AL East
1.) Boston Red Sox
2.) New York Yankees
3.) Toronto Blue Jays
4.) Tampa Bay Rays
5.) Baltimore Orioles
The Red Sox have questions in their lineup, considering most people are too quickly assuming that all of their injured players from 2010 will magically return fully healthy and capable. Adrian Gonzalez will be perfect in Boston, as will Carl Crawford. Their pitching has a lot of questions. Clay Buchholz is probably due for major regression, as his ERA was way lower than his peripheral stats would suggest.
As for the Yankees, I think their aging players are due for another step back, including A-Rod, who's fly-ball and HR rate has dropped three consecutive years. Derek Jeter is also not assured to improve from last year too much. Their pitching needs to seriously outperform what it is on paper. Phil Hughes was not good down the stretch. AJ Burnett had one of the worst years for a Yankees starters ever. Ivan Nova is unproven, and Freddy Garcia is Freddy Garcia, and this is not 2005.
The Blue Jays are on the rise. Their young pitching needs to continue on its pace, and their hitting will probably fall off a little bit, but young players like Travis Snider and Adam Lind should continue to improve. I think the Rays will be hurt for 2010. Losing Crawford is just a huge loss, and I'm not sure how a past-the-hill Manny and Damon help. They'll be back, because they just draft too well. The Orioles are a couple years away. They really should have waited a couple of years to get guys like Reynolds and Guerrero (obviously not a couple of years to get those guys, because they will not be that great in 2014, but comparable players then), because that's when their young talent will be at their absolute peak. Overall, the AL is still the best division in baseball, but now it is the deepest, but not exactly as top-heavy as before.
AL Central
1.) Chicago White Sox
2.) Minnesota Twins (Wild Card)
3.) Detroit Tigers
4.) Kansas City Royals
5.) Cleveland Indians
The White Sox are like most years under Kenny Williams: a mix-and-mash of veterans who can still mash, and young guys who are above average but really nothing better. The way they restock on the fly each year is really commendable. Their offense should be really good, if a little too dependent on the longball, but with Konerko, Quentin and now Dunn in a great hitters park, that should not be a problem. Their pitching isn't exactly great, but good enough to win a flawed division.
The Twins are what they always are, a team whose whole is greater than the sum of its parts, and should be in contention come September. Their pitching is what it is. Not pretty in terms of fantasy stats, but all have high groundball rates, and with a good defense behind them, that is fine. Liriano of course, is totally different. He's great, but I'm not sure he makes it all the way through the 2011 season in a Twins uniform. With the impotent rest of the AL Central, I think the Twins will steal the Wild Card, and giving the AL Central their first two-team playoff season since 2006.
The rest of the division really isn't that good. The Tigers have a front-line position player and a front-line pitcher in Cabrera and Verlander, but little else. The Royals will be really good in a couple of years, and probably will have a Rays 2008 type season in either 2012 or 2013, but for right now all of their top talent resides in AAA. The Indians are a total mess. They need some talent, and they need it fast. 2007 seems a like a long, long time ago.
AL West
1.) Oakland Athletics
2.) Los Angeles Angels
3.) Texas Rangers
4.) Seattle Mariners
The A's have the best rotation in the AL - even better than the overhyped Red Sox and the young, flamethrowing Rays. If Anderson stays healthy, and the other three just improve a little bit, which they should since they are all young, teh A's will have the pitching necessary to win the AL West. Their hitting needs to improve, but guys like Hedeki Matsui, are worthy risks to take. The A's have enough hitting to go with great pitching (in their bullpen as well), to steal this division for the first time since 2006.
The Angels, for once, are being really undervalued. With Haren/Weaver/Santana as the 1-2-3, they have three frontline pitchers. If Scott Kazmir gives them anything, then they have one of the best 1-4's in the AL after Oakland. Their hitting, with the return of Kendrys Morales should improve. Finally, although his contract is atrocious, Vernon Wells is still a very capable player, and should play well in Anaheim.
The Rangers should drop a little bit. Their hitting probably will fall as Michael Young continues to age, and Josh Hamilton regresses to just amazing instead of the next Mickey Mantle. If Nellie Cruz/Elvis Andrus can pick up the slack they might be fine. They should be good in the coming years, but replacing Cliff Lee with Brandon Webb isn't exactly a step up. The Mariners are what they are, a team with two great players and little else. They should really just stockpile pitching to go along with that park.
AL Playoffs
(1) Boston Red Sox over (WC) Minnesota Twins
(3) Chicago White Sox over (2) Oakland Athletics
ALCS
(3) Chicago White Sox over (1) Boston Red Sox (Why the hell not? Everyone's picking the Red Sox).
NL Tomorrow.
