Week 1 NFL Picks

Here we go, starting from Week 1, it is on this year. 60% or your money back (all zero dollars you gave me for this). Let's go.


Minnesota Vikings @ New Orleans Saints (-5)

Formula Winner: New Orleans (17-26)

The home team (defending champion) always wins these. The energy is right, the crowd is amped up, everything works for the defending champ. However, the defending champ doesn't always cover. Each of the past two years, the road team covered but lost, and if Sidney Rice was playing, I would say it would happen again. The Vikings defense is a horrible matchup for the Saints offense. They cannot run on that team, which forces them to go in the air, and the Saints struggle against premier DTs on defense. All of this would matter if Sidney Rice was playing. He's not, and that really hurts, as the Saints have good enough corners to cover the rest of the targets. Saints should pull this out.

Vikings 20 Saints 27 (NO)


Carolina Panthers @ New York Giants (-6.5)

Formula Winner: New York (19-30)

This line seems a bit too high. The Panthers running game will keep them in most games. The Giants running game, the easy way to beat the Panthers, is scuttling right now. The Giants are also a little banged up on the o-line. I am already regretting my 13-3 prediction for them, as it is, so it will be really hard if they start with a loss. However, I think that their pass rush looked great in preseason, and Matt Moore might get a bit rattled. Steve Smith is also not 100%, the Panthers one that is. Finally, I don't see the Giants losing their first game in their new stadium.

Panthers 17 Giants 20 (CAR)


Miami Dolphins (-3) @ Buffalo Bills

Formula Winner: Miami (35-46)

The Bills are not very good. Their only good healthy running back is CJ Spiller. If the Dolphins have playoff aspirations, the win this game. I think they do. They need to put the hammer down and win this game. I think they do. No real explanation needed, except for that they are the better team, hands down.

Dolphins 24 Bills 14 (MIA)


Atlanta Falcons (-2.5) @ Pittsburgh Steelers

Formula Winner: Pittsburgh (26-27)

The Falcons aren't really a great matchup for the Steelers. With Dennis Dixon starting, the Steelers will turn to Mendenhall, a lot. That bodes well for the Falcons, who are a lot more susceptible to the pass than the run. The Falcons will probably have to rely on the pass, because even in their dark days in 2009, the Steelers' run defense remained strong. Their pass defense is still very good, but the Falcons have one of the better o-lines in the NFL. If Ben Roethlisberger was starting, I would go with the Steelers, but then the line would be a lot different as well. He's not, the Falcons are the better team with Ben out of the picture.

Falcons 20 Steelers 14 (ATL)


Detroit Lions @ Chicago Bears (-6.5)

Formula Winner: Chicago (20-42)

This is a perfect match for the Bears. The Lions run defense should be a lot better, but their secondary is a mess. Their pass rush is good, which will test the Bears o-line, but there should be plenty of areas for Cutler to throw in against the Lions. The Bears defense will be a lot better than people give them credit for. Tommie Harris is finally healthy, Urlacher is back and Peppers could run wild against Jeff Backus. The Bears should flex their muscles.

Lions 13 Bears 28 (CHI)


Cincinnati Bengals @ New England Patriots (-4.5)

Formula Winner: Cincinnati (21-22)

This line is about right. The Pats usually don't lose their opening game (haven't done it since 2003). They historically play the Bengals really well, beating them 34-13 in back to back season (2006 and 2007), but these are the new Bengals. Those Bengals didn't have the horses on defense (especially in that 2007 meeting). They have the corners to at least stay with the Pats bevy of weapons. They have the players up front to just take away the running game, and then they have enough players to get some penetration. The key here is the Pats defense. I really don't know what to think about them. They are young and allegedly talented. Not sure if I totally trust Belichick as a personnel guy anymore, but I trust him to at least win this game. They better, because their schedule is deadly going forward.

Bengals 20 Patriots 24 (CIN)


Cleveland Browns @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3)

Formula Winner: Cleveland (45-50)

For some reason, the Browns are getting a ton of love in this one. People obviously are convinced that the Browns are less awful than the Buccaneers, and are absolutely sure of this fact. I'm not so convinced, at least right now. Neither team is really any good. The Browns do have better coaching, and probably a better QB (odd, isn't it, that Delhomme is the "better" QB), but the Bucs are at home, and this line is awfully small. I'll go against the grain and pick TB. I mean, they aren't going 0-16, and they don't get to play themselves, so they have to win some of these games, right? (I realize that was probably my worst justification for making a pick ever.)

Browns 14 Buccaneers 17 (TB)

Denver Broncos @ Jacksonville Jaguars (-3)

Formula Winner: Jacksonville (42-47)

Interesting that the Jaguars are favored here. Both teams fizzled at the end of the regular season, plus there are odd people, probably led astray by the messiac nature of Timothy Tebow, who love the Broncos. Of course, you all know that I am not one of those people, but I too feel that the Jaguars aren't much better. But, they are better. The Jaguars have to win this game, and more than that, have to stop Tim Tebow from scoring. The last time this situation arose was when Vince Young played the Texans in Houston. Of course, the Titans won that one with a Vince Young TD in overtime, but I really can't foresee that scenario. The Jaguars better win this game, because they need a fast start to have a chance at avoiding blackouts later in the year, and Jack Del Rio needs it for the stability of his income.

Broncos 17 Jaguars 24 (JAX)

Indianapolis Colts (-2.5) @ Houston Texans

Formula Winner: Indianapolis (14-24)

In what could be the best game of the weekend, the Colts and Texans play in a game the Texans have really highlighted since the schedule comes out. To me, I truly hope the Texans don't take this game too seriously. If they lose, their season is not over. The Texans don't need to beat Indianapolis to make the playoffs (just ask the 2008 Ravens or 2007 Giants who both were swept by bitter rivals in the regular season, but still made the playoffs and went far). The Texans just need to win their other games. Last season, I thought the Colts would lose their game in Houston, and if this game was in any week after the first, say, five, I would think the same thing, but the Texans are notorious slow starters. Missing Brian Cushing also hurts. The Texans will need their d-line to dominate the trenches, which is possible with the Colts o-line in tatters. However, none of that really matters. The Colts haven't lost a regular season game that they tried to win since October 2008 (No lie). They aren't about to lose to their biggest rival in the AFC South.

Colts 27 Texans 23 (IND)

Oakland Raiders @ Tennessee Titans (-6.5)

Formula Winner: Tennessee (29-36)

This is a game the Raiders might have a chance to steal, but over the offseason, when I was looking over the games, trying to work out the records, I had the Titans taking it. I heard some media people say that this is a litmus test for the Raiders defense. Bull. Chris Johnson isn't a litmus test. Chris Johnson owns even the best defenses. The Raiders just need to slow him down to 120 yards, instead of 200. The Raiders offense should be able to get somethings going against the Titans, but I just don't like this matchup in Tennessee. If it were in Oakland, I would probably take the Raiders to win. Here, just to cover.

Raiders 20 Titans 24 (OAK)

Green Bay Packers (-3) @ Philadelphia Eagles

Formula Winner: Green Bay (18-32)

How is this line not any higher? The Eagles are starting Kevin Kolb against a good defense. The Packers are looking like a team with legitimate Super Bowl aspirations. If the Packers want to be taken seriously, they win this game easily. These are the games Super Bowl teams win. The Packers have the better matchup on offense and defense, especially since they can take the Eagles running game away, and force all the pressure on Kevin Kolb. This is one of the easiest picks of the weekend.

Packers 27 Eagles 14 (GB)

San Francisco 49ers (-3) @ Seattle Seahawks

Formula Winner: San Francisco (36-47)

The Seahawks couldn't beat the 49ers even when the Seahawks were good (1-3 from 2006-2007). They definitely shouldn't beat them now. The 49ers are a bad matchup because the Seahawks o-line struggles mightily against 3-4 teams. And again, this was when the Seahawks were good. The 49ers are the best team in their division, or at least better than the Seahawks, and Qwest really isn't a great home-field advantage, since their fans have nothing really to get into. Painful days lie ahead for Seattle. Luckily, they still get to play the Cardinals and Rams 4 times.

49ers 23 Seahawks 14 (SF)

Arizona Cardinals (-4) @ St. Louis Rams

Formula Winner: Arizona (30-51)

I hate even talking about these NFC West games. Remember when the Rams were the greatest show on turf? That could not have been the same NFC West? Anyway, the Cardinals are starting Derek Anderson, and I have no idea what to expect from him. He might be the 2007 version, considering he finally has some nice weapons, or the 2008-2009 version, considering he is Derek Anderson. Of course, the Rams are in worse shape, if that was possible. Without Donnie Avery, they lack their only true go-to receiver, plus they don't have anyone that can pressure the QB, which is the best way to beat the Cardinals given their o-line mess. Either way, the Cardinals should win this game. Luckily for the Rams, they still get the Seahawks two times.

Cardinals 31 Rams 17 (ARZ)

Dallas Cowboys (-3.5) @ Washington Redskins

Formula Winner: Washington (28-28 (Home Field Gets Advantage))

This line is stupid. Why is Dallas so good. Everyone talks about them like they won the Super Bowl. Honestly, the Dallas love is less understandable than the Jets love. At least the Jets won two playoff games and had the Colts on the ropes early. Dallas is returning essentially the same team that got DESTROYED by the Vikings in the playoffs. Remember that game? It was 34-3, the Cowboys getting so horrendously outplayed. Tony Romo was sacked six times, and his line has not gotten one iota better. The Redskins defense has always been good, and the good karma for at least one week of Shanahan and McNabb will at least do something, right? Anyway, winning Sunday Night games on the road is a tough proposition, and even tougher when you aren't really that much better than your opponent.

Cowboys 20 Redskins 23 (WAS)

Baltimore Ravens @ New York Jets (-2.5)

Formula Winner: Baltimore (23-27)

This is an interesting game, featuring two overrated teams. The Ravens now have essentially three possession receivers and no deep threat. I mean, is there any difference between Anquan Boldin and TJ Houshmanzadeh? I really don't see how that helps them, especially since Flacco's strength is the deep ball. As for the Jets, getting Revis back really, really helps this team. They should have a great crowd behind them two, being it the first night game in that stadium, and there actually being a real sense of optimism and expectations among the Jets fanbase. This is actually a litmus test for both teams. The lose will have to deal with expectations being set back, while the winner will get so high and mighty that preparing for their week two matchup (CIN for the Ravens and NE for the Jets) might be a problem.Either way, the Jets need this game more. They have talked about this game, and the start of this season. Now, with Revis back, I think the team will play with a new-found energy, and that will last, at least for now.

Ravens 14 Jets 20 (NYJ)


San Diego Chargers (-4.5) @ Kansas City Chiefs

Formula Winner: San Diego (23-50)

I don't like the Chargers right now. They have problems all over their team, and more and more it looks like V-Jack and McNeill won't be back for a long, long time. Luckily for them, the Cheifs are worse, however I will say that the late Monday Night Game might give the Chiefs an added boost of energy. It certainly did for the Raiders last season. The Chiefs will keep this close, but probably eventually run out of gas by the end of the game.

Chargers 27 Chiefs 23 (KC)


Enjoy the Games!!