MLB 2011: NL Preview

Now for the NL

NL East

1.) Philadelphia Phillies
2.) Florida Marlins
3.) Atlanta Braves
4.) New York Mets
5.) Washington Nationals

The Phillies have problems on offense, as Rollins is aging, Utley is hurt, and Howard is seemingly declining. They need youngster Domonic Brown to really step up. They also need a closer to do well until Brad Lidge returns, and need Brad Lidge to be something closer to Brad Lidge of 2008 instead of Brad Lidge in 2009. That said, that pitching rotation is too good. They have two of the three best active pitchers in terms of a career-long resume, with Halladay and Oswalt (in my opinion, with Johan as the other one). Cliff Lee is basically the new Greg Maddux, and Cole Hamels was amazing last year. They are just amazing. If they stay reasonably healthy, they should easily win this division.

The Marlins are really underrated. Their offense should be amazing, with Hanley, and another year of development from Logan Morrison and the great prospect Mike Stanton. With Josh Johnson, they have a front line pitcher. Their flier on Javier Vazquez could pay off well. This team doesn't have a whole lot of depth, but the Marlins will always have a few cards in their deck in that farm system.

The Braves are still a good team, but they will have to rely on Tim Hudson having another great year, and a lot of their batters continuing to play well. I just don't see them as a team that will easily play as well as they did last year. The Mets, if Johan was healthy, I would think is an intriguing sleeper, since their offense still has a lot of talent, and they should be more healthy this year, the Mets do have the players. If Johan comes back near the ASB, they should be a team that could challenge late. The Nationals will be good in a couple of years. I just hope that the Jayson Werth contract doesn't kill them.


NL Central

1.) Milwaukee Brewers
2.) Cincinnati Reds
3.) St. Louis Cardinals
4.) Houston Astros
5.) Chicago Cubs
6.) Pittsburgh Pirates

I love this Brewers team. They have two great pitchers heading the staff, including Zack Greinke, who's numbers in 2010 were a lot worse than how he actually pitched and now gets to come to the NL. Yovani Gallardo is an up and coming star. Shaun Marcum had a great year last year, and should get the AL to NL bump. Their offense is just loaded, with Fielder, McGehee, Weeks and Braun as the headliners, with capable players like Corey Hart behind them. The Brewers are surprisingly being held under the radar. They might start slowly as Hart and Greinke get healthy, but when they do, look out.

The Reds are really no worse than they were last year, but I doubt Votto has that good of a year again in 2011. Jay Bruce could take another step up to balance that, however. Their pitching is still a work in progress. I just think that the Brewers are a step ahead this year, and have leapfrogged a Reds team that stayed the status quot over the offseason. The Cardinals still have Pujols and Holliday, and a possibly rejuvanated Berkman, but without Wainwright, their pitching is now thin. Dave Duncan could work his usual magic, but its getting a little hard this year. They still have Pujols, but even he needs help.

Picking the Astros to finish fourth as actually a real stretch. However, they finally embraced the youth movement, and although their youth movement won't remind anyone of the Rockies youth movement in 2007, or the Rays youth movement in 2008, but it is interesting. I've seen more fantasy magazines pick Bud Norris as a sleeper pitcher than I can imagine. Chris Johnson, Hunter Pence and Carlos Lee at least provide some hitting ability (their fielding, not so much). I just don't know where the Cubs are headed. They are full of past-their-prime stars like Zambrano and Aramis Ramirez. Their young players like Randy Wells and Starlin Castro could make them intriguing, but I just don't see much there. The Pirates are the Pirates. I think they are finally headed in somewhat of the right direction, but they are still a couple years off.


NL West
1.) Colorado Rockies
2.) San Francisco Giants (Wild Card)
3.) Arizona Diamondbacks
4.) Los Angeles Dodgers
5.) San Diego Padres

The Rockies are a fun team, and they have one of the best pitchers as well as two of the best hitters in Carlos Gonzalez and Troy Tulowitzki. Dexter Fowler had a under the radar nice year last season, with a nice OBP. Their pitching has better depth than it usually does Jorge De La Rosa coming off a nice season and youngster Joulys Chacin coming on. The Rockies are a team that easily could have made the playoffs last season, and if Tolu is healthy for the entire season, than they should win the west.

The Giants had a dream season last season, and history probably won't repeat itself. Their pitching will still be great, and Tim Lincecum should improve from his 2010 performance. With a full year of Buster Posey, their offense should be better. Aubrey Huff could decline easily with age, and the move to replace Juan Uribe with Miguel Tejada probably was a little hasty. They won a weak West last year. They West probably isn't as weak, so they will steal the wildcard even if they have the same season they had last year.

The Diamondbacks are intriguing. Their offense was fine in 2010, and that was with Justin Upton having a down year, and he should improve for 2011. The starting pitching was actually fine, and losing Dan Haren hurts, but he didn't pitch that well for them. Joe Saunders should do well in that ballpark, and youngster Jarrod Parker could come as help from the farm. The problem last season was their bullpen, and they are notoriously volatile. If it becomes just 25% better, this team could finish third. The Dodgers are a mess ever since the McCourt's divorce, and guys like Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier having dissappointing years didn't help. That team is worse than the sum of their parts. The Padres lived a miracle for most of the 2010 season, but without their big hitter, and with their pitching staff due to slight decline to the mean, they will struggle to contend.


NL Playoffs

(1) Philadelphia Phillies over (WC) San Francisco Giants
(2) Milwaukee Brewers over (3) Colorado Rockies

NLCS
(1) Philadelphia Phillies over (2) Milwaukee Brewers (Pitching beats hitting - however, the pitching is pretty close. This could be a great seven game series)