MLB Playoffs: Breaking the ALDS's Down

Picture credit to www.mw32.com

So, after that masterpiece on Wednesday night, we have to sit down and look at what lies ahead: October baseball. I'm already stocking up on extra nails to bite off over the next four weeks. Overall, this might be the best field we've had in the playoffs in years. For the second straight year, the fewest wins of any playoff team is 90, and this year we have more good teams then ever. The top three in the AL won 97, 96 and 95 games, and the top three in the NFL won 102, 96 and 94 games. These are all good teams, and other than Arizona, all teams that are not surprises in a way. The AL returns three teams from last years' playoffs, with the Verlanders replacing the Twins. The NL has the Phillies, which was kind of obvious, and the Cardinals, who while a surprise, have been playoff staples over the last decade. The Brewers were my pet team, so I'm not surprised in any way. The D'Backs are a huge surprise, but they were good from the beginning of the season, and then after that 11 game win streak took over the NL West lead and never really came close to blowing it. This is a deep playoff slate, and I'll be surprised if we get any sweeps.

Detroit Tigers (95-67) vs New York (97-65)

The Yankees were the best team in the AL, but the talent difference between these two teams are not that huge. On offense, the Yankees got less than years from A-Rod, Teixeira, and Jeter (who did quietly build his batting average to .297 but didn't even reach 100 on OPS+), but got great years from Granderson and Cano. This might be the changing of the guard, but I'm not sure if that is a good thing. As for the Tigers, Miggy had a quietly great year, again with a .344/.448/.586. Alex Avila went from unknown to very good offensive catcher. V-Mart batted .330, which begs the question why the Red Sox ever got rid of him. Overall offense, the Tigers scored 80 fewer runs, but also played 81 games in an extreme pitchers park. The Yankees team OPS+ was 106, while the Tigers were 110+. They aren't just Verlander and a bunch of nothing.

On pitching, they really are pretty much Verlander and a bunch of nothing. Doug Fister has been brilliant since coming over from Seattle, but didn't really pitch great against any good teams in Detroit. Scherzer really fell off in the second half. The bullpen is good, especially in the back end with Valverde, but I've never had too much confidence in him. As much as the hitting is far closer than most people think, the Yankees have a surprising edge in pitching, The Yankees gave up just 657 runs (3rd fewest in the AL) and the Tigers gave up 711 (8th in the AL) despite having a great pitcher park. Verlander is great, but Sabathia is really 98% as good. A lot of the Tigers perceived edge in pitching is just the way Verlander has been mythologized this season.

Yes, Justin Verlander has been the most exciting pitcher in baseball this year. Yes, he is probably the best pitcher in the AL, but those two things are not the same (Clayton Kershaw had just as good of a year. Kershaw is in the NL, but plays in a good offensive division with Colorado and Arizona, and had better stats in most categories). Verlander's biggest draw is that 24-5 record, but if 2009 and 2010 thought us anything, it is that wins are meaningless. Three of the four Cy Young winners in that period had 13 (F. Hernandez), 15 (Z. Greinke) and 16 (T. Lincecum) wins. Verlander won 24, but really, that doesn't mean much. The rest of his stats are great, and are in all ways better than CC, but would I be surprised if the Yankees win one of the two possible Verlander starts? No, I won't. The Yankees are probably deeper at pitchers #3 and #4 (and Jim Leyland is promising he won't start Verlander Game 4). The Yankees have the far deeper bullpen. The Yankees are the better team.

Odd Stat That Doesn't Mean Much but is Interesting: The Yankees haven't beaten a team in the ALDS other than the Twins since 2001. They beat the Twins in 2003, 2004, 2009 and 2010, and were knocked out in the ALDS in 2002, 2005, 2006 and 2007.
Pick: Yankees in 5.

Tampa Bay Rays (91-71) vs Texas Rangers (96-66)

They met a year ago in the ALDS, in what was a series totally opposite to this one. In 2010, the Rangers were the surprise, winning the AL West for the first time since the 90's with a 91-71 record, and the Rays were already making their 2nd playoff appearance in two years at 96-66. The records are opposite, and so are the teams. The Rangers don't have the offense they did back when it was Tex, Kinsler, Young and Blalock along the infield, but their offense is simply better than that of the Rays. The Rangers were 1st in batting, 2nd in SLG and 2nd in OPS. They are deep, with 9 starters and their top 2 backups having OPSes above .700 and OPS+es ranging from 84 to 171. Josh Hamilton had another great year despite missing six weeks. Their biggest strength might be that they had the fewest strikeouts of any team in the AL.

The Rays aren't built to put up big offensive numbers, and even in 2008 in their apex, they weren't. BJ Upton had a really nice second half, and has shown he can go on power surges. What they all collectively do is draw walks and a lot of them (3rd most in the AL). They also play in a pitchers park that depresses some of their stats. All of them are solid, with their top 11 having seven players with an OPS+ above 115. That all said, it is clear that, and for the 2nd year in a row in this matchup, the Rangers have the hitting edge.

Ironically, the Rangers have the sizable pitching edge as well. It isn't that the Rays are bad, but that the Rangers quietly were really, really good in 2011. They had the 3rd best run differential (+178) in baseball behind the Yankees (+210) and the Phillies (+184), and a lot of that is pitching. Unless the Rays want to pitch Matt Moore as a starter, the Rays will have to pitch either someone on short rest, or pitch Wade Davis or Jeff Neimann, neither of whom are that great. Hellickson, Price and Shields are all good, but Price did not have a great end to his season. On the surface, the Rangers don't look to be better, but they play in an extreme hitter's park. All five starters have an ERA+ over 100. CJ Wilson put up great numbers all year long. Matt Harrison and Ariel Ogando have been solid all year. What makes it better for them is that they have the better bullpen too. The Rangers just have a better team on offense and defense.

Odd Stat That Doesn't Mean Anything but is Interesting: 6 times two teams have met in back-to-back ALDSes since 2001 (The Angels and Red Sox met three straight times, but in this excercise, that counts as two different back-to-backs), and the winner of the first meeting is 4-2 against the other team. The two times it switches was the 2002 Cardinals beat Arizona after losing in 2001, and the 2009 Angels beat the Red Sox after losing in 2008. The 2003-04 Yankees beat the Twins, the 2009-10 Yankees beat the Twins, the 2005-06 Cardinals beat the Padres, and the 2007-08 Red Sox beat the Angels.
Pick: Rangers in 4.


NL Coming Tomorrow

2011 NBA Playoff Picks

Man, the sports season just does not end (I'll have to be reminded of me saying this statement come July, when it is just baseball and the NFL possibly still locked out). March Madness one weekend, becomes the Masters the next weekend, and then that becomes the NBA playoffs. Finally, we get to see basketball each night that is played with actual, you know, plays and sets. Good basketball. Basketball that doesn't rely on three point shooting and zone defenses and slap-the-floor gritiness. Basically, it is basketball worth watching. Anyway, before I start rambling too much (again), I'll get to my picks.


Eastern Conference

1st Round

(1) Bulls over (8) Pacers 4-1

I think the Bulls are just a whole lot better. The Pacers have nice players, and remind me of a less-than-good Eastern Conference version of the Portland Trail Blazers, with one top player (Danny Granger) but lots of nice pieces. The Bulls, on the other hand, are just really, really good.


(2) Heat over (7) 76ers 4-0

Miami lucked out. They did not want to see the Knicks, and good on them for closing out the two seed and avoiding them. The 76ers just don't have that level that they can reach to possible beat the Heat. This could actually be counter-productive for the Heat who may get a false sense of security after breezing through round 1.


(3) Celtics over (6) Knicks 4-2

I think this will be a close series, but the Knicks just aren't a good matchup for the Celtics. They suffer against big size, which the Celtics have. The Knicks aren't great against the three, which the Celtics are good at. The Knicks struggle against premier point guards, and the Celtics have Rondo. That said, the Celtics have been an absolute mess (relatively) since the Perkins trade (more on that later).


(4) Magic over (5) Hawks 4-2

The Hawks are actually a good matchup for the Magic. Other than Dwight Howard, who no team truly matches up well with, the Hawks have advantages all over the place. They played them very well in the regular season, and as the Warriors in 2007 proved, regular season results shouldn't be discounted. In the end, the Magic are just better, mainly because of the man-beast that is Dwight Howard.


2nd Round

(1) Bulls over (4) Magic 4-2

I think this will be a much tougher series than most do. Dwight has been good against the Bulls, and Noah really can't stop him. For once, the Bulls don't have the advantage at the center position. The Bulls do have the advantage at point guard, as ever since that injury in 2009, hasn't been quite the same. What should be interesting is both teams really like to use their bench, so the team that does better in that area could decide the series.


(3) Celtics over (2) Heat 4-2

I trust that Shaq will be healthy. Why do I trust this? Mainly because I hate the Heat. That said, are we really going to let one game late in the season (a time where the Celtics have notoriously coasted the past couple years). The Celtics dominated the big moments of the first three meetings, and the first two didn't include Perkins. Perkins wasn't the reason the Celtics beat the Heat. He's a stopper. The reason is the rest of the team. Rondo is key, and Rondo should destroy what ever point guard the Heat try to throw at him.


Eastern Conference Finals

(1) Bulls over (3) Celtics 4-3

Good series. Good matchup. The Celtics have the experience, dominating the Eastern Conference the past three years. The Bulls are the young team, built in a deserving way, poised to own the East for years. Rondo vs. Rose should be spectacular. Noah vs Garnett should be as well. Just a great series, I really hope it happens. These are the two best defensive teams in the NBA, so this will essentially be the Ravens vs. Steelers of the NBA. Hopefully, like all those matchups in the NFL, this lives up to the billing.


Western Conference

1st Round

(1) Spurs over (8) Grizzlies 4-1

This is actually good news for Memphis, as they've never won a game in the NBA playoffs ever. The Grizzlies supposedly match up well with the Spurs, but that was with Rudy Gay, and two of the previous meetings (a Griz win and a close Spurs win) included Tim Duncan and then Tony Parker missing the games. Also, the Grizzlies tanked to play the Spurs. That shit won't work against the Spurs.


(2) Lakers over (7) Hornets 4-1

Not sure the Hornets win a game, but my guess is one time Chris Paul will just go Keyser Soze over Derek Fisher and Steve Blake. He's got one of those games in him. Other than that, without David West, the Hornets are hopeless. This is a one-sided series.


(3) Mavericks over (6) Blazers 4-3

I can't believe how many people love Portland, who always seems to be the stat-guys beloved team, a team that works a lot better in the statistical measures than on the actual court. The Mavericks also have Dirk, and historically have played the Blazers really, really well. Portland also scares me, because their best player is a post-player, and those usually don't work in crunch time. This will probably be a close series, but I trust the home team with the better closer (if not the best closer) in Dirk.


(5) Nuggets over (4) Thunder 4-2

This should be the best first round series, and as you can see, my only picked upset. Again, I think the Thunder are a team that looks a lot better on paper and in stat-guy's eyes then on the actual court. My biggest problem is that Russell Westbrook thinks he's as good as Kevin Durant, and is taking way too many shots these days. Also, the Nuggets can play defense now, and they love their coach and love each other. I know that sounds sappy, but this team has always been emotionally led, even in the Carmelo days. They also have the swagger and are virtually unbeatable in their current iteration at home.


2nd Round

(1) Spurs over (5) Nuggets 4-2

The Nuggets should bring out the best in the new Spurs. Both teams are extremely deep, both can run and hit threes, and both can play defense when necessary. I just feel that the Spurs have slightly better players, and they can play better defense when necessary. The Spurs also are more consistent day to day, so the Nuggets have the ability to play at level 10, but probably only for two games.


(3) Mavericks over (2) Lakers 4-2

Yup, you read it. Yup, I mean it. The Lakers are a weird team. They have the length, but the big lineup isn't their best at crunch time (no Artest on defense). The Mavs also have some things that work really well. First, no one on LA can guard Dirk at all. Secondly, the Mavs have enough bigs to throw at the Lakers, in Haywood and Stevenson off the bench to join Chandler. Also, they have the Beaboius factor, as his speed can give Fisher nightmares. Should be a fun series, and I just think that the Lakers think they can just push the "on" button, but sadly for them, the West is a lot better in 2011 than it was in 2010. The Lakers runs to the Finals have really been unimpressive over the years. They got a 8-5-3 seeds last year, and a Yoa-less Rockets team two years ago. The Mavs are the best second round opponent they've had.


Western Conference Finals

(1) Spurs over (3) Mavericks 4-2

Man, this should be a great series. These two teams always bring out the best in each other. The Spurs would die to see the Mavs again. They can run so much speed at that team, and the Mavs don't really defend the perimeter very well. The biggest problem can still be stopping Dirk, but Duncan has always done a good job, even in his advanced age. Both teams are deep and use their bench a lot, which helps the Spurs as their bench is just a bit better. Overall, the Spurs still owe the Mavs for the 2006 Second round, where the Mavs basically ended the Spurs run for two straight titles.


NBA Finals

(1) Spurs over (1) Bulls 4-2

Man, this would be a great series. Both games between these two teams were close, and the Bulls were at full strength each time. The Spurs have the experience. The Spurs also have no way of stopping Rose. However, the Bulls also aren't nearly as good stopping perimeter teams as they are at stopping post-up teams, and the new Spurs don't rely on Duncan and post-ups any more. About Timmay, he's prone for a great finals. His per-minute numbers have basically been as good as ever, and he is fully rested and ready.

Another reason I love the Spurs: no one loves them. It is strange. Here's a team that basically led the tough West wire-to-wire. Their record actually should be better, as a 6-game losing streak skews things. Of course, Duncan missed most of those games, and still, against four eventual playoff teams, the Spurs lost each game by less than 10 points. They played good even when they weren't playing good. Also, they didn't pad their record against all bad teams and struggle against good teams (like the 2008-09 Cleveland Cavaliers). They were 2-1 against the Lakers (throwing away the game where they rested everyone). 1-1 against Chicago and Miami, 2-1 against Boston, 4-2 against the Mavs. They've been the best team all year, and also the most under the radar. I say that's just when the Spurs strike, just like when everyone slept on them the whole of 2005 and 2007. That's just how the Spurs roll.


'Till Next Time.

Pack'n It In

Well, after going 8-3 picking playoff games last year, I went 1-2 in my abbreviated playoff picks. That said, that was an interesting Super Bowl. I'll get out my rambling thoughts on Super Bowl XLV.

- How else would I start? Congratulations to the Green Bay Packers, Aaron Rodgers, Ted Thompson, Mike McCarthy, and the rest of the crew there. They were the better team on Sunday. They overcome some huge injuries, battled through three straight road games, and closed out one of the most resilient teams in the NFL to win it all. The Patriots in 2001 beat a Rams team looking to cement itself as a dynasty, and then they went on to be a dynasty themselves. You never know, history could be repeating itself.

- That said, most likely, history will not repeat itself. Today started the yearly round of "Team (insert Super Bowl Champion Here) is poised to dominate the league for years to come." I've heard it every year. It is never that easy. The Saints were poised to do it coming into this year, but weird things happen. You need luck to win the Super Bowl these days, and luck doesn't come around that often. Want proof? The Super Bowl Champion has not won a playoff game the following year since the 2004 New England Patriots, who won their Wild Card game in 2005. Want further proof? Other than the Patriots, the streak goes back to the 2000 Ravens, who won their Wild Card game. Other than the 2003-2004 Pats, the last team to make the conference title game the next year was the 1997-1998 Broncos. Repeating is damn hard.

- Same for Aaron Rodgers. Everyone wants to crown him the "Best QB in the world." However, let's backtrack 12 months, when Drew Brees finished a Super Bowl run where he didn't throw an interception over three games. Everyone then crowned him the best QB in the NFL. He then proceeded to throw 22 interceptions the next year, and although his team went 11-5, wasn't exactly "best QB in the NFL" material. That title is fleeting. There is always the flavor of the week. Aaron Rodgers should savor this moment, because however great he might be, and however young and talented the Packers might be, nothing is guaranteed. If you told Dan Marino after his one Super Bowl appearance in 1984 or Brett Favre after winning the Super Bowl with a loaded Packers team in 1996 that you would never win a ring (or in Marino's case, get to the Super Bowl) again, they would have laughed at you.

- It gets annoying when people bring up the drops killing Aaron Rodgers night. The only bad drop was James Jones' in what could have been a touchdown. Of course, if the DB used proper technique and batted the ball down instead of trying to make a play and get a pick, it is an easy incompletion. Also, its James Jones, who drops the ball as much as Big Ben drops trou. The others weren't as bad. Nelson followed up his bad drop with a 30-yard gain the next play, and his "drop" on the first drive was a really tough catch. Rodgers played about as well as his stats show, which is a great performance. But let's not act like this was Joe Montana going 22-28 for 5 tds against the league's best scoring defense in Super Bowl XXIV.

- I still stand by my pick. I think if the teams play 10 times, the Steelers win 6. Despite losing the turnover battle 3-0, and despite missing a field goal, the Steelers still had a drive to win the game. The Packers, like they have so many times this season, didn't really put a team away. The Packers did nothing in the 3rd quarter for the second straight game, and if Rashard Mendenhall doesn't fumble that ball (or if Johnson doesn't stand there like a statue instead of realizing the ball was fumbled), I think the Steelers score a TD there, and since Rodgers was 2 for his last 9 up to that point in the 2nd half, I'm not sure the Packers could have come back.

- One last Packers' slight. This talk of "Oh, they were so resilient, with all those players on IR!" is so grating. Other than Ryan Grant and Jermichael Finley, can anyone name the other players on IR? Were there any other starters? One was Nick Barnett, but how about the guy who Charlie Peprah replaced? Anyone know him? This wasn't analogous to the Colts situation. The Colts lost talented, important starters. If the Colts lost their version of Nick Barnett and Atari Bigby (know where he plays? He's one of those IR guys), they would not have gone anywhere near 10-6.

- Also, in no way was Super Bowl XLV a great game. It was a good game, and compared to the junk that happened on Super Sunday in the 80's, it was a major step up. It would have been great but that last drive for the Steelers fizzled out about instantly, making the ending anti-climactic. The game overall was quite sloppy. The Packers were dropping passes, then they couldn't block for Rodgers. The Steelers committed turnovers, then missed a field goal so badly I thought they had signed Vanderjagt. I've watched every Super Bowl multiple times from Super Bowl XXXIV to now (except for Super Bowl XXXV - Ravens vs Giants). I remember every detail from a lot of those games. I doubt I will remember much about this game five years from now. The game was like Super Bowl XXXIX, where despite it being a 3 point game, and the Eagles having the ball with a minute to go down a field goal, it wasn't all that good of a game.

- The Halftime show was a joke. First of all, Slash should never have agreed to appear on stage with the Black Eyed Peas. Then, it gets annoying when instead of singing four songs completely, they do a medley of 10 songs. The Who did the same thing last year, and it ruined it. Also, what happened to having fans on the field for the halftime show. They used to do this each year I can remember, but instead they just had lit up performers who basically added nothing to the show. I please hope this shows that going with a current act is not at all better than going with a bunch of 50-60 year olds from the past.

- With that in mind, I really hope for Super Bowl XLVI, they go with Van Halen. They're recording a new CD right now (the first with Roth since 1984), and are supposedly going on tour at some point this year. Not sure they would agree to it, but similar acts have done halftime. If they can't get them, or don't want them, I would also recommend Aerosmith (although it's been done already), the Eagles (at least one group of Eagles should get to the Super Bowl), or if they want to go modern, Rihanna.

- There was nothing more annoying that media members (specifically Peter King) complaining about the weather in Dallas. Peter King even complained that the city didn't buy enough snowplows. Does Peter King realize that this was the biggest snowstorm in about 20 years? That the normal temperature in February is far warmer, or that in a city with a crippled education, they might have better things to spend money on than snow-plows for a snowstorm that happens once every two decades. Honestly, the media members are getting an all-expense paid trip to Dallas to do work; work that includes hob-knobbing with radio stations, players and attending the Super Bowl. Millions of Americans would volunteer to do that "work", so stop complaining that the temperature wasn't 72, and you had to drive in, you know, 6 inches of snow.

- The seating mess was ridiculous. That Jerry Jones was setting up seating that apparently had its stability questioned months ago, and the NFL okayed it was crazy. Does Jerry Jones really care that much about setting an attendance record. I would never bring the Super Bowl back to Dallas just to shove it in Jerry Jones' self-aggrandizing face. Honeslty, Indianapolis will probably put on a good time, but people will complain about how small and un-Dallasy it is, but I guarantee that at least all the people who bought tickets will be able to attend.


Overall, it was not the most fun of NFL seasons for me. The Raiders going 8-8 was fun, but I'll dwell on their missed opportunities that could've had them make the playoffs. However, other than that, it was a disaster. The Colts were ravaged with injuries at a rate I have never seen before. The Patriots flew to a 14-2 record (although their loss to the Jets gave me a great moment). In the end, a team I don't particularly care for won the Super Bowl, but such is life. After a near perfect 2009 season for me (God, how I still am scarred by Super Bowl XLIV and what could have been), it all evened out. I just hope 2011 will be a little bit better. The odds are against it, since the Colts are trying to do something that no other team has ever done: play the Super Bowl in its home stadium. However, no team had won twelve or more games seven straight years either (or 6 years, or 5, or 4). The Colts proved that possible.


On the baseball.....

Top 10 "Not In Our House" Playoff Games of the 2000s

These are the games that were close heading into the game. These were toss-up, or close to toss-up games heading in. The road teams were getting some buzz, getting some love. However, when the game was done, the game gave you the feeling of "There was no way they were losing at home today." These are the games that make you slap yourself for thinking the road team could win. These aren't just blowouts, games like the Raiders 27-0 win over Miami in 2000 or the Bucs 31-6 win over the 49ers in 2002. No, those games were obvious heading in. These were not, but after the performances of the home team, they should have been. Here are the Top-10 "Not In Our House" Playoff Performances of the 2000s.


10.) Steelers 35 Chargers 24, 2008 AFC Divisional


This was both a game that was not as close as the score indicated (it was 28-10 midway through the 4th quarter), and was in the balance at the two minute warning in the first half (10-7 Chargers lead). However, what took place in between those two events, where the Steelers outscored the Chargers 21-0 and ended any hope of the Chargers miracle run from 4-8 to the Divisional Playoffs continuing, was pure awesome football. The Chargers held the ball for exactly one play in the 4th quarter. The Steelers took the opening kick of the second half and drove for a touchdown (to make it 21-10). Then, after a long Darren Sproles kick return, the Steelers intercepted Philip Rivers on his next pass. They then were forced to punt, and the punt hit Eric Weddle in the helmet, which the Steelers then recovered, and ran out the clock in the quarter all the way to the one yard line. After a nice goal line stand by the Chargers, Rivers was sacked and the Chargers had top punt back. The Steelers this time put the game away. In the part in between, the Steelers ran 39 plays to the Chargers 4. Gained 177 yards to the Chargers -2. It was domination, and allowed the Steelers to go from playing a close game against a hot team late in the first half to easing through part one of their road to the title in 2008. Ben Roethlisberger showed why he was up to that point, the king of the 2004 QB Draft Class.


9.) Falcons 47 Rams 17, 2004 NFC Divisional


Despite being a #2 seed, there was reason to be skeptical of the Falcons. They had only outscored their opponents by 3 points through the season (mainly due to two losses - 56-10 to the Chiefs and 27-0 to the Buccaneers), and had been outgained. Nevermind the fact that the Rams were worse in all those numbers, the Rams in a dome was still a scary proposition. After trading TDs on the teams opening drives, everyone thought they were in for a shootout. They were, but one team did all the shooting. The Falcons ran for 327 yards, which is by far the most by any team in the 2000s. It was all three members of their DVD running attack (Dunn, Vick and Duckett). Dunn ran for 162 and 2 tds. Vick (who was a steady 12-16 for 82 yards and 2 tds passing) ran 8 times for 119 more yards. TJ Duckett put up 66 yards of his own. The Falcons, though, didn't stop by just throwing and running for scores. Allen Rossum returned a punt for a TD, and the Falcons, who lead the NFL in sacks in 2004, sacked Bulger four times including once for a safety. When it was all said and done, the Falcons had scored the last 26 points in the game, and had delivered the final KO to the Rams "Greatest Show on Turf" era (they haven't been back to the playoffs since). It was Michael Vick's best day in a Falcons' uniform, and for one day, the Georgia Dome was the hottest place in the NFL.


8.) Steelers 27 Ravens 10, 2001 AFC Divisional


2001 was the forgotten year in the Steelers-Ravens rivalry. The Ravens were the defending champs, and the Steelers had missed the playoffs three straight years. Those things were not going to continue. After going 13-3, the Steelers had to face their rival for the third time. The Steelers had lost to the Ravens in Heinz Field earlier that year, but this was no repeat. In Heinz Field's first playoff game, the terrible towels waved like they had never waved before. The Steel Curtain would have been envious of the defensive stats the Steelers put up. They limited the Ravens to 150 yards and just 7 first downs. They sacked QB Elvis Grbac 4 times, picked him off 3 more times, and held the Ravens to 22 yards rushing. The Steelers moved the ball with ease against the Ravens defense, and controlled the game from start to finish. There was no doubt who the best defensive team in the AFC was in 2001. This would be the start of a decade-long rivalry, and although there were two more memorable meetings in the playoffs later in the decade, neither could match the pure intensity and domination of this one. The Steelers laid the hammer down with a ferociousness that would make Jack Lambert wet, and that is a hard thing to do.


7.) Broncos 27 Patriots 13, 2005 AFC Divisional


The Patriots entered the game a tidy 10-0 in the playoffs under Belichick and Brady. The Broncos entered the game having not won in the playoffs since John Elway capped off his career in Super Bowl XXXIII. However, these were the new Broncos. With the league's third ranked defense and seventh ranked offense (and second best rushing attack) the Broncos were balanced. More importantly, the Broncos matched up beautifully against the Patriots, having beaten them soundly earlier in the year. The game did not start out too well for the Broncos, as they were being outplayed through most of the first half, and were lucky to be down just 3-0. However, they forced back-to-back fumbles, turned them into 10 points, and went into halftime up 10-3. In the second half, the Broncos set the new Mile High on fire. In what was easily the loudest, most energized game in Invesco Field history, they Broncos battered Brady repeatedly in the second half, and the hits, while not turning into any sacks, made their mark. Brady, to avoid being hit, lofted a pass into the end zone on 3rd and goal (with the Broncos up just 10-6). Champ Bailey picked it off, raced 99 yards, and one play later, it was 17-6, and the invincibility of the Patriots was over. The Broncos finished if off by going up 24-6, and the Patriots continued to make every mistake possible in the raucous stadium. Adam Vinatieri missed a field goal. Troy Brown muffed a punt. Tom Brady looked confused and looked absolutely Favrian, flinging the ball around. John Lynch capped the win with a juggling interception of Brady. It was the perfect way to end the Patriots reign.


6.) Colts 20 Ravens 3, 2009 AFC Divisional


The Colts record after resting their starters before a bye was not good (they had won games previously after just resting starters without the bye). In 2005 and 2007, the Colts lost their divisional round game at home, and the odd year curse would surely reappear against a Ravens team that throttled the Pats 33-14 in Foxboro, wouldn't it? After driving 62 yards on their first drive, and tying the game at 3, the Ravens looked ready to make it three straight home losses after byes, or at least make it interesting. However, that would be the last time the Ravens would even enter the red zone. Against a defense that made Tom Brady look like Jeff George the week before, Manning was great, hitting receivers in ungodly small windows time and time again. He engineered a perfect two minute drive to make it 17-3 right before half. It was pointless, since the Colts only needed 6. The Colts defense held the Ravens to 84 yards on their next 8 possessions. They turned the Ravens over 4 times in the game, held Ray Rice in check and were able to eliminate any possibility of the Ravens coming remotely close to beating them. In the first playoff game in Lucas Oil Stadium, the fans didn't know if the Colts from 2005 and 2007 would arrive. Luckily for them, the Colts who went 14-0 in the 14 games they tried in that year arrived, and the Colts dominated a team that had come in on a tremendous high.


5.) Bears 39 Saints 14, 2006 NFC Championship


The Saints were the sentimental favorite. Forget 2009, these were the miracle Saints. In the first year back in New Orleans, with a rookie coach and a QB who had a torn rotator cuff and labrum coming into the season, and a team that finished the 2005 season 3-13, the Saints were able to run out to a first round bye. The Bears did start the season 7-0, and led the NFC wire-to-wire (winning it by 3 games), but they had Rex Grossman at QB. It was Rex Grossman against Drew Brees. Luckily for Grossman, however, he had a defense and a running game on his side, as well as perfectly wintry Chicago conditions and a jacked up crowd in soldier field. When the Bears forced fumbles on back to back drives early, it was already a sign that there was no way the Bears were actually going to lose this game. The game was basically over when the Bears ran it 8 straight times with Thomas Jones, gained 66 yards and scored a TD to make the game 16-0. Drew Brees did throw for gobs of yards, and the Saints would make it interesting, but his safety resulting from an intentional grounding in the end zone would ice it. The Bears would pour on points as the snow intensified (along with the crowd). The Bears ended the game scoring 23 unanswered, running for 196 yards, sacking Drew Brees 3 times and forcing four turnovers against the league's top ranked offense. It was clinical efficiency by the NFC's best defense, and as they proved, best team.


4.) Colts 41 Broncos 10, 2003 AFC Wild Card


In Week 16, in a game that mattered, the Broncos went into Indianapolis and pummeled the Colts 31-17, outgaining them 465-183, rushing 54 times for 227 yards. It was pure domination. Couple that with the fact that Manning was 0-3 in the playoffs and the outcome of the Wild Card game seemed pretty obvious. It wasn't close at all. It was a blowout of epic porportions, but just the opposite way of the one-sided affair three weeks earlier. Peyton Manning got the playoff monkey off his back. The Colts didn't punt. The Colts didn't come close to punting. They racked up 479 yards. Peyton Manning didn't only win a playoff game, but tied an NFL record with four TD passes in the first half. The RCA Dome was basically a party zone for four quarters, with the Colts up 31-3 at halftime. Brandon Stokley caught 4 balls for 144 yards and 2 tds. Marvin added 7 catches for 133 yards and two more tds. Despite the Broncos actually running the ball pretty well, the Colts defense added to the fun, sacking Plummer twice, picking him off two more times and giving the ball back to the Colts offense that was about as perfect as any offense could be. In fact, as far as Manning was concerned, they were perfect, as Manning tossed up the second perfect passer rating in playoff history with a tidy line of 22-26 for 377 yards and 5 tds (more tds than incompletions). It might not have been Steve Young getting the monkey off his back with 6 tds in the Super Bowl, but Peyton Manning was on top of the world, and the RCA Dome was witnessing offense better than it had ever been played.


3.) Seahawks 34 Panthers 14, 2005 NFC Championship


The Seahawks were criminally underrated, despite outscoring their opponents 452-271 and having the NFL's best offense. The Panthers were a tad overrated after their 29-21 win in Chicago the week earlier and the sickening brilliance of Steve Smith. That said, there is no better explanation as to the domination of this game more than Steve Smith. Smith had 22 catches for 302 yards and 3 tds in his first two playoff games in 2005. In the Title Game, he had 5 catches for 33 yards (with just one coming in the first half). The Seahawks employed a weird moving zone to stop Steve Smith, and with him eliminated, the Panthers could do nothing. The Seahawks shut down the Panthers, giving up one punt return for a TD and a garbage time td (when the score was 34-7). In the process they picked off Delhomme three times and limited the Panthers to 36 yards rushing on 12 carries. On offense, they were just as amazing. Hasselbeck was brilliant, going 20-28 with two tds. Shaun Alexander, against the 4th ranked rush defense, put up 132 yards and two tds. However, three things defined the domination the Seahawks laid on everyone's favorite underdog team. First, was Seneca Wallace's amazing over the shoulder catch on the Seahawks first TD drive. Next was Walter Jones blocking Mike Rucker about driving him about 20 yards downfield. Finally, was the Qwest Field crowd. For three straight hours, the place was as loud as the boeing factory about 40 miles away. That was the loudest crowd I have ever heard in an NFL game, and it seemed to impact both teams. The Panthers seemed star-struck and overwhelmed. The Seahawks played with a never-ending passion and in the end were able to hoist the Halas trophy in front of the loudest 12th man ever.


2.) Patriots 20 Colts 3, 2004 AFC Divisional


This one hurt. This game happened before I knew that offenses, no matter how great, how explosive, were stoppable. The 2004 Colts were the best offense I had seen in my life. I hadn't been cognizant of the NFL enough from 1999-2001 to fully enjoy the Greatest Show on Turf, so the 2004 Colts were the team that opened my eyes to how great an offense can be. With their performance in this game, the 2004 Patriots opened my eyes to just how great a defense can be. This is the game that forever made me love defensive football. Losing in this game didn't hurt as a Colts fan. We were outclassed, outdone by a defense that wouldn't let their team lose (plus a running game that allowed the Pats to hold the ball for nearly 40 minutes). Manning played well, but his running game, run defense, and receivers let him down. Brady played well, but the true star was Corey Dillon. Brought to New England because he wanted a shot at even getting to the playoffs (something he never had done until then), Dillon ran for 144 yards and a game sealing TD. The game was actually close at halftime (6-3), and the turning point was when Tony Dungy punted on the Pats 49 on 4th and 1 on the Colts possession to start the second half. The Patriots went 87 yards for a TD (which took eight minutes off the clock), forced a quick punt, and then drove 94 yards for a TD (which took seven minutes), making the game 20-3. It was the most dominating 20 minute stretch in the Patriots dynasty, as they cooly finished off the team many predicted to upset the Patriots. The fans made the stadium into a winter wonderland, as for once, Gillette was rocking and ready to go. The stadium that is now notorious for it providing a lack of a home-field advantage was as loud as any. However, the most memorable image is Bill Belichick, right after the game ended, calmly dusting off his hands, telling evreryone "our work is done." There was no way the Colts were beating the Patriots that day.


1.) Vikings 34 Cowboys 3, 2009 NFC Divisional


The Cowboys were the hottest team in the NFL entering the divisional round of the playoffs. Sure, the Chargers had won eleven straight, but they rested their starters. The Cowboys had outscored their last three opponents 75-14. They had finally won a playoff game. They had the #2 offense in terms of yards. The Vikings were 12-4, and more importantly, were 8-0 in the Metrodome, but the team had to overcome the drama of a chilly relationship between Chilly and Favre at the end of the season, and a 3-3 finish. The game started with the Cowboys picking up yards, but in field goal range, Ray Edwards sacked Romo, who fumbled. The Vikings recovered. After trading punts, Brett Favre lofted a perfect pass to Sidney Rice, just past a Cowboys DB. The Vikings were up 7-0, and the game was already over. In one of the loudest stadiums, the Vikings faithful were louder than the Superdome crowd that would get all the love in the 2009 postseason. Tony Romo could do nothing against a pass rush that resembled the Giants in Super Bowl XLII. The main star was Ray Edwards, who sacked Romo three times, but Jared Allen chipped in with another, and the DTs shut down the Cowboys supposed three-headed monster and added a sack of their own. By the second half, the pressure from the d-line and the crowd had Romo ducking and flinching even before getting hit.


On the other side of the ball, the Vikings were on fire. Adrian Peterson was held in check. Sidney Rice, however, was not. The recipient of three touchdowns from Brett Favre, Sidney Rice ran through, over, around and past the Cowboys #2 ranked scoring defense. It was a sight to behold. Brett Favre added a 4th touchdown (a personal playoff record) late in the contest to make it 34-3, which was questioned as running it up the next day. It is the playoffs. There is no running it up there. The Vikings knew this and poured it on. In a game where despite having the superior record and being undefeated at home, the Vikings were only three point favorites and picked by many to lose (10 out of 12 ESPN experts picked the Vikings to go down), the Vikings were in complete control the whole time. Their defense kicked the crap out of the Cowboys in every way. The crowd was loving it, and so were the millions of Cowboys-Haters nationally. Just when people thought the Cowboys had changed, and that this year would be different, they were hammered in the most fun way possible. At least in 2010 they got creamed in the divisional round, and not Week 17 like the year earlier. It was Brett Favre's last amazing day, and boy was it amazing. With his performance, the crowd's noise, and the unrelenting pressure, there was no team in the NFL that could have gone into the Metrodome that day and hung close.


More Super Bowl stuff to come.

Stand Up For History

Did you hear? There is a lot of history surrounding the two Super Bowl teams. The Steelers, with their rings and towels, and steroid abuse in the Steel Curtain days. The Packers, with their Lombardi, and Lambeau Field and Diary. Anyway, after what seemed like the exact same game played out twice (team dominates first half, somehow the game stays close until the 4th quarter).


Players of the Week - BJ Raji/Cullen Jenkins

They comprise the defensive unit that usually does not get much love on the Packers. Yet, they were the most impressive of the day. BJ Raji and Cullen Jenkins applied constant pressure on all three Bears quarterbacks. They stuffed the run. They forced QBs into mistakes, and BJ Raji bailed out the Packers offense that was totally stagnant in the second half. BJ Raji perfectly executed his drop into the zone to pick of Hanie and get the winning score for the Packers. Cullen Jenkins was an absolute monster throughout the game. He was blatantly held on what should have been a safety early on. Cullen Jenkins and BJ Raji should be able to dominate the Steelers, especially if Pouncey doesn't play.


Goat of the Week - Lovie Smith

I didn't mind his first punt, passing up a 52 yard field goal and it was downed inside the 5. The next one, which was punted from the 31 and went into the end zone: that was too much. Lovie Smith's defense had no answer early for that same deep in play to Greg Jennings (not sure why the Packers didn't just use that route ten more times). Lovie also botched the QB situation. He should have asked Cutler to get into street clothes or whatever. He should have waited till the 4th quarter to bring in Caleb Hanie so if Hanie sucked, he could have switched back. Not a great day for Lovie Smith, who, though he deserves one anyway, was


Surprise of the Week - Rashard Mendenhall

Against a pass defense that was on an amazing hot streak, the Steelers needed their running game to step up. Mendenhall not only did that, but he abused the 3rd ranked rush defense. Why it was a surprise was because Mendenhall had not put up 100 yards since Week 11 against Buffalo and had only three 100-yard games all year. Of course, he got over 100 yards in the first half alone. He exhibited amazing patience, waiting for holes to develop. He was impossible to tackle on first contact. Mendenhall played inspired football, and with the ability of the Packers pass defense, the Steelers might need more of that later come Super Bowl Sunday.


Disappointment of the Week - Aaron Rodgers' Immortality

I guess it is hard to stay amazing in the playoffs. There is nothing wrong with Aaron Rodgers having a statistically bad game. It happens to every QB. Luckily for him his team won the game anyway, and he gets a Super Bowl in a dome, but after the first drive, Rodgers was not good. Other than that deep in to Greg Jennings and Jordy Nelson, which was a great zone beater, Rodgers struggled. He struggled when the Bears went to man. His second pick was what really allowed the Bears to get back into the game, taking points off the board for the Packers. There is some say that he sustained a minor concussion after the helmet-to-helmet hit by Peppers, and that is why his accuracy went to shit late in the game, but even then, he could not put the Bears away with any third down conversions. Sadly for Aaron, the defense he faces only gets better.


Team Performance of the Week - Bears After Caleb Hanie Came In

Down 14-0, with the third string QB playing, most teams would have laid down. The Bears did the opposite. Every player upped his game. Peppers and the rest of the d-line started getting good pressure. The defense totally stuffed the run. Matt Forte ran like Mendenhall. The receivers started making plays. Caleb Hanie looked good because the Bears really raised their game, and good to them. They did not quit when Cutler got hurt, and it takes a great team to not. Brian Urlacher's defense played inspired football for a whole half, limiting the Packers to 110 yards in the second half, and the offense came really close to somehow forcing OT.


Team Letdown of the Week - Jets' Run Defense

Third ranked run defense? Against a team that was obviously going to run? That was awful. Rex Ryan should have just talked smack again, because his team was totally flat. The Steelers just smashed the Jets run defense in the mouth in the first half. It got better in the second half, but the damage was already done. I thought the Steelers could move the ball, but not that well in a confined period of time.


Story That Will Be Beaten Into the Ground the Next Two Weeks - Two Great QBs

This is a real storyline, but after their respective performances on Championship Sunday, they aren't exactly "hot" QBs going into the Super Bowl. Aaron Rodgers can become 2010's version of Drew Brees, version 2009. Ben Roethlisberger can join Tom Brady in the 3-Super Bowl club (amazingly, he's the only other guy with three - Bradshaw and Montana both have four). However, QBs don't "win" games, teams do. Ben Roethlisberger might own two Super Bowl rings, but he was abhorrent in the first one. Rings are not how QBs should be judged. Yesterday proved that well. Aaron Rodgers was outplayed by Caleb Hanie. Ben Roethlisberger was vastly outplayed by Mark Sanchez. Rodgers and Roethlisberger won. Sanchez had a whale of a second half against a tough defense on the road, and he's now a loser who can't win the big one (despite a very good track record in the playoffs).


Story That Should be Beaten Into the Ground - New Dynasties

The Steelers have a chance to win three Super Bowls in six years. That is dynasty status. The Steelers also have a pretty young team (Roethlisberger is only 28). They draft well, scout well and that defense is continually changing parts and staying great. The only problem with the case to make the Steelers a dynasty is that they aren't consistently great (the three non-Super Bowl seasons had two years where they missed the playoffs). The Packers also have a good stable of young players, and a good defense that churns out great players. The Packers have the ability to start a new dynasty, and rule the NFC along with the likes of Atlanta and such. These are special organizations right now, and should set up for a great Super Bowl.

Championship Sunday Picks

Just a couple more knocks and laughs at the Pats before we start breaking down Sunday's two big games.

1.) The Patriots become the first team ever to lose at home after going 8-0 at home in the regular season in back to back seasons.

2.) The Patriots become the first team ever to have a scoring differential over 200 and not win a single playoff game.

3.) Bill Belichick becomes just the second coach ever to have two 14+ win seasons that did not end in a Super Bowl title. George Seifert is the other one.

4.) Tom Brady becomes just the second QB ever to have two 14+ win seasons that did not end in a Super Bowl title. Peyton Manning (sad face) is the other one.

Now, on to the Title Games.


NFC Championship


Green Bay Packers (-3) @ Chicago Bears

State of the Teams: The Packers are easily the first 6-seed ever to be favored in a conference title game. Hell, even the 2008 Eagles were underdogs in Arizona (against a Cards team they beat 48-21). The Packers did indeed split with Chicago, including losing the only meaningful game they played against the Bears (I actually wrote about that game). The media seems to not care about that, because Aaron Rodgers had a great game in a dome against a mediocre defense. The Packers have found a nice running game in James Starks, but the best runner on Saturday was again Aaron Rodgers. The Packers defense was fast and got a ton of pressure against what was a good o-line.

The Bears, on the other hand, won convincingly in a game that was definitely closer than the 35-24 score shows. It was really 35-10 before the Bears went all prevent. They got great pressure on Hasselbeck, even though the Matthew has a tremendously quick release. Cutler himself had the nice YPA day that he normally does, exposing the Seahawks secondary, in the snow no less. The Bears absolutely shut down the Hawks running game, one that was good the week before. Hester was only given two true chances to return a punt, and one return went to midfield.


The Game: The matchups favor Chicago. Rodgers is playing out of his mind (more on that later), but he has struggled in his career against Chicago, with a 91.1 rating over the past two years (which compared to his QB rating against everyone else is struggling). Cutler has struggled as well against Green Bay in 2009, but played great against them with Denver, and had two good enough games this year. The real advantage comes with the Bears defense against Green Bay's offense. The Bears D first has great familiarity with the Packers. They also play them extremely well. The Tampa-2 Bears totally took out the run this year (3.2 ypc). They forced Rodgers into short passes, as they tackle well enough to limit the YAC numbers of the Packers. The Packers should also be able to contain the Bears offense, but in the game that mattered, the Bears were able to move the ball. The Bears also have a great edge on special teams, which matters. In big playoff games, teams for whatever reason get the guts to kick to Devin Hester. Hester already has returned a kick for a TD.


The Pick: I'm picking the Bears to cover and win. It boggles my mind that the Bears are underdogs at home, considering they have a better seed, were really impressive last week and have beaten the Packers in their only meaningful game against them (and held them to 10 points in a game that meant nothing to the Bears and everything for the Packers). Aaron Rodgers has been amazing (48-63 for 546 yards with 6 tds and no picks for a 133.4 rating). Yes he has. But that means nothing in the upcoming game. The NFL is a week to week league. Players can be hot and drop off immediately. Just to show this, here are one Peyton Manning's numbers in his first two playoff games in 2003 (including one in 13-3 Kansas City): 44-56 for 681 yards and 8 tds and no picks for a 156.9 rating (that's almost perfect for two straight games). Those numbers, amazingly enough, blow Rodgers' out of the water, which is hard to do. Manning's numbers the next game: 23-47 for 237 yards and 1 td and 4 picks in a loss in snowy New England, a team he struggled against and a team with a bad field. Almost a totally analogous situation here. Bears take it in a sloppy game.

Packers 17 Bears 23 (CHI)


AFC Championship


New York Jets @ Pittsburgh Steelers (-3.5)

The State of the Teams: The Jets enter the game on an obvious high. Their won over the Patriots was legendary and huge. Their zone defense stuffed the middle of the field, and due to New England's inability to get deep, they had nothing. The Jets crushed New England's defense, running down their throat, and Mark Sanchez played fine, but his wide receivers were amazing. Santonio Holmes' TD catch was one of the best catches I have seen ever. It was a ridiculous play, and the Jets receivers have been doing that all playoffs long.

The Steelers defense has never been better. Don't be fooled by the 24 points. 7 of those came via a defensive TD, and two others were due to short fields (one was a so-so pass interference). The Steelers held the Ravens, who came in averaging 150 yards rushing over the last two months, to 35 yards rushing (on 18 carries). They held the Ravens to a hilarious 126 yards on 53 plays. Ben Roethlisberger was his usual playoff self. Not totally accurate, but made huge plays when he had to. He had two td passes, including a sweet throw to Hines Ward. His throw to Antonio Brown was great as well. Both teams enter into the game playing well.


The Game: The matchups favor both defenses (amazing, huh?). The Steelers should be able to swallow the Jets running game, and the Jets should do the same. However, this is a bigger deal for the Jets, who have relied on the running game in both playoff wins. There is no way the could have beated Indy without the running game (Sanchez was average at best in that game), and the Jets will need him to step up. Luckily for him, the Steelers pass defense is not nearly as good as its run defense. Santonio Holmes and Braylon Edwards are good enough to make hay of Ike Taylor/Bryan McFadden/Willie Gay. The Jets pass defense is good, but it needs to blitz Ben more. The problem is that Ben won't be a sitting duck like Brady. He will hold onto the ball (something Brady did), but won't be as easy to get down, and if he runs, he can throw better on the move. Roethlisberger also has the receivers to go deep on New York, which is possible. The Jets also have the advantage on special teams with Brad Smith expected to play. The Steelers are better than they normally are on kick coverage and kick returns, so it is not the huge advantage that the Bears have over the Packers.


The Pick: I'm picking the Steelers, maybe by a lot. Actually, I doubt the Steelers will score enough to make it a real blowout, but they should bottle the Jets totally. Mark Sanchez, when forced to throw in the playoffs, has not had good results. It only happened once, last year in Indy, but when Shonn Greene left the game and the run game went away, Sanchez struggled at the Jets failed to score a point in the second half. The Steelers have a historically good rush defense. I don't see their run game doing anything on Sunday, and all the pressure will be on Sanchez against a pass rush that was at its normal best on Sunday.

Jets 13 Steelers 24 (PIT)

The Revival of Dome Field Advantage

Before we start the weekly wrap-up, I have four things to get to:

1.) 8-2 so far. Hell yeah!! That is picking. Now, if I were only 21 and "restricting" myself to the confines of Las Vegas, I would be rolling around in that 300,000 Maybach Diddy's 16 year-old just got.
2.) I went to Subway, and was victimized by the horrible trend that has entered the Subway sector. I had two seperate people make the Sub, with the first putting in the meat, cheese and putting said Sub in the toaster, and then the other taking it out of the toaster, and adding the vegetables/sauce. Now, this seems normal, but I am always (and by always I mean roughly 99.999999% of the time) subjected to some lazy slob shitbrain to tend to the second half. This makes no sense. Like today, I had a A Class Subway Sub-Maker for that first half, and a sneezing, snivelling Latino for that second half (I mention the Latino part becuase I always feel awkward saying Jalepeno in front of them, like I'm doing some subtle joke at their heritage). The first part is the easy part, and if snivvellus manages to get some nasal fluids on the sub, the toaster will burn those little bacteriums away. Then, the second half is complicated, especially the folding and cutting. I want the pro for that half. Anyway, in conclusion, the Subway on 8th gets a mega Sub Fail.
3.) I fucking HATE Roger Goodell, the NFL commisionner. Hate him with every platelete of my blood-curling body. He hits every nerve that I contain (and even the nerves I am yet to contain). He has had this job for nearly four years now, and has done nothing to put the league in a better state than Paul Tagliabue. Under Tagliabue, there was not one labor strife, no lockouts or strikes or replacement players. Nothing but peace. Under Tagliabue, the league's revenues increased tenfold, and football cemented itself as America's true past-time (other than doughnuts). Under Goodell, the league has foolishly tried to expand to 18 games, move teams to LA and try to get Londoners to love the NFL. To put it into perspective, there is a better chance that I have a one night stand with Alyson Hannigan (yes, the "Band Camp" one) than there is of football catching on in Europe. Goodell's 18 games idea is even worse. 16 games is perfect, its a square-number for fucks sake. No one wants 18 games but greedy billionaire owner. Sure, let's appease them at the expense of our product. Finally, it's his idea of incentivitizing playing starters in meaningless games that ended it for me. How is this a good idea? First, say teams comply with this Stalinist measure, then what, you are rewarding teams GOOD enough to rest starters with extra picks. Making the rich teams richer? Great idea. Then, this year, when the Colts "pissed in the face of History" as many a sportswriter labelled it, and the Saints rested their way to three straight losses, each team took heat, and blasted back by going to the Super Bowls. It will never happen, but either way Goodell will think of another brilliant idea to fuck up the NFL.
4.) This is why the media sucks at actually reporting what happens, and goes mercilessly for stories:

• Momentum Matters. This was the big theme entering the playoffs. The Colts rested, the Saints rested, the Vikings were 2-3 down the stretch. Those teams won their first playoff game by a combined 99-20. The Cowboys, Jets and Patriots didn't rest and are no longer playing. The Cardinals rested and then beat the same team the just rested to. Momentum matters as much as the fatness ratio of their o-lineman. Actually, that probably matters more.
• The Chargers: 8 of SI's "experts" picked the playoffs at the start. 7 of them had the Chargers going to the Super Bowl, including lead experts Peter King, Don Banks and Ross Tucker. They were the team that couldn't lose, even though they had so many discernable flaws. They were the team that blinded the media with Phil River's fount of youth deathstare. Somehow, everyone forgot that they are perennial playoff chokers, and except for lucky, close wins over the Colts, had done nothing in the playoffs. The, as I expected, flamed out in their first game to the Jets.
• Home-Field doesn't matter, especiall in domes. Record of home teams not in domes: 0-3 (Jets over Bengals, Ravens over Pats, Jets over Chargers). Record of home teams in domes: 7-0 (Boys over Birds, Cards over Cheese, Colts over Ray's, Vikes over Boys, Saints over Cards, Colts over Rex's, Saints over Favres). Dome's are, if anything, more important in these days where outside of a select few venues (Baltimore, Seattle) home crowds in outdoor places are utter crap. Go Dome or Go.... build a Dome (I would never say "Home" there)

End of Rants!!!!


Player of the Week - Pierre Garcon, WR Indianapolis

Believe me, I wanted to put Peyton here, but one Peyton gushing article is enough for one week. Let's celebrate the Haitian Frenchy Garcon (all Colts fans call him Frenchy, because his name is French. This is in NO WAY a dig at his Haitian roots as some stupid Jets fan claimed on the Colts blog 18to88.com). First, he is playing for Haiti, motivated to succeed by the very disaster that took so many of his bretheren's lives. It truly is tragic what happened in Haiti, and Garcon playing well does by no means diminish the problems still going on there, but makes what Garcon is doing so much more special. Here is a guy who already had the pressure of a fanbase and the legend of Marvin to live up to. True, Marvin Harrison was not great in the playoffs, but he was the most beloved Colt not named Peyton. It was essentially Garcon's job to replace him. In the biggest game in the history of Lucas Oil Stadium, the stadium that Peyton and Marvin built, Garcon played a game that would make Marvin proud. He made sick catch after sick catch. Sure, the throws were perfect, but that still does not make the catches easy. Frenchy had guys draped all over him, and caught the ball with a Marvinian-authority. Finally, the shot of Frenchy holding up the Haitian flag and draping it over the Lamar Hunt trophy nearly ended my no-cry new year's resolution. This man will never be Marvin, and that is a standard that no one should be responsible to uphold. However, for one night, he was out there, contorting himself, nabbing passes out of the air with ease. Frenchy, we all adore you.

Goat of The Week - Rex Ryan, HC NYJ

Yup, the Vikings deserve an entire section just for themselves. Rex Ryan talked all week, saying he had blitzes that "Manning has never seen in his life." When asked what they would do when the Colts went to three-wide, he said "Manning will sit on the ground." Rex Ryan was admittedly gracious in defeat, but what other choice did he had. He called the Jets the favorite in the whole tournament. He scheduled the parade down the canyon of heroes before it started. He even had the gall to say the Colts "disrespected" the Jets by pulling their starters in the Week 16 game, even though if the Colts did not pull those starters, the Jets would have been golfing three weeks ago. Rex Ryan threw blitz after blitz at Manning, and Manning, save for the first two drives, handled them all perfectly. Manning was amazing, just holding Ryan up by the ankles and beating his face repeatedly. To see Ryan helpless and fuming on the sidelines after talking smack to a team that had yet to lose gave him an automatic berth into this category.

Surprise of the Week - Tracy Porter, CB Saints

People might not know, but Jabari Greer is as shut-down a corner as it gets (Revis included), which means that the Tracy Porter side of the field is often targeted. Bernard Berrian played well, but Porter forced two fumbles and was able to make the interception that allowed the media to call Brett Favre out as the playoff choker he so very much is. Trace Porter perfectly caused that fumble, punching it out with perfect form. That saved at least a field goal. I figured Jabari Greer would be able to slow down Sidney Rice or Harvin or whoever was put on that side of the field. I never expected Tracy Porter to play that well. My Player of the Week will have a hard time beating the Surprise of the Week in Miami.

Dissapointment of the Week - Jet's Running Game

Number one in the NFL? They were supposed to run all over the Colts "undersized" o-line. The Colts could stop the Ravens, becuase Ray Rice was "shifty" and "finesse" not "power" like the Jets. So, the Jets ran for 86 yards, exactly half of their yearly average. And even before he got injured, Shonn Greene had only 41 yards in 10 carries. Not terrible, but not dominant as every J-E-T-S fan was so assured would happen. Maybe, just maybe, the Colts are much better at stopping the run when they want to, but for a team that talks as much as they do, they ran awfully.

Team Performance of the Week - Indianapolis Colts Offense

Jets Total Defense: 250.2 yards per game. Colts: 461 yards.
Jets Pass Defense: 167.3 yards per game. Colts: 360 yards.
Jets Scoring Defense: 14.9 ppg. Colts: 30.
Colts Rushing: 78.3 ypg. Colts on Sunday: 101 yards.

The Colts played like the offense that set the league on fire from 2003-2007. They were not exactly as dominant in many parts of this year, but they were vintage on Sunday, against the league's best defense just to add an extra level of brilliance. I have never seen them better against a defense that good. There is something that makes me sad, as I may never see the Colts offense play that well again. However, even if I don't, I will always have this game to turn back to.

Team Laydown of the Week - Minnesota Vikings Ability to Hold Onto Ball

Honestly, the Vikings were the better team. They outgained, outrushed, outpassed and outsacked the Saints. They were the better team in every conceivable way. However, they seemed to play the game with goo-gone on their gloves. Peterson fumbles more than the Raiders' coaches attack women, so that was no surprise. But it got comical, with Favre fumbling an exchange, then throwing two inconsciable interceptions. Berrian fumbled, and Harvin fumbled on an already terrible end-around. If the Vikings just decided to not fumble, and ran normal plays, they would have won by 30. They were dominant, yet the Saints just never went away. Anyway, in the end of the day, the team that deserved to go to Miami is going home, and Favre ended another NFC Title Game with another interception. After it ended, the joy in the Bayou was enough to forget just how much the Vikings did to lose the game, but they did. The Vikings deserve to be playing the Colts, but the football Gods shined on the team that ethically deserved to. Than (football) God for that.

Special Image to Remember this Weekend!!

The Beatification

Jay Feely split the uprights, 17-6 Jets. Down 11, to the NFL's best defense, and I was not the least bit nervous, and the sole reason is the man pulling the trigger for the league's version of an AK-47. Manning. That was all I needed to know and to see to make me feel like this normally large lead was just the Colts spotting a team points. I've seen Manning come back from 35-14, 27-10, 31-14, 17-0, 15-0 and 31-10. I've seen him come back from 21-3 in that same round of the playoffs, against a team with a better offense and a defense led by a more master-mindery mastermind. I've seen him lead the largest comeback in Championship Game history. This was nothing. I was not surprised that within 10 game minutes, the Colts were up, sweeping the leg of any Karate-Kid like upset that the Jets were planning. It was over. Manning had come, the game was done.

Pierre Garcon was great and so was Austin Collie, but in the end it is all about Manning. The Jets did a great job of taking out Manning's top-2 targets, contracts and injuries "took out" two other top Manning targets by week 2 (Marvin and Anthony Gonzalez (remember him, you will next year)). Manning just passed to a second-year player with three catches coming into this year, and a 24-year old rookie. I now laugh at the heated debate that media people were able to have about two years ago. Brady vs Manning defined a decade, but that decade ended a bit too soon. That debate has been put to rest. I don't think anyone rationally can say that Brady is the better player. Essentially, Manning had his Welker (Gonzo) out for the year, and lost his Gaffney (Harrison 2008 version), and was left throwing to his Moss (Wayne) and Sam Aiken and Julian Edelmen for a whole year. All Manning did was win a fourth MVP and win every game he played in. He came back from down 17 twice, including doing it in one quarter. He won a game where his offense had the ball for 15 minutes. He led four straught fourth quarter comebacks and seven overall. He hasn't been beaten. He is now beatified, a Saint of football. The last step is almost here.

Rex Ryan was football's hottest defensive mind. He had schemes and blitzes that could put nightmares in any QB's head. He was cocky and cool, confidence spewing from that gregarious gut. He was helpless. Rex Ryan could have tried whatever he wanted, Manning was not going to be stopped. Manning's throw to Austin Collie was as beautiful a throw of any I have ever seen. I have really watched the NFL for 10 years now, and each Sunday I watch Manning play is one more day that I am spoiled. Manning will not play forever, and when he eventually retires, I will have to watch the Jim Harbuagh's and Jeff George's of the world QB the Colts. However, when those dark days come, I can always pop up this game (I will go to any length to get it on DVD), and watch QB as it is meant to be played.

Championship Round

It's here, the best single day of football in the NFL weekend. You have the two best teams all year long in the NFC, and the two most deserving teams in the AFC. You have the raucous Superdome, and the underratedly raucous Lukas Oil Stadium. You have three of the top-QBs in the NFL, and one precocious overrated rookie. It should be interesting. Let's just go to those picks. By the way, the formula rankings are still the Divisional Round rankings, as ranking each unit one or two is just silly

New York (a) @ Indianapolis (-7.5)

Jets: Offense - 4; Defense - 1; QB - 4; Coach - 4; Formula Rating: (4+1)*3 + 4+4 = 23
Colts: Offense - 1; Defense - 2; QB - 1; Coach - 3; Formula Rating: (1+2)*3 + 1+3 - 1 = 12

Formula Winner: Indianapolis Colts

I may be a Jets hater, or just a biased Colts fan. More likely, I am heavily both, but I thank God every day that the Jets are the team coming to the Luke and not the Chargers. The Jets are a nice team, with the best defense in the NFL this year, but that defense is one that gave up 20 to the Dolphins twice, the Jaguars and the Pats. They blew three fourth quarter leads at home to the Jags, Dolphins and Falcons. The Chargers were a great match-up for them. The Chargers had no real defense to speak of (they gave up 100 yards rushing in 13 of the 16 games), and they lived and died by the big play. The Chargers, and moreso Philip Rivers, are not patient enough to take small chunks. The Chargers don't score on sustained drives, they score with bombs, and the Jets defense deep-passes better than any other team in the NFL. Herein lies the biggest difference between the Colts and the Chargers. The Colts don't live by the big play. The Colts, and moreso Peyton Manning, will take the check-down, the dink, the dunk all the way down the field.

Peyton is inflappable nowadays. He can't be rattled like how he was in those playoff games in Foxboro. He is the best QB today at identifying blitzes, which he did at a PhD level in the Week 16 game. Manning was not touched. Rex Ryan sent all sorts of pressures at him, and Manning identified each and every single one of them. It was flawless. As for Manning's passing, it was far from flawless in the Week 16 game. Manning missed two potential touchdowns to Reggie Wayne, who routinely got behind Darrelle Revis, and Dallas Clark dropped another potential huge play. Even then, Manning's stats were quite good given that he only played until midway through the third quarter. Unless Manning suddenly reverts to 2003 Manning, and the Luke mysteriously begins to resemble Foxboro, I don't see any way the Colts are held under 20.

As for the other side of the matchup, I don't see how the Jets sniff 20 points of offense. Logical thinking says that they can run on the Colts, however that same logic said the same thing about Baltimore. Baltimore's offense is very comaprable. The Jets have a slightly better running game, and the Ravens a slightly better passing game. Now, those slight difference are advantageous to the Jets, but the Ravens only put up 3 points. They were never really close to scoring any more. They turned the ball over, did not protect Flacco, and by any indication the Ravens o-line is every bit as good as the Jets. Finally, the Jets "advantage" of having a power running game, and running it down the middle, is bunk, since the Colts are actually better at stopping runs down the middle, than over the ends, as they have hulky DTs, and Freeney and Mathis care more about rushing upfield than staying very disciplined at the point of attack. On either side of the ball, the matchup favors the Colts.

Teams go on runs like the Jets all the time, but those runs inevitably end (2007 Giants aside), and they usually end when they run into simply put, a better team. The Colts are that team, and unlike the Chargers, they don't matchup horrifically with the Jets. It should be a fun atmosphere, and for the sake of my heart-burn, I hope I am right on with the Colts winning another comfortable game.

Jets 13 Colts 27 (IND)


Minnesota @ New Orleans (-3.5)

Vikings: Offense - 4; Defense - 3; QB - 4; Coach - 4; Formula Rating: (4+3)*3 + 4+4 = 29
Saints: Offense - 1; Defense - 2; QB - 1; Coach - 2; Formula Rating: (1+2)*3 + 1+2 - 1 = 11

Formula Winner: New Orleans Saints

People often use the transitive property in football. One common use is saying, well the Vikings killed the Cowboys, who beat the Saints, so transitively the Vikings should beat the Saints. The other is that the Vikings killed the Cowboys, who are better than the Cardinals who were beaten less convincingly by the Saints, so the Vikings are entering the game with the advantage. Both of these scenarios are mathematically and logically correct, but are both wrong. The Saints have the advantage.

When the Saints have the ball, they can easily take advantage of the Vikings suspect secondary, made even more suspect with Antoine Winfield hobbled. Bennie Sapp is not a good corner, as shown by his awful performances in the Arizona and Carolina losses. That defense really misses the veteran presence of Darren Sharper (more on him later). The Saints running game will probably resemble the Colts running game, as they will run with little success, and use it solely as a way to slow down the pass rush and keep that defense honest. What is the real matchup here is the Vikings defensive line against the Saints o-line. The Saints o-line really struggled against the Cowboys, and the Vikings are a d-line that has a higher peak performance than the Cowboys. What helps the Saints is that the Vikings play a 4-3. The Saints have been great at pass-blocking against 4-3s, while struggling against 3-4 (Jets, Cowboys). The Saints have the ability to create matchup problems out wide, putting their second, third and fourth wideouts against LBs and safeties, which do not spell good things for the Vikings. Sean Payton will definitely find a way to match up one of their wideouts, or Shockey or Bush against rookie Jasper Brinkley, or average cover safety Tyrell Johnson. The Saints should be able to put up points, as Brees quick release will be great against a team whose defense lacks speed in its back seven.

The Vikings key is running the ball. The Saints have the best stable of defensive backs in the NFC, with Jabari Greer finally healthy. Jabari Greer was brilliant early in the year, and he should be able to take out Sindey Rice. Now, there are reports of reoccuring migraines afflicting Percy Harvin. If Harvin is not able to go, this could get ugly. I'm going to go as Harvin will be playing, for the sake of the matchup. Again, the key is running the ball. When they were winning road games, they ran well (see the game in Lambeau, the last road game they won). That running game has been stopped dead in its tracks, but against good running defenses of Carolina, Arizona, Chicago and Dallas. The Saints run defense is average at best, and since its pass defenses can lock down, get pressure with various blitzes out of multiple formations (an almost complete switch from Dallas' conventional 3-4 blitz scheme), and force turnovers. Turnovers are the key for the Saints defense. If their offense comes out firing, and they are able to jump on top, they can make the Vikings play into their hands. Turnovers are the story of the Saints. When they get them, they can quickly change games. Case in point, the Cards had the ball at 7-7, and Jerehme Urban caught a pass for like 20 yards. It seemed the Cards were rolling towards another seven, when Tracy Porter forced the fumble, and Darren Sharper, like he has done all year, recovered it. The Saints scored six plays later, and the game was over. If they are able to force Favre into turnovers, which he has done in the road games, they can keep the Vikings in the twenties.

The Superdome will be louder than ever. I know I say that nearly every week, but it is more true now than ever. You own a stadium, you own a team for the chance to host this game. This game is the best game for any team to play at home. It is like the Super Bowl, with a trophy being handed out at the end, except it has all of your fans at the game. It is the best crowd of the year. That is the difference. I don't think the Vikings can stop that blitz in that dome. It has been a nice run for Favre, a career year in many ways, but this was also a career year for Brees and that offense. They have owned the NFC all year long, and they will coronate themselves on Sunday Night. New Orleans will finally have an NFC Championship Game, and if I am right, they will also hoist that George Halas trophy for the very first time.

Vikings 20 Saints 31 (NO)


Enjoy the Games, the last true Sunday of Football until September.

What Has Happened??

Here I am, eagerly awaiting the AFC Championship Game, where the Colts can finish off step 2 out of 3, finish off the AFC in nice tidy fashion and enter into the Super Bowl where they can be hailed as a dynasty in the making. Winning the Title makes the Patriots irrelevant, as with a Super Bowl Title the Steelers and Colts will have BOTH won two titles since the Pats last hoisted the glittering Lombardi trophy, smearing it with the fingerprints of cheaters. I expected this notion to be met with the excitement of the nation. A non-Patriots juggernaut. The NFL embraces its juggernauts, unless they cheat or run up the score or are cocky assholes or spew arrogance and convicts like the Longest Yard. The Colts do none of these things. They are tight-lipped never the ones providing the bulletin board material (post-Vanderjagt), they are the ones absorbing it. They are the perfect team, one built with a mix of top-flight players (Wayne, Clark, Freeney, Saturday, Brackett, Mathis) and NFL cast-offs and undrafteds (Brackett, Saturday, Garcon, Johnson (who? exactly)). Yet, three days away from the AFC Championship Game, the first for the Colts that does not pit them against the Redcoat Patriots, I am hearing none of these setiments. America, in fact, is not rooting for the Colts, for the great story of a possible new dynasty, but for the Jets, a loudmouth, smashmouth team from the most lovable and hateable cities in America. Is this really happening? Are the Jets the team that America wants? Really, the Jets?

To me, there hasn't been a more loved underdog since the Giants in Super Bowl XLII against the Galactic Empire that was the Patriots. That was completely understandable (moreso since I was a member of those Patriots-hating folk that cheered till my larynx dislodged from its larynx-holder that night). The Patriots were evil. They mercilessly ran up the score. They had a classless dick of a coach, and a Golden-Boy QB (we hate the Golden Boy QBs. If Favre actually shaved well, America would have exiled him to Elba with the retirement roullette that he is playing). They were a hateable team. The Giants were a team that you could rally behind. They were counted out, they were a team whose coach and QB were so far from Belichick and Brady it seemed that they were the epitome of an opening act to the headline. That made sense, this doesn't.

What have the Colts done to take the place that the Patriots held? They never ran up scores, in fact, they are notorious for doing the opposite, sitting on leads and making games closer than they really are (like when leading Seattle 34-3, they called off the dogs and won 34-17). Their coach is the exact opposite of Belichick. He is no evil mastermind, he is no hoodied football satire of Emperor Palpatine. Coach Jim Caldwell inherited the hardest job in the NFL since George Seifert took over for Bill Walsh and his 1988 Super Bowl Champions. Under intense pressure, and with a team that many media "experts" were sure were going to take a step back, he, like Seifert, piloted a juggernaut to a 14-2 record. Seifert capped it off with a Super Bowl win, mercilessly pounding Denver senseless with a 55-10 win in Super Bowl XXIV. If Caldwell tried that type of win over the Jets (like the Jets, the Broncos had the best defense in 1989) he would be labelled as a tyrant. Caldwell piloted the team beautifully, yet he might as well be a hologram, as little mention of his brilliant performance is even mentioned. The only reason I can see for the Colts now being thought of as some evil team that deserves to be ridiculed and rooted against passionately is a reason that is not exactly rational. Media members hated what they did against these same Jets in Week 16 giving up on a perfect season. Media members went batshit, labelling this as the stupidest move since NBC gave Leno the 10:00 PM slot. The Colts might have well just mooned Gandhi's grave for all the criticism the media pounded on that team. Let alone it worked, as the Colts decisevely won their opening playoff game and are healthier than ever before this season. Yet, it was over for the Colts, they were the new Patriots. The team that denied to chase perfection (something that has NEVER ended successfully) were now somehow a team that didn't deserve to win.

Now for the Jets. Why are they suddenly David, why are they 1980 USA Hockey. They have created some perceived slight from that Week 16 game, let alone the fact that if not for the Colts giving up on perfection they would not have made the playoffs. They are a team that was a slightly-above average team all season. They were a team that crushed the dregs of the league (Raiders, Chiefs, Bucs, Delhomme), and lost to any team competent (Falcons, Jaguars, Miami (twice)). They were a team with a loud defense, and a louder mouth. The real mystery is Rex Ryan. First, he was loved for calling out Belichick and then beating him. He was brash, but his team was 3-0, leader's of some new era. When that all went to hell, and they blew back-to-back games to the Dolphins and Jaguars, and fell to 4-6, there was no more cheering. He was now Jabba the Hut. Yet, after two lay-down wins, and two playoff wins, he is not only understandably hailed in New York as the new-Lombardi, but also looked at nationally as some lovable fat tellytubby with a slightly dirtier mouth. He said that the Jets were the favorite in the whole competition, and then had their parade down the canyon of heroes scheduled. These are brash moves usually met with ridicule and scorn, especially as the team prepares to play a unit that has yet to lose a game that it tried to win. However, Ryan's morbid-obese body and even more boisterous nature allowed such callous cock-ery to be laughed off. How does this happen?

Then there is the rest of the team. Kerry Rhodes hilariously compares himself to Ed Reed when saying how he can bait Manning into interceptions (I don't know who should be more ticked off: Manning or Reed). Sanchez has a statistical year that is worse in every way than JaMarcus Russell's 2008 campaign, and he is put on the Namath podium. Bart Scott talks and talks and talks and has yet to make any discernable impact. What is so lovable about this team? Fine, New York loves them, as they should. New York also loves the Yankees, Mets and Knicks, teams that are hated across the country, the Yankees at a level of hatred usually reserved for pedophiles and dog-killers. Yet, the Jets transcend these bounds. Does Rex Ryan's girth and Sanchez's looks really break the shackles holding brash teams from New York in. Should the Yankees hire Don Zimmer, so they get the Jets treatment. And don't say its becuase the Jets are underdogs. That's not it. In the Lakers-Magic NBA Finals, no one wanted the Magic to win because they were underdogs, no it's because they didn't want to see the childish needs of a alleged-rapist be fullfilled (Kobe, for those of you who have forgotten the Kobe rape story in a cloud of Kobe-huggery and smiles). What is it about this Jets team that has allowed Tedy Bruschi, Rodney Harrison and Cris Carter to all overwhelmingly pick them? What is it?

I will never understand the Jets firestorm in the Winter of 2010. The stupidest angle is this whole "The Colts regret the monster they have created by letting the Jets into the playoffs" storyline. There is not one single Colt who truthfully would rather have beaten the Jets and gotten the Chargers in this game. Sure, I want the Chargers for revenge purposes, but I sleep easier knowing that there is a worse team coming into the Luke in three days. That storyline is complete garbage. The Colts did not create a monster, instead they reached out an olive branch, and cleared the Red Sea that was the Broncos, Steelers and Texans, allowing the .500 Jets into the playoffs (Marvin Lewis and the Bengals played the part of Moses beautifully as well). The Jets, nicely, repaid them by taking out the Chargers. Now, as these two teams are about to come to ahead, meeting in that rectangle of a field in front of the Colt faithful, millions of people around the nation will be cheering for a cocky, brash, loudmouth team, and disparaging a class, quiet, workmanlike team. How does this make sense? All I know is that I never expected the Colts to be the hated team, and I never expected a New York team to be the one that got the media's love.