This took a lot longer to get to than I hoped, but I'm doing the predictions as I called them before the season started. I would write more about the NL, but the league is just sad. Remember, everything I wrote was before the season.
NL East
1.) Philadelphia Philles - 93-69 (2)
The pitching is still there, but I worry about this team. They went all in from 2009-2012 (which is odd, since they won the title in 2008, with by far their worst team of the last four) and will likely get no World Series' Titles out of it. The pitching almost assuredly won't be as good as it was last year, as it is about time for Halladay and Lee to fall off a little bit. The hitting is bad, especially with Howard and Utley being out. Hunter Pence is the best bat, and while he is a solid, underrated player (career 120 OPS+), that probably won't cut it in October.
2.) Atlanta Braves - 85-77
To me, all of these NL East teams are nicer at first glance, but in reality, are all about average. I expect a bounce-back year from Jason Heyward, but the rest of their hitters are all somewhere between mediocre and merely good. Their pitching has depth and youth in Hanson, Jurrjens and Beachy, but their bullpen was really overworked last year, and bullpens are always inconsistent. Plus, Fredi Gonzalez is a really shitty manager.
3.) Washington Nationals - 84-78
Could the overtake the Phillies in 2012? I guess it is possible, but I think they are a year or two away from being in the mix for good. Jayson Werth just has to be better than last year, as he averaged a 130 OPS+ from 2007-2010 before going to 97 last year. Zimmermon, Desmond and Wilson Ramos are nice hitters. Their pitching, though, can be really good. Edwin Jackson is decent, and he's the #4. Gio Gonzalez was probably not worth what they gave up, but he stays healthy, eats innings and can get strikeouts. Jordan Zimmerman and Strasburg can develop into one of the better 1-2 punches out there. This team will be loaded come 2014.
4.) Miami Marlins - 81-81
I'm not buying into the "new ballpark = results" hype that surrounds this team. I liked two of their moves (Reyes and Buehrle). The biggest issue I see is that they have a lot of players on that team that have been moody and controversial in the past for lack of effort and concentration (Hanley, Reyes, Logan Morrison) and now a manager that doesn't really get on guys for that type of stuff in Ozzie. I hated the Carlos Zambrano signing, as he is just done, and other than the top two, I see little depth in that rotation. It is also hard to trust Josh Johnson to stay healthy anymore.
5.) New York Mets - 79-83
Call me crazy, but I like the New York Madoff's a little bit. Their biggest issue is a lack of depth. If they have injuries, which the Mets always seem to have, their chances are done, but if the Mets can stay healthy, they can compete for the 2nd Wild Card. Their starting line-up is decent, with one hitter who will be better as he's healthy (Wright), and nice young pieces that can all hit and have good batting eyes in Duda, Murphy and Ike. The pitching is also decent, with Santana back. RA Dickey is becoming the new Wakefield, and I still believe that Niese and Pelfrey can be league average. That all said, injuries will come, and the Mets will wallow in mediocrity.
NL Central
1.) St. Louis Cardinals - 91-71 (3)
The good ol' defending champs. I'm really unsure why I think they can get better without Pujols (win one more game than last year), but to me this is the equation. The Cardinals won 90 games last year in Pujols worst season. This year, they are without Pujols, but added Carlos Beltran (who had his best season in years in 2011) and Adam Wainwright back to the mix. To me, that is a wash. Berkman probably won't have close to that good of a year again, but getting a full year from Allen Craig and David Freese helps. Also, they won't have the Ryan Franklin closer experience like they did in early 2011. The Cardinals are still a good, deep team, with two top-shelf pitching prospects at the ready in Miller and Martinez as well.
2.) Milwaukee Brewers - 88-74 (4)
I think there will be a mad rush for the two wild card spots, and the Brewers will nab one of them. Having Braun not miss any games was huge. I think Aramis negates some of the loss from losing Fielder, and the team still has depth on offense. The pitching is still there. Greinke had better peripheral numbers than total last year, and he was on fire in the 2nd half, and I expect him to do even better in Year 2 in the NL, and same with Shaun Marcum. The Brewers were a legitimately very good team in 2011. They might take a step back, but I doubt it will be far enough.
3.) Cincinnati Reds - 87-75 (5)
I think the Reds are getting a little overhyped. They have a solid middle of the order with Philips, Votto and Bruce, but the rest of the hitting is not great. The pitching did improve with the trade to get Latos, but after him and Cueto, the Reds are relying on unproven or aging pitchers such as Leake (who was only league average last year, which I guess is not bad) and Bronson Arroyo. They have Chapman in the bullpen, but since he is not the closer, I'm not sure how much value he has.
4.) Pittsburgh Pirates - 76-86
Sneaky average team, the Pirates are in the right direction, but still not good enough to really compete. Andrew McCutcheon getting locked up long term was a really nice move, as was the signing of AJ Burnett. I'm not kidding. Burnett is a low-risk gamble as the Yankees are paying some of his money, and now in a pitchers park, away from NYC, I wouldn't be surprised to see Burnett do quite well. And by that I mean, a 4.25 ERA, instead of a 5.50 one.
5.) Chicago Cubs - 64-98
Man, Theo Epstein has a tough road ahead of him. He's inheriting a 71-91 team that lost its best player (Aramis Ramirez) and added basically no one. People forget that he inherited a 93-69 team in Boston, and not some team lost in the wilderness like he is here. His track record in Boston of big FA signings was mostly putrid (Schilling was good, but that is about it), and it will be interesting to see if the luster of his brilliance is as bright in Chicago as well. I doubt it.
6.) Houston Astros - 58-104
Man, it will be fun for them to lose 100+ games in their last season in the NL. How in Holy Hell did this team make the playoffs six times in nine years from 1997-2005.
NL West
1.) San Francisco Giants - 94-68 (1)
I'm not sure why I buy them more than the Phillies. Actually, it probably is the division. The NL East is a bit better than the NL West in my book. The Giants still have two great pitchers, and I can see Madison Bumgarner taking another step forward in 2012. They get back Buster Posey for what we can only assume will be the full year. Pablo Sandoval ended 2011 nicely, and I like the Melky pickup with him the NL. Not sure why I think this team can win this many games, but to be honest, the NL is a little disturbing right now. They've won three of the last four WS, but I think the best five teams are all in the AL right now.
2.) Arizona Diamondbacks - 85-77
They overacheived last year. Most noticeably, was the pitching performance of Ian Kennedy, who is good, but not that good. Also, Daniel Hudson probably will regress a bit. They did pick up Trevor Cahill, who I really like, and have a monster pitching prospect in Trevor Bauer, but I think the D-Backs are better set to dominate in 2013 than in 2012. The hitting is still depending on a lot of guys who had career type years, in Miguel Montero and Ryan Roberts. They are set well for the future, but I think 2011 was kind of a Cinderella run.
3.) Los Angeles Dodgers - 80-82
Amid all the McCourt and Bryan Stow nonsense in 2011, it was easy to look over the fact that the Dodgers weren't awful, and had the best pitcher and hitter in the NL. Clayton Kershaw was a deserving Cy Young winner with a monster season at just 23. Matt Kemp should have been the MVP. Both guys are among the 20 best players in baseball, but both should also regress a bit in 2012. The Dodgers pitching staff outside of Kershaw is a little softer this year without Kuroda, who was really dependable for them all of those years.
4.) Colorado Rockies - 76-86
I'm not sure who they have that can pitch. Drew Pomeranz is probably the best going forward, but the fact that Jamie Moyer can even make that team speaks more about the Rockies lack of pitching than it does about Moyer. They can hit, with Tulo and CarGo being great players (I've always like CarGo as a subject. As a prospect, he was traded to Oakland from Arizona in the Haren deal, and then stupidly traded by the A's to the Rockies for Matt Holliday, who lasted a year in Oakland - easily the dumbest move by Billy Beane in his time in Oakland). The Rockies had a breif period where they seemed loaded with young talent, but other than those two, it seems mostly dry now.
5.) San Diego Padres - 62-100
I still can't believe they came so close to a miracle playoff berth in 2010. I still think their offense is a mess, even after getting supposed stud Yonder Alonso in the Latos trade. The pitching is there, but I expect a bit of a falloff from Luebke, and I am not an Edinson Volquez fan at all. Everyone's numbers on that staff may look nicer just from pitching half of their games in PetCo, but that is not a great staff, nor a good team.
NL East
1.) Philadelphia Philles - 93-69 (2)
The pitching is still there, but I worry about this team. They went all in from 2009-2012 (which is odd, since they won the title in 2008, with by far their worst team of the last four) and will likely get no World Series' Titles out of it. The pitching almost assuredly won't be as good as it was last year, as it is about time for Halladay and Lee to fall off a little bit. The hitting is bad, especially with Howard and Utley being out. Hunter Pence is the best bat, and while he is a solid, underrated player (career 120 OPS+), that probably won't cut it in October.
2.) Atlanta Braves - 85-77
To me, all of these NL East teams are nicer at first glance, but in reality, are all about average. I expect a bounce-back year from Jason Heyward, but the rest of their hitters are all somewhere between mediocre and merely good. Their pitching has depth and youth in Hanson, Jurrjens and Beachy, but their bullpen was really overworked last year, and bullpens are always inconsistent. Plus, Fredi Gonzalez is a really shitty manager.
3.) Washington Nationals - 84-78
Could the overtake the Phillies in 2012? I guess it is possible, but I think they are a year or two away from being in the mix for good. Jayson Werth just has to be better than last year, as he averaged a 130 OPS+ from 2007-2010 before going to 97 last year. Zimmermon, Desmond and Wilson Ramos are nice hitters. Their pitching, though, can be really good. Edwin Jackson is decent, and he's the #4. Gio Gonzalez was probably not worth what they gave up, but he stays healthy, eats innings and can get strikeouts. Jordan Zimmerman and Strasburg can develop into one of the better 1-2 punches out there. This team will be loaded come 2014.
4.) Miami Marlins - 81-81
I'm not buying into the "new ballpark = results" hype that surrounds this team. I liked two of their moves (Reyes and Buehrle). The biggest issue I see is that they have a lot of players on that team that have been moody and controversial in the past for lack of effort and concentration (Hanley, Reyes, Logan Morrison) and now a manager that doesn't really get on guys for that type of stuff in Ozzie. I hated the Carlos Zambrano signing, as he is just done, and other than the top two, I see little depth in that rotation. It is also hard to trust Josh Johnson to stay healthy anymore.
5.) New York Mets - 79-83
Call me crazy, but I like the New York Madoff's a little bit. Their biggest issue is a lack of depth. If they have injuries, which the Mets always seem to have, their chances are done, but if the Mets can stay healthy, they can compete for the 2nd Wild Card. Their starting line-up is decent, with one hitter who will be better as he's healthy (Wright), and nice young pieces that can all hit and have good batting eyes in Duda, Murphy and Ike. The pitching is also decent, with Santana back. RA Dickey is becoming the new Wakefield, and I still believe that Niese and Pelfrey can be league average. That all said, injuries will come, and the Mets will wallow in mediocrity.
NL Central
1.) St. Louis Cardinals - 91-71 (3)
The good ol' defending champs. I'm really unsure why I think they can get better without Pujols (win one more game than last year), but to me this is the equation. The Cardinals won 90 games last year in Pujols worst season. This year, they are without Pujols, but added Carlos Beltran (who had his best season in years in 2011) and Adam Wainwright back to the mix. To me, that is a wash. Berkman probably won't have close to that good of a year again, but getting a full year from Allen Craig and David Freese helps. Also, they won't have the Ryan Franklin closer experience like they did in early 2011. The Cardinals are still a good, deep team, with two top-shelf pitching prospects at the ready in Miller and Martinez as well.
2.) Milwaukee Brewers - 88-74 (4)
I think there will be a mad rush for the two wild card spots, and the Brewers will nab one of them. Having Braun not miss any games was huge. I think Aramis negates some of the loss from losing Fielder, and the team still has depth on offense. The pitching is still there. Greinke had better peripheral numbers than total last year, and he was on fire in the 2nd half, and I expect him to do even better in Year 2 in the NL, and same with Shaun Marcum. The Brewers were a legitimately very good team in 2011. They might take a step back, but I doubt it will be far enough.
3.) Cincinnati Reds - 87-75 (5)
I think the Reds are getting a little overhyped. They have a solid middle of the order with Philips, Votto and Bruce, but the rest of the hitting is not great. The pitching did improve with the trade to get Latos, but after him and Cueto, the Reds are relying on unproven or aging pitchers such as Leake (who was only league average last year, which I guess is not bad) and Bronson Arroyo. They have Chapman in the bullpen, but since he is not the closer, I'm not sure how much value he has.
4.) Pittsburgh Pirates - 76-86
Sneaky average team, the Pirates are in the right direction, but still not good enough to really compete. Andrew McCutcheon getting locked up long term was a really nice move, as was the signing of AJ Burnett. I'm not kidding. Burnett is a low-risk gamble as the Yankees are paying some of his money, and now in a pitchers park, away from NYC, I wouldn't be surprised to see Burnett do quite well. And by that I mean, a 4.25 ERA, instead of a 5.50 one.
5.) Chicago Cubs - 64-98
Man, Theo Epstein has a tough road ahead of him. He's inheriting a 71-91 team that lost its best player (Aramis Ramirez) and added basically no one. People forget that he inherited a 93-69 team in Boston, and not some team lost in the wilderness like he is here. His track record in Boston of big FA signings was mostly putrid (Schilling was good, but that is about it), and it will be interesting to see if the luster of his brilliance is as bright in Chicago as well. I doubt it.
6.) Houston Astros - 58-104
Man, it will be fun for them to lose 100+ games in their last season in the NL. How in Holy Hell did this team make the playoffs six times in nine years from 1997-2005.
NL West
1.) San Francisco Giants - 94-68 (1)
I'm not sure why I buy them more than the Phillies. Actually, it probably is the division. The NL East is a bit better than the NL West in my book. The Giants still have two great pitchers, and I can see Madison Bumgarner taking another step forward in 2012. They get back Buster Posey for what we can only assume will be the full year. Pablo Sandoval ended 2011 nicely, and I like the Melky pickup with him the NL. Not sure why I think this team can win this many games, but to be honest, the NL is a little disturbing right now. They've won three of the last four WS, but I think the best five teams are all in the AL right now.
2.) Arizona Diamondbacks - 85-77
They overacheived last year. Most noticeably, was the pitching performance of Ian Kennedy, who is good, but not that good. Also, Daniel Hudson probably will regress a bit. They did pick up Trevor Cahill, who I really like, and have a monster pitching prospect in Trevor Bauer, but I think the D-Backs are better set to dominate in 2013 than in 2012. The hitting is still depending on a lot of guys who had career type years, in Miguel Montero and Ryan Roberts. They are set well for the future, but I think 2011 was kind of a Cinderella run.
3.) Los Angeles Dodgers - 80-82
Amid all the McCourt and Bryan Stow nonsense in 2011, it was easy to look over the fact that the Dodgers weren't awful, and had the best pitcher and hitter in the NL. Clayton Kershaw was a deserving Cy Young winner with a monster season at just 23. Matt Kemp should have been the MVP. Both guys are among the 20 best players in baseball, but both should also regress a bit in 2012. The Dodgers pitching staff outside of Kershaw is a little softer this year without Kuroda, who was really dependable for them all of those years.
4.) Colorado Rockies - 76-86
I'm not sure who they have that can pitch. Drew Pomeranz is probably the best going forward, but the fact that Jamie Moyer can even make that team speaks more about the Rockies lack of pitching than it does about Moyer. They can hit, with Tulo and CarGo being great players (I've always like CarGo as a subject. As a prospect, he was traded to Oakland from Arizona in the Haren deal, and then stupidly traded by the A's to the Rockies for Matt Holliday, who lasted a year in Oakland - easily the dumbest move by Billy Beane in his time in Oakland). The Rockies had a breif period where they seemed loaded with young talent, but other than those two, it seems mostly dry now.
5.) San Diego Padres - 62-100
I still can't believe they came so close to a miracle playoff berth in 2010. I still think their offense is a mess, even after getting supposed stud Yonder Alonso in the Latos trade. The pitching is there, but I expect a bit of a falloff from Luebke, and I am not an Edinson Volquez fan at all. Everyone's numbers on that staff may look nicer just from pitching half of their games in PetCo, but that is not a great staff, nor a good team.
