Tier I - The Lets Get This Over With Trio
31.) Miami Dolphins = 1-7 (126-200)
30.) Tennessee Titans = 1-7 (144-199)
The Chargers are quickly becoming the most disappointing team maybe of all time - they wre a 10.5 O/U win total team before the year started. Whats shocking is how consistently bad they have been and how much worse it has become. Herbert is broken. The team is broken. Fire them all. Move them back to San Diego. Do something dammit. For the Dolphins and Titans, some signs of life in recent weeks - a team that is at least trying hard in Miami and signs of life from Cam Ward. Both positive developments, but these are teams that were expected to be bad (though not this bad, in the case of the Titans) and have remained bad.
Tier II - The Open For Business Trio
29.) Philadelphia Eagles = 2-7 (148-221)
28.) Indianapolis Colts = 2-7 (184-249)
27.) New York Jets = 2-7 (182-223)
The Eagles have started wheeling and dealing a bit - the sign that they know the season is lost. Jordan Davis is not a huge loss given what they got back, and dealing from a position of need. The real only mystery left for them is if Sirianni gets the axe, or convinces Lurie and Roseman that this was just the true outcome of a year from hell. The Colts are in a similar boat with Steichen, but I get the sense Carlie Irsay has increasingly seen enough and Steichen will get the axe fairly shortly. Surprised that it seems, as of this writing on Monday Night, that they are going to hold back on trading Taylor or Jones. For the Jets, another case where it is starting to be a real question whether their coach makes it to the end of the season. That was a sullen performance coming off of a series of many of them, to be honest. The best outcome for the Jets is just tracking those Colts and Cowboys first round picks.
Tier III - The Inevitable Slide Quadro
26.) Baltimore Ravens = 4-5 (189-236)
25.) Cleveland Browns = 5-4 (161-196)
24.) Washington Commanders = 2-5-1 (172-202)
25.) Cleveland Browns = 5-4 (161-196)
24.) Washington Commanders = 2-5-1 (172-202)
23.) Arizona Cardinals = 3-6 (178-255)
The Ravens Brissett trade is interesting but I think short-sighted. The AFC Playoff field looks to be top-heavy record wise, helped on by the plethora of bad teams in the AFC. Hard to even know if 10-7 would make it as a wild card, and certainly not the AFC North. Unlikely to me that Brissett can keep them bove water for a potential late season Lamar return. The Browns have had their fake good start hit a huge rock at this point. Sanders will be interesting to track, but if anything the Browns should be happy that this fake good record of theirs which was a clear mirage wont teach them that they are closer than they really are. For the Commanders, the best news is Daniels has successfully completed recent games. Not sure the long term health of the team with an aging roster and Quinn - but even if they were to clean house, having a healthy Daniels is a great starting point. Finally for the Cardinals, I like this coaching staff, but they are just too limited on offense to get any higher - realistically on defense as well, and they are mising a QB. Their ability to squeeze out a few wins may actually be a net negative long term - even if it helps build a culture. Losing Michael Wilson is a real tough development, one of the few bright spots on the team.
Tier IV - The God Bless the NFC South Duo
22.) New Orleans Saints = 3-5 (185-216)
21.) Atlanta Falcons = 3-6 (188-223)
Of course, many are clowning on the NFC South for having all four teams with just three wins 8/9 games into the season. To me, though, there is a clear delineation between the top two teams in the division and the bottom two. Not to say the top two are way better, but the Saints and Falcons are just a bit too limited, injured and, most jarringly, highly varying week to week. In my mind both have too low a floor and not high enough a ceiling. I guess you can say the Falcons have a higher ceiling - their smack down of the Packers being one of the weirder single game outcomes so far, but that high is well in the past at this point, and teams have been far better at containing Bijan in recent weeks.
Tier V - The Fun Bad Teams Duo
20.) Las Vegas Raiders = 4-5 (238-268)
19.) Dallas Cowboys = 4-5 (246-236)
19.) Dallas Cowboys = 4-5 (246-236)
The Raiders offense is still good down to down but way too many turnovers, and the defense has slid back to the porous unit it was much of last year. I dont get the Cousins thing - yes he is playing well, but in reality what that should have led the Raiders to do at this point is trade him back to Minnesota or the Giants or some good team needing a QB and just play Mendoza at this point. As mentioned when talking bout hte Ravens, the AFC Wild Cards are too good record wise to expect the Raiders to contend. The Cowboys might contend only because of the NFC East, but they are still 2.5 games behind the Giants. That team is still an unserious operation, led by what I still see as a unserious head coach in Schottenheimer. The Dak Era will never come close to any high with this leadership structure.
Tier VI - The God Bless the NFC East and South Trio
18.) Carolina Panthers = 3-5 (199-219)
17.) New York Giants = 5-2-1 (182-172)
16.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers = 3-6 (202-178)
The Giants are not a good team, but it seems likely at this point they will at least end the season with a >500 record (and let us avoid the amazing amount of noise that will come with two NFC divisions with a sub-.500 winner). It is just a well coached, decent unit with few stars other than some DL, but doesnt burn themselves. That is the recipe for a 10-6-1 team that will get beaten but not embarrassed on Wild Card Weekend. The Panthers and Bucs also hae much of that, just with a way wider ceiling and floor. The Buccaneers defense remains great, but Mayfield is just broken right now. Not in the sense that it cant get better, but without a great running game, that passing game falls apart. The Panthers need better OL play to allow their offense to flourish, and lets see if the Eviro firing does anything for that defense.
Tier VII - The Middle Tier Contenders Quinto
15.) Houston Texans = 3-5 (209-192)
14.) Pittsburgh Steelers = 6-2 (180-144)
13.) New England Patriots = 5-4 (211-207)
12.) Los Angeles Rams = 5-4 (214-181)
11.) Denver Broncos = 7-2 (198-186)
14.) Pittsburgh Steelers = 6-2 (180-144)
13.) New England Patriots = 5-4 (211-207)
12.) Los Angeles Rams = 5-4 (214-181)
11.) Denver Broncos = 7-2 (198-186)
It's funny because I can easily see a world where in a few weeks we see the Texans as the best team of these. The defense is finally playing like itself the last few weeks, and Tank Dell's inclusion in the offense now has done wonders. The division is likely out of reach (even with the head to head) but a wild card isn't impossible. If it comes to pas, they will probably be stealing it from one of the next two teams. The Steelers and Patriots have had decent seasons but there is a ceiling that is lower than you would like - be it Rodgers immobility for the Steelers, or hte injuries that are really harming the Patriots. Hard to feel bad for them since lost in teh easy schedule stuff last year was also some great injury luck. A team having pretty awful injury luck is the Rams - I thought about dropping them further given the Nucua news, but Garrett coming back may reinvigorate taht defense enough to offset it. As we will get to, there seems to be a race of seven potential playoff teams for five spots (the four NFC North ones and the top three in the West) and this injury can easily be enough to make hte Rams not a playoff team. Finally for the Broncos, another close win where on paper everything looked fine. At some point it stops being just luck but man it would be a nice for a team who is good and deep and well coached to just win a game by 20 for once. Please, Denver, please!
Tier VIII - The Lower Upper Tier Contenders Trio
10.) Green Bay Packers = 6-3 (216-191)
9.) Minnesota Vikings = 6-2 (
8.) Seattle Seahawks = 5-4 (202-162)
8.) Seattle Seahawks = 5-4 (202-162)
Man, taht was incredible by the Packers. With their deep shot way of playing pass offense, if it all clicks you will get a game like that, but for them to torch Gonzalez, and go out of their way to do it, was wondrous. Parsons seems to be nearing a return, and if we get that with a well over .500 Packers team, they may remain the scariest 6-7 seed in history. Granted, the division isn't totally out of reach yet. As for the Vikings, my only reason ranking them above Green Bay is I assume something will change at QB. Watching Wentz attempt to do anything was so pathetic, it covered up what was an amazing game by the defense for 40 minutes. They have a real chance of making a statement this upcoming game but it would be helpful if their QB could complete a few passes. For Seattle, it really comes down to them not losing a couple more coin flips. They are so talented, so well coached on defense, and the run game has been reasonably effective now. Darnold coming back and not throwing 2-3 pickable balls will help. The math is going to make it a really interesting late season.
Tier IX - The Imperfect Great Teams Trio
7.) Cincinnati Bengals = 6-2 (240-175)
6.) Detroit Lions = 6-2 (222-189)
6.) Detroit Lions = 6-2 (222-189)
5.) Kansas City Chiefs = 6-2 (202-143)
The Bengals quietly have the third best DVOA and third best point differential in the NFL. They've been awesome on offense for a long time now - Burrow having a Mahomes-like season numbers wise (in a good way). He is my MVP pick at this poin t. The defense is doing enough, but so much of their future will be defined by if they can beat away their nemesis in Pittsburgh this weekend. For teh Lions, not the prettiest win, but another great showing by the defense, which is really what is most important for them - especially as we see what happens with Campbell. Them winning games when Goff isn't at his best is a great sign. Finally for the Chiefs, maybe losses in Seattle adn Denver, the latter of which they blew a game they controlled, isn't enough to suddenly think the team sucks. Yes, their continued inability to throw even intermediate is a problem, but their offense has been quite efficient on teh whole, and finally we get some nice signs by the pass rush. That may b e the biggest development from an otherwise quiet 20 point win.
Tier X - The Less Imperfect Great Teams Duo
4.) Chicago Bears = 7-2 (241-184)
3.) Buffalo Bills = 7-1 (
3.) Buffalo Bills = 7-1 (
The Bears not losing that ridiculous game, with the four picks (at least two of which weren't fully on Caleb) with the fumble, with so much else, is honestly nearly as impressive as their blowout wins. Yes, you would like them not to turn it over, but the defense held up (save for the final TD drive) and the defense has put together a few good performances in a row now. Big wins for a team that is in such a dog fight in the division. Hard to know what to make of the Bills defense. They've been bad all year and then got two layups - granted they made the Wentz-led offense look more anemic than it had earlier in the year when Wentz at least scored a TD or two. The offense remains good when not doing dumb stuff, which they still do way too often. The defensive improvement makes this team realistically just a facsimile of prior great Bills teams, this one with a better shot at that long elusive #1 seed however.
Tier XI - The Best of the Best Duo
2.) Jacksonville Jaguars = 6-2 (229-121)
1.) San Francisco 49ers = 7-1 (235-156)
1.) San Francisco 49ers = 7-1 (235-156)
It's hard to leapfrog the Jaguars after they beat up on a clearly overmatched QB in Fagnano. Had that even been Tyler Huntley, I would probably have done it. A +108 point differential after eight games is really, really great. They are deep, balanced, and then went out and got a bevy of defensive reinforcements - why they needed to, I'm not really sure? Anyway, they remain to me the best team in teh AFC that is now ruing the blown loss to Denver back in Week 2. For the 49ers, teh turnovers forced on defesne mask an otherwise not so great performance by their defense, but the offense remains just brilliant. If they can get the injured guys back (and lets see what if anythign happens with teh Aiyuk situation, though likely nothing comes of it) they remain to me the class of the NFL at this point.
Projecting the Playoffs
AFC
1.) Jacksonville Jaguars = 14-3
2.) Buffalo Bills = 14-3
3.) Kansas City Chiefs = 13-4
4.) Cincinnati Bengals = 12-5
5.) Denver Broncos = 12-5
3.) Kansas City Chiefs = 13-4
4.) Cincinnati Bengals = 12-5
5.) Denver Broncos = 12-5
6.) Pittsburgh Steelers = 12-5
7.) New England Patriots = 10-7
7.) New England Patriots = 10-7
The really only question is the AFC is if the Texans, with their fairly manageable second half schedule, can get hot and steal a wild card spot. Otherwise, these are realistically your seven AFC teams in some order. I guess the Browns shitting out a handful more BS wins is not impossible...
NFC
1.) San Francisco 49ers = 14-3
2.) Detroit Lions = 13-4
3.) New York Giants = 9-7-1
3.) New York Giants = 9-7-1
4.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers = 8-9
5.) Chicago Bears = 13-4
6.) Green Bay Packers = 12-5
7.) Seattle Seahawks = 11-6
5.) Chicago Bears = 13-4
6.) Green Bay Packers = 12-5
7.) Seattle Seahawks = 11-6
Way, way more intersting. The Rams are the team on the outside at this point, along with the Vikings. I really can't with the NFC North, but that offense is just too putrid to trust. I worry the defense will wear down a bit having to play extended drives. The rough part is I can see a world where teh Rams and Seahawks both don't make it. Not as impossible as you would think, especially if they split their head to head.
Looking Ahead to Next Week's Games
Byes: Chicago Bears (7-2), Denver Broncos (7-2), Philadelphia Eagles (2-7), Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-6)
14.) Miami Dolphins (1-7) @ Indianapolis Colts (2-7) (1:00 - CBS)
13.) Buffalo Bills (7-1) @ New York Jets (2-7) (1:00 - CBS)
12.) Los Angeles Chargers (0-8) @ Baltimore Ravens (4-5) (MNF - ESPN)
12.) Los Angeles Chargers (0-8) @ Baltimore Ravens (4-5) (MNF - ESPN)
11.) Jacksonville Jaguars (6-2) @ Tennessee Titans (1-7) (1:00 - FOX)
10.) Los Angeles Rams (5-4) @ Arizona Cardinals (3-6) (4:05 - CBS)
9.) Houston Texans (3-5) @ Cleveland Browns (5-3) (1:00 - FOX)
10.) Los Angeles Rams (5-4) @ Arizona Cardinals (3-6) (4:05 - CBS)
9.) Houston Texans (3-5) @ Cleveland Browns (5-3) (1:00 - FOX)
8.) Kansas City Chiefs (6-2) @ Atlanta Falcons (3-6) (1:00 - CBS)
I call it "Oof Sunday and Monday" as we get half the slate being fairly forgettable drek. Yes, like with any NFL football week, some of these games will end up good, but really this is rough. But this is probably what the rest of this season will be. People will say there are no truly great teams - I disagree, there are a bunch of good to great to teams. There's also a bunch of flotsam and jetsam at the bottom, and not a huge middle class this year. For that reason you get this.
7.) Seattle Seahawks (5-4) @ Las Vegas Raiders (4-5) (4:05 - CBS)
I call it "Spoiler??" Sunday, as we get a game that may end up noncompetitive enough that it should be with those first seven, but I have a weird feeling the Raiders can keep this close. The Seahawks aren't great agaisnt TEs. Cousins and this passing offense is the type that can have some level of success. Yes, the Seahawks should do well against the Raiders defense, but the Raiders have turned Las Vegas into a football town as well. Seahawks probably win, but I could definitely see a scare.
6.) Carolina Panthers (3-5) @ New Orleans Saints (3-5) (1:00 - FOX)
5.) Washington Commanders (2-5-1) @ New York Giants (5-2-1) (TNF - Prime)
I call it "The NFC South / East Carousel of Why Bother" Thursday and Sunday, as we get two interesting divisional matchups, but also games that expose how weak these divisions are. THe Panthers and Saints winner would ahve at least a share of the division lead, but if anything the two more interesting teams in the division are the other two. The Giants and Commanders get to replay that ridiculous tie where both teams threw the game away - oh what fun!? Realistically though, the Giants have a golden chance to go 6-2-1 and put real pressure on the Cowboys. Speaking of....
4.) San Francisco 49ers (7-1) @ Dallas Cowboys (4-5) (4:25 - FOX)
I call it "Get your popcorn ready" Sunday, as man, this could be a blowout. Now, the Cowboys have enough talent on offense to keep it interesting, but Shanahan has taken pride is just rolling the Cowboys any chance he gets. The 49ers should be relatively healthy. They always travel well and we can see a world where there is a lot of red in that stadium as well. The marquis name matchup has rarely felt so one sided.
3.) New England Patriots (5-4) @ Detroit Lions (6-2) (9:30 - FOX)
I call it "Get Right?" Sunday Morning, as the Patriots get a chacne to get things right against an easier defense (on paper) but arguably you can say the Lions get that chance as well - I'm sure their offense will relish going up against a defense that just got torched the way the Patriots did. All types of outcomes can work in this game, one of the last international ones of the season, and a game weirdly on FOX outright.
2.) Minnesota Vikings (6-2) @ Green Bay Packers (6-3) (1:00 - FOX)
1.) Pittsburgh Steelers (6-2) @ Cincinnati Bengals (6-2) (SNF - NBC)
1.) Pittsburgh Steelers (6-2) @ Cincinnati Bengals (6-2) (SNF - NBC)
I call it "THIS IS WHY WE WATCH" Sunday, as we get two great intra-division games. Vikings and Packers may have lost some sheen with just how bad that Vikings offense has been, but maybe Murray is back or maybe they trade for someone (Daniel Jones would be by far the funniest trade outcome). Either way, that defense i s still worth the price of admission, especially against the bombs-away Packers offense. For the second, this is just a beautiful Sunday Night Game - a showcase in the jungle for what is one of the top offenses in the NFL, a rematch game in an already great rivalry, maybe one of Aaron Rodgers last primetime games. So much good stuff going on. A lot of Sunday is not great, but this is a perfect way to end it.
