Two large sports moments happened over the weekend on the other side of the pond. One will, deservedly, get a lot more press, but two titans in their respective sport upended their nemesis. Real Madrid, under the guidance of "The Special One" Jose Mourinho finally beat Barcelona in a league game, and basically locked up their first La Liga title since 2008. The other wasn't as important, and in the grand scheme of things is much less meaningful since no annual title was earned, but Rafael Nadal, coincidentally a Real Madrid fan, finally beat Novak Djokovic for the first time since the 2010 Year End Masters Tournament, and for the first time in a Final since the 2010 US Open. Both snapped long streaks. This was Madrid's first league win against Barca since 2008. (Madrid had beaten Barca in the Copa Del Rey last year, but that was less important than Barca's 1-0-1 record in the league and their win in the Champions League Semifinal). Nadal had lost his last 7 matches against Djokovic, including matches at all three surfaces and in three straight Slam Finals. Finally, on consecutive days, both slayed their dragon, and it may just change the landscape of each sport.
I'll start with my take on Nadal beating Djokovic, because chances are this is not a true changing of the guard. Because Djokovic did not play the tournament in Monte Carlo last season, his lead in the rankings for the #1 player actually grew, but mentally, this is a huge step for Nadal. It was obvious that Nadal was getting closer. Nadal actually could have easily won the two meeting last spring in Indian Wells and Miami that started this run (he lost both in 3rd set tiebreakers), but those losses definitely gave Novak a giant burst of confidence that has really carried him since. Entering those matches, the head-to-head was 14-4 Nadal, with Rafa having a commanding 5-0 lead in Finals. Those two wins by Djokovic turned the table, and to his credit, he took off with that confidence and just hammered Nadal. The trend was cemented when Djokovic beat Nadal on clay in straight sets at Rome and Madrid. Both were close matches, but Djokovic just mentally didn't creak when the sets got tight. Nadal did.
Wins at Wimbledon, the US Open and the Australian Open followed, but in all matches Nadal took sets, and by the time the Australian Open Final came around, it took 5 hours and 57 minutes for Djokovic to finally beat Nadal, in a match truly either could have won. This made me confident that Nadal was just relaxing against Djokovic, that he was mentally getting better. I've always felt that Djokovic's run over Nadal was very, very different than Nadal's dominance over Federer over his career. Nadal's record over Federer is partially built on the fact that Nadal is an all-time great, but also that Nadal just matches up incredibly well with Roger. Nadal can exploit Roger's greatest weakness (high backhand). There's a reason why Federer rarely beats Nadal. There was no reason why Djokovic was owning Nadal other than the incredibly simple one: Nadal just was playing worse than Djokovic. It wasn't a matchup issue. It was a mental issue, but mostly an issue of one guy just simply playing better. Nadal just needed to play better, and he finally did.
Djokovic was the mentally weak one in this past match (6-3 6-1 win by Nadal), but this time it made sense that he was floating in-and-out of the match. Novak's grandfather passed away during the tournament, and Novak was struggling to keep his concentration during the week. Couple that with the fact that Nadal has lost all of six sets over the past EIGHT YEARS in the Monte Carlo tournament, and it was easy to see that this was the place where Nadal would end the streak. The Djokovic camp probably doesn't see this as a true representation of where the two are at entering the meat of the tennis season, but the Nadal camp can turn this into their catalyst. Many felt that Nadal would be even more depressed after that Aussie Open loss because of how close he came. I felt he would feel better about his game. That was a true toss-up. Nadal needed to play some great tennis to take the US Open match into a 4th set, but now was this close to winning it entirely. I think Djokovic is here to stay, but I think that was more than a blip on Djokovic's run to glory, but a sign that Rafa is going to make this a true rivalry, which it never has been, either when Rafa was dominating, or Nole.
Now, let's get to the real news: Real topping Barca. I'll write more about Barcelona if they lose their CL Semi to Chelsea mid-week., but for now, I think Jose's cracked that code, and I think the Barca reign is much more tenuous overall, and once again, it really just comes down to Messi.
Messi is the best player in the world. He's one of the best of all-time. Personally, I have more affection for Zidane, but defending that stance is becoming harder and harder unless I succumb to using the "Zidane was more magical" defense. But now, for maybe the first time in his Barca history, Messi needs to be the best player in the world. It is my opinion that Lionel Messi hasn't continued to raise his scoring numbers because he's gotten that much better, but because he needs to score more for Barca to have the success they have had. He's now unquestionably the most important part of the Barca machine, of Pep's system. He's the key. If he's off, Barca is just not Barca, and although they'll beat most teams, they won't beat every team. Messi didn't have his best day in the 1st leg of the CL Quarterfinal against AC Milan, and it was a 0-0 draw with Barcelona looking flat and, by their standards, unthreatening. Messi didn't have a great day on Saturday, and Barca looked less threatening then they have ever looked. It is all about Messi now, and I think he knows it. He scowls more, he looks more demonstrative. For one of the first times I can remember, Leo looked frustrated on Saturday. He knows what he's up against.
Back in 2009 and 2010, when Barcelona was unquestionably the best team in the world, I held that Lionel Messi was not the most important part of the Barcelona system. I gave that distinction to Xavi and Iniesta, the two brilliant geniuses, the two best pacers in tight space in the world. Those two were the real engine of the Barcelona scheme. They could win without Leo having a good impact. It was a shady, almost crooked win given the amount of penalties that could have been awarded to Chelsea, but in the 2009 CL Semifinal, Barcelona pulled through without Messi doing much of anything against that Chelsea defense. No, it was Xavi and Iniesta. The two men that were the central figure of the Spain team that won the 2008 Euro and the 2010 World Cup were also the leaders of Barcelona, but that is not the case anymore.
Those two, to me, are not the same player. Xavi is creeping towards his mid-30's and Iniesta also seems a step slower, physically and mentally. Messi needs to pick his game up, because the team minus Messi is much, much worse than the team minus Messi from 2009. That team had individual talent at almost every position that was better than this current iteration that uses Javier Mascherano as a central defender. With Xavi and Iniesta slowly, but surely, depreciating over time, Pep has turned to the next wave of talent to come through the system. The system is king in Barcelona, and I think the system has forced him to play guys that, personally, I think aren't all that good. Pedro, Thiago Alcantara, Alexis Sanchez and Cristian Tello. Those four are of the next wave of Barca academy products, but none of them, to me, are individually great players. The know how to feed off of the system, and capitalize on getting more shots available to them than most players. I don't think any of them are really all that good at finishing, but when you get more opportunites than others, the goals will eventually come. Barca will be fine because still., the talent is more than almost every team and Lionel Messi still is the best player in the world and is in his peak, but if Messi ever gets hurt, I fear what happens. In 2009, I would say not too much; now: probably a lot.
As for Real, I have never seen a team play that evenly against Barcelona. They didn't have much possession (28%), but unlike Chelsea over the week (22%), they didn't allow Barcelona numerous chances. Barca had a ton of the ball, but had the exact same amount of shots as Real Madrid (14) and fewer on goal. They didn't let Barca run around inside the penalty area. They kept everything far. They dared Barca to outrun them, and Barca just cannot. They knew exactly what Dani Alves was going to do, and banked on the fact that Alves wouldn't try to beat Fabio Coentrao to the end line. They knew what Barca was going to do after studying them over time. They finally were able to just play well enough on offense to make it work. In the Pep vs. Mourinho era, there have been 11 "Clasicos" (four in league, two Suppercopa, three Copa Del Rey, two Champions League), and despite this idea that Barcelona has dominated, Barcelona has won only five. Three have been draws and two Madrd wins. Only the first of the 11 was not a close game (a 5-0 Barca win). The others have had the following scorelines: Madrid wins of 1-0 and 2-1; draws of 1-1, 2-2, 2-2, 1-1, and Barca wins of 3-2, 2-1, 2-1 and 2-0. And that 2-0 win was the first leg of the CL Semi, where it was a 0-0 tie after about 70 minutes when Pepe was red-carded, where after Messi scored two quick goals.
Mourinho has changed this rivalry, and, in my opinion, for the better. The games mean more now than ever, and Mourinho has finally seen the fruits of his labor come to harvest. His defensive scheme against Barcelona has really worked over the past two years. His defensive scheme against Barcelona is built off of the success he had against them at Chelsea and Inter. When he was at Chelsea, Guardiola was not the Barca manager, but he beat them in the 2005 CL Round of 16. At Inter, he defeated a, in my mind, more deep and better Barcelona team in the 2010 CL Semifinal. Now he's beaten them in the league. He can play that team. He can neutralize Messi, who has scored just two goals against Mourinho teams, and again, those two were both scored after the man assigned with the task of stopping him got controversially red-carded. Now that he's reached that level at Madrid, there is a chance he takes his schtick back to England as has been floated around, but I think it makes more sense to stay and try to do it again next year.
I'll start with my take on Nadal beating Djokovic, because chances are this is not a true changing of the guard. Because Djokovic did not play the tournament in Monte Carlo last season, his lead in the rankings for the #1 player actually grew, but mentally, this is a huge step for Nadal. It was obvious that Nadal was getting closer. Nadal actually could have easily won the two meeting last spring in Indian Wells and Miami that started this run (he lost both in 3rd set tiebreakers), but those losses definitely gave Novak a giant burst of confidence that has really carried him since. Entering those matches, the head-to-head was 14-4 Nadal, with Rafa having a commanding 5-0 lead in Finals. Those two wins by Djokovic turned the table, and to his credit, he took off with that confidence and just hammered Nadal. The trend was cemented when Djokovic beat Nadal on clay in straight sets at Rome and Madrid. Both were close matches, but Djokovic just mentally didn't creak when the sets got tight. Nadal did.
Wins at Wimbledon, the US Open and the Australian Open followed, but in all matches Nadal took sets, and by the time the Australian Open Final came around, it took 5 hours and 57 minutes for Djokovic to finally beat Nadal, in a match truly either could have won. This made me confident that Nadal was just relaxing against Djokovic, that he was mentally getting better. I've always felt that Djokovic's run over Nadal was very, very different than Nadal's dominance over Federer over his career. Nadal's record over Federer is partially built on the fact that Nadal is an all-time great, but also that Nadal just matches up incredibly well with Roger. Nadal can exploit Roger's greatest weakness (high backhand). There's a reason why Federer rarely beats Nadal. There was no reason why Djokovic was owning Nadal other than the incredibly simple one: Nadal just was playing worse than Djokovic. It wasn't a matchup issue. It was a mental issue, but mostly an issue of one guy just simply playing better. Nadal just needed to play better, and he finally did.
Djokovic was the mentally weak one in this past match (6-3 6-1 win by Nadal), but this time it made sense that he was floating in-and-out of the match. Novak's grandfather passed away during the tournament, and Novak was struggling to keep his concentration during the week. Couple that with the fact that Nadal has lost all of six sets over the past EIGHT YEARS in the Monte Carlo tournament, and it was easy to see that this was the place where Nadal would end the streak. The Djokovic camp probably doesn't see this as a true representation of where the two are at entering the meat of the tennis season, but the Nadal camp can turn this into their catalyst. Many felt that Nadal would be even more depressed after that Aussie Open loss because of how close he came. I felt he would feel better about his game. That was a true toss-up. Nadal needed to play some great tennis to take the US Open match into a 4th set, but now was this close to winning it entirely. I think Djokovic is here to stay, but I think that was more than a blip on Djokovic's run to glory, but a sign that Rafa is going to make this a true rivalry, which it never has been, either when Rafa was dominating, or Nole.
Now, let's get to the real news: Real topping Barca. I'll write more about Barcelona if they lose their CL Semi to Chelsea mid-week., but for now, I think Jose's cracked that code, and I think the Barca reign is much more tenuous overall, and once again, it really just comes down to Messi.
Messi is the best player in the world. He's one of the best of all-time. Personally, I have more affection for Zidane, but defending that stance is becoming harder and harder unless I succumb to using the "Zidane was more magical" defense. But now, for maybe the first time in his Barca history, Messi needs to be the best player in the world. It is my opinion that Lionel Messi hasn't continued to raise his scoring numbers because he's gotten that much better, but because he needs to score more for Barca to have the success they have had. He's now unquestionably the most important part of the Barca machine, of Pep's system. He's the key. If he's off, Barca is just not Barca, and although they'll beat most teams, they won't beat every team. Messi didn't have his best day in the 1st leg of the CL Quarterfinal against AC Milan, and it was a 0-0 draw with Barcelona looking flat and, by their standards, unthreatening. Messi didn't have a great day on Saturday, and Barca looked less threatening then they have ever looked. It is all about Messi now, and I think he knows it. He scowls more, he looks more demonstrative. For one of the first times I can remember, Leo looked frustrated on Saturday. He knows what he's up against.
Back in 2009 and 2010, when Barcelona was unquestionably the best team in the world, I held that Lionel Messi was not the most important part of the Barcelona system. I gave that distinction to Xavi and Iniesta, the two brilliant geniuses, the two best pacers in tight space in the world. Those two were the real engine of the Barcelona scheme. They could win without Leo having a good impact. It was a shady, almost crooked win given the amount of penalties that could have been awarded to Chelsea, but in the 2009 CL Semifinal, Barcelona pulled through without Messi doing much of anything against that Chelsea defense. No, it was Xavi and Iniesta. The two men that were the central figure of the Spain team that won the 2008 Euro and the 2010 World Cup were also the leaders of Barcelona, but that is not the case anymore.
Those two, to me, are not the same player. Xavi is creeping towards his mid-30's and Iniesta also seems a step slower, physically and mentally. Messi needs to pick his game up, because the team minus Messi is much, much worse than the team minus Messi from 2009. That team had individual talent at almost every position that was better than this current iteration that uses Javier Mascherano as a central defender. With Xavi and Iniesta slowly, but surely, depreciating over time, Pep has turned to the next wave of talent to come through the system. The system is king in Barcelona, and I think the system has forced him to play guys that, personally, I think aren't all that good. Pedro, Thiago Alcantara, Alexis Sanchez and Cristian Tello. Those four are of the next wave of Barca academy products, but none of them, to me, are individually great players. The know how to feed off of the system, and capitalize on getting more shots available to them than most players. I don't think any of them are really all that good at finishing, but when you get more opportunites than others, the goals will eventually come. Barca will be fine because still., the talent is more than almost every team and Lionel Messi still is the best player in the world and is in his peak, but if Messi ever gets hurt, I fear what happens. In 2009, I would say not too much; now: probably a lot.
As for Real, I have never seen a team play that evenly against Barcelona. They didn't have much possession (28%), but unlike Chelsea over the week (22%), they didn't allow Barcelona numerous chances. Barca had a ton of the ball, but had the exact same amount of shots as Real Madrid (14) and fewer on goal. They didn't let Barca run around inside the penalty area. They kept everything far. They dared Barca to outrun them, and Barca just cannot. They knew exactly what Dani Alves was going to do, and banked on the fact that Alves wouldn't try to beat Fabio Coentrao to the end line. They knew what Barca was going to do after studying them over time. They finally were able to just play well enough on offense to make it work. In the Pep vs. Mourinho era, there have been 11 "Clasicos" (four in league, two Suppercopa, three Copa Del Rey, two Champions League), and despite this idea that Barcelona has dominated, Barcelona has won only five. Three have been draws and two Madrd wins. Only the first of the 11 was not a close game (a 5-0 Barca win). The others have had the following scorelines: Madrid wins of 1-0 and 2-1; draws of 1-1, 2-2, 2-2, 1-1, and Barca wins of 3-2, 2-1, 2-1 and 2-0. And that 2-0 win was the first leg of the CL Semi, where it was a 0-0 tie after about 70 minutes when Pepe was red-carded, where after Messi scored two quick goals.
Mourinho has changed this rivalry, and, in my opinion, for the better. The games mean more now than ever, and Mourinho has finally seen the fruits of his labor come to harvest. His defensive scheme against Barcelona has really worked over the past two years. His defensive scheme against Barcelona is built off of the success he had against them at Chelsea and Inter. When he was at Chelsea, Guardiola was not the Barca manager, but he beat them in the 2005 CL Round of 16. At Inter, he defeated a, in my mind, more deep and better Barcelona team in the 2010 CL Semifinal. Now he's beaten them in the league. He can play that team. He can neutralize Messi, who has scored just two goals against Mourinho teams, and again, those two were both scored after the man assigned with the task of stopping him got controversially red-carded. Now that he's reached that level at Madrid, there is a chance he takes his schtick back to England as has been floated around, but I think it makes more sense to stay and try to do it again next year.
