - MIA)
Needless to say, after another season of better production, Vontae Smith has ended all debate about if he's better than Sean Smith. Sadly, he's not similarly better than a handful of other CBs, which looked like it could be a future possibility a couple of seasons ago. Davis has, though, turned into one of the best run-stopping corners in the NFL.
130.) Marques Colston (WR - NO)
With more options, Colston was targeted 25 fewer times in 2011, but had a career high 75% catch rate. He's been about as consistent as any WR since entering the league in 2006, and although he's not a dynamic player that could exceed outside of the NO offense, he's integral to the success of it.
129.) Aaron Hernandez (TE - NE)
This might seem low, but to me, Aaron Hernandez wouldn't be nearly the producer he is without Gronk and Welker making him option #3. Hernandez is far more elusive than I ever though, but unlike those two, he can be covered.
128.) Brent Grimes (CB - ATL)
Brent Grimes was the #3 and #2 in FOs success rate and ypp allowed. Now, this was out-of-line from his usual good production, so it might be a fluke. It will be interesting to see what he does with more targets now that Samuel (#4 and #a in those) is across from him. If he holds up, this could be the NFL's best corner tandem.
127.) Fred Jackson (RB - BUF)
Jackson was having his best season (5.5 ypc, dangerous as ever as a receiver) before he got hurt. Fully healthy, Jackson can continue to be one of the best multi-purpose backs for cheap, holding off Spiller-time a couple more years. The only issue is with sojourns in Canada, Fred Jackson is already 31.
126.) Joe Haden (CB - CLE)
Haden was the opposite of Grimes, with his 2011 numbers falling from a great rookie campaign (by FOs numbers, his performance as a rookie was better than McCourty). Haden still had 18 passes defended, which is a better indicator than his '0' interceptions of his future value.
125.) Joe Flacco (QB - BAL)
Oh the odd lives the QB class of 2008 leads. For years, Flacco and Ryan have traded off the title of the best QB from that class (Ryan's in 2008, 2010, Flacco in 2009, 2011). I have no idea who I would rather have. Flacco is nowhere near as bad as he can look at times, and he's become really good at limiting turnovers, which for now is half the battle with the defense he has behind him.
124.) Anquan Boldin (WR - BAL)
His last few years in Baltimore, Bolding was used primarily on shorter routes, but in Baltimore he's ironically gone deeper. His ypc rose again in 2011, as his chemistry with Flacco improved. Boldin has been both durable and consistent, but with the big 30 having passed, it is time to start wondering about decline.
123.) Matt Ryan (QB - ATL)
Matt Ryan's stats were basically the same in 2011 as they were in 2010. The one difference was he stopped putting together last-minute drives which he did incredibly well in 2010. Both years are flukes at the opposite end. Matt Ryan might take a jump again with the continued maturation of Julio Jones. Back in 2008, people were envisioning Matt Ryan being a top-4 QB. Now, he's not a top-4 QB whose name starts with 'R', but that doesn't mean he isn't able to win a playoff game.
122.) Cliff Avril (DE - DET)
Cliff Avril is by far the pure-pass rusher of Detroit's feared front, but that doesn't make him any less valuable. 11 sacks and 25 hurries, which marks the 2nd straight year he has been 8+ and 20+ in those two stats. His run play can improve, but as a pass rusher, he's about as good as any in that second tier.
121.) Sean Lee (ILB - DAL)
How do you get 23 defeats when you don't have any sacks and few tackles for loss? Be a really good cover linebacker. Sean Lee might be the most ball-hawking cover linebacker, and his cover skills took a step up from 2010 (when they were already good). The Dallas defense has lost a lot over the past couple years, but uncovering Lee has been a huge boon.
120.) DeAngelo Williams (RB - CAR)
Football Outsiders notes that DeAngelo Williams is three carries away from becoming the third RB in NFL history to have over 1,000 carries with a 5.0+ ypr. That isn't skewed either, with four of his six seasons crossing the 5.0 threshold. He's not the workhorse back he was in 2008-09, but he might be just as efficient (#3 in RB DVOA), and is in a perfect offense for his skills.
119.) Ike Taylor (CB - PIT)
Ike Taylor has been the Steelers best corner since about 2004. He's had a surprisingly long, successful career for someone never mentioned among the best in the NFL at his position. So far, he had one truly outstanding season (2008), but in 2011, he was #16 and #6 in Success rate and ypp allowed, as LeBeau asked him to play more man. Ike did it quite well.
118.) Scott Wells (C - STL)
Hopefully, his move to STL doesn't come with the same depreciation in his skills that Harvey Dahl's move to STL did a year ago. The only red flag from the rock-solid Scott Wells that I can think of his that the Packers chose 39-year-old Jeff Saturday over him, but even the best organizations make mistakes. Wells might be one of Thompson's few.
117.) Connor Barwin (OLB - HOU)
Connor Barwin's contract is up this year. My gut feeling is that assuming Wade Philips or his 3-4 defense is around come 2013, the Texans will do whatever it takes to make sure Barwin is there with them. He was unleashed in the DeMarcus Ware role in 2011, with 11.5 sacks and 26 hurries. He'll never have Ware-like production, but he might do what another Wade OLB did in his prime, and emulate Shuan Phillips instead.
116.) LaMarr Houston (DT - OAK)
LaMarr Houston had just one sack, which seems to be a step-down from a highly productive rookie season, but hidden behind those numbers were 21 hurries and being the player who drew the 2nd most offensive holding calls. He was still every bit the disruptive force he was as a rookie, learning loads under the wing of Richard Seymour.
115.) Marshawn Lynch (RB - SEA)
Beast Mode got a DUI recently, and as a repeat offender he might have to sit out a game or three. Not to worry, since he basically sat out the first 6 games last year, then turned it on and was incredible down the stretch for one of the NFL's friskiest teams. Lynch has become far more successful as a physical, bruising runner than I would have ever imagined.
114.) Chris Myers (C - HOU)
There is a reason that the Texans, the best breeding ground for lineman in the NFL these days, chose to keep Chris Myers over Eric Winston. Probably because he's a center, a harder position to fill. Myers was excellent again in 2011, and will be counted on to keep that level of play with Winston and Monty Briesel gone.
113.) Brandon Pettigrew (TE - DET)
Pettigrew might be somewhat overrated by conventional stats. His high volume numbers are mostly due to him being one of the few dependable targets for Stafford to throw to when Calvin Johnson is triple-covered. That said, his blocking is definitely underrated. He's about as complete as a TE will get (again, other than those three monsters still to come).
112.) Vincent Jackson (WR - TB)
Jackson was a DVOA star in 2009-2010, but although his volume stats remained constant in 2011, his catch rate dropped. Some of that might be Philip Rivers having an off year. No matter what the case, the Bucs and more importantly Josh Freeman, need a happy, healthy Vincent Jackson. He still remains one of the league's top two or three deep threats.
111.) Michael Vick (QB - PHI)
Injuries derailed Michael Vick as they always seem to do, but they derailed what was another really good season. There were reports of him going back to his old playground-style ways, and he definitely threw a more appropriate amount of interceptions, but when he was playing, he was essentially as valuable a player as he was in 2010.
110.) Jordan Gross (T - CAR)
Jordan Gross was the anchor of the best run-blocking o-line in the NFL from 2008-2009. Now, he's just the anchor of the best run-offense in the NFL. It was a disaster (for the team, not so much him) in the year in the middle, but he kept Cam Newton's backside clean for most of the year, and remains one of the most consistent blockers in the NFL.
109.) Antonio Gates (TE - SD)
May we finally be witnessing the decline of Antonio Gates? In reality, health has been his biggest issue (an injury ended what had been up to that point a historically good 2010 season), but Gates wasn't as explosive in 2011. Phil Rivers needs his TE with Vincent Jackson now out of town.
108.) AJ Green (WR - CIN)
AJ Green was #19 in DVOA and #9 in DYAR as a rookie, on a team with no real above average receiver other than himself (and TE Jermaine Gresham) with a rookie QB throwing him the ball. That spells a future star of this league. To me, the most impressive part of Green's superb rookie season was his 57% catch rate when his diet included many intermediate and deep passes. He's a special player embarking on what is hopefully a long career.
107.) Elvis Dumervil (DE - DEN)
10 sacks, 15 hurries and top-20 production against the run, and that adds up for another productive season for Elvis. He may never approach the 17 sacks he had in 2009, but this is his third season in double digits over his last four. At 28, he is smack in the middle of his peak. The best news: he's about to face a lot more pass attempts with a Manning-led offense.
106.) Jerod Mayo (ILB - NE)
Jerod Mayo might be the exact opposite of Tedy Bruschi. Mayo's a solid player. Totally sure-tackling. Always good in run support. Yet, he never seems to make those huge plays that Bruschi used to . Then again, back in 2001-2003, when the offense got to 24 on a good day, those big plays were more necessary. Now, the defense just can't screw up, and Mayo is awesome at doing that.
105.) Calais Campbell (DE - ARZ)
Calais Campbell racked up 28 defeats, and led the Cardinals in sacks again. He had 15 hurries, and improved against the run. All told, the man may have reached his peak, but at 27, that peak is still extremely valuable and here for another 3-4 years at least. Campbell is doing a good job of replacing the production that is decreasing from Darnell Dockett.
104.) JJ Watt (DE - HOU)
That pick-6 to change the course of the AFC Wild Card game was no fluke. Him dominating Michael Oher and Ben Grubbs the next week wasn't either. Everything this new Texans defense does is built around Smith adn Watt being able to hold the edge and let those cannons behind them fly, and Watt was incredible at it as a rookie.
103.) Ray Rice (RB - BAL)
Ray Rice gets thrown to a lot. Man, Flacco is a QB that understands what "checkdown" means. That said, for the first time, Ray Rice was not only a good volume receiver, but an incredibly effective one (29.5% DVOA as a receiver). His running improved in 2011 from a lull in 2010, and with a new contract, he should be one happy littly Ray.
102.) Devin Hester (WR - CHI)
Reports are that with Marshall in toe and Knox out, Hester may get some slot and deep threat duties. Fine. He'll never be anything more than an average receiver. But man, does Devin Hester continue to be a monster in the return game. He had his first KO TD since 2007, and had his 2nd best punt return average of his career. It is time to just admit that this is no longer a fluke. That Devin Hester has returned, and he is once again the NFL's best special teams player.
101.) Tony Romo (QB - DAL)
Tony Romo may be the QB that is most disparately viewed across the NFL. Some view him as one of the best QBs in that class behind Rodgers, Brady, Brees and (healthy) Peyton. Some view him as a stat-padder who can't perform in the clutch. In reality, it is somewhere in the middle. Statistically, in volume, rate and advanced stats, he's constantly somewhere between 5-10th. He'll never really crack that top group, but he's unlikely to get much worse anytime soon. He may never win another playoff game, but that doesn't make his career any worse than what it is: solid performance over a 5-7 years. Here is a good description: Tony Romo is by far the best current QB who will never be a Hall of Famer. That isn't such a bad title to have.
