I didn't have a lot of time to do a more thorough preview of the MLB season that technically started last week in Japania, but is starting earnestly tonight (and in reality, tomorrow) with the defending World Champion St. Louis Cardinals going to the Miami Marlins and their new ball-park. Anyway, the biggest headlines this upcoming season are probably limited to two:
1.) The AL is loaded. The top four in teh AL East will probably all finish over .500, and the top three have a shot at winning 90 games. The top two in the AL West might be the two best teams in baseball.
2.) There are two wild cards. This makes predicting the playoffs a lot more fun, and makes the playoffs even that much more of a, no pun intended, wildcard. The playoffs can go anywhere with two teams playing one game to enter the real playoffs after playing 162.
Anyway, let's get to the predictions. I've decided to add predictions of wins as well. Hopefully this goes better than my predictions for last year, which other than the Brewers making the ALCS, I got almost completely wrong (I picked the Chicago White Sox to win the World Series, which is about as embarrassing as it gets). The AL is up first.
AL East
1.) Tampa Bay Rays - 97-65 (1)
I think they are loaded. This might be the best iteration of the Rays over the last five years. Their pitching staff is as deep as ever, and their top guys are dead-set in their prime now, with James Shields and David Price leading it. If Matt Moore is close to what people think he will be in 2012, the Rays have six legit starters (those three, and Wade Davis, Jeremy Hellickson and Jeff Neimann). That is a real six-deep rotation (unlike the Red Sox last year). Their ages: 30, 26, 24, 22, 26, 29 Their ERA+: 132, 107, 127, 134, 94, 92. Their line-up is good but not great, but I think there is a chance they really come on this year. Evan Longoria is healthy, and could really take his game to the next level. BJ Upton is somehow now underrated (as in he is what he is, and what he is, is still tremendously valuable) and the fact that he is in a contract year could push his numbers up. Overall, I really like where this team is at.
2.) New York Yankees - 93-69 (5)
It's not that I see the Yankees as really falling off, but I don't like the fact that their hitters are all a year older (in particular, Jeter, A-Rod and Teixeira). A-Rod's elongated path towards old age is well documented, but as a refresher here's his OPS+ over the past five years in order: 176-150-138-123-116. However, what is a little more unreported is Teixeira's drop over the past four years: 152-141-124-117. Granderson probably won't have that great of a year again. That said, I can see Robby Cano having a bounce-back year and I loved the pickup of Hiroki Kuroda (a criminally underrated player). CC Sabathia's second half of 2011 scares me, but they have depth of average and/or young pitching, which is all they need. Plus, the Yankees have one of the best bull-pens with Robertson and Boone Logan, and Mariano Rivera, who will undoubtedly have sub-2.00 ERA's until 2015.
3.) Boston Red Sox - 90-72
I love the line-up in theory. Adrian Gonzalez is awesome. There is some concern over his power drop over the 2nd half, but supposedly it was injury related and now he is healthy. Dustin Pedroia had a really nice year. David Ortiz will probably fall off (hard to keep up the trend of 101-134-151 OPS over the past three years) as he gets older. I think Carl Crawford almost assuredly playing better is offset by Jacoby Ellsbury almost assuredly not having that power year again. I think it is safe to look at Ellsbury's 2011 like Mauer's 2009 in terms of power. I'll wait to see him repeat it before I think it is lasting. What really sets me off about the Red Sox is they did nothing to fix their pitching. Beckett-Lester-Buchholz is a nice top-three, but if one of those gets hurt (pretty likely) there is no depth. Their 4th starter right now is Doubrount, and their fifth is a converted closer. That won't get it done in a deep division.
4.) Toronto Blue Jays - 84-78
I give them one more season before they pass the Red Sox (and a couple more until they pass the Yankees). Their pitching is still filled with young arms. I like Brandon Morrow to have a break-out season. His peripherals are all much better than his ERA (K/9, K/BB, WHIP) and he could easily have a great year. Ricky Romero is a very good pitcher who could get even better. The Jays have a good bullpen with Santos, Casey Jannsen and others. Their hitting is good and could be great. Jose Bautista is the best hitter in the AL over the past two seasons. Brett Lawrie is a future star. Colby Rasmus will finally get to play every day since he's been freed from the shackles of LaRussa. I think they are well positioned in the future, and should straddle .500 once again.
5.) Baltimore Orioles -70-92
One more win! Progress! In reality, the Orioles could be quite a bit better than last year and not see that reflected in their w-l given the strength of their division and the AL in general. Their pitching is still mostly awful, but reports are that Brian Matusz's velocity is back, and that probably equates to him being considerably better than one of the worst starters in baseball. Their line-up is decent, with six regulars with OPSes above 100. Vlad will probably decline out of that group, but the rest (Hardy, Weiters, Jones, Reynolds, Markakis) are all steady. Weiters could continue to break out and fulfill all that promise and hype. Help is on the way, though, with Dylan Bundy and Manny Machado a year away.
AL Central
1.) Detroit Tigers - 93-69
The best team in the AL Central outperformed its expectation last year in terms of their pythagoreon record. It added Fielder, but lost V-Mart, which given V-Marts numbers last year and Fielder switching to the AL, could be closer to a wash than most people think. The key with the Tigers is that they had a lot of people have career years in 2011 that would be hard to match. Obviously, there is Verlander. I have no doubt he's great, but chances are he won't be 24-5 with a 2.40 ERA and a 170 ERA+ over 250 innings again. Their bull-pen was filled with guys that had career years, like Jose Valverde (chances he blows zero saves again are less than zero) and Jaquin Benoit. Their depth in the rotation is an issue as well, as Fister won't repeat his numbers with the Tigers and the rest aren't all that great. That all said, most of that explanation was to convince you why they won't win 100 games. The Tigers are in the worst division in the AL, and should cruise to the division title.
2.) Cleveland Indians - 77-85
I think teams 2-4 will all be interchangeable, but overall I like the Indians. I don't know if their peak with the current crew is that much higher (unlike the team next) but I think it is a safe bet they get just short of .500. Ubaldo should be better with a full year in Cleveland than the numbers he put up in his time there in 2011, and Justin Masterson is a nice complement. Their lineup features four good hitters. Hafner's resurgence over the past three years is nice, but he's about at the age where a decline could come quickly. Carlos Santana is a future star and could get better, and the Indians will also get the luxury of most likely more than half a season from Shin-Soo Choo. Jason Kipnis could be a surprise with a full-time role. Finally, I like the Derek Lowe signing. I don't think they've improved from last year's already inflated record of 80-82, but I don't see a harsh fall back to reality.
3.) Kansas City Royals - 77-85
They can sure hit. Alex Gordon is finally doing something. He might have had the quietest breakout season ever. One could look at it as a fluke, but with someone who always had talent, it probably is just a representation of his peak. He probably won't get too much better than his 2011 given that Gordon is already 28, but I don't see a return to his injury-plagued form of 2009-2010. Billy Butler has been consistently very good over the past three seasons, and still young at 26, he could get better. Miek Moustakas, I feel, was rushed to the majors but with more time probably will improve. Finally, there is Eric Hosmer. A 118 OPS+ (.293/.334/.465) slash as a 21-year old ain't too bad. He's the star of the group. Wil Myers might get called up at sometime, and that is intriguing. Their pitching simply isn't worth talking about.
4.) Chicago White Sox - 75-87
My awful pick for the 2011 World Series slots in at number four with the team doing worse than last year. The offense has a lot of guys that are in the "it is hard to do any worse" camp, like Adam Dunn, Gordon Beckham and Alex Rios, but that is partially offset by having Paul Konerko almost guaranteed to decline. I don't like the White Sox pitching either. In the rotation is just a bunch of league average guys (Floyd, Danks, Humber) and they lost Buehrle. Guys like Chris Sale and Addison Reed could be good prospects, but their impact is definitely questionable. Going from Ozzie to Ventura will be a dramatic change on that team. I'm just not sure I like where they are right now.
5.) Minnesota Twins - 65-97
The cupboard is bare. The Twins are just beginning to enter into what the A's entered in 2007 (a prolonged period of mediocrity, or worse, after a long stretch of success). Mauer will probably be better, and Morneau has to be, but the team is just lacking impact on offense beyond those two. the pick-up of Josh Willingham is a nice move. He's been a starter for 6 years, and he's got a .838 OPS (121 OPS+) over that stretch. Really underrated guy. That said, they lost Michael Cuddyer who was always a consistent cog. Their pitching is just a mess. The Twins have basically four guys between 27 and 29 that are all basically the same (except for Liriano - who had an awful year in 2011 anyway). Slow fastball, pitch-to-contact guys that rely on the Twins defense. They can all either improve and regress, but probably offset each other. Sad times for a team who finally got a stadium that was worthy of their gallant play from 2002-2010.
AL West
1.) Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim - 96-66 (2)
Where to start with the most intriguing team of the AL. Obviously, they added Albert Pujols. Sure, he's supposedly 32 and coming off of his worst season as a pro, but that season improved greatly over the second half. Going to the AL could be an issue, but it wouldn't shock me to see Pujols at least repeat his 2011 numbers, which for 99% of the MLB populous wouldn't be all that bad. Trumbo probably won't have that type of year (and a sub-.300 OBP is not going to cut it much longer), but having a full season of Kendrys Morales is definitely a boost this team has been missing. When he went down for the first time in May 2010, Kendrys was arguably a top-5 hitter in the AL. Howie Kendrick had another nice solid year. Then, let's get to the pitching. No team has a better 1-4 than the Angels. The ace is probably Jered Weaver, who happens to be the best pitcher in the AL over the past two seasons. Dan Haren is the #2 and has been one of the best control pitchers for years, leading the league in SO/BB three of the last four seasons. Ervin Santana is above league average, and he is the number 4. CJ Wilson is a great #3, and he's now going to more a pitchers park than with the Rangers. Man, just imagine if Nick Adenhart never passed, what a great 1-5 this would be.
2.) Texas Rangers - 95-67 (4)
The Rangers only real loss in the offseason was CJ Wilson, but Yu Darvish could easily replace that production if he's close to what he was in Japan. Their offense is still very good, but there are age questions. Adrian Beltre is unlikely to put up numbers that good again as his prime comes to a close, and Mike Napoli almost definitely won't have that type of year again. The rest of their hitters are all in constant bands of production, with their other regulars all with OPS+ between 87 (Elvis Andrus - who makes up with that with speed and defense) and 128 (Hamilton, who given his recent trend of alternating good seasons with awesome ones could be great in 2012. The Rangers pitching is still deep with guys who would all be solid #3s in Colby Lewis, Alexi Ogando, Matt Harrison and Derek Holland, with those last two still young and good enough to break out. Of course, there's Neftali Feliz as potentially a starter. I'm skeptical how that will work, because at least as a closer he didn't seem to have the repertoire to be a starter.
3.) Seattle Mariners - 70-92
The Mariners have a lot of candidates to either have break-out years or bounce-back years. First the break-out of both Dustin Ackley, Justin Smoak and Jesus Montero. Ackley and Montero are both possible stars, with Ackley a newer version of Michael Young and Montero a guy who could be a star with the bat. Ichiro is probably a better bet to bounce-back than to continue his decline. Their pitching is suddenly a possible weakness (Felix Hernandez excluded who had a 'down' 2011 - 111 ERA+ - after incredible 2009-2010 seasons - 172-174 ERA+ - but it still just 26 and entering his prime) after trading Pinieda and Fister over the past 10 months, but their pitching will always perform well in that beautiful ballpark of theirs. They don't have the caliber of players of the top two, but aren't all that far off - at least in terms of top-end talent, with depth being another issue altogether.
4.) Oakland Athletics - 66-96
This is Billy Beane's plan. He wants to bottom out. They went on a relative fire-sale this offseason trading both Gio Gonzalez and Trevor Cahill for a load of prospects that will all really begin to help Oakland by 2014 (Jarrod Parker, Gerrit Cole, Derek Norris). This has left the A's really bare in terms of major-league talent. Seth Smith was a nice acquisition for them, and Manny Ramirez may provide some benefit after he serves his suspension, but their offense is just awful. The surprise signing of Yeonis Cespedes is another move for 2014, not 2012. This is all fine. The A's want a new ball-park and unlike, say the Twins, they are building to be good when that ballpark comes. It may be some time from now, but Billy Beane has a plan.
AL Playoffs
AL Wild Card Round - Yankees 4 @ Rangers 6
The Rangers don't really have a front-line pitcher to throw at the Yankees (again, assuming Yu Darvish is not the next Fernando Valenzuela as a rookie), but they have a bull-pen that can hold down the Yankees. Obviously, this is completely random (like all playoff picks in baseball) so I really don't need to give a whole explanation.
ALDS (1) Angels over (4) Rangers 3 games to 2 & (2) Rays over (3) Tigers 3 games to 1
This can be an epic first round series, but I see the Angels slightly better pitching taking it. The Angels have the better premium pitchers, and the Rangers depth and bull-pen is less meaningful in such a short series. As for the Rays, they have the better pitching and arguably as good of an offense (certainly deeper 1-9).
ALCS (1) Angels over (2) Rays 4 games to 2
What pitching matchups we could see in this. Shields vs. Weaver. Price vs. Haren. Moore vs. Wilson. The best two pitching teams in the AL might even neutralize the bats in the series as well. I like the Angels because I think in each one of those pitching matchups, they have a slight advantage (the Rays definitely have better pitchers after the top-4 but that doesn't matter in the playoffs).
AL Champion: Los Angeles Angels
1.) The AL is loaded. The top four in teh AL East will probably all finish over .500, and the top three have a shot at winning 90 games. The top two in the AL West might be the two best teams in baseball.
2.) There are two wild cards. This makes predicting the playoffs a lot more fun, and makes the playoffs even that much more of a, no pun intended, wildcard. The playoffs can go anywhere with two teams playing one game to enter the real playoffs after playing 162.
Anyway, let's get to the predictions. I've decided to add predictions of wins as well. Hopefully this goes better than my predictions for last year, which other than the Brewers making the ALCS, I got almost completely wrong (I picked the Chicago White Sox to win the World Series, which is about as embarrassing as it gets). The AL is up first.
AL East
1.) Tampa Bay Rays - 97-65 (1)
I think they are loaded. This might be the best iteration of the Rays over the last five years. Their pitching staff is as deep as ever, and their top guys are dead-set in their prime now, with James Shields and David Price leading it. If Matt Moore is close to what people think he will be in 2012, the Rays have six legit starters (those three, and Wade Davis, Jeremy Hellickson and Jeff Neimann). That is a real six-deep rotation (unlike the Red Sox last year). Their ages: 30, 26, 24, 22, 26, 29 Their ERA+: 132, 107, 127, 134, 94, 92. Their line-up is good but not great, but I think there is a chance they really come on this year. Evan Longoria is healthy, and could really take his game to the next level. BJ Upton is somehow now underrated (as in he is what he is, and what he is, is still tremendously valuable) and the fact that he is in a contract year could push his numbers up. Overall, I really like where this team is at.
2.) New York Yankees - 93-69 (5)
It's not that I see the Yankees as really falling off, but I don't like the fact that their hitters are all a year older (in particular, Jeter, A-Rod and Teixeira). A-Rod's elongated path towards old age is well documented, but as a refresher here's his OPS+ over the past five years in order: 176-150-138-123-116. However, what is a little more unreported is Teixeira's drop over the past four years: 152-141-124-117. Granderson probably won't have that great of a year again. That said, I can see Robby Cano having a bounce-back year and I loved the pickup of Hiroki Kuroda (a criminally underrated player). CC Sabathia's second half of 2011 scares me, but they have depth of average and/or young pitching, which is all they need. Plus, the Yankees have one of the best bull-pens with Robertson and Boone Logan, and Mariano Rivera, who will undoubtedly have sub-2.00 ERA's until 2015.
3.) Boston Red Sox - 90-72
I love the line-up in theory. Adrian Gonzalez is awesome. There is some concern over his power drop over the 2nd half, but supposedly it was injury related and now he is healthy. Dustin Pedroia had a really nice year. David Ortiz will probably fall off (hard to keep up the trend of 101-134-151 OPS over the past three years) as he gets older. I think Carl Crawford almost assuredly playing better is offset by Jacoby Ellsbury almost assuredly not having that power year again. I think it is safe to look at Ellsbury's 2011 like Mauer's 2009 in terms of power. I'll wait to see him repeat it before I think it is lasting. What really sets me off about the Red Sox is they did nothing to fix their pitching. Beckett-Lester-Buchholz is a nice top-three, but if one of those gets hurt (pretty likely) there is no depth. Their 4th starter right now is Doubrount, and their fifth is a converted closer. That won't get it done in a deep division.
4.) Toronto Blue Jays - 84-78
I give them one more season before they pass the Red Sox (and a couple more until they pass the Yankees). Their pitching is still filled with young arms. I like Brandon Morrow to have a break-out season. His peripherals are all much better than his ERA (K/9, K/BB, WHIP) and he could easily have a great year. Ricky Romero is a very good pitcher who could get even better. The Jays have a good bullpen with Santos, Casey Jannsen and others. Their hitting is good and could be great. Jose Bautista is the best hitter in the AL over the past two seasons. Brett Lawrie is a future star. Colby Rasmus will finally get to play every day since he's been freed from the shackles of LaRussa. I think they are well positioned in the future, and should straddle .500 once again.
5.) Baltimore Orioles -70-92
One more win! Progress! In reality, the Orioles could be quite a bit better than last year and not see that reflected in their w-l given the strength of their division and the AL in general. Their pitching is still mostly awful, but reports are that Brian Matusz's velocity is back, and that probably equates to him being considerably better than one of the worst starters in baseball. Their line-up is decent, with six regulars with OPSes above 100. Vlad will probably decline out of that group, but the rest (Hardy, Weiters, Jones, Reynolds, Markakis) are all steady. Weiters could continue to break out and fulfill all that promise and hype. Help is on the way, though, with Dylan Bundy and Manny Machado a year away.
AL Central
1.) Detroit Tigers - 93-69
The best team in the AL Central outperformed its expectation last year in terms of their pythagoreon record. It added Fielder, but lost V-Mart, which given V-Marts numbers last year and Fielder switching to the AL, could be closer to a wash than most people think. The key with the Tigers is that they had a lot of people have career years in 2011 that would be hard to match. Obviously, there is Verlander. I have no doubt he's great, but chances are he won't be 24-5 with a 2.40 ERA and a 170 ERA+ over 250 innings again. Their bull-pen was filled with guys that had career years, like Jose Valverde (chances he blows zero saves again are less than zero) and Jaquin Benoit. Their depth in the rotation is an issue as well, as Fister won't repeat his numbers with the Tigers and the rest aren't all that great. That all said, most of that explanation was to convince you why they won't win 100 games. The Tigers are in the worst division in the AL, and should cruise to the division title.
2.) Cleveland Indians - 77-85
I think teams 2-4 will all be interchangeable, but overall I like the Indians. I don't know if their peak with the current crew is that much higher (unlike the team next) but I think it is a safe bet they get just short of .500. Ubaldo should be better with a full year in Cleveland than the numbers he put up in his time there in 2011, and Justin Masterson is a nice complement. Their lineup features four good hitters. Hafner's resurgence over the past three years is nice, but he's about at the age where a decline could come quickly. Carlos Santana is a future star and could get better, and the Indians will also get the luxury of most likely more than half a season from Shin-Soo Choo. Jason Kipnis could be a surprise with a full-time role. Finally, I like the Derek Lowe signing. I don't think they've improved from last year's already inflated record of 80-82, but I don't see a harsh fall back to reality.
3.) Kansas City Royals - 77-85
They can sure hit. Alex Gordon is finally doing something. He might have had the quietest breakout season ever. One could look at it as a fluke, but with someone who always had talent, it probably is just a representation of his peak. He probably won't get too much better than his 2011 given that Gordon is already 28, but I don't see a return to his injury-plagued form of 2009-2010. Billy Butler has been consistently very good over the past three seasons, and still young at 26, he could get better. Miek Moustakas, I feel, was rushed to the majors but with more time probably will improve. Finally, there is Eric Hosmer. A 118 OPS+ (.293/.334/.465) slash as a 21-year old ain't too bad. He's the star of the group. Wil Myers might get called up at sometime, and that is intriguing. Their pitching simply isn't worth talking about.
4.) Chicago White Sox - 75-87
My awful pick for the 2011 World Series slots in at number four with the team doing worse than last year. The offense has a lot of guys that are in the "it is hard to do any worse" camp, like Adam Dunn, Gordon Beckham and Alex Rios, but that is partially offset by having Paul Konerko almost guaranteed to decline. I don't like the White Sox pitching either. In the rotation is just a bunch of league average guys (Floyd, Danks, Humber) and they lost Buehrle. Guys like Chris Sale and Addison Reed could be good prospects, but their impact is definitely questionable. Going from Ozzie to Ventura will be a dramatic change on that team. I'm just not sure I like where they are right now.
5.) Minnesota Twins - 65-97
The cupboard is bare. The Twins are just beginning to enter into what the A's entered in 2007 (a prolonged period of mediocrity, or worse, after a long stretch of success). Mauer will probably be better, and Morneau has to be, but the team is just lacking impact on offense beyond those two. the pick-up of Josh Willingham is a nice move. He's been a starter for 6 years, and he's got a .838 OPS (121 OPS+) over that stretch. Really underrated guy. That said, they lost Michael Cuddyer who was always a consistent cog. Their pitching is just a mess. The Twins have basically four guys between 27 and 29 that are all basically the same (except for Liriano - who had an awful year in 2011 anyway). Slow fastball, pitch-to-contact guys that rely on the Twins defense. They can all either improve and regress, but probably offset each other. Sad times for a team who finally got a stadium that was worthy of their gallant play from 2002-2010.
AL West
1.) Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim - 96-66 (2)
Where to start with the most intriguing team of the AL. Obviously, they added Albert Pujols. Sure, he's supposedly 32 and coming off of his worst season as a pro, but that season improved greatly over the second half. Going to the AL could be an issue, but it wouldn't shock me to see Pujols at least repeat his 2011 numbers, which for 99% of the MLB populous wouldn't be all that bad. Trumbo probably won't have that type of year (and a sub-.300 OBP is not going to cut it much longer), but having a full season of Kendrys Morales is definitely a boost this team has been missing. When he went down for the first time in May 2010, Kendrys was arguably a top-5 hitter in the AL. Howie Kendrick had another nice solid year. Then, let's get to the pitching. No team has a better 1-4 than the Angels. The ace is probably Jered Weaver, who happens to be the best pitcher in the AL over the past two seasons. Dan Haren is the #2 and has been one of the best control pitchers for years, leading the league in SO/BB three of the last four seasons. Ervin Santana is above league average, and he is the number 4. CJ Wilson is a great #3, and he's now going to more a pitchers park than with the Rangers. Man, just imagine if Nick Adenhart never passed, what a great 1-5 this would be.
2.) Texas Rangers - 95-67 (4)
The Rangers only real loss in the offseason was CJ Wilson, but Yu Darvish could easily replace that production if he's close to what he was in Japan. Their offense is still very good, but there are age questions. Adrian Beltre is unlikely to put up numbers that good again as his prime comes to a close, and Mike Napoli almost definitely won't have that type of year again. The rest of their hitters are all in constant bands of production, with their other regulars all with OPS+ between 87 (Elvis Andrus - who makes up with that with speed and defense) and 128 (Hamilton, who given his recent trend of alternating good seasons with awesome ones could be great in 2012. The Rangers pitching is still deep with guys who would all be solid #3s in Colby Lewis, Alexi Ogando, Matt Harrison and Derek Holland, with those last two still young and good enough to break out. Of course, there's Neftali Feliz as potentially a starter. I'm skeptical how that will work, because at least as a closer he didn't seem to have the repertoire to be a starter.
3.) Seattle Mariners - 70-92
The Mariners have a lot of candidates to either have break-out years or bounce-back years. First the break-out of both Dustin Ackley, Justin Smoak and Jesus Montero. Ackley and Montero are both possible stars, with Ackley a newer version of Michael Young and Montero a guy who could be a star with the bat. Ichiro is probably a better bet to bounce-back than to continue his decline. Their pitching is suddenly a possible weakness (Felix Hernandez excluded who had a 'down' 2011 - 111 ERA+ - after incredible 2009-2010 seasons - 172-174 ERA+ - but it still just 26 and entering his prime) after trading Pinieda and Fister over the past 10 months, but their pitching will always perform well in that beautiful ballpark of theirs. They don't have the caliber of players of the top two, but aren't all that far off - at least in terms of top-end talent, with depth being another issue altogether.
4.) Oakland Athletics - 66-96
This is Billy Beane's plan. He wants to bottom out. They went on a relative fire-sale this offseason trading both Gio Gonzalez and Trevor Cahill for a load of prospects that will all really begin to help Oakland by 2014 (Jarrod Parker, Gerrit Cole, Derek Norris). This has left the A's really bare in terms of major-league talent. Seth Smith was a nice acquisition for them, and Manny Ramirez may provide some benefit after he serves his suspension, but their offense is just awful. The surprise signing of Yeonis Cespedes is another move for 2014, not 2012. This is all fine. The A's want a new ball-park and unlike, say the Twins, they are building to be good when that ballpark comes. It may be some time from now, but Billy Beane has a plan.
AL Playoffs
AL Wild Card Round - Yankees 4 @ Rangers 6
The Rangers don't really have a front-line pitcher to throw at the Yankees (again, assuming Yu Darvish is not the next Fernando Valenzuela as a rookie), but they have a bull-pen that can hold down the Yankees. Obviously, this is completely random (like all playoff picks in baseball) so I really don't need to give a whole explanation.
ALDS (1) Angels over (4) Rangers 3 games to 2 & (2) Rays over (3) Tigers 3 games to 1
This can be an epic first round series, but I see the Angels slightly better pitching taking it. The Angels have the better premium pitchers, and the Rangers depth and bull-pen is less meaningful in such a short series. As for the Rays, they have the better pitching and arguably as good of an offense (certainly deeper 1-9).
ALCS (1) Angels over (2) Rays 4 games to 2
What pitching matchups we could see in this. Shields vs. Weaver. Price vs. Haren. Moore vs. Wilson. The best two pitching teams in the AL might even neutralize the bats in the series as well. I like the Angels because I think in each one of those pitching matchups, they have a slight advantage (the Rays definitely have better pitchers after the top-4 but that doesn't matter in the playoffs).
AL Champion: Los Angeles Angels
