I'm a Democrat. Not registered (would never want to annoyance of political calls and what-not that goes along with that), but I've only voted blue before. That won't change. I considering myself a moderate democrat, but definitely still one. So of course, I was ecstatic about last Tuesday, the bluest of blue wave. Things we never thought we would see again, like Democrats winning senate races in South Carolina, Kansas, Iowa, and even seemingly Missi-fucking-ssippi. Some of that was in the polls - certainly the Democrafts having real chances in Kansas and Iowa, but the others not so much. Most polls had teh Dems up +10 nationally. As expected, there was a ton of hand-wringing around polls underrating the GOP like it did during the Trump wins in 2016 and 2024. Of course, it underrated democrats. For the first time since 2012, the Democrats had a fun election night.
It was a long 14 years in between, with two awful presidential year losses in 2016 and 2024 (both as harrowing as the last), and rough midterms and 2014 and 2022 (though 2022 had a silver lining that it was one of teh best performances by the party in power, the Democrats actually gaining a senate seat). 2020 was fun, but it took forever to realize it, with the election not being called until days later. Yes, there was that moment after midnight where the NYT Needle suddenly shifted to predicting Biden would win the remaining states and win teh election, so it was a few days of watching that dream come true, but it still took days.
This was over by 10pm in all honesty. It was over when Ossoff won so easily Georgia was called at 8:30. Hell, it arguably was one at 7:05 whem that first batch of votes in some random right-leaning county in Indianapolis had a giant leftward shift. The rest was gravy. I forgot how fun it is to flip around CNN, MSNBC (fuck off calling it MSNOW) and of course FOX News on a night like this. FOX was particularly fun watching them all realize in real time how bad things were. Those two minutes when Texas was called for first Talarico and then Hijonosa was just brilliance. You could also see the main hosts in Bret Baier and main pol Britt Hume try to steer things back to reality when the random other blondes and weirdos did their best to pretend it wasn't a huge repudiation of Trump.
Of course, MSNBC took things too far the other way. CNN was a reasonable middle ground, with even usual annoying gnat Scott Jennings being reasonable and quippy. Yes, he raised the rigth point that the Dems have to do somethign with this two year period running congress, but Trump remains so damn unpopular, it may not matter. Yes, 2028 may not be 2026, but the last time there was a blue wave of this magnitude in a midterm it was 2006, and then we saw 2008 with one of the great Democrat nights of all time. Sure, it took the onset of a global recession to get us there - but hey, the way AI and the market is trending, even that part may come true.
I do want to turn the sights on 2028 as part of this, because the biggest outcome of all to me is the white whale democrats have been chasing since 2008 or so - the year when they won so dominantly in a changing country demographically there were literally stories written that they would never lose. As 2010 so quickly showed, that was bunk and over the years they threw away that edge - with minorities still largely voting blue but way less so - including some worrying trends in 2024. Well, they all seemed to give Trump another shot. As expected, he failed miserably, and they all swung back and we had Texas go blue. Sure, even more red states did but the big headline is taht one. Because truly, if that is sustainable - than this whole thing is a wrap.
Texas was the Democrats white whale, the Lucy's Football, because of how important it can be. The 40 electoral votes, the highly Latino population, the growing Asian and Tech-focused population. The demographics are tehre for it to work. Hell, it nearly did in 2018 when Ted Cruz narrowly beat Beto O'Rourke, beating off a mild blue wave - more reliastically a blue trickle. In 2020, Trump only won Texas by six points (a gap that was 16 as recently as 2012 when Obama won the overall election easily). In 2024, it balooned back up to 14, but again there were factors that made that unique. Arguably, the complete swing the other way of those same factors (the Latino vote, largely, as it pertains to Texas) can make people say 2026 is unique. Maybe it is, but either way Texas is in play.
The most important result wasn't even Talarico winning by 12. He beat a uniquely shitty candidate in Ken Paxton, just as Annie Andrews did so in South Carolina. Paxton was maybe the worst Senate candidate this side of Roy Moore - a convicted cheat, a marriage cheat, a pedo defender, and above all of that a complete void of charisma. I don't know if Jon Cornyn won the primary would he have beat Talarico, but the fact that is a question belies the true point. Even in a blue wave, even against a bad candidate, for a Democrat to win a statewide race in Texas by 12 is ridiculous.
Nearly so is Gina Hinojosa beating Greg Abbott by seven. Sure, Abbott himself isn't all that popular, but he is a three term incumbent with some level of connection to the people of Texas, and he lost rather easily (remember, Hinojosa won by a bigger margin against Abbott than Trump did over Biden in Texas in 2020). Further down, the Democrats won the state House, they won all four seats that were open in the State Supreme Court. They won basically all statewide races. It was a blue wave in micro in Texas itself. That is staggering. You get the odd Senate race that goes against the general trend in a state - again see Kansas, Iowa, South Carolina and Mississippi - I would put good money none of these states go blue for President in 2028. But to win basically all races is meaningful.
The point around the Democrats needing to not throw away the next two years of good will is a great one, but there is an interesting case for Texas that I think can make this sustainable. First, some of the trends that made Texas go more blue than other red states are more Trump and ICE-specific, namely the Latino community not realizing teh extent to which Trump's immigration crackdown and gestapo tactics would be. Now, we can all point and laugh and say they were dumb to not realize this, but at least they seemingly learned the lesson. Those border town districts that swung heavily red in 2024 swung back with a crazy vengeance. Second, there is solid evidence the data center issue is big in Texas and unlikely to go away. Third, this is the first time in generations Texas has a Democrat governer. For decades, the only experience Texas had with Democrats in power was in the White House - having a Democrat governor is different. Positive view of that can be a meaningful, lasting change.
Texas turning blue in 2028 is of course a potential fools errand as well. Certainly, there is a good chance it swings back, and there is a risk the Democrats see this as at least a toss up that they over invest in Texas when they should not be (taking funds away from other swing states), but honestly I don't see how we can leave the 2026 election and say this isn't a swing state. Given the size, it is the most meaningful swing state maybe ever. The comp the optimists are pointing to is California, that went from deep red under Reagan, to close in 1988 when Bush Sr won, to clear blue in 1992 with Clinton and has been solid, solid blue ever since. If that happens with Texas... again, game over. Yes, even if Trump lost Texas in 2024, he would've won the election, but a world where Texas goes blue but all of PA, GA, WI, MI all go red is hard to trust, and if Trump didn't win Texas in 2024, he would have just 272 electoral votes.
The end scenario is there, it is staring the Democrats in the face, and in that way James Talarico, and I think moreso Gina Hijonosa have a lot really riding on them. Of course, the GOP knows the importance of Texas as well, and while some of the talking heads on FOX News will pretend this is all one nightmare random moment in time, the GOP machine will realize how importnat it is to turn the next two years in Texas into utter gridlock and tell all the Texans "see, this is what happens when you go blue." In many respects, other than a potential AI-driven market crash, or war, the most important developments of the next two years is simply what happens in Texas - or as one can only hope, what happens in Bluexas.
