Well, my bad picking from the NFL playoffs seems to have carried over to March. I got the entire Southeast bracket wrong. 0-4, which is pretty embarrassing. But then, I realized that Bill Simmons gets paid tons of money to go 0-4 in the NFL Playoffs for one week a year, so I'm probably fine. Anyway, before the games starts tomorrow, the games which constitute the best weekend of March Madness, in my opinion, I'll share my thoughts.
= Yes, there were a ton of close games, but other than a glut of winning shots early on Day 1, like Matt Howard's put back and the shot by the Temple kid, and I guess the three by the Morehead State fellow, there were few actual buzzer beaters. The real storyline was mostly odd officiating and abhorrent fouls.
= Obviously the Butler/Pitt ending was the most controversial, but in reality, I'm happy it played out the way it did. If none of the fouls occured, the game ends 70-69 with Butler winning off a beautifully designed play. That's how it should have been. Butler deserved to win that game, and with the foul on Howard, they ended up winning. That said, Pitt's inability to ever go through has been horrible. They have been a great program for years, but really, they never do get the premier players, just a bunch of good ones. They need to get the Kemba Walker's of the world. Of course, they are in Pittsburgh, so that is a challenge.
= Quick officiating thoughts. I had no problem with the five second call. The Texas guy called an inexplicable timeout anyway. If he didn't they never would have even had to inbound the ball. Also, it isn't the refs fault they fouled Derrick Williams.
= I do have problems with two other calls though. I cannot understand why the refs didn't at least review the time left on the clock at the end of the Washington - UNC game. Since the game was in Charlotte, it wreaked of the refs wanting to get the fuck out of the arena with the least bit of work. The other was the backcourt violation on Scoop Jardine. It didn't really look like backcourt.
= Anyway, let's move forward. These games could be classics, but really, I think there are three good teams out there. OSU, Kansas and Duke. Since that is more good teams than last year, we are probably in for a good third weekend, this second weekend doesn't seem to be packing the same punch it normally does. OSU is a loaded team, and they built it perfectly on offense, surrounding Sullinger with shooters. If the shooters are on, the game is over. Duke is a team that, oddly for a Coach K team, I see the sum as less than their parts. They have all the talent of last years team, but let their opponent hang around. There was no way Michigan should have had a good look at a basket to tie the game. That was inexplicable how the Dukies let Michigan get back in that game.
= Kansas is a weird team. They resemble the 2008 title team, although are probably a bit less talented (which is fine, since the Final 4 in 2011 will probably not be as collectively good as the Final 4 in 2008 which was as loaded a Final 4 as I've ever seen). They don't blow teams out, but just execute better. They play solid each game, and make their opponent work for everything. If their opponent plays out of its mind, then they can be beat, but it is difficult. They also rebound fantastically. I've watched more NBA games this year than most, and the difference in play between the NCAA and NBA is more jarring than ever, but Kansas runs stuff that at least looks like NBA plays. Despite three notable early flameouts, Bill Self, in my opinion, is an exceedingly good coach.
= The Big East is a fraud. They probably are a good conference, and top to bottom, probably are the best, but they are not good come tournament time. If all rounds were best of seven, they would dominate, but a lot of their programs struggle in the tournament. Georgetown wasn't fully healthy, but this is the third time in four years they have lost early to a far lesser seed. Syracuse has been beaten by lesser seeds all too often since the 2003 title. I've already talked about Pitt. There is a great chance the Big East doesn't get a Final 4 team for the first time since 2006.
= The NCAA Tournament is really about coaching, and 2011 has hammered that point home. With Steve Fisher, Bill Self, Mike Krzyzewski, Roy Williams, Jim Calhoun and Billy Donovan, six of the remaining teams have title winning coaches. Three more have a coach who has coached a team to the title game (Thad Matta, John Calipari and Brad Stevens). If Rick Pitino's team didn't turn into a choking dog, and if Jim Boehiem did anything in the tournament again, the number of coaches who have coached in a title game could have been 11 out of 16 teams. Even more than the NFL, coaching in college matters.
= We need some overtimes. We've had one overtime game, and the game (Temple/SDSU) was really the most boring double overtime games in the history of this tournament. The middle weekend is usually good for a couple. The most likely suspect is probably Florida/BYU (who played a double overtime classic last year), or UCONN/SDSU (although I doubt I want to see SDSU in another overtime), or even the amazing 10/11 matchup in VCU and Florida St. However, my darkhose potential classic game is Duke and Arizona. I don't think anyone on Duke can stop Derrick Williams, especially not the laughably overrated Brothers Plumlee.
= I'm looking forward to this weekend anyway, becuase I love all sporting events that can go to midnight. That's probably half the reason I like Western Conference basketball so much more. Who doesn't love when the game goes into the next day. The NCAA starting games at 9:57 gets me so happy. There is guaranteed to be some post-midnight action.
Here are my updated picks:
East
(1) Ohio St. over (4) Kentucky
(2) UNC over (11) Marquette
(1) Ohio St. over (2) UNC
West
(1) Duke over (5) Arizona
(3) UCONN over (2) SDSU
(3) UCONN over (1) Duke
Southwest
(1) Kansas over (12) Richmond
(11) VCU over (10) Florida St.
(1) Kansas over (10) Florida St.
Southeast
(4) Wisconsin over (8) Butler
(2) Florida over (3) BYU
(4) Wisconsin over (2) Florida
Final 4
(E1) Ohio St. over (W3) UCONN
(SW1) Kansas over (SE4) Wisconsin
(SW1) Kansas over (E1) Ohio St.
Games that I am potentially really looking forward to see:
1.) Kansas/Ohio St. Final - getting the best two teams is always a treat. Getting two one seeds hasn't happened since 2008, and getting the best two teams really hasn't happened since 2005.
2.) UCONN/Duke Regional Final - they always play amazing games, like in the 1999 Championship game and the 2004 National Semifinal. Calhoun vs Krzyzewski is probably also the dickiest coaching matchup possible.
3.) BYU/Wisconsin or Butler Regional Final - I don't think BYU will beat Florida, but to see Jimmer Fredette against either one of two of the best defensive teams in the nation would be a treat. My guess is Bo Ryan and Brad Stevens would have something for Mr. Jimmer.
4.) OSU/UNC Regional Final - I picked it to happen, and I would love to see it mostly because I think the Tar Heels would get drummed like a seabass. Seeing Duke or UNC beaten down like Hitler at the end of Inglorious Basterds is a rare, but amazing treat. We saw it in 2009 when Villanova laid the wood to the Dukies, and in 2008, when Kansas guillotined Roy Williams. Seeing one of those go down is always fun, and this one will probably be just as fun.
5.) OSU/Duke Final 4 - See above, #4, about seeing douchey programs get annihilated.
Enjoy the Games.
