Continuing my projection of what current NFL player will get into the HOF, and how likely they will get there, here is the defense.
Quick reminder, the Tiers are basically barometers of where they are in their careers in relation to the HOF. The 1st-Tier is for guys that are slam-dunk 1st ballot HOFers. These guys are all the best in their position over a long period of time (think Bruce Smith, Ronnie Lott). The 2nd Tier is for guys who have been in the league long enough that if they retire today (or in the next couple of years with similar production) are likely HOFers, but probably guys that wouldn't be first-ballot (think Chris Doleman, eventually Michael Strahan). The 3rd Tier is for guys that are about 3-7 seasons into their career and have a chance if they continue at their current pace for another 5+ years. The 4th Tier is for players in years 1-3 of their career who started out great and could get there.
4-3 DE/3-4 OLB
1st Tier: Nobody
2nd Tier: Dwight Freeney (Colts), Jared Allen (Chiefs, Vikings), and Julius Peppers (Panthers, Bears)
These have been the best three DEs in the NFL over the past 7 years. It might be a racial thing, but the common idea is Jared Allen has a great motor and never gives up on plays, while Freeney doesn't play the run well and Julius Peppers takes games off. Anyway, none of that is totally true, but I think people expect more from Freeney and Peppers. Peppers was criticized all the time for taking games off, for not being dominant enough. Well, save for one lousy season, Peppers has been money. Freeney is better against the run than most thing. Allen is arguably the best of the three. They all have over 100 sacks and many pro bowls and all-pro's (7/3 for Freeney, 4/4 for Allen and 6/3 for Peppers). Usually, 130 sacks is a minimum, and they should all get there in their careers (105 for Allen, 102.5 for Freeney and 100 for Peppers and their ages are 30, 32 and 32 respectively). Pass rushers age well so they should at least have three to four more productive years. The consistency of all three is astounding, and they should all find their way to Canton.
3rd Tier: Nobody
4th Tier: Jason Pierre-Paul (Giants)
It might be a little of a stretch to project someone after just two seasons, but hell if I've seen a more raw-talented DE as Pierre-Paul. He still doesn't have the technique and experience that he will have as he gets older, and can learn from two good DEs (Justin Tuck and Osi). Pierre-Paul already has a first-team all-pro nod, and a 16.5 sack season. At just 23, he has at least another 10 years (if healthy) of great production to come. Jason Pierre-Paul also has other features apart from just sacks that aren't as important in a statistical sense, but help with the story. He's great at batting down husbands and even blocking field goals. Jason Pierre-Paul has a good team around him, and should continue to stay in the spot-light.
3-4 DL/4-3 DT
1st Tier: Nobody
2nd Tier: Vince Wilfork (Patriots), Richard Seymour (Patriots, Raiders), Kevin Williams (Vikings)
Vince Wilfork is just 31, although it feels like he's been around forever. He's been the centerpiece of the defense of the winningest franchise during his career. What separates him from the other old Patriots defensive stalwarts (Law, Bruschi, Vrabel, McGinest - Law probably is the only one with a chance) is that he's the link between that defense and the current defense. He's been one of the best NT for years now. He's never been a first-team all-pro, but four times been voted to the 2nd team. Seymour was Bill Belichick's first draft pick in 2001, and he was the best defensive player for a defensive-based team that won three Super Bowls. He's continued his success in Oakland, going to two more pro-bowls, including 15 more sacks at DT. Seymour's been the best 3-4 DE in the NFL at one point, and a close to dominant 4-3 DT. The 7 pro-bowls and 3 all-pro selections are more proof of his valued contribution. As for Kevin Williams, he just might be the most underrated defensive lineman over the past 10 years in terms of his historical standing. Kevin Williams has been selected to the all-pro team 5 times. He's missed just 4 games in his career, and got 54.5 career sacks playing all of his snaps inside. He's not Warren Sapp, but he's the best 4-3 DT since Sapp retired. At least one half of the most dominant pairs of DTs of the last decade should be in the Hall of Fame.
3rd Tier: Haloti Ngata (Ravens)
He's the most unblockable force in the NFL right now, the best 3-4 DE over the past five years (taking that mantle from Seymour) and he's possibly getting better. He's been named all-pro each of the last two years (2nd team the two years before that), with at least 5 sacks in each year. He gets double-teamed constantly and still gets pressure up the gut. Ngata is now the most important player of a defensive dynasty in Baltimore, and he's playing it well. Haloti never gets hurt, and is amazingly only just 28 years old. He still has five years of quality production left in him.
4th Tier: Ndamukong Suh (Lions)
It is hard to deny that Ndamukong Suh did not have the same impact as a second year player as he did in his historically good rookie campaign (led the NFL in sacks for a tackle with 10). I think his rookie form is closer to his real production. Ndamukong was still a matchup nightmare. All it was is that he didn't get to the quarterback. Guards have learned his basic move and strength, but as Suh adapts and grows as a talent, he should only get better. The fact that he plays for a team that is going to be good for a long time with Stafford and Johnson, so Suh should get a lot of exposure.
3-4 OLB
1st Tier: Nobody
2nd Tier: DeMarcus Ware (Cowboys)
DeMarcus Ware could produce at a pace half of his current one for the next five years and still make the Hall of Fame. There has not been a more dominant pass-rusher since Ware entered the league. 99.5 sacks in seven seasons (112 games). DeMarcus has never missed a game, and he's only once not recorded double digit sacks, and that was his rookie season. Six pro-bowls and four all-pro nods later (including seasons of 14.0, 20.0, 15.5 and 19.5 sacks) he's undoubtedly the best edge pass-rusher year after year in the NFL. Somehow he's never won Defensive Player of the Year (losing to James Harrison and Terrell Suggs in his 20 and 19.5 sack seasons) but that won't keep him out of the HOF.
3rd Tier: Terrell Suggs (Ravens), LaMarr Woodley (Steelers)
Quick note about the guy that is not on the list. James Harrison has had five great seasons (2007-2011) but his late start will kill his chances of putting up the career numbers necessary to get included. The two other great AFC North pass rushers have better chances. Suggs is closer, since he has had more consistent production, going to four more pro bowls (5 to 1) than Woodley and being just two years older. Suggs will finally be 30 next season, and already has 82.5 sacks and has had his best two seasons over the past two years. He's playing like he is just in his prime. Woodley is 28, so he has more time. This is a more tenuous prediction, but if he stayed healthy in 2011, he would have four straight double-digit sack seasons. The one-pro bowl is little, but I think he might be starting a string of them. There's a reason why the AFC North has such great defenses and these two are a large reason why.
4th Tier: Aldon Smith (49ers), Clay Matthews (Packers)
Now I'm getting ridiculous, predicting a rookie to get into the HOF, but Aldon Smith was special. He has an unending motor and is a player who will only get better on one of the best d-lines in football. 14 sacks as a rookie is a great start. The most special part of Aldon Smith's season was that he got better as the year went on. Clay Matthews had his first average year, with just 6.0 sacks (he did drop into coverage more, with three interceptions along the way) but still got another pro-bowl selection. Those are important in a way. If you can just rack up pro-bowl after pro-bowl, it might outweigh having stats that aren't worthy. Another thing for Clay is that his family ties with HOF Uncle Bruce might get him pushed in.
4-3 LB/3-4 ILB
1st Tier: Ray Lewis (Ravens)
He was the second highest ranking active player on the NFL Networks Top 100 Greatest Players of All Time countdown before the 2010 season, ranking at #18 (the only active player ranked higher was that guy that wears #18). It probably is safe to say that his actual production and his perceived ability are finally meshed. No one really thinks of him as a truly great player currently, but still definitely an effective one. That said, a 13-time pro-bowler and 7-time All-Pro, with two Defensive Player of the Year awards (2000, 2003) probably doesn't need to prove anything anymore.
2nd Tier: Patrick Willis (49ers), Brian Urlacher (Bears), Lance Briggs (Bears)
I'll start with Willis who is the 2nd youngest Tier 2 player in my projections (a couple months older than Adrian Peterson). Do I honestly think that if he retires today he gets in? No, but I think other than the two people also in this tier, and Ray Lewis, he has the best case. At 27, he's already made four first-team All-Pro teams, and with nods each of the past three years, he's entrenched on that squad. With the 49ers finally getting good again, his exposure will only rise. As for the two Bears, I struggled with putting both on the list because having two teammates at the same position be HOF worthy seems like a stretch, but they really both have cases, especially Urlacher. Brian has the nods (8/4 pro-bowl/all-pro) as well as universal praise of being the best 4-3 MLB since Derrick Brooks. His selection to the All-Decade team makes him almost a shoo-in (as I said in the offense section, those guys almost always get in). He was the centerpiece of the NFC's best defense year-in, year-out of the 2000s. Lance Briggs will probably need many more years on the ballot than Urlacher will. Lance Briggs has a couple of things going for him. He's a pro-bowl player every year and he is known as the best 4-3 LB in pass coverage. He rarely misses games, and Briggs is only 31. Linebackers (especially ones that aren't 3-4 OLBs) have good age curves and can play pretty well into the mid-30's. I think Briggs definitely will be in the discussion come 2020.
3rd Tier: Nobody
4th Tier: Von Miller (Broncos)
It is hard to remember that Von Miller is neither a 4-3 DE or 3-4 OLB even though he was a pass-rush beast at times as a rookie. Until he hurt his wrist late in the year, Von Miller was the favorite for Defensive Rookie of the Year. He was picked for the 2nd team all-pro, which is important going forward because he can get into that 1st team club as early as next year. Von Miller will be interesting to watch going forward to see if he still rushes as much as he did last year from a 4-3 OLB position. Those guys aren't always consistent, but I think Von Miller will be special. Pass rushers do well in defenses paired with Manning offenses.
CB
1st Tier: Champ Bailey (Redskins, Broncos)
It is hard to remember just how good Champ Bailey was at times in the mid-2000s. He was for a 5-year stretch the best corner every year. With 11 pro-bowl selections in 13 seasons, Bailey has been among the best in the NFL in both conferences. Champ Bailey's 50 career interceptions, memorable playoff moment (which probably shouldn't matter, but definitely does) with his pick off of Brady. He has the 1st team All-Decade nod. Everything in the checklist is there. The only black mark I can think of is that Bailey was traded straight-up for Clinton Portis.
2nd Tier: Charles Woodson (Raiders, Packesr), Asante Samuel (Patriots, Eagles), Ronde Barber (Buccaneers), Nnamdi Asomugha (Raiders, Eagles)
In an era that is getting increasingly pass-heavy, corners are more important than ever, and I think that increased spotlight will in-turn increase the chances of more corners getting into the HOF. These four are all guys who at some moment were either the best or second best corner in the NFL. Woodson is an interesting case because I think his success in Green Bay has made people completely forget that when he left Oakland, he had an underwhelming career to date. That said, it is hard to point out that he left Oakland in their last semi-decent year (2005 - a lot better than the 2006-2009 Raiders) and then joined Green Bay who's defense immediately took off (there are other factors). He has the ring, the Defensive Player of the Year, three all-pro's, a 2nd team all-decade selection and 54 interceptions and counting. Al Davis can still draft corners. Somehow, Asante Samuel only has one first team all-pro selection, but I think that resume, heavily built on playoff moments, is good enough. Asante Samuel has four career pick-6's in the playoffs, which is the most all time. He has 9 career interceptions in the playoffs (tied with Ed Reed for most active). An underrated aspect of Asante's career is he is arguably better (at least in advanced stats - check out his numbers at Football Outsiders) as an Eagle. Corners also age well, so Asante still has time to get his resume more focused. Ronde Barber's consistency and longevity is absolutely astounding. 15 seasons. He missed 15 games in his rookie season, and missed exactly zero since. Other than 10 picks in 2001, he has between 2-5 in all but one season. That said, a 2nd team all-decade and 3 all-pro selections are good. As is his spot as one of the defensive stalwarts of the best defense in the early-2000s. Also, he has been a good citizen, and it would just be fun to see Ronde get in the HOF, after Tiki's arguable HOF-trending career ended because he retired for a definitely not HOF career as a reporter. As for Nnamdi, he will be a great litmus test to see if reputation can truly counter lack of counting stats. People know Nnamdi, from 2006-2010 was the best corner in the NFL (or at least second). People know no one threw at Nnamdi. However, after QBs learned that after 8 picks in 2006, Nnamdi has just 6 interceptions over the past five seasons. Nnamdi has the accolades with the all-pro nods, but I don't know if his career will just be flashy enough for him to get in.
3rd Tier: Darrelle Revis (Jets)
Darrelle Revis was close, for me, to going into Tier-2 like his 2007 draftmates Peterson and Willis, but I think there has been a slight down-tick in Revis love in 2011. There is no denying that in 2009, Darrelle Revis might have had the best season a corner has ever had, but many corners have one great year (Cortland Finnegan, for instance, was incredible in 2008). Revis does have three-straight first-team all-pro nods, so there is a legacy there, but I don't know where the career is going. If he continues what he has done over the past two seasons even (after the insane 2009) for four or five more years, he is in though.
4th Tier: Patrick Peterson (Cardinals)
I have no idea what my thinking is here. I don't really know if Peterson is any good as a corner. I do know, however, that Peterson is a great return man. For whatever reason, I think Peterson will become the great corner everyone thought he would become coming out of LSU. Peterson has boat-loads of talent. This has a chance to be my most wrong selection, but Tier-4 is the place for those fun picks.
S
1st Tier: Ed Reed (Ravens)
Ed Reed is the best safety I have ever seen. I have never understood the Ed Reed vs. Troy Polamalu argument because although they are safeties, when the argument really heated up (2008) they didn't play the same position. However, Ed Reed used to play SS. From 2002-2005, Ed Reed was a SS, and he was the best in the league at that position. He switched to FS in 2006, and guess what? Reed was the best in the league at that position too (I always think he should have won Defensive Player of the Year in 2008 over James Harrison - 9 picks, 3 fumble returns, 3 TDs). Ed Reed has 5 all-pros. He's led the league in interceptions three times (2004, 2008, 2010) including in a year he played just 10 games. Reed has 9 playoff interceptions in 11 games. Ed Reed is the best safety I have ever seen. He might be, after Ray Lewis, the biggest lock of any active player to be a 1st-ballot guy.
2nd Tier: Troy Polamalu (Steelers), Brian Dawkins (Eagles, Broncos)
Just like corners, safeties have become more prominent in the 2000s with the pass-heavy offenses in the NFL. Polamalu's only thing on Ed Reed is the rings. He's not Ed Reed. I doubt he's first ballot, but Polamalu is definitely a HOFer. Four 1st-team all-pro nods, as well as a 2010 Defensive Player of the Year. Polamalu's brilliance is probably better represented with anectodes and accolades than stats, but it definitely is worthy. Brian Dawkins tenure in Denver has been surprisingly good, but even without that three-year stint, he will be in. The longevity at that position is astounding. With 4 first-team all-pro nods and a 1st team all-decade. Dawkins ability as an all-around safety is in reality Polamalu-esque, with 37 career interceptions and 36 career forced fumbles as well as 26 sacks. Polamalu will never catch Dawkins in sacks or forced fumbles.
3rd Tier: Nick Collins (Packers)
Collins is probably a long shot, but he's on a better track than anyone else (not named those three above him, obviously). Collins doesn't have any 1st-team all-pro selections, but three 2nd-teams. If he comes back healthy, he could still have about five good years left, and maybe more if he has a Sharper-type late career. The 21 interceptions aren't a lot, but again, even averaging 5 over the next five years gives him 46 career, which is in line with other HOF safeties. Collins also gets the benefit of playing on a great team which will be competing for years.
4th Tier: Earl Thomas (Seahawks)
For a guy who will just be 23 in 2012, Earl Thomas is a star. Already a pro-bowler in 2011 (and in a conference lacking a lot of competition at safety), Thomas should be a fixture on that team for years. The Seahawks are a team on the rise, so his exposure should improve. He gets interceptions and plays good coverage. Thomas has a chance. Like any Tier-4 person, there is a chance injury plays a factor, but I think Thomas, if healthy, can get there.
Coaches
1st Tier: Bill Belichick (Patriots)
I don't want to really talk about how great of a coach Bill Belichick is (not that great of a GM, but coach? amazing). I don't think I need to. Unless there is some black-balling because of Spygate, Belichick is about as good of a 1st-ballot candidate as any coach since Bill Walsh or Joe Gibbs.
2nd Tier: Tom Coughlin (Giants), Mike Shanahan (Broncos, Redskins)
It is very interesting to contrast these two. Both have coached multiple teams. Shanahan's run in Washington hasn't been truly long enough to analyze, but a lot of it rests on RG3's success. Anyway, their careers records are close (Coughlin is 142-114 (.556) while Shanahan is 157-119 (.569)). Both have won their only two Super Bowl appearances, including memorable runs (the '98 Broncos were dominant but the '97 team was a wild-card team). Coughlin has had more success with his 'other' team (his 68-60 record with the Jags is great, moreso since they were an expansion team) as he made the AFC Title Game twice with the Jaguars, while Shanahan has yet to make the playoffs outside of Denver, but Shanahan's record with the main team is more impressive. Either way, other than Tom Flores, George Seifert and Jimmy Johnson, every coach with multiple rings is in, and these two will probably go in as well. They have the longevity and consistency that those three exceptions didn't have (though I maintain that Seifert should be in). One last similarity, they both are known for having faces that get really, really red.
3rd Tier: Mike Tomlin (Steelers)
Mike Tomlin has now finished five years as the Steelers coach, and what a five years it was. 55-25 record (three seasons of 12 wins), and two trips to the Super Bowl and one title. If his next five is even slightly worse than the first five (say 50-30 record with one Super Bowl appearance, but winning that one trip) he probably has the resume to get in. Tomlin does coach for an all-time franchise which helps, and one that is run so well it is hard to see Tomlin's Steelers teams ever having a multi-year run of mediocrity. I guess it could happen post-Roethlibserger, but by that time, Tomlin may already have the requisite success to get in.
4th Tier: Jim Harbuagh (49ers)
Quick reminder, the Tiers are basically barometers of where they are in their careers in relation to the HOF. The 1st-Tier is for guys that are slam-dunk 1st ballot HOFers. These guys are all the best in their position over a long period of time (think Bruce Smith, Ronnie Lott). The 2nd Tier is for guys who have been in the league long enough that if they retire today (or in the next couple of years with similar production) are likely HOFers, but probably guys that wouldn't be first-ballot (think Chris Doleman, eventually Michael Strahan). The 3rd Tier is for guys that are about 3-7 seasons into their career and have a chance if they continue at their current pace for another 5+ years. The 4th Tier is for players in years 1-3 of their career who started out great and could get there.
4-3 DE/3-4 OLB
1st Tier: Nobody
2nd Tier: Dwight Freeney (Colts), Jared Allen (Chiefs, Vikings), and Julius Peppers (Panthers, Bears)
These have been the best three DEs in the NFL over the past 7 years. It might be a racial thing, but the common idea is Jared Allen has a great motor and never gives up on plays, while Freeney doesn't play the run well and Julius Peppers takes games off. Anyway, none of that is totally true, but I think people expect more from Freeney and Peppers. Peppers was criticized all the time for taking games off, for not being dominant enough. Well, save for one lousy season, Peppers has been money. Freeney is better against the run than most thing. Allen is arguably the best of the three. They all have over 100 sacks and many pro bowls and all-pro's (7/3 for Freeney, 4/4 for Allen and 6/3 for Peppers). Usually, 130 sacks is a minimum, and they should all get there in their careers (105 for Allen, 102.5 for Freeney and 100 for Peppers and their ages are 30, 32 and 32 respectively). Pass rushers age well so they should at least have three to four more productive years. The consistency of all three is astounding, and they should all find their way to Canton.
3rd Tier: Nobody
4th Tier: Jason Pierre-Paul (Giants)
It might be a little of a stretch to project someone after just two seasons, but hell if I've seen a more raw-talented DE as Pierre-Paul. He still doesn't have the technique and experience that he will have as he gets older, and can learn from two good DEs (Justin Tuck and Osi). Pierre-Paul already has a first-team all-pro nod, and a 16.5 sack season. At just 23, he has at least another 10 years (if healthy) of great production to come. Jason Pierre-Paul also has other features apart from just sacks that aren't as important in a statistical sense, but help with the story. He's great at batting down husbands and even blocking field goals. Jason Pierre-Paul has a good team around him, and should continue to stay in the spot-light.
3-4 DL/4-3 DT
1st Tier: Nobody
2nd Tier: Vince Wilfork (Patriots), Richard Seymour (Patriots, Raiders), Kevin Williams (Vikings)
Vince Wilfork is just 31, although it feels like he's been around forever. He's been the centerpiece of the defense of the winningest franchise during his career. What separates him from the other old Patriots defensive stalwarts (Law, Bruschi, Vrabel, McGinest - Law probably is the only one with a chance) is that he's the link between that defense and the current defense. He's been one of the best NT for years now. He's never been a first-team all-pro, but four times been voted to the 2nd team. Seymour was Bill Belichick's first draft pick in 2001, and he was the best defensive player for a defensive-based team that won three Super Bowls. He's continued his success in Oakland, going to two more pro-bowls, including 15 more sacks at DT. Seymour's been the best 3-4 DE in the NFL at one point, and a close to dominant 4-3 DT. The 7 pro-bowls and 3 all-pro selections are more proof of his valued contribution. As for Kevin Williams, he just might be the most underrated defensive lineman over the past 10 years in terms of his historical standing. Kevin Williams has been selected to the all-pro team 5 times. He's missed just 4 games in his career, and got 54.5 career sacks playing all of his snaps inside. He's not Warren Sapp, but he's the best 4-3 DT since Sapp retired. At least one half of the most dominant pairs of DTs of the last decade should be in the Hall of Fame.
3rd Tier: Haloti Ngata (Ravens)
He's the most unblockable force in the NFL right now, the best 3-4 DE over the past five years (taking that mantle from Seymour) and he's possibly getting better. He's been named all-pro each of the last two years (2nd team the two years before that), with at least 5 sacks in each year. He gets double-teamed constantly and still gets pressure up the gut. Ngata is now the most important player of a defensive dynasty in Baltimore, and he's playing it well. Haloti never gets hurt, and is amazingly only just 28 years old. He still has five years of quality production left in him.
4th Tier: Ndamukong Suh (Lions)
It is hard to deny that Ndamukong Suh did not have the same impact as a second year player as he did in his historically good rookie campaign (led the NFL in sacks for a tackle with 10). I think his rookie form is closer to his real production. Ndamukong was still a matchup nightmare. All it was is that he didn't get to the quarterback. Guards have learned his basic move and strength, but as Suh adapts and grows as a talent, he should only get better. The fact that he plays for a team that is going to be good for a long time with Stafford and Johnson, so Suh should get a lot of exposure.
3-4 OLB
1st Tier: Nobody
2nd Tier: DeMarcus Ware (Cowboys)
DeMarcus Ware could produce at a pace half of his current one for the next five years and still make the Hall of Fame. There has not been a more dominant pass-rusher since Ware entered the league. 99.5 sacks in seven seasons (112 games). DeMarcus has never missed a game, and he's only once not recorded double digit sacks, and that was his rookie season. Six pro-bowls and four all-pro nods later (including seasons of 14.0, 20.0, 15.5 and 19.5 sacks) he's undoubtedly the best edge pass-rusher year after year in the NFL. Somehow he's never won Defensive Player of the Year (losing to James Harrison and Terrell Suggs in his 20 and 19.5 sack seasons) but that won't keep him out of the HOF.
3rd Tier: Terrell Suggs (Ravens), LaMarr Woodley (Steelers)
Quick note about the guy that is not on the list. James Harrison has had five great seasons (2007-2011) but his late start will kill his chances of putting up the career numbers necessary to get included. The two other great AFC North pass rushers have better chances. Suggs is closer, since he has had more consistent production, going to four more pro bowls (5 to 1) than Woodley and being just two years older. Suggs will finally be 30 next season, and already has 82.5 sacks and has had his best two seasons over the past two years. He's playing like he is just in his prime. Woodley is 28, so he has more time. This is a more tenuous prediction, but if he stayed healthy in 2011, he would have four straight double-digit sack seasons. The one-pro bowl is little, but I think he might be starting a string of them. There's a reason why the AFC North has such great defenses and these two are a large reason why.
4th Tier: Aldon Smith (49ers), Clay Matthews (Packers)
Now I'm getting ridiculous, predicting a rookie to get into the HOF, but Aldon Smith was special. He has an unending motor and is a player who will only get better on one of the best d-lines in football. 14 sacks as a rookie is a great start. The most special part of Aldon Smith's season was that he got better as the year went on. Clay Matthews had his first average year, with just 6.0 sacks (he did drop into coverage more, with three interceptions along the way) but still got another pro-bowl selection. Those are important in a way. If you can just rack up pro-bowl after pro-bowl, it might outweigh having stats that aren't worthy. Another thing for Clay is that his family ties with HOF Uncle Bruce might get him pushed in.
4-3 LB/3-4 ILB
1st Tier: Ray Lewis (Ravens)
He was the second highest ranking active player on the NFL Networks Top 100 Greatest Players of All Time countdown before the 2010 season, ranking at #18 (the only active player ranked higher was that guy that wears #18). It probably is safe to say that his actual production and his perceived ability are finally meshed. No one really thinks of him as a truly great player currently, but still definitely an effective one. That said, a 13-time pro-bowler and 7-time All-Pro, with two Defensive Player of the Year awards (2000, 2003) probably doesn't need to prove anything anymore.
2nd Tier: Patrick Willis (49ers), Brian Urlacher (Bears), Lance Briggs (Bears)
I'll start with Willis who is the 2nd youngest Tier 2 player in my projections (a couple months older than Adrian Peterson). Do I honestly think that if he retires today he gets in? No, but I think other than the two people also in this tier, and Ray Lewis, he has the best case. At 27, he's already made four first-team All-Pro teams, and with nods each of the past three years, he's entrenched on that squad. With the 49ers finally getting good again, his exposure will only rise. As for the two Bears, I struggled with putting both on the list because having two teammates at the same position be HOF worthy seems like a stretch, but they really both have cases, especially Urlacher. Brian has the nods (8/4 pro-bowl/all-pro) as well as universal praise of being the best 4-3 MLB since Derrick Brooks. His selection to the All-Decade team makes him almost a shoo-in (as I said in the offense section, those guys almost always get in). He was the centerpiece of the NFC's best defense year-in, year-out of the 2000s. Lance Briggs will probably need many more years on the ballot than Urlacher will. Lance Briggs has a couple of things going for him. He's a pro-bowl player every year and he is known as the best 4-3 LB in pass coverage. He rarely misses games, and Briggs is only 31. Linebackers (especially ones that aren't 3-4 OLBs) have good age curves and can play pretty well into the mid-30's. I think Briggs definitely will be in the discussion come 2020.
3rd Tier: Nobody
4th Tier: Von Miller (Broncos)
It is hard to remember that Von Miller is neither a 4-3 DE or 3-4 OLB even though he was a pass-rush beast at times as a rookie. Until he hurt his wrist late in the year, Von Miller was the favorite for Defensive Rookie of the Year. He was picked for the 2nd team all-pro, which is important going forward because he can get into that 1st team club as early as next year. Von Miller will be interesting to watch going forward to see if he still rushes as much as he did last year from a 4-3 OLB position. Those guys aren't always consistent, but I think Von Miller will be special. Pass rushers do well in defenses paired with Manning offenses.
CB
1st Tier: Champ Bailey (Redskins, Broncos)
It is hard to remember just how good Champ Bailey was at times in the mid-2000s. He was for a 5-year stretch the best corner every year. With 11 pro-bowl selections in 13 seasons, Bailey has been among the best in the NFL in both conferences. Champ Bailey's 50 career interceptions, memorable playoff moment (which probably shouldn't matter, but definitely does) with his pick off of Brady. He has the 1st team All-Decade nod. Everything in the checklist is there. The only black mark I can think of is that Bailey was traded straight-up for Clinton Portis.
2nd Tier: Charles Woodson (Raiders, Packesr), Asante Samuel (Patriots, Eagles), Ronde Barber (Buccaneers), Nnamdi Asomugha (Raiders, Eagles)
In an era that is getting increasingly pass-heavy, corners are more important than ever, and I think that increased spotlight will in-turn increase the chances of more corners getting into the HOF. These four are all guys who at some moment were either the best or second best corner in the NFL. Woodson is an interesting case because I think his success in Green Bay has made people completely forget that when he left Oakland, he had an underwhelming career to date. That said, it is hard to point out that he left Oakland in their last semi-decent year (2005 - a lot better than the 2006-2009 Raiders) and then joined Green Bay who's defense immediately took off (there are other factors). He has the ring, the Defensive Player of the Year, three all-pro's, a 2nd team all-decade selection and 54 interceptions and counting. Al Davis can still draft corners. Somehow, Asante Samuel only has one first team all-pro selection, but I think that resume, heavily built on playoff moments, is good enough. Asante Samuel has four career pick-6's in the playoffs, which is the most all time. He has 9 career interceptions in the playoffs (tied with Ed Reed for most active). An underrated aspect of Asante's career is he is arguably better (at least in advanced stats - check out his numbers at Football Outsiders) as an Eagle. Corners also age well, so Asante still has time to get his resume more focused. Ronde Barber's consistency and longevity is absolutely astounding. 15 seasons. He missed 15 games in his rookie season, and missed exactly zero since. Other than 10 picks in 2001, he has between 2-5 in all but one season. That said, a 2nd team all-decade and 3 all-pro selections are good. As is his spot as one of the defensive stalwarts of the best defense in the early-2000s. Also, he has been a good citizen, and it would just be fun to see Ronde get in the HOF, after Tiki's arguable HOF-trending career ended because he retired for a definitely not HOF career as a reporter. As for Nnamdi, he will be a great litmus test to see if reputation can truly counter lack of counting stats. People know Nnamdi, from 2006-2010 was the best corner in the NFL (or at least second). People know no one threw at Nnamdi. However, after QBs learned that after 8 picks in 2006, Nnamdi has just 6 interceptions over the past five seasons. Nnamdi has the accolades with the all-pro nods, but I don't know if his career will just be flashy enough for him to get in.
3rd Tier: Darrelle Revis (Jets)
Darrelle Revis was close, for me, to going into Tier-2 like his 2007 draftmates Peterson and Willis, but I think there has been a slight down-tick in Revis love in 2011. There is no denying that in 2009, Darrelle Revis might have had the best season a corner has ever had, but many corners have one great year (Cortland Finnegan, for instance, was incredible in 2008). Revis does have three-straight first-team all-pro nods, so there is a legacy there, but I don't know where the career is going. If he continues what he has done over the past two seasons even (after the insane 2009) for four or five more years, he is in though.
4th Tier: Patrick Peterson (Cardinals)
I have no idea what my thinking is here. I don't really know if Peterson is any good as a corner. I do know, however, that Peterson is a great return man. For whatever reason, I think Peterson will become the great corner everyone thought he would become coming out of LSU. Peterson has boat-loads of talent. This has a chance to be my most wrong selection, but Tier-4 is the place for those fun picks.
S
1st Tier: Ed Reed (Ravens)
Ed Reed is the best safety I have ever seen. I have never understood the Ed Reed vs. Troy Polamalu argument because although they are safeties, when the argument really heated up (2008) they didn't play the same position. However, Ed Reed used to play SS. From 2002-2005, Ed Reed was a SS, and he was the best in the league at that position. He switched to FS in 2006, and guess what? Reed was the best in the league at that position too (I always think he should have won Defensive Player of the Year in 2008 over James Harrison - 9 picks, 3 fumble returns, 3 TDs). Ed Reed has 5 all-pros. He's led the league in interceptions three times (2004, 2008, 2010) including in a year he played just 10 games. Reed has 9 playoff interceptions in 11 games. Ed Reed is the best safety I have ever seen. He might be, after Ray Lewis, the biggest lock of any active player to be a 1st-ballot guy.
2nd Tier: Troy Polamalu (Steelers), Brian Dawkins (Eagles, Broncos)
Just like corners, safeties have become more prominent in the 2000s with the pass-heavy offenses in the NFL. Polamalu's only thing on Ed Reed is the rings. He's not Ed Reed. I doubt he's first ballot, but Polamalu is definitely a HOFer. Four 1st-team all-pro nods, as well as a 2010 Defensive Player of the Year. Polamalu's brilliance is probably better represented with anectodes and accolades than stats, but it definitely is worthy. Brian Dawkins tenure in Denver has been surprisingly good, but even without that three-year stint, he will be in. The longevity at that position is astounding. With 4 first-team all-pro nods and a 1st team all-decade. Dawkins ability as an all-around safety is in reality Polamalu-esque, with 37 career interceptions and 36 career forced fumbles as well as 26 sacks. Polamalu will never catch Dawkins in sacks or forced fumbles.
3rd Tier: Nick Collins (Packers)
Collins is probably a long shot, but he's on a better track than anyone else (not named those three above him, obviously). Collins doesn't have any 1st-team all-pro selections, but three 2nd-teams. If he comes back healthy, he could still have about five good years left, and maybe more if he has a Sharper-type late career. The 21 interceptions aren't a lot, but again, even averaging 5 over the next five years gives him 46 career, which is in line with other HOF safeties. Collins also gets the benefit of playing on a great team which will be competing for years.
4th Tier: Earl Thomas (Seahawks)
For a guy who will just be 23 in 2012, Earl Thomas is a star. Already a pro-bowler in 2011 (and in a conference lacking a lot of competition at safety), Thomas should be a fixture on that team for years. The Seahawks are a team on the rise, so his exposure should improve. He gets interceptions and plays good coverage. Thomas has a chance. Like any Tier-4 person, there is a chance injury plays a factor, but I think Thomas, if healthy, can get there.
Coaches
1st Tier: Bill Belichick (Patriots)
I don't want to really talk about how great of a coach Bill Belichick is (not that great of a GM, but coach? amazing). I don't think I need to. Unless there is some black-balling because of Spygate, Belichick is about as good of a 1st-ballot candidate as any coach since Bill Walsh or Joe Gibbs.
2nd Tier: Tom Coughlin (Giants), Mike Shanahan (Broncos, Redskins)
It is very interesting to contrast these two. Both have coached multiple teams. Shanahan's run in Washington hasn't been truly long enough to analyze, but a lot of it rests on RG3's success. Anyway, their careers records are close (Coughlin is 142-114 (.556) while Shanahan is 157-119 (.569)). Both have won their only two Super Bowl appearances, including memorable runs (the '98 Broncos were dominant but the '97 team was a wild-card team). Coughlin has had more success with his 'other' team (his 68-60 record with the Jags is great, moreso since they were an expansion team) as he made the AFC Title Game twice with the Jaguars, while Shanahan has yet to make the playoffs outside of Denver, but Shanahan's record with the main team is more impressive. Either way, other than Tom Flores, George Seifert and Jimmy Johnson, every coach with multiple rings is in, and these two will probably go in as well. They have the longevity and consistency that those three exceptions didn't have (though I maintain that Seifert should be in). One last similarity, they both are known for having faces that get really, really red.
3rd Tier: Mike Tomlin (Steelers)
Mike Tomlin has now finished five years as the Steelers coach, and what a five years it was. 55-25 record (three seasons of 12 wins), and two trips to the Super Bowl and one title. If his next five is even slightly worse than the first five (say 50-30 record with one Super Bowl appearance, but winning that one trip) he probably has the resume to get in. Tomlin does coach for an all-time franchise which helps, and one that is run so well it is hard to see Tomlin's Steelers teams ever having a multi-year run of mediocrity. I guess it could happen post-Roethlibserger, but by that time, Tomlin may already have the requisite success to get in.
4th Tier: Jim Harbuagh (49ers)
The list of coaches to have 13-3 records or better in their first season is a list three-names long: George Seifert, Jim Caldwell and Jim Harbaugh. Odd list overall. The other two both inherited great teams with great QBs. Seifert had just absurd success in San Francisco (98-30 in his tenure in San Fran - I do believe if his final season in Carolina was 6-10 instead of 1-15, or if Roger Craig doesn;t fumble that carry late in the 1990 NFC Title Game, Seifert is in the HOF). Caldwell flamed-out epically in Indy. I think Harbaugh has a chance to be the first of the three to get to the HOF. That team is loaded. My only quibble is with the QB, who I don't know will ever get good enough to win a Super Bowl, but Harbaugh had just an amazing year, and unlike Seifert and Caldwell, didn't have a HOF QB running the show. I like him, and I think he will be the second 49er head coach (and 3rd deserving) to get to Canton.
