Madness 2011: What the F**K?!?!

I love Cinderella stories in college basketball. I loved Butler last year making it within one unlucky bounce away from a national championship, or George Mason shocking a loaded Connecticut team after already beating Michigan St and UNC (those are three of the six or seven best programs of the deacde) in 2006. I loved Steph Curry leading a Davidson team to the Elite Eight and giving the eventual national champion their toughest game until the Championship game. I love all of those amazing runs, and seeing little schools do well.

That said, I do not love the developments of the 2011 NCAA Tournament at all.

There is a difference between enjoying the run of a cinderella story and seeing March hijacked by one and in this case two. I like my cinderella's, but I just don't like them playing into the April portion of March Madness. Have your fun, but at the end of the day, just go away fighting and let the best teams really fight it out. I didn't have a real problem with Butler last year making it to the Final game, mainly because they were not a cinderella. They were in excellent team, in the top-10 of the AP polls late in the season; they had the major cast members of this year's Final 4 team, but add a great defensive player and a NBA lottery pick. I wouldn't have had a problem if San Diego St. or BYU made it to the Final 4, as they were great teams. I even don't have a real problem with Butler if they came solo, but add that to VCU, and it makes it ridiculous. Midnight has to strike at some point, and I would love it if it struck a little earlier.

At first, I loved that three of the four top seeds were gone before the Elite 8. It was at first interesting, funny, and led to basically everyone's bracket getting beaten with a club. What helped was that two of the games that featured one seeds going down were great quality performances. Arizona played amazing over the last 20 minutes, reminiscent of Kansas' emasculation of UNC in the 2008 Semifinal (more on the Jayhawks later). Kentucky played amazing, shutting down OSU in a way I thought impossible.

However, the lack of one seeds made me realize then and there that the great play portion of the tournament was now over. We might have drama. We might have great finishes, and overtimes, but not great play. Having all four number one seeds gone makes it even worse. No matter what anyone says, having the best teams actually playing in the Final 4 does make it better. Remember 2006? The last year that no one seed made the Final 4, the year that featured VCU's conference colleague George Mason, but probably was the least watched Final 4 and least memorable ever. For those who remembered, that was the year that LSU made the Final 4 (anyone remember two players on that team?). That was the year that a three seed (Florida) won the title. That was the year that March Madness went out with a large thud. The same thing will happen this year. It will be fun at first to watch an 11 seed take on an 8 seed, but when the game turns into a glorified 3-pt contest, it will stop being cute and be mostly unsatisfying.

It is hard to defend the postseason system in College Football, but at least the BCS will always give us a satisfying matchup in the National Championship Game. It will inevitably lead to arguments over why another team isn't included, but usually the two participants are among the best in the country, and have proven it over the length of the college football season. The matchups always feature highly ranked teams, and in general, the games are usually very good, especially since they fixed the BCS after the LSU-USC-Oklahoma mess in 2003. Even if the BCS is killed and a playoff system is initiated, it will be most likely capped at 8 teams, producing the eight best teams in the nation. Making it 65 (and now 68) really bastardizes the regular season. It is just way too many teams to make a single-elimination format effective, and essentially makes the entire regular season meaningless. VCU did little to make the tournament. Kansas did everything. What exactly did that give Kansas?

I'm not saying March Madness is broken, because it is not. In fact, with the addition of the new channels it is shown on so as to allow us all to watch any game we want, it is better than ever. I'm just saying that having two "cinderella's" make the Final 4 doesn't make March Madness better. In fact, it makes the third weekend of March Madness, which should be the best, most important weekend, worse. It takes the teams that play the best basketball out of the tournament, and leaves it with nice storylines and little substance. Cinderella is a great story, but midnight strikes before the ball is over. March Madness is better off if it were no different.


SIDE RANT


I hate how this loss to VCU is becoming another opportunity to reassess Bill Self's coaching and tenure at Kansas. I did write last week that I think he is an exceedingly good coach, and I stand by it, despite this being the fourth time in his Kansas tenure he has been knocked out by a team seeded 9 or worse. Yes, he lost back-to-back years as a 3 and 4 seed in the first round, and yes he has lost two years in a row before the Final 4 as a 32-2 one seed entering the tournament. However, this is more about him coaching up teams in the regular season. Kansas is a blue-blood program, and he has good players, but he doesn't have great players. He has never had a Kemba Walker, or even an Emeka Okafor, or Deron Williams. He's coached only three lottery picks in his time at Kansas, and has never coached a player who was drafted in the top-10, an amazing stat for a program that has been so consistently successful in the decade. He's had good players, but fallible ones. Also, every program has lost their fair share of bad games. Mike Krzyzeswki coached teams from 2005-2009 that were seeded 1,1,6,2,2 in their region, and never made it to the Final 4, and never even made it to the Elite 8, always losing to a lower ranked team, including a 24 point loss to Villanova in the 2009 Sweet 16. Roy Williams lost to George Mason at UNC. Every program has bad losses. Kansas' problem is that their bad losses happen to less-than teams.

Bill Self is notorious for losing to low ranked teams, but that discounts his record against highly-ranked teams. The one year he did win the title? He had to beat a one seed in the semifinal (let alone embarrass one in the proccess) and then beat another one seed in the championship game. Do you know the last time the Champion had to beat two #1 seeds in the Final 4? Arizona, in 1997. Bill Self also seems to have a problem in Elite 8 games, with a record of 1-3 at Kansas in that round (he won the championship the year he did get that "1"), but his record in the Sweet 16 is pristine, and Elite 8 games are about as hard to win as the games in the third weekend.

He's not an amazing coach. He's not Coach K. But he's also not the best of recruiters, and that might have something to do with him running a squeaky-clean program and once recruiting a one-and-done player (Xavier Henry). Only Duke has done as much with less-than-amazing talent (the talent that John Calipari has always had, or Roy Williams), and until 2009, Coach K achieved less than Bill for a long period of time (especially considering the 1999-2001 Duke teams were loaded with NBA talent, especially the 2001 title team). Bill Self will probably get ridiculed, but it is not his fault his team missed open shot after open shot. VCU didn't really contest many of Kansas' three-point shots, and obviously didn't defence their free throws, and Kansas was abhorrent at both. Not Self's fault. They defended VCU well enough to win, and defended them better than even Florida St, the nations best FG% defense, did the round earlier. It is hard to defend him, because the losses are there, but he's also accomplished a lot, among them, winning a title. I hope he doesn't have a 32-2 season next year, because honestly, it sets the expecations higher than a team of that talent should have. The 2010-11 Jayhawks weren't 32-2 good. They really weren't. They fooled me. They didn't fool VCU, though.

Madness 2011: Review, Reset and React

Well, my bad picking from the NFL playoffs seems to have carried over to March. I got the entire Southeast bracket wrong. 0-4, which is pretty embarrassing. But then, I realized that Bill Simmons gets paid tons of money to go 0-4 in the NFL Playoffs for one week a year, so I'm probably fine. Anyway, before the games starts tomorrow, the games which constitute the best weekend of March Madness, in my opinion, I'll share my thoughts.

= Yes, there were a ton of close games, but other than a glut of winning shots early on Day 1, like Matt Howard's put back and the shot by the Temple kid, and I guess the three by the Morehead State fellow, there were few actual buzzer beaters. The real storyline was mostly odd officiating and abhorrent fouls.

= Obviously the Butler/Pitt ending was the most controversial, but in reality, I'm happy it played out the way it did. If none of the fouls occured, the game ends 70-69 with Butler winning off a beautifully designed play. That's how it should have been. Butler deserved to win that game, and with the foul on Howard, they ended up winning. That said, Pitt's inability to ever go through has been horrible. They have been a great program for years, but really, they never do get the premier players, just a bunch of good ones. They need to get the Kemba Walker's of the world. Of course, they are in Pittsburgh, so that is a challenge.

= Quick officiating thoughts. I had no problem with the five second call. The Texas guy called an inexplicable timeout anyway. If he didn't they never would have even had to inbound the ball. Also, it isn't the refs fault they fouled Derrick Williams.

= I do have problems with two other calls though. I cannot understand why the refs didn't at least review the time left on the clock at the end of the Washington - UNC game. Since the game was in Charlotte, it wreaked of the refs wanting to get the fuck out of the arena with the least bit of work. The other was the backcourt violation on Scoop Jardine. It didn't really look like backcourt.

= Anyway, let's move forward. These games could be classics, but really, I think there are three good teams out there. OSU, Kansas and Duke. Since that is more good teams than last year, we are probably in for a good third weekend, this second weekend doesn't seem to be packing the same punch it normally does. OSU is a loaded team, and they built it perfectly on offense, surrounding Sullinger with shooters. If the shooters are on, the game is over. Duke is a team that, oddly for a Coach K team, I see the sum as less than their parts. They have all the talent of last years team, but let their opponent hang around. There was no way Michigan should have had a good look at a basket to tie the game. That was inexplicable how the Dukies let Michigan get back in that game.

= Kansas is a weird team. They resemble the 2008 title team, although are probably a bit less talented (which is fine, since the Final 4 in 2011 will probably not be as collectively good as the Final 4 in 2008 which was as loaded a Final 4 as I've ever seen). They don't blow teams out, but just execute better. They play solid each game, and make their opponent work for everything. If their opponent plays out of its mind, then they can be beat, but it is difficult. They also rebound fantastically. I've watched more NBA games this year than most, and the difference in play between the NCAA and NBA is more jarring than ever, but Kansas runs stuff that at least looks like NBA plays. Despite three notable early flameouts, Bill Self, in my opinion, is an exceedingly good coach.

= The Big East is a fraud. They probably are a good conference, and top to bottom, probably are the best, but they are not good come tournament time. If all rounds were best of seven, they would dominate, but a lot of their programs struggle in the tournament. Georgetown wasn't fully healthy, but this is the third time in four years they have lost early to a far lesser seed. Syracuse has been beaten by lesser seeds all too often since the 2003 title. I've already talked about Pitt. There is a great chance the Big East doesn't get a Final 4 team for the first time since 2006.

= The NCAA Tournament is really about coaching, and 2011 has hammered that point home. With Steve Fisher, Bill Self, Mike Krzyzewski, Roy Williams, Jim Calhoun and Billy Donovan, six of the remaining teams have title winning coaches. Three more have a coach who has coached a team to the title game (Thad Matta, John Calipari and Brad Stevens). If Rick Pitino's team didn't turn into a choking dog, and if Jim Boehiem did anything in the tournament again, the number of coaches who have coached in a title game could have been 11 out of 16 teams. Even more than the NFL, coaching in college matters.

= We need some overtimes. We've had one overtime game, and the game (Temple/SDSU) was really the most boring double overtime games in the history of this tournament. The middle weekend is usually good for a couple. The most likely suspect is probably Florida/BYU (who played a double overtime classic last year), or UCONN/SDSU (although I doubt I want to see SDSU in another overtime), or even the amazing 10/11 matchup in VCU and Florida St. However, my darkhose potential classic game is Duke and Arizona. I don't think anyone on Duke can stop Derrick Williams, especially not the laughably overrated Brothers Plumlee.

= I'm looking forward to this weekend anyway, becuase I love all sporting events that can go to midnight. That's probably half the reason I like Western Conference basketball so much more. Who doesn't love when the game goes into the next day. The NCAA starting games at 9:57 gets me so happy. There is guaranteed to be some post-midnight action.

Here are my updated picks:

East

(1) Ohio St. over (4) Kentucky
(2) UNC over (11) Marquette

(1) Ohio St. over (2) UNC


West

(1) Duke over (5) Arizona
(3) UCONN over (2) SDSU

(3) UCONN over (1) Duke

Southwest

(1) Kansas over (12) Richmond
(11) VCU over (10) Florida St.

(1) Kansas over (10) Florida St.


Southeast

(4) Wisconsin over (8) Butler
(2) Florida over (3) BYU

(4) Wisconsin over (2) Florida


Final 4

(E1) Ohio St. over (W3) UCONN
(SW1) Kansas over (SE4) Wisconsin

(SW1) Kansas over (E1) Ohio St.


Games that I am potentially really looking forward to see:

1.) Kansas/Ohio St. Final - getting the best two teams is always a treat. Getting two one seeds hasn't happened since 2008, and getting the best two teams really hasn't happened since 2005.

2.) UCONN/Duke Regional Final - they always play amazing games, like in the 1999 Championship game and the 2004 National Semifinal. Calhoun vs Krzyzewski is probably also the dickiest coaching matchup possible.

3.) BYU/Wisconsin or Butler Regional Final - I don't think BYU will beat Florida, but to see Jimmer Fredette against either one of two of the best defensive teams in the nation would be a treat. My guess is Bo Ryan and Brad Stevens would have something for Mr. Jimmer.

4.) OSU/UNC Regional Final - I picked it to happen, and I would love to see it mostly because I think the Tar Heels would get drummed like a seabass. Seeing Duke or UNC beaten down like Hitler at the end of Inglorious Basterds is a rare, but amazing treat. We saw it in 2009 when Villanova laid the wood to the Dukies, and in 2008, when Kansas guillotined Roy Williams. Seeing one of those go down is always fun, and this one will probably be just as fun.

5.) OSU/Duke Final 4 - See above, #4, about seeing douchey programs get annihilated.


Enjoy the Games.

Madness 2011: The Picks

Here we go. I'll do them in region order.

East

1st Round

(1) Ohio St. over (16) Whoever
(8) George Mason over (9) Villanova
(5) West Virginia over (12) Clemson
(4) Kentucky over (13) Princeton
(6) Xavier over (11) Marquette
(3) Syracuse over (14) Indiana St.
(7) Washington over (10) Georgia
(2) UNC over (15) Long Island

(yes, I will pick upsets eventually)

2nd Round

(1) Ohio St. over (8) George Mason
(5) West Virginia over (4) Kentucky
(3) Syracuse over (6) Xavier
(7) Washington over (2) UNC


West Region

1st Round

(1) Duke over (16) Hampton
(9) Tennessee over (8) Michigan
(5) Arizona over (12) Memphis
(4) Texas over (13) Oakland
(11) Missouri over (6) Cincinnati
(3) UCONN over (14) Bucknell
(7) Temple over (10) Penn St.
(2) San Diego St. over (15) Northern Co.

2nd Round

(1) Duke over (9) Tennessee
(4) Texas over (5) Arizona
(3) UCONN over (11) Missouri
(2) San Diego St. over (7) Temple


Southwest Region

1st Round

(1) Kansas over (16) Boston U.
(8) UNLV over (9) Illinois
(12) Richmond over (5) Vanderbilt
(4) Louisville over (13) Morehead St.
(6) Georgetown over (11) Whoever
(3) Purdue over (14) St. Peter's
(10) Florida St. over (7) Texas A&M
(2) Notre Dame over (15) Akron

2nd Round

(1) Kansas over (8) UNLV
(4) Louisville over (12) Richmond
(6) Georgetown over (3) Purdue
(2) Notre Dame over (10) Florida St.


Southeast Region

1st Round

(1) Pitt over (16) UNC Asheville
(8)Butler over (9) Old Dominion
(5) Kansas St. over (12) Utah St.
(4) Wisconsin over (13) Belmont
(6) St. John's over (11) Gonzaga
(3) BYU over (14) Wofford
(10) Michigan St. over (7) UCLA
(2) Florida over (15) UCSB

2nd Round

(1) Pitt over (8) Butler
(5) Kansas St. over (4) Wisconsin
(6) St. John's over (3) BYU
(10) Michigan St. over (2) Florida


Sweet 16

(E1) Ohio St. over (E5) West Virginia
(E3) Syracuse over (E7) Washington

(W4) Texas over (W1) Duke
(W2) San Diego St. over (W3) UCONN

(SW1) Kansas over (SW4) Louisville
(SW6) Georgetown over (SW2) Notre Dame

(SE1) Pitt over (SE5) Kansas St.
(SE10) Michigan St. over (SE6) St. John's


Elite 8

(E1) Ohio St. over (E3) Syracuse

(E4) Texas over (E2) San Diego St.

(SW1) Kansas over (SW6) Georgetown

(SE1) Pitt over (SE10) Michigan St.


Final 4

(E1) Ohio St. over (E4) Texas

(SW1) Kansas over (SE1) Pitt


(SW1) Kansas over (E1) Ohio St.

Champion:
Kansas Jayhawks

Madness 2011: Initial Bracket Thoughts

I'm not a huge college basketball fan. In fact, I've not watched a complete college game so far this year. That said, when March rolls along, much like the nicer weather, college basketball starts appearing more often in my life. This year is no different. I am ready for a fun three weekends of three-point shooting, pick and rolls, and zone defenses, and other things that make the quality of the college game a whole lot worse than the NBA, but the drama just as good. Anyway, the bracket this year has some interesting storylines all to its own. Here are my rambling thoughts on the bracket.

= The first thing that jumped out was the quality of the Southeast (the quarter that Pitt is the #1), and by that, I mean mostly how soft it is. They have, imo, the worst of all the 2's (Florida, a team way overranked), and due to Davies' suspension, the worst of the 3's. Honestly, they have the worst of the 4's, in Wisconsin, as well. Pittsburgh is famous for flaming out in the tournament under coach Jamie Dixon and even before that under Ben Howland. If they don't make it out this year, then they never will.

= Ohio St. can't be too happy with its draw given that it is the top overall seed. This is the second year the selection committee has loaded the region with the overall top seed. Last year Kansas got a brutal draw that was irrelevant since they lost to Northern Iowa. This time, they have a good 2-3-4-5-6-7. All of those teams have a shot. Ohio St. has a really good combination of inside/outside offense but they will need to be at their best.

= I won't be able to really talk about the legitimacy of VCU and UAB being included over the likes of Colorado and Alabama and Virginia Tech, but I will talk about how pissed off Jay Bilas was. He threw the biggest shit-fest over the whole thing, calling out everyone associated with the committee, saying it doesn't "pass the laugh test" (which really made no sense). He made it seem like the biggest snub in the history of the bracket bubble. Why all this drama for teams that have about a .02% chance of making it even to the Sweet 16? Lord knows, but to see Jay Bilas, one of the best, most intelligent, level-headed ESPN personalities, lose his shits was fun.

= I said this last year: "Kansas was my pick to win it all, and this is the last time I ever trust them. I had them winning it all in 2007 too. Of course, they won the following year, so this might bode well for the 2011 Jayhawks." I honestly predicted Kansas winning the 2011 title back in May 2010. Of course, it isn't really a prediction, nor am I going to pick them, but it is scary how consistent they are at screwing with my bracket one year and being really good the next.

= Is there nothing more grating than everyone saying "The Big East is the best conference by far." And this unfounded crap is only going to intensify now that the Big East got 11 bids. This is a conference that got 8 bids a year ago, and only two got to the sweet sixteen and only one got to the elite eight (West Virginia, a team that was not among the best Big East teams last year). Also, the Big East was a juggernaut in 2009. This is not the same thing. I don't see any great teams from the Big East. I'll be stunned if any of them win the title. In 2009, three of the one seeds were from the Big East, and out of their seven bids, five made the Sweet 16, four made the Elite Eight, and two made the Final Four. That's success. If the Big East fails again to come close in 2011, I think the "Big East is the SEC of basketball" needs to stop.

= Back to the draw. I'm not loving Duke's chances. First, they are out West. One seeds out west, especially those who don't come from the Western part of the country, are not usually very successful. Only UCONN as a one out West has come out of it, and that was in 2009. Strange thing about UCONN, which makes Duke's position more precarious, is that they are amazing out West. UCONN was in the West bracket in 1999, 2004 and 2009. Their results: Champions, Champions, Semifinals.

= Also, there is the Tennessee and Texas factor. Texas is a good team that went through a lull, but is, in my opinion, really underranked. They were in the conversation for a one or two seed a couple weeks ago. They can play. Then there is Tennessee, who has been extremely average for most of the second half of the season. That said, they have some big scalps on their mantle over the past four years. Bruce Pearl coaches that team up like no other. In the Florida Back-to-Back years, Tennessee beat Florida three out of four times. In 2007, they played Greg Oden's Ohio St. team in the Sweet 16 and lost by one. In 2010, Kentucky and Kansas had a combined three regular season losses, two of those were to Tennessee. Then, as a five seed they made the Elite Eight. Finally, this season, they beat Pitt and then beat Villanove when they were good. They are a team that can rise to the level of their opponent.

= Kansas should be worried about Louisville. Rick Pitino has NEVER lost in the Sweet 16 round. If he goes that far, he always makes at least the Elite Eight, which is a ridiculous statistic. Kansas and Louisville are slated to play in the Sweet 16. That said, Self is 5-2 in the Sweet 16 round, so something has to give, but I'm not liking Kansas' chances against Sir Rick Pitino.

Overall, this should be a fun tournament. There really is no great team, although Ohio St. is probably the closest. The tournament is really wide open, and there is a chance for some new blood in the Final Four. As always, it is March, let the madness begin.


I'll be back with picks later today or tomorrow. Part 2 of the India-venture coming later this week.

The Butler Way

It is being billed as David vs Goliath, but really, it is not. Butler is nearly as good. Butler was ranked in the top-12 for most of the year, has the longest current winning streak in the nation, has beaten a one-seed and a two-seed, and then finished off the most resourceful team led by the most resourceful coach. They have not allowed an opponent to score more than 60 points since Valentine's Day. They are a damn good basketball team. Arguably every bit as good as Duke. No, its not David vs Goliath. However, it is still a matchup worth savoring, and one where Butler is the emotional favorite.

This is Star Wars, this is World War II. The Blue Devils are the Galactic Empire, the Axis Powers. The Butler Bulldogs are the New Hope, the last team that can knock out the evil Dukies. As Deadspin put it, it is the perfect matchup. Half the country is wants Butler to win, and the other half wants Duke to go down in a fiery inferno. Although the cast of characters has changed, and the hated elitists that used to lace it up for Duke are gone, they are still as bombastic, as arrogant and as hateful as ever. And Butler is the perfect foil.

Everyone should want Butler to win this game. Partly, because it is a great story, partly because, well, its Duke going down, and finally because Duke doesn't deserve it. This was an interesting year in college basketball. There really were no great teams. Kansas was the closest, but their disastrous loss ended any hope of the 2010 champs entering the same league as the '07 Gators, '08 Jayhawks or '09 Tar Heels. The 2010 Champ is not going to be an all time great, it is not going to be a memorable team, so why have it be Duke? The perfect way to end this eventful, up and down season would be a mid-major winning it all. The only way the 2010 season would be remembered 10 years from now would be if this was "the year that the mid-major won it all." Especially with this possibly being the last year of the 64 team tournament, the nice way to end the legacy of the 64 team tournament, the one that saw the NCAA Tournament reach stratostrophic heights, is to have the ultimate underdog beat the team that has dominated college basketball for the last 20 years. It has to happen.

Butler is a team that could define this season, and this tournament. In their hometown of Indianapolis, the capital city of a state whose citizens are born into a culture of basketball hoops nailed onto barnhouse walls, the Bulldogs can win the Butler way, the right way. They play tight man to man defense, the close out open shooters, they pass the ball, they shoot Js perfectly, they hit free throws, taking advantage of the free points available. The Butler way can conquer the Duke way, and mainly because the Duke way is not that great. Sure, they smashed West Virginia in a thoroughly impressive display, but that was about as good as Duke can play. They just cannot shoot that good again. Butler is good enough to put a hand up on every single shot, pressure Scheyer and co. into mistakes. It is possible, it can be done. Duke is a tough team, an experienced team, but not a great team. Jay Williams, Mike Dunleavy, Carlos Boozer and Shane Battier are not walking through that door, Scheyer and Singler are. Hayward and company can do it. They have to do it, they will do it, the Butler way.