(A4) Houston Texans (10-7) @ (A1) Kansas City Chiefs (15-2)
Sat, 4:35 - ESPN | KC -8.5
The Matchup: I'll start off by saying this - I think the Chiefs win the game. They are too good at the crucial small moments, be it 3rd down or 4th quarter. Their defense is healthier than its been since the beginning of the season with the return of Jaylen Watson. Their offense is similar, except for one crucial place which makes me think the Texans keep it close: the OT situation. As I write this, it is still a bit unclear who will start at tackle for the Chiefs. Even when we do know, there's no guarantee the person that starts the game at LT will end it. The Texans have a massive edge there and for taht can put pressure on Mahomes and force them to do dink and dunk their way down the field. Granted, teh Chiefs have been doing that for much of the season and still doing it well enough for it to work. I think the Chiefs are better now than they were when they needed blocked field goals and missed field goals and such to win games mid-season, but the Texans are an opponent with some clear matchup strengths to turn the Chiefs offense back into that type of unit. Not even to mention their secondary being able to lock the Chiefs receivers. If there was ever a game the Chiefs need the old Kelce back, it is this one. In the end, the Chiefs are just still too good, but I do think this line massively undervalues the Texans.
The Pick: Chiefs 24 Texans 17 (HOU +8.5)
(N6) Washington Commanders (12-5) @ (N1) Detroit Lions (15-2)
Sat, 8:00 - FOX | DET -9.5
The Matchup: The Lions in a way should fear this matchup, because their weakness is still the defense. Aaron Glenn's unit pulled off something magical in the Week 18 win over Minnesota, but more likely they resemble the unit that the 49ers carved up the week prior. The Commanders offense is excellent, and the Lions will probably have to resort to blitzes to get consistent pressure on Daniels. Jayden isn't amazing against the blitz yet, so there is that advantage. This all said, I brought up that 49ers performacne against the Lions two weeks ago for multiple reasons - I talked about what that may foretell for the Lions defense, but let's remember the Lions in the end won that game fairly easily. The Lions offense should move the ball at ease against a Commanders defense that is playing above its head. In the end, these are two similar teams in that sense, but the Lions offense is just a tier better, their OL should be able to neutralize the Commanders relative strength on defense, and being at home is the cherry on top. Wouldn't be surprised that much like the aforementioned 49ers game, the Commanders keep it close for a half, but the talent gap of the Lions offense against Commanders defense wins out over time.
The Pick: Lions 34 Commanders 20 (DET -9.5)
(N4) Los Angeles Rams (10-7) @ (N2) Philadelphia Eagles (14-3)
Sun, 3:00 - NBC | PHI -6.5
The Matchup: I need to take my medicine for being down on the Rams - they were great last week. Great gameplan and even better execution. So good job boys, because I generally still think they are a class or two below the level of this Eagles team. We saw this matchup a few weeks back - it was one of the few losses the Rams had in the back half of the season, and it wans't close. The Eagles went to LA and easily beat them. Of course, things can change, but what would? The Rams rush defense is relatively poor and the Eagles can dominate that matchup. The Eagles OL should also do a whole lot better against a good Rams DL than the Vikings did. But really, my concern is the other side of the ball. The Eagles don't need to blitz and let Stafford pick them apart like the Vikings did. They have the secondary to at least helm in Kupp and Nacua, and the DL to not let the run game get off the ground. I can see this being lower scoring than the Week 12 game. The Eagles pass offense is of course still not doing all so well, but I think they can lean on Saquon and the run game, and Brown and Smith to win enough 1:1s to score enough to put it out of reach. There is a chance we are all underrating this Eagles team - winning a playoff game by 12 playing a "C" game is probably a good indication of what their true level can be.
The Pick: Eagles 27 Rams 17 (PHI -6.5)
(A3) Baltimore Ravens (12-5) @ (A2) Buffalo Bills (13-4)
Sun, 6:30 - CBS | BAL -1.0
The Matchup: What a game. I won't let this dissolve into just a discussion of the two QBs. I think its easier to think of the totality here. The Ravens crushed the Bills 35-10 this season, but that was Week 4. The Bills were missing a handful of key defensive starters that are all back. Granted, that still leaves that shorthanded against a Ravens offense seemingly built to attack the Bills key weakness of giving up too many chunk plays on the ground. Granted, the Bills also get a lot of stuffs, but that high variance rush defense is not a good match in this one. Both teams will try to run the ball which is why I can foresee a lower scoring game even if both offenses play relatively well - something like last year's divisional the Bills lost to the Chiefs. If anything, I think the Bills have a lot of matchup edges against the Ravens defense. The Bills OL should win their individual matchups in pass protection. The Bills offensive weapons are myriad enough to pick on the lesser members of the Ravens secondary - particularly their TEs to me have matchup edges. Lost in the Week 4 loss was Allen was missing Shakir as well. Finally the home factor, and the weather. Granted, the bitter cold in Buffalo should also help Henry's rushes get that much more punishing. I really don't know. The Ravens have a lot of good matchups but I do think we're underrating the matchup advantages the Bills offense have against the Ravens defense. The Bills faced arguably a better defense last week and slaughtered them. There won't be a slaughter here, but I think the Bills have slightly too much and will pull this off.
The Pick: Bills 27 Ravens 24 (BUF +1.0)
