Friday, July 13, 2012

NFL Top 200 for 2012: #200-151

For the third straight year, I will be counting down my personal Top 200 Players in the NFL. This ranking is completely subjective, built off of a completely subjective list of criteria, mixing recent performance (what they did in 2011 matters most, but 2009-2010 is still relevant), health, age, status and other random things that are unquantifiable. Unlike last year, I am not going through the exercise of listing all of the people that fell off of the list from 2011. First, that takes time, and second, I would rather not look back at all the hysterically wrong rankings I made a year ago. One note: this is not some trade value type column, or most valuable. For instance, Richard Sherman is ranked above Tony Romo. Would Dallas make that trade? Of course not. Is Sherman better at what he is asked to do than Romo? In my opinion he is. Anyway, let's get to the first 50.


*BTW, big shout-out to Football Outsiders (FO), my favorite independent football site on the web. I used a lot of their numbers in my justifications. Mostly, DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average), DYAR (defense-adjusted yards above replacement) Success Rate (how many plays a defender achieves success on), stop rate (the rate a defender makes stops), Defeats (any big play made by a defender) ypa allowed (yards per pass allowed by a defender), and more. Their stuff is great, and without them, I would never know how good Alteraun Verner is, for example. I wouldn't know a whole lot of other stuff as well*




200.) Denarius Moore (WR-OAK)

I just hope he doesn't get injured again. His chemistry with Carson Palmer was apparent from the beginning. His absence may have quietly been just as affecting as Darren McFadden's to the Raiders post-season chances in 2011. He may be Al Davis's last great draft pick.



199.) Brent Celek (TE-PHI)

In a world with Gronkowski's and Graham's it is easy to overlook the TE that puts up numbers that would have been pro-bowl good back in 2007. With my thinking that the ridiculous offensive numbers from 2011 will return back to something normal, Celek's constant 65/800/7 slash line might not look all that bad anymore.



198.) Deon Grant (SS-NYG)

I was stunned to realize that Deon Grant was a member of the 2003 Carolina Panthers. Guess eight years later he finally got his revenge on the Patriots in the Super Bowl. Grant was a key guy in slowing down TEs late in the season, from Keller and Witten to end the regular season, and yeoman's work on Gonzalez and Finley in the playoffs.



197.) Beanie Wells (RB-ARZ)

After a miserable year in 2010, Beanie Wells stayed healthy and productive. He's still not any sort of threat out of the backfield in the passing game (10 catches last year) but his production running behind a bad o-line was great. He got stronger as 2011 finished. 



196.) Tyvon Branch (SS-OAK)

He may be one of the most unknown run stopping safeties in the NFL. It might be favoritism, putting two Raiders this high, but there aren't that many good Raider defenders. Branch is one of them, though. He's solid against the run, and has bettered his coverage over the past two years.



195.) Jermichael Finley (TE-GB)

I think people were overexaggerating Finley's performance in 2009, justifying heightened expectations for him in 2011 after he missed most of 2010 (got all of that?). He didn't have a bad year, but did not show the same explosiveness post-ACL injury. One year removed he could get better, but his production may be marginalized with all the other targets.



194.) Kyle Williams (DT-BUF)

He's one of the first guys who missed most or all of 2011 that are on the list (again, it is a list that doesn't only look one year back). Kyle Williams was a dominant penetrator from a DT spot from 2008-2010. He was good in his limited time before getting hurt. With two other d-line-mates higher up, Williams may get more single blocks in 2012.



193.) Darryl Washington (LB-ARZ)

Daryl Washington had 30 "defeats", placing him in the top-5 for 2011. His run recognition is not great, but Washington is a lot better in coverage than most 3-4 ILB. He gets forgotten in a defense with quite a few other individual stars, but Washington's continued improvement is a key.



192.) Bernard Pollard (SS-BAL)

The Patriot Killer can probably blame that rap for overshadowing the fact that when he hasn't been injuring Patriots' stars, he's been a solid performer, first in Houston in 2009-2010 and last season in Baltimore. Pollard has really improved his coverage skills, and was great against TEs.



191.) Pat Angerer (MLB-IND)

Angerer was greatly improved in 2011, placing in the top-10 of FO's stats for defeats as well as LB success rate. He has a sense for plays and is always around the ball in a manner reniscient of old-Colts Mike Peterson. Great name, and becoming a pretty good player.



190.) Dennis Pitta (TE-BAL)

Late in 2011 he started to overtake Ed Dickson as the primary receiving TE in Baltimore, and by the end of the season, he had wrapped up that distinction. Pitta isn't all that fast, but much like predecessor Todd Heap, has great hands and runs good routes.



189.) Paul Pusluszny (OLB-JAX)

After many less-than seasons in Buffalo, Posluszny was one of the only of Jacksonville's major FA signings to really work out. He did tear his labrum late in 2011, but is expected back for the season. If he is, it will be interesting to see if 2011 was just a fluke, or a sign of someone figuring it all out.



188.) Roman Harper (SS-NO)

7.5 sacks. Roman Harper had more sacks than any safety in nearly a decade. Mad Blitzer Gregg Williams is gone, if you haven't heard, and new DC Steve Spagnuolo generally doesn't blitz safeties (he does with nickel corners), but with Harper's proficiency at it, that could easily change.



187.) Michael Johnson (DE-CIN)

Michael Johnson hasn't even reached the full potential that his freakish body contains. 7 sacks and 15 hurries in limited snaps is a good start. His play time might increase in 2012 and his production should as well.



186.) Robert Quinn (DE-STL)

He had 6 sacks and 15 hurries as mainly a pass-rush specialist for a team whose opponents ran a lot (what with St. Louis not scoring a lot of points and all). That is good production from a man who was coming off of a year without football. Look for him to improve even more in 2012.



185.) Tyson Alualu (DT-JAX)

His selection at #10 overall was much derided (mostly because it seemed like a reach), but big man has played even bigger since starting, being a dominant interior run defender. It would be good if he could be more of a presence against the pass though.



184.) Devin McCourty (DB-NE)

I thought about dropping him off of the list, but when BB moved him to safety the defense did improve. His true level at corner is probably somewhere between his overhyped rookie campaign and overcriticized sophomore slump. That said, Asante Samuel and Ty Law he is not.



183.) Alteraun Verner (CB-TEN)

I like my nickel corners. It was Joselio Hanson last year, and now Alteraun Verner this year. With Cortland Finnegan leaving it will be interesting to see how he does play outside, but against slot receivers Verner was great in 2011, being a top-10 CB in both success rate and ypa allowed.



182.) Todd McClure (C-ATL)

That o-line may have lost Harvey Dahl, but Todd McClure raised his level in 2011 to make up for it. He's been Matt Ryan's only center since he entered the league, and just like Jeff Saturday, the fact that they have created that relationship makes up for alot of the fact that McClure isn't that skilled in the traditional sense.



181.) Reggie Nelson (SS-CIN)

Good numbers against the pass and run (mid 20's in success rate and ypp allowed). 12 passes defended. That is just hte formula for a solid season by a player in his first year in a new system. There is a reason why Nelson was so sought after. Cincy retained him, and that was a wise move.



180.) Kenny Britt (WR-TEN)

I still don't know what he really is. When healthy, Britt's been explosive if inconsistent. When unhealthy, he's been... well... unhealthy. His numbers in his brief cameo in 2011 were good, but it will be interesting to see if he can really develop a rapport with Locker.



179.) Sebastian Vollmer (RT-NE)

He was overhyped when he was named a 2nd-team all-pro in 2010, but Vollmer's return late in 2011 really helped shore up that Patriots o-line. With Matt Light gone, Vollmer needs to step up (although he isn't Light's replacement at LT). His run-blocking can get better.



178.) Dustin Keller (TE-NYJ)

Just like Celek, Keller is a solid if unspectacular performer at TE. Unlike Celek, Keller has an innacurate QB throwing to him in run-heavy offense. Dustin Keller still puts up decent numbers, and seems to be the only target that is satisfied with the Sanchize right about now.



177.) Jonathan Fanene (DT-NE)

For once, the Patriots didn't go out and sign a 33-year-old defenisve player. They went and signed a 30 year old. That said, in his last two healthy seasons he picked up 12.5 sacks, and can be a valuable member of the 2012 Patriots d-line.



176.) Tony Gonzalez (TE-ATL)

Tony Gonzalez is becoming the NFL version of Mariano Rivera. I have no doubt in my mind that Gonzalez will catch 80 balls for 850 yards and 8 TDs come 2017. I also have no doubt that he will then tear his ACL kicking field goals in warmups.



175.) Sidney Rice (WR-SEA)

In his brief time playing over the past two seasons, Rice has still shown his explosiveness, his route running and his incredible big-play ability. The good news is that in 2011, his issues were more concussion related than physical maladies. The bad news is that is a problem too.



174.) Brice McCain (CB-HOU)

Hey, another nickel corner!! Brice McCain's numbers were slightly better than Verner, but unlike Verner he won't be going outside this season unless he beats out Kareem Jackson. To me, he should and he will. McCain was too good to not get a chance outside.



173.) Sean Witherspoon (OLB-ATL)

He's replaced Curtis Lofton as the best linebacker the Falcons have. Great in coverage, good against the run, Witherspoon is solid across the board. However, like many of the Falcons, he doesn't have that level he can reach to take his game to the next level.



172.) Michael Boley (MLB-NYG)

He may have been the biggest key to the Giants defensive turnaround in 2011. Boley was great covering TEs throughout the year. He was given the assignment of Aaron Hernandez straight-up and did a passable job. He was the leader of that defense, and the Giants are hoping he doesn't get hurt again.



171.) Antonio Garay (DT-SD)

Another solid year by Garay holding down the middle of a defense that is losing the parts around him constantly. Garay isn't ever going to rack up huge sack numbers, or even pressures, especially now that the DEs around him aren't good enough to avoid Garay being double-teamed constantly.



170.) Alex Smith (QB-SF)

Quietly, Alex Smith is quite a good deep-ball thrower, which could work well with Randy Moss and Mario Mannigham in the fold. Smith is also a good threat running and throwing on the run. The only problem is that his consistent accuracy is just not good enough.



169.) Ben Grubbs (G-NO)

Is he Carl Nicks? No. Is he about as good as anyone the Saints could have gotten? Yes. Grubbs is not nearly as good as Nicks was at pass blocking (just watch Vince Wilfork abuse him in the AFC Title Game), but his run-blocking is solid.



168.) Stanford Routt (CB-KC)

He didn't come close to replacing Nnamdi, but he probably can adequately replace Brandon Carr. Stanford Routt is great in coverage, but commits a lot of penalties which is an issue. Stanford Routt will not get beat, but will give up free yardage.



167.) Jason Witten (TE-DAL)

The slow decline of Jason Witten continues. His yards per reception increased since but he put up his lowest yards per game since 2006. Witten also became less of a touchdown threat in the end zone. Other than Tony Gonzalez TEs usually peak around 30. He's still good, but Witten is just part of a aging regime in Dallas.



166.) Reggie Bush (RB-MIA)

Reggie Bush had his best season of his career. Period. Put up 5.0 yards per carry over a career-high 216 carries. His receiving numbers went down, but that will happen when going from Drew Brees and Sean Payton to Chad Henne/Matt Moore and Tony Sparano.



165.) Red Bryant (DT-SEA)

Big Boy Red Bryant was finally healthy and finally active for the Seahawks. Red Bryant has become one of the better 4-3 DTs in the NFL, drawing tons of double teams. Red Bryant's new 5-year deal means he will be a monster in the middle for a while.



164.) Charles Tillman (CB-CHI)

Great year for Charles Tillman, and in coincided with the Bears using more man concepts than normal in 2011. Charles Tillman is still not fast enough to play great man coverage, but is still one of the strongest run-stopping corners in the NFL.



163.) Antonio Smith (DE - HOU)


In a defense that is loaded with young talent, Smith might have the most important role in being a large contributor in replacing the value of Mario Williams. Smith excelled at that in 2011 with 33 hurries. His play against the run was absolutely stellar. He's quietly fulfilled every penny of that contract he received before 2009.



162.) Jarrett Johnson (OLB-SD)

After a long career in Baltimore, Jarrett Johnson joins a long line of linebackers leaving the cuddly confines of Ray Lewis's corp. Being younger, he should outperform Bart Scott, Adalius Thomas, Peter Boulware and Jamie Sharper in his post-Ravens career.



161.) Chad Greenway (OLB-MIN)

Chad Greenway had an incredible 2010 season, and while his play dropped (which is to be expected for a LB who was 29 coming off of a career season). He still had 21 defeats and solid play against both the run and pass. One of the few remaining non-stars from the 2008-09 Vikings.



160.) Chris Gamble (CB-CAR)

Gamble had a very good 2009, then an awful 2010 and then an exceptional 2011. What is the true Chris Gamble? Nobody knows. The Panthers don't even know. It is probably somewhere in the middle, but they need a big year from Gamble if they want that defense to improve.



159.) Andy Dalton (QB-CIN)

Well, I guess that whole story about red-haired QBs being successful seems a little silly right about now. Dalton was overhyped, like many "winners" are as rookie QBs (Sanchez, Flacco), but his completion percentage over 60% is a good sign going forward. So is having AJ Green.



158.) Mathias Kiwanuka (OLB-NYG)

Mathias Kiwanuka has never gotten the chance to become the next great Giants defensive end, but instead he has become a really valuable outside linebacker, good in coverage, good at blitzing. Kiwanuka still has the size to move down if needed due to injuries, but the Giants probably hope that that situation never comes to light.



157.) Santonio Holmes (WR-NYJ)

The Disgruntled one had a pretty tumultuous season, but he is still a good player, with good hands, good route running and dynamic ability. He suffers from having a purely average QB, but I can't see him having a worse season in 2012 than he had in 2011.



156.) Antoine Bethea (FS-IND)

Bethea is the last remnant of what was once a really good secondary (gave up just 6 passing TDs in 2008). He's still a great cover safety, but isn't as fast and agile as he once was. Instintively, Bethea is still about as good as they come at FS though.



155.) Maurkice Pouncey (C-PIT)

Pouncey is still a little overrated, but his play in 2011 was more true to the praise he earned as a rookie in 2011. The Steelers are quietly building a good o-line for once, and Pouncey is the centerpiece of that effort.



154.) Harvey Dahl (G-STL)

One year after proclaiming him to be the best guard in the NFL, Dahl went to that wasteland in St. Louis and the sheen wore off, a lot. He's still good, but blocking for Sam Bradford is not the same as Matt Ryan. Dahl also had some nagging injury issues that could be a concern.



153.) Chris Kuper (G-DEN)

The most underrated part of Manning's decision to go the Denver is the fact that he will be playing with his best o-line since 2006. Chris Kuper is part of that, as he is miles better than any guard Manning has played with since the days of Jake Scott. It is going to be fun watching Manning actually have time.



152.) Marcel Dareus (DT-BUF)

There was a reason Marcel Dareus was the #3 pick. Because he is extremely good. Dareus got better as the year wore on. He started facing double teams with Kyle Williams out, but it will be fun to see what defensive coordinators with both of them at full strength.



151.) Darren Sproles (RB-SD)

Let's not immediately forget how scary Sproles was in San Diego. This wasn't a coming-out party as much as it was an extremely, uniquely gifted player marrying himself to the perfect offense. Sproles probably won't have THAT good of a rushing season, but he can continue to be great in that offense as a receiver.


Up next, #150-101.

About Me

I am a man who will go by the moniker dmstorm22, or StormyD, but not really StormyD. I'll talk about sports, mainly football, sometimes TV, sometimes other random things, sometimes even bring out some lists (a lot, lot, lot of lists). Enjoy.