I'm deciding that until Week 2 is complete, to not do an updated power rankings, nor switch my formula ratings (except that Detroit is now a 5 at QB, and Philly a 4, for switching to Shaun Hill and Mike Vick). Part of this is because I didn't do it soon enough, and part of it is because too often people let what transpires in Week 1 cloud their judgment. Week 1 is probably the least important Week of the NFL season (yes, I realize that mathematically, they are equally important), but it is the week that garners the most reaction, and mostly overreaction, of any other. Because of just one week of play, seemingly "experts" have the league all figured out. Because of one win, some teams are now 'shoo-ins for the playoffs' while others 'have had their window of opportunity slammed shut'. So, instead of a conventional ranking, here is a list of the 10 Largest Overreactions of Week 1.
* The Cowboys have serious problems scoring
It would be nice to start with an overreaction that is probably true. The Cowboys do have major problems scoring, and these problems are not new at all. Last year, the Cowboys averaged 399 yards of offense a game, good for second in the league. However, they only scored 361 points, which was 14th in the league. If anything, a team would rather be reversed. Not being able to translate yards into points is the worst problem that can afflict any offense, and it is the same now. Romo and the 'boys put up 380 yards on Sunday Night, and put up just 7 points. This is exactly what happened last year, nothing new at all. The Cowboys do have serious problems scoring points.
Anyway, let's get to the real overreactions, ranked from slight overreaction to absolute ludicrous overreaction.
10.) The Jets Suck.
This was shouted all over the medias following the Jets listless showing on Monday Night. People thought that the Jets were either a.) blown out of the water, or b.) were on the losing end of the most one-sided one point game of all time. People seem to forget that the Jets had the ball with two minutes to go with a chance to kick a field goal and win the game. However, their inability to kick that field goal gets us to the part that isn't a total overreaction. Mark Sanchez, while not "sucking" by definition, is at least mediocre at best. He checks down way, way too much, which is odd since he throws a beautiful deep ball. You can't hide your QB, and making him check down is hiding him. It won't work. Either way, their defense seemed as good as ever. With Revis getting back into football shape, games like Boldin's probably will stop happening against the Jets. The Jets were never going to be a 13-3 team. They were a 10-6 type team all along, and they still could be.
9.) The Titans have gone back in time to 1999 or 2008 again
Young went 13-17 with two tds and no ints in the Titans win over the Raiders. This gave him a QB rating of 142.8, which is his second best ever. What that really means is that there is no way in hell he keeps that up. He's not going to be the reason this team goes to the playoffs, or approaches the 1999, 2000 or 2008 Titans (all 13-3). It will be Chris Johnson, who was average. Of course, his numbers of 27 carries, 142 yards and 2 tds look great, and they were, but 76 of those yards came on one run, which means his other 26 carries went for just 66 yards, which is, plainly, bad. He needs to bust those long runs, and more often than not he does, but it isn't a guarantee. Anyway, they might have had one of the most impressive Week 1 wins, but they aren't a powerhouse.
8.) The Bears got Lucky, and aren't any good.
The Bears nearly gave that game away. If Calvin Johnson caught that pass for the TD, the Lions would have won the game, but they would have won it on a hail mary. The Bears were the better team that day. If Lovie Smith doesn't idiotically go for it on 4th down trailing by one point, and kicks a field goal, there is no opportunity for Calvin Johnson. Cutler and the Bears offense went up and down the field with ease. The Bears defense was great, limiting the Lions to just 168 yards on the day. Jahvid Best may have had two tds, but he put up just 20 yards on 14 carries. That performance was reminiscent of the 2005-2006 Bears defense. Julius Peppers played like a man possessed. The Bears are a good team. Their o-line still worries me a lot, but if the Lions can do anything, they can get pressure on the QB.
7.) The Falcons are done.
Sure, losing to the Steelers without Roethlisberger is not a good start, but beating the Steelers in Heinz on opening day is one of the hardest propositions in the NFL. The last time the Steelers lost their home opener was in 2002. I should have realized this before picking the Falcons. Also, the Steelers were a great match-up for the Falcons, as they have the ability to make Michael Turner and that ground game irrelevant, and the Falcons relied a little too heavily on the ground game until falling behind late. Either way, that game was more a win for the Steelers than a loss for the Falcons. The Steelers are a really good team, and it showed. However, let's get to this, if Polamalu doesn't make an interception that probably only he or Ed Reed makes, the Falcons kick the game winning field goal and win that game. The Falcons were also the loser of the only OT game of the week. I'm still confident that they have the ability to make the playoffs.
6.) Wes Welker, and more so, the Pats, are back in full.
This was probably the most versed overreaction after Week 1. I'll admit, the Pats looked very good in their opener. Their defense was good in the first half, and had a timely int return TD, while their special teams contributed another. Those two scores were the difference in the game, and that is the problem. The Pats offense alone scored 24 points. Of course, if the int-return and kick-off return took two possessions away from the Pats offense, in which they could have scored those two TDs as it was, but they didn't. The offense scored 24 points. Brady did look great, but he always does at home. There was a lot of talk about Welker's game. To me, he wasn't exactly the same. 8 catches and 64 yards is not really that much production, as 8 ypc is pretty bad for a WR. He had two TD's but that doesn't make his three yard catches suddenly great plays. The Pats defense also showed some major weakness in that second half, and although most pundits wrote that off as the Pats playing prevent, they still are the Pats. The Pats never play prevent. They like to win games 45-10. Belichick, I'm sure, was furious at their second half defensive performance. Either way, the Pats are a good team, probably better than I give them credit for, but they are not the 2007 Pats.
5.) The Seahawks are again the favorites in the NFC West.
There was no bigger statement made in Week 1 than the Seahawks. They drummed the prohibitive, overwhelming favorite in Week 1, and Pete Carroll partied like he was in Matt Leinart's hot tub. However, let us calm down. The Seahawks were actually outgained for the day. That was as flukey as a 25 point win can get, considering the 49ers only committed one more turnover on the day, and they didn't miss a field goal. There really was no explanation for the huge point differential. The Seahawks will never get outgained and win by 25 again, in fact, this is the first time since 2007 a team was outgained and won by more than 20 points. The Seahawks may well be a good team, and may well win that division, but they aren't shoo-ins yet, far from it.
4.) The Saints are still great.
The Saints won their opener, which is no surprise, since the home team winning the Thursday Night Season Opener is the biggest lock in NFL Gambling. However, the fact that they won 14-9 is both a good sign that their defense is still good, but also a bad sign that their offense can be contained. To be simple, their offense didn't look all that good. Unlike the Vikings, whose offense looked rusty, and is due for major regression as it was, the Saints didn't look that explosive. After that first drive, they did nothing until they started running the ball, which isn't a great sign, as last year, they could score easily by going all-pass. What was even worse was that unlike the NFC Title Game, the Vikings didn't get major pressure on the Saints. Brees had time, but just didn't click. The Saints aren't going to run away with the NFC this year.
3.) The Eagles are better off with Vick.
A lot of people were back on the Vick bandwagon after Kevin Kolb struggled and Vick ran and threw for 100 yards. Kolb struggling was predictible, since he isn't that great as it was, is essentially a rookie and was going against one of the better defenses in the NFL. Vick performing well was surprising, but not shocking, especially his running. NFL defenses haven't really faced the true Mike Vick since 2006, and probably aren't used to a QB running that fast again. Vick's speed became commonplace and defendable in 2005-2006, but after four years trapped in a cage, when it was unleashed it was fresh. It won't truly stay that way. That said, with Vick, they might win more games, but that doesn't necessarily mean they are better off. Vick is not the long-term answer in Philly, Kolb (or someone not yet on the team is), and the Eagles are just delaying the inevitable if they play Vick.
2.) The Colts defense stinks.
The Colts defense did stink in Week 1 (more pointedly, their rush defense, since their pass defense was good, like always). The Colts always have these types of games. Last year, it was Week 2 in Miami. They gave up 239 yards on the ground (which was actually more than this year) and Miami controlled the ball for a hellish 45 minutes. Of course, the Colts one that game because Manning threw down one of his greatest performances of all time. Manning did so on Sunday, but his other players let him down. The o-line was awful, which led to a sack stalling one drive. Pierre Garcon's drop stalled another, and then Austin Collie fumbled nine yards away from a TD that would have made in 20-17 (the Texans recovered, and scored to make it 27-10). The Colts will be fine. They might not have a cakewalk in the AFC South, but they still are the best team in the division.
1.) The Chiefs are Good.
The Chiefs scored the biggest upset of Week 1, but that doesn't suddenly make them contenders. In fact, the Chargers played the almost exact replica of that game one year ago, with the only difference being the Chiefs held up in their goal-line stand, and the Raiders allowed the Chargers to score. It was eerily similar. The Chiefs got the benefit of two long TDs, including a punt-return, which aren't exactly repeatable acts. I will say this: Romeo Crennel can coach defense (sadly, he can't coach a team, but he doesn't have to here). The Chiefs defense will be frisky all year, but if you can limit big plays, you can beat the Chiefs, easily. As an aside, Matt Cassel played like garbage. For more proof that comparing QBs by wins and losses is an idiotic process: Peyton threw for 433 yards, 3 tds and no picks and lost, while Cassel threw for 68 yards and one td, and won.
Week 2 will tell us a lot more, and will allow me to actually not be lazy and do a power ranking (not sure how that works). Picks tomorrow!!
