Pack'n It In

Well, after going 8-3 picking playoff games last year, I went 1-2 in my abbreviated playoff picks. That said, that was an interesting Super Bowl. I'll get out my rambling thoughts on Super Bowl XLV.

- How else would I start? Congratulations to the Green Bay Packers, Aaron Rodgers, Ted Thompson, Mike McCarthy, and the rest of the crew there. They were the better team on Sunday. They overcome some huge injuries, battled through three straight road games, and closed out one of the most resilient teams in the NFL to win it all. The Patriots in 2001 beat a Rams team looking to cement itself as a dynasty, and then they went on to be a dynasty themselves. You never know, history could be repeating itself.

- That said, most likely, history will not repeat itself. Today started the yearly round of "Team (insert Super Bowl Champion Here) is poised to dominate the league for years to come." I've heard it every year. It is never that easy. The Saints were poised to do it coming into this year, but weird things happen. You need luck to win the Super Bowl these days, and luck doesn't come around that often. Want proof? The Super Bowl Champion has not won a playoff game the following year since the 2004 New England Patriots, who won their Wild Card game in 2005. Want further proof? Other than the Patriots, the streak goes back to the 2000 Ravens, who won their Wild Card game. Other than the 2003-2004 Pats, the last team to make the conference title game the next year was the 1997-1998 Broncos. Repeating is damn hard.

- Same for Aaron Rodgers. Everyone wants to crown him the "Best QB in the world." However, let's backtrack 12 months, when Drew Brees finished a Super Bowl run where he didn't throw an interception over three games. Everyone then crowned him the best QB in the NFL. He then proceeded to throw 22 interceptions the next year, and although his team went 11-5, wasn't exactly "best QB in the NFL" material. That title is fleeting. There is always the flavor of the week. Aaron Rodgers should savor this moment, because however great he might be, and however young and talented the Packers might be, nothing is guaranteed. If you told Dan Marino after his one Super Bowl appearance in 1984 or Brett Favre after winning the Super Bowl with a loaded Packers team in 1996 that you would never win a ring (or in Marino's case, get to the Super Bowl) again, they would have laughed at you.

- It gets annoying when people bring up the drops killing Aaron Rodgers night. The only bad drop was James Jones' in what could have been a touchdown. Of course, if the DB used proper technique and batted the ball down instead of trying to make a play and get a pick, it is an easy incompletion. Also, its James Jones, who drops the ball as much as Big Ben drops trou. The others weren't as bad. Nelson followed up his bad drop with a 30-yard gain the next play, and his "drop" on the first drive was a really tough catch. Rodgers played about as well as his stats show, which is a great performance. But let's not act like this was Joe Montana going 22-28 for 5 tds against the league's best scoring defense in Super Bowl XXIV.

- I still stand by my pick. I think if the teams play 10 times, the Steelers win 6. Despite losing the turnover battle 3-0, and despite missing a field goal, the Steelers still had a drive to win the game. The Packers, like they have so many times this season, didn't really put a team away. The Packers did nothing in the 3rd quarter for the second straight game, and if Rashard Mendenhall doesn't fumble that ball (or if Johnson doesn't stand there like a statue instead of realizing the ball was fumbled), I think the Steelers score a TD there, and since Rodgers was 2 for his last 9 up to that point in the 2nd half, I'm not sure the Packers could have come back.

- One last Packers' slight. This talk of "Oh, they were so resilient, with all those players on IR!" is so grating. Other than Ryan Grant and Jermichael Finley, can anyone name the other players on IR? Were there any other starters? One was Nick Barnett, but how about the guy who Charlie Peprah replaced? Anyone know him? This wasn't analogous to the Colts situation. The Colts lost talented, important starters. If the Colts lost their version of Nick Barnett and Atari Bigby (know where he plays? He's one of those IR guys), they would not have gone anywhere near 10-6.

- Also, in no way was Super Bowl XLV a great game. It was a good game, and compared to the junk that happened on Super Sunday in the 80's, it was a major step up. It would have been great but that last drive for the Steelers fizzled out about instantly, making the ending anti-climactic. The game overall was quite sloppy. The Packers were dropping passes, then they couldn't block for Rodgers. The Steelers committed turnovers, then missed a field goal so badly I thought they had signed Vanderjagt. I've watched every Super Bowl multiple times from Super Bowl XXXIV to now (except for Super Bowl XXXV - Ravens vs Giants). I remember every detail from a lot of those games. I doubt I will remember much about this game five years from now. The game was like Super Bowl XXXIX, where despite it being a 3 point game, and the Eagles having the ball with a minute to go down a field goal, it wasn't all that good of a game.

- The Halftime show was a joke. First of all, Slash should never have agreed to appear on stage with the Black Eyed Peas. Then, it gets annoying when instead of singing four songs completely, they do a medley of 10 songs. The Who did the same thing last year, and it ruined it. Also, what happened to having fans on the field for the halftime show. They used to do this each year I can remember, but instead they just had lit up performers who basically added nothing to the show. I please hope this shows that going with a current act is not at all better than going with a bunch of 50-60 year olds from the past.

- With that in mind, I really hope for Super Bowl XLVI, they go with Van Halen. They're recording a new CD right now (the first with Roth since 1984), and are supposedly going on tour at some point this year. Not sure they would agree to it, but similar acts have done halftime. If they can't get them, or don't want them, I would also recommend Aerosmith (although it's been done already), the Eagles (at least one group of Eagles should get to the Super Bowl), or if they want to go modern, Rihanna.

- There was nothing more annoying that media members (specifically Peter King) complaining about the weather in Dallas. Peter King even complained that the city didn't buy enough snowplows. Does Peter King realize that this was the biggest snowstorm in about 20 years? That the normal temperature in February is far warmer, or that in a city with a crippled education, they might have better things to spend money on than snow-plows for a snowstorm that happens once every two decades. Honestly, the media members are getting an all-expense paid trip to Dallas to do work; work that includes hob-knobbing with radio stations, players and attending the Super Bowl. Millions of Americans would volunteer to do that "work", so stop complaining that the temperature wasn't 72, and you had to drive in, you know, 6 inches of snow.

- The seating mess was ridiculous. That Jerry Jones was setting up seating that apparently had its stability questioned months ago, and the NFL okayed it was crazy. Does Jerry Jones really care that much about setting an attendance record. I would never bring the Super Bowl back to Dallas just to shove it in Jerry Jones' self-aggrandizing face. Honeslty, Indianapolis will probably put on a good time, but people will complain about how small and un-Dallasy it is, but I guarantee that at least all the people who bought tickets will be able to attend.


Overall, it was not the most fun of NFL seasons for me. The Raiders going 8-8 was fun, but I'll dwell on their missed opportunities that could've had them make the playoffs. However, other than that, it was a disaster. The Colts were ravaged with injuries at a rate I have never seen before. The Patriots flew to a 14-2 record (although their loss to the Jets gave me a great moment). In the end, a team I don't particularly care for won the Super Bowl, but such is life. After a near perfect 2009 season for me (God, how I still am scarred by Super Bowl XLIV and what could have been), it all evened out. I just hope 2011 will be a little bit better. The odds are against it, since the Colts are trying to do something that no other team has ever done: play the Super Bowl in its home stadium. However, no team had won twelve or more games seven straight years either (or 6 years, or 5, or 4). The Colts proved that possible.


On the baseball.....

Super Bowl XLV Pick

Super Bowl XLV

Green Bay Packers (-2.5) vs Pittsburgh Steelers



Not going to spend much time here. I'm a fan of defensive football (despite me liking the Colts), and teh Steelers are the best defense in the NFL. They have the best rush defense by far. They ahve the best pass rush in the NFL. They have a hall of famer at safety, and a corner playing hot (Ike Taylor). The Packers also had a great defense, but they played a much softer schedule. That said, forget the matchups. The Super Bowl is often about emotion. The Colts matched up really well with the Saints last year. Look how that turned out. No, the Super Bowl is about will.

The Packers are getting much love. Despite being a 6th seed in the weaker conference and barely holding off a 3rd string QB in the NFC Championship Game, they come in as favorites in the Super Bowl. The Steelers have an experienced team who's nucleus won the Super Bowl just two years ago. They have a quarterback who is 10-2 in the playoffs. They have the league's best defense and beat a better team more convincingly in the Championship Game than Green Bay did. So why exactly are the Packers favored? This isn't like 2005, when the 6th seeded Steelers were favorites against the Seahawks. No, the Steelers were in the far tougher conference and dominated a 14-3 Broncos team in Denver. This is different. This makes no sense.

Much of it is probably due to the Aaron Rodgers hype (again, despite a mediocre if not bad performance in the title game). People say "Rodgers in a dome.... this is perfect." And this idea is mainly built off their 48-21 beatdown of top-seeded Atlanta in the divisional round. However, and this is key, the Falcons defense, in the words of Bart Scott, "cannot stop a nosebleed." The Steelers are the toughest test the Packers will face on defense in the entire playoffs, more so than the Bears (and scoring 14 points, and none on offense in the second half, isn't exactly passing the test). Aaron Rodgers started 10 games this season, including the playoffs, against defenses in the top-half of the league. Here are his numbers.

Wk 1 @ PHI (W: 27-20) 19-31 181 yds 2 tds 2 ints
Wk 3 @ CHI (L: 17-20) 34-45 316 yds 1 td 1 int
Wk 5 @ WAS (L: 13-16) 27-46 292 yds 1 td 1 int
Wk 6 vs MIA (L: 20-23) 18-33 313 yds 1 td 1 int
Wk 8 @ NYJ (W: 9-0) 15-34 170 yds 0 tds 0 ints
Wk 16 vs NYG (W: 45-17) 25-37 404 yds 4 tds 0 ints
Wk 17 vs CHI (W: 10-3) 19-28 227 yds 1 td 1 int
WC @ PHI (W: 21-16) 18-27 180 yds 3 tds 0 ints
CON @ CHI (W: 21-14) 17-30 244 yds 0 tds 2 ints

His total stat line: 192-311 for 2329 yds and 13 tds and 8 ints for a passer rating of 89.4, which compared to his season one of 101.4 is not great. If you take out that win over the Giants, who showed no interest on offense or defense in playing that game, it becomes 167-274 for 1925 yds with 9 tds and 9 ints for a passer rating of 80.9. That won't cut it, especially since Pittsburgh's defense is better than all of those.

Another line I hear a lot is "the Packers can spread out the Steelers like the Patriots did." Wrong. What the Patriots did that day was special. Brady was on fire, and more importantly, the Pats were able to run the ball. You have to be able to spread the Steelers out and still run on them to make that work, and the Packers with their flaccid running game coupled with the Steelers great rush defense that is on a roll right now makes that a hard proposition. I don't see the Packers having nearly the same amount of success that the Patriots did back in Week 10.

On the other side of the ball, the Steelers can run on the Packers. Most teams can. Michael Turner didn't but the Eagles did and the Bears did. Also, when these two teams met last year, Roethlisberger shredded them. Of course, Rodgers shredded the Steelers as well, but that game was played without Troy Polamalu and Bryant McFadden (with Ryan Mundy and some random corner instead), while the Packers defense is largely the same. I like the Steelers on that side of the ball to have some success, or more properly, enough success.

I don't want to see Roethlisberger get hailed as a "winner" or whatever when he wins his third Super Bowl. In fact, if he does win that third, it can go in two ways. Either the media analysts will feel skeptical to put him on the same level as Manning (rightfully so) and devalue the rings argument in judging QBs, or they will go the opposite way and shove a guy who was up for debate as the greatest ever before Super Bowl XLIV into 3rd position. Either way, I would still rather see the Steelers win. They have the right mix of force, swagger and balls. They are the team that I wish I could root for (too late to start). They have the defense, the tough QB, and they are a bit undervalued.

The Pick............................................

Steelers 27 Packers 20 (PIT)

Position Group Breakdowns

Here is the first of many (or probably more like 3 or 4) Super Bowl breakdowns. I'll break down each team's position groups head-to-head.

QB: Ben Roethlisberger vs Aaron Rodgers

Two of the best young QBs in the league. Aaron Rodgers grew up this year, playing better under pressure and playing better in close games. He was on fire through two games of the playoffs before fading in the second half of the NFC Championship. Rodgers has played two playoff games indoors, both on the road (obviously), and the Packers has put up 45 and 48 points. Rodgers was in a zone, but it needs to be seen if he can play great against a great defense. Roethlisberger is, how to say it, not on fire. Other than two nice throws to ice the game, he was bad in the AFC Championship. However, he can play a lot better. The Jets were on a great defensive roll, one that is even better than the Packers is on right now. Roethlisberger played great against the Ravens the week before, and he also performs better indoors. He has a track record of playing great in Steelers playoff wins (with the AFC Championship game this year and Super Bowl XL being the two exceptions). I'll go with the experience of the big-time guy, who showed last year he can play pass-for-pass with Aaron Rodgers.

Edge: Steelers


RB: Rashard Mendenhall and Co. vs James Starks and Co.

Mendenhall was easily the best player on any of the four teams playing on Championship Sunday. He broke through tons of Jets tackles, and ran through a Jets' defense that had been one of the best against the run all year. The backups don't do much, as Mendenhall is one of the last true "feature" backs in the NFL. As for the Packers, James Starks had one nice game against the Eagles, who have a mediocre rush defense. Other than that, he hasn't done much. Brandon Jackson is nice out of the backfield. However, context matters here. The Packers gave up 4.7 ypc on the season, and the Steelers have been dominant against the run. This one is easy.

Edge: Steelers


WR: Wallace, Ward, Brown, Sanders vs Jennings, Jones, Jordy and Driver

The Steelers group is very underrated. Hines Ward is running on fumes, but the other three are really good at stretching the field. Mike Wallace can run shorter routes now, which he didn't really do last year, but the other two (who have really stepped up in the playoffs) are pure burners. That works perfectly with Roethlisberger propensity to throw deep. That said, the Packers group takes this. Donald Driver is doing a Hines Ward impression right now, but those other three are this year's version of the Saints Colston, Henderson and Meachem. They are really interchangable. Jennings and Jones are extremely similar, and although Nelson is used primarily out of the slot, but has been expanding his routes more now.

Edge: Packers


TE: Heath Miller vs Andrew Quarless

The Packers struggle defending tight ends. FootballOutsiders.com DVOA has the Packers rated 22nd against tight ends. Heath Miller is Roethlisberger's best option. He's essentially the Steelers slot receiver, as well as an amazing blocker (he was single-blocking Jets LBs and DEs). Quarless, while filling in nicely for Jermichael Finley, is nowhere near Heath Miller, who has been everything and more since the Steelers picked him in the 1st round back in 2005. Look for Heath Miller to have a big game.

Edge: Steelers


OL: Crap-tacular Pittsburgh vs Average Packers

While I do think that Maurkice Pouncey was a tad overrated, and the running game still played well with Legursky in there, this is really a no contest. Bryan Bulaga was beaten soundly in the second half of the NFC Championship, but still they are better in pass blocking and even in run blocking than the Steelers. This was is easy.

Edge: Packers


DL: Keisel, Hampton and Hood vs Jenkins, Pickett and BJ Raji

This is extremely tough. If Aaron Smith was healthy and playing, the Steelers would take it. Evander (Ziggy) Hood is playing at a high, high level. Probably just as good as BJ Raji (but isn't getting near the credit that Raji is - much like this Steelers team in general). Brett Keisel has really stepped up, and not only with his facial growths. Casey Hampton was a monster in the AFC Championship, continually beating Nick Mangold, but hadn't had a huge game in weeks. Cullen Jenkins is about the same, playing huge in the NFC Championship after having some down weeks. Ryan Pickett is just solid, much like Mr. Keisel. As you can see, this is really, really close, and I can't go one way or the other.

Edge: Even


OLB: Woodley and Harrison vs Matthews and Walden

Clay Matthews is a really good player, against both the run and pass. He's a pass-rushing monster and is great at looping inside. That said, the Steelers have two players who are about as good as two Clay Matthews. I would put James Harrison a tad better than Matthews (more dominant against the run), and Woodley a little lower (sometimes a run liability, but great at pass rushing). Eric Walden is what makes this easy. Since replacing Zombo, Walden has done a nice job, but he is nowhere near the player that Woodley is.

Edge: Steelers


ILB: Farrior and Timmons vs Hawk and Bishop

There is a reason that the Steelers have been a linebacker factory for years. Lawrence Timmons oddly is better against the pass (he's good in coverage and great at rushing the passer) at the ILB position, but he and Farrior combine to make one of the best ILB tandems in the NFL. AJ Hawk might look like Clay Matthews, but he is not the same quality of player. Desmond Bishop has been great, and he could play a big role in helping to shut down Mendenhall, but that said, the Steelers have the best quartet of LBs in the game.

Edge: Steelers


CB: SwagU, McFadden and Big Play Willie Gay vs Woodson, Tramon Williams and Shields

For those who don't know, SwagU is Ike Taylor, who has had a monster postseason apart from slipping down on Santonio Holmes' TD. Bryant McFadden has not been the player that he was two years ago for the Steelers in 2008. If anything, that is why the Steelers defense of 2010 isn't as good as the Steelers from 2008. Their coverage is not as good. The Packers, on the other hand, have the best coverage secondary in the NFL. Surprisingly, Charles Woodson has struggled in the playoffs, but Tramon Williams and Sam Shields have been amazing. The Packers biggest advantage is here in their corners.

Edge: Packers


SS: Troy Polamalu vs Charlie Peprah

One is a future hall of famer, who despite not being at 100% and not playing up against the run as much, is still a playmaker and could break out after the extra week off. The other is an average player thrust into a starting role and despite doing well, remains one of the few liabilities on the Packers back end. Troy Polamalu hasn't been good against the run of recent weeks, but that shouldn't be as important in this game since the Steelers front seven could stop the run against the Packers with one hand tied behind their back.

Edge: Steelers


FS: Ryan Clark vs Nick Collins

Ryan Clark is a lot better than his reputation of a savage, cheap hitter (based mainly off his cheap-shot of Wes Welker two years ago). He's good in coverage, good playing the ball, and can play the run. He's a sure tackler and is a force over the middle. That said, Nick Collins is one of the more underrated FS in the game. Nick Collins is great in coverage, and although he doesn't tackle well, or play the run well, he will be critical in slowing down the deep pass of the Steelers. This isn't a huge edge, but nonetheless, it is an edge for the Pack.

Edge: Packers


ST: Sanders and Suisham vs Someone and Crosby

I don't trust either kicker. Suisham has been really good with the Steelers, but historically he is not a great kicker. Mason Crosby has never really had to hit a clutch kick in years. The Steelers return game and coverage units are actually good for once, and due to all their injuries, the Packers return and coverage units are strug-a-ling.

Edge: Steelers


Coaching: Tomlin, Arians and LeBeau vs McCarthy and Dom Capers

Bruce Arians has a good rapport with Ben Roethlisberger. As is Mike McCarthy. It is more about Capers vs LeBeau. LeBeau ironically replaced Capers as DC of the Steelers in his first go-around in Pittsburgh. Both are in a zone. Both know how to scheme defense, and are adaptable. On offense, both have good rapport with their QBs. Mike McCarthy seems more stubborn, and will keep with the running game even if it not working and is in detriment to his team. Mike Tomlin and the Steelers are a much better game manager than McCarthy and the Packers. I would give the Steelers the slightest of edges, but I think the defensive coaches, which are more important to their respective teams, is close enough to call this a draw.

Edge: Even.


The Final Count: Steelers: 7; Packers: 4; Even: 2


More stuff later on.