(A5) Los Angeles Chargers (11-6) @ (A4) Houston Texans (10-7)
Sat 4:35 - CBS | LAC -3.0
The Matchup: I'm trying to think through what the reasons are to pick the Texans in this game. They've been playing like a dead team for weeks now, basically ever since it became clear they were winning that division after sweeping the Colts. Stroud is no better than last year, and the receivers adn talent aroudn him on offense is worse. The Chargers are more competent than the 2023 Browns were (who the Texans routed in the Wild Card Round last year). The Chargers probably won't give them two pick-sixes. Herbert's ability to get rid of the ball will come in handy to partially neutralize the only real strength the Texans have, namely their pass rush. Sometimes it all is just a bit easy to understand in that way. The Chargers are better. Yes, being a road favorite in the wild card round is scary, but to be honest low road favorites (e.g. less than -5), generally have a good record. I can't see the Texans offense really getting anything going against a Chargers defense that, while taking some hits, is still better in that matchup.
The Pick: Chargers 24 Texans 14 (LAC -3)
(A6) Pittsburgh Steelers (10-7) @ (A3) Baltimore Ravens (12-5)
Sat 8:00 - Prime | BAL -9.5
The Matchup: That's a big line, especially now that we know Zay Flowers won't be playing. We have to go back three weeks when these teams played, when the Ravens won convincingly 34-17. Of course, the Steelers were two yards from taking a 14-7 lead in the first half, and a pick-six gives the game a more of a blowout feel than it was. Flowers had 100 yards on 5 catches. The Steelers are healthier than they were a few weeks back, the Ravens less so. That all said, the Steelers offense we've watched the past two games won't have a shot against a Ravens defense playing better now than it had to date. The Ravens pass rush is ratcheting up, and the linebacker core has settled down - important in both being able to spy Russ and stop Harris. Anyway, I think picking the Ravens to win is easy, but that is a big line. The Ravens match up well against a Pittsburgh team that doesn't always have lane integrity when rushing, and struggles against TEs. In the end, I think the line is just too big for a 3rd matchup between teams, especially when big lines often end in close games in this rivalry.
The Pick: Ravens 27 Steelers 20 (PIT +7)
(A7) Denver Broncos (10-7) @ (A2) Buffalo Bills (13-4)
Sun 1:00 - CBS | BUF -8.5
The Matchup: There are a few ways the Broncos can keep this close, if not win. Firstly, the Bills struggle on 3rd down (especially recently), which the Broncos have been above average at converting. The Broncos pass rush could win matchups against the Bills OL. Their top cornerback can take away at least one weapon of Allen's. Does this sound convinving? Yeah, I didn't think so either. The problem for the Broncos is that their best assets are things the Bills are good against. The Broncos have feasted on big plays in recent weeks - something the Bills are great at not allowing. The Bills biggest weakness is their run game - the Broncos are merely a middling run team. That whole Surtain thing? Well, what helps is the Bills is that they're more than happy throwing Cooper away and Allen winning with the rest. The Broncos are a good team, they are, in my mind, better than the Bengals. The Bills are better - it is a huge line, but I'll go with my gut that the Bills better matchups and better talent pull away.
The Pick: Bills 31 Broncos 13 (BUF -8.5)
(N7) Green Bay Packers (11-6) @ (N2) Philadelphia Eagles (14-3)
Sun 4:25 - FOX | PHI -4.5
The Matchup: Hurts was cleared today, so that brief window where it seemed he may not be ready is now gone. That makes this a lot simpler. I don't know why, but I'm quite confident in the Eagles in this game. The Packers receivers struggle at times with separation, especially a pointed problem without Christian Watson, and the Eagles secondary is way better now than it was in Week 1 when it was already forcing a bit of inaccuracy in Love. The Packers are a good rush defense, but haven't faced a rushing attack near the Eagles in ability in a long time - the last time they did was the Lions, who ran on them fairly well on Thanksgiving. The Eagles are just a really well put together team, and some random AJ Brown and Hurts infighting aside, I think they are too well rounded in this matchup. Particularly hte Eagles defense I feel can do well against a good but still inconsistent Packers offense. The Packers are still getting a good deal of love (no pun intended) in the line, so I think I'm safe here in picking the Eagles both heads up and ATS.
The Pick: Eagles 27 Packers 17 (PHI -4.5)
(N6) Washington Commanders (12-5) @ (N3) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (10-7)
Sun 8:00 - NBC | TB -3.0
The Matchup: This should be fun - easily the matchup with the best chance of a high scoring game, and deservedly one of the closer lines of the weekend. It's a bit surprising this is the SNF matchup, but I figure that's more FOX wanting to keep the best NFC matchup on paper for their window - NBC's loss is our gain. The Commanders and Buccaneers are similar in a way defensively - both liking to blitz a good deal. Daniels handles the blitz well, but inconsistently. If he can evade and get around it, this could be a long day for the Bucs - but my hunch is Bowles's defense wins enough of those matchups. Their secondary doesn't match up well though, where I can see McLaurin having a big day. On the other side, it's a similar story with Mayfield, and also if Evans can win the matchup against Lattimore (which I think he can). My main concern with the Bucs in this game is they have a habit of not leaning into the run, a more pointed worry in a game that could be high scoring. They can make hay on that side, but I do have a fear it gets too background ball with Mayfield. In the end, I have no real reason for the pick other than a gut feeling, but I think Daniels legs beats the blitz enough to take it.
The Pick: Commanders 30 Buccaneers 27 (WAS +3.0)
(N5) Minnesota Vikings (14-3) @ (N4) Los Angeles Rams (10-7)
Mon 8:20 - ESPN | MIN -3.0
The Matchup: This was a line closer to MIN -1.0 until the game got shifted to Arizona. I don't know how a big a deal that is, if only because the Rams don't have that great a home environment / edge anyway. At the end, I think there is a big disrespect to the Vikings with this line, off of in reality one poor game and poor showing by Darnold. Sure, I guess there is a reading of this whereby the clock struck midnight on Darnold's brilliant 2024 season, and his pumpkin-ness will continue, but otherwise not sure what we're doing here. The Vikings are a better team. They matchup well, generally limiting YAC, being able to get consistent pressure, something Stafford increasingly struggles with. On the other side, as long as the can keep Darnold clean (which, granted, is not an easy task against the Rams DL), the Rams do not have the secondary to stop Jefferson and Addison. Now, the Rams did win the earlier matchup of these two teams, but that was a game the Vikings played well down to down but had critical mistakes. That all could re-occur, of course, but I think we're all generally playing victim to one bad game, and the idea of how the good the Rams can be (the first Vikings game, the Bills game) and ignoring the larger evidence of what these teams normally are.
The Pick: Vikings 27 Rams 20 (MIN -3.0)
