Before I dive in, I do want to stress one point, this is not my ranking of the team's chances in each conference to make the Super Bowl. It's my ranking of how good I think the seven teams are relative to each other. Case in point - I do think the Ravens are more likely to make the Super Bowl than the Bills, even though I ranked the Bills higher, because I think the Ravens match up super well with the Bills. But in the AFC as a whole, I believe the Bills are better (i.e. I would pick the Bills over the Chiefs more than I would pick the Ravens over the Chiefs....). Anyway, with that quick aside...
7.) Houston Texans = 10-7 (372-372)
This whole Texans year was one big, long sophomore slump. From the shine completely gone from Bobby Slowik's offense, to Stroud himself. The defense didn't have a huge slump, with players like Derek Stingley and Will Anderson having good seasons. But even that defense has holes, particularly against hte run. The OL is in shambles, they're missing a top weapon with the awful Tank Dell injury. And yeah, that offense is just broken at the moment. The record is the same, but the tone around this team could not be more different this year.
6.) Pittsburgh Steelers = 10-7 (380-347)
It would be easy to rank the Steelers even lower than the Texans - as they become just the third team since 1985 to enter the playoffs on a four (or more) game losing streak. But to be fair to them at least, that was a rough four game stretch to go into the playoffs, losing to three of the best teams in the NFL, and then a Week 18 game that (1) wasn't a must win and (2) they played about as bad as you can in many places and still nearly won. The defense is still very talented, and assuming Pickens's awful Week 18 was a one-week mirage, I firmly believe this is a better version of the Steelers than the fraudulent 9-7-1 2021 team (that lost 14-42 to the Chiefs in the Wild Card round) and 10-7 2023 team (lost 17-31 to the Bills). This is a decent team, where if you sprinkle the Eagles, Ravens and Chiefs more randomly in the schedule - or to be honest just switch the order of the two Ravens games (e.g. they lose the first one and win the rematch), this team feels much different entering the playoffs.
5.) Los Angeles Chargers = 11-6 (402-301)
The Chargers have some strengths on paper, particularly lack of turnovers, solid running game, and strong defense. But then again, that track record is hard to trust. Their "best" results, honestly, are close losses to the Chiefs (twice), and Ravens. Their best wins are, at this point, sweeping Denver (more on why I have Denver higher in a second). Herbert is a very good player and he has taken to this 'limit mistakes / Harbaugh-ball' quite well. There is a ceiling to that style, but there is a floor as well. Their only real ugly loss was that Bucs game a few weeks back (granted, it was UGLY). But a team that can really limit turnovers, shorten games, and plays well at all levels of the defense is a playoff sleeper.
4.) Denver Broncos = 10-7 (425-311)
Ok, so yes, the Broncos were swept by the Chargers. Their point differential looks sexy now, but 1/3rd of that is just that 38-0 fake game against hte Chiefs. I chalk this up to the fact that to me it's a wash between the Broncos higher offensive ceiling, and Chargers higher offensive floor, and I like the Broncos defense slightly more than San Diego's at this point - healthier and more true top-end players like Surtain and, at least for this year, Bonitto and Cooper on the edge. Payton can get in a play-calling zone as well. Now, all that said, there is a very good chance they lose their wild card game and the Chargers win, but that is as much just about matchups than anything else. Flip the order of their seeds and I think the Broncos beat the Texans and the Bills beat the Chargers. To cap it, yes there is some fear of Bo Nix as a rookie, but that's priced in for my view of the Broncos having a fairly low floor on offense.
3.) Baltimore Ravens = 12-5 (518-361)
Advanced stats have this as the best team in the league. I'm a tad skeptical, not because they aren't truly great, but because they are also so high variance. If you say what team had the best top six wins - they're easily the best in the AFC (probably only Detroit comes close leaguewide). However, they also have two or three of the worst losses in that group. The defense has been much better in recent games, against a softer slate of offenses to close it. I have my doubts also if Zay Flowers has any lingering injury issues if that offense will play to the same level of performance. And finally, while Derrick Henry is amazing, we've also seen him (and runners like him, having seasons like this) at some point be stopped in the playoffs. The Ravens easily can win the AFC. I don't think in a vacuum they are the conferences best team.
2.) Kansas City Chiefs = 15-2 (385-326)
In isolation, this is one of the msot inexplicable seasons ever. They've outpaced their pythag win expectation more than any team ever. Granted, that is massively impacted based on their 0-38 loss - but even before that, in a 14-2 record with a +97 point differential (what they were at before last game) is also plainly not impressive. But the impressive part? The knowledge they are teh two-time defending champions that will be healthier in teh playoffs than they've been in months, with the potential return of Jaylen Watson. There is a chance, sure, that thsi is all smoke and mirrors and comes crashing down, but there is structure and strength in the knowledge that they're the best team in the league on 3rd down, that they're the best in late & close situations. Many of us are going against all historical priors by saying that there is reality in what is normal season to season variance that is hard to trust, and yes because we're saying that that normal magic is outweighed by the historical prior of them being the two time champions and 15-1 in games they tried to win this year.
1.) Buffalo Bills = 14-3 (525-368)
The Bills are the best team in teh AFC in my mind. The most complete team. The team with the highest floor and probably 2nd highest ceiling. Now, they match up horribly with the Ravens given the main weakness the Bills have is their rushing defense, something the Ravens took full advantage of in their 35-10 win way back in Week 4. But this is not a ranking of the likelihood I see each of the seven making teh Super Bowl. Josh Allen has been protected and found a great rhythm with his bevy of options. He's playing controlled, and played specatularly aside from a two week stretch (the losses to Baltimore and Houston back in Week 4-5). The defense is getting healthier and is sound enough on the back end to not give up huge explosives in that area (which gives me good faith in their matchup against Denver, at least). The Bills may easily not reach the Super Bowl, given the road they may have to traverse, but they still to me are the best team in the AFC in the year 2024.
My Ranking of the NFC Teams
7.) Los Angeles Rams = 10-7 (367-386)
The Rams are a funny team, because there is a lot to like in theory - from Stafford, to a healthy Kupp / Nucua pairing, to a DL that has really improved. But as weird as it sounds to say this - there is a chance the Rams are less than the sum of their parts; or at minimum the potential sum of their parts. Who are the real Rams? The ones that beat the Vikings and the Bills? Or the ones that scored 44 points over three games against the 49ers, Jets and Cardinals, and barely beat the Patriots? Stafford is just a bit too inconsistent given the combination of his age & protection. The secondary is still iffy. The run game can be had (granted, every now and then can be dynamic). And at the end of the day, hard to trust a playoff team with a -19 point differential.
6.) Green Bay Packers = 11-6 (460-338)
This is graded with the knowledge Christian Watson is done for the year, and Love will almost certainly play in the wild card roud. Not sure had we not had those injury scares they rank any higher - maybe flip them and the team at #5. For the Packers, Love is excellent, but can be inaccurate at times. There is that hero ball penchant still in there, and with one of his more dependable options out I do worry the potential implications. The defense is a good roster, but over the year I'm not sure Jeff Haflley has shown much flexibility over the year. Put it this way - I don't know if this team is meaningfully better than the one that played Week 1 against the Eagles. Now that team was/is still good enough to hang with a Eagles-type team. The NFC field is overall very strong this year.
5.) Washington Commanders = 12-5 (485-391)
I hemmed and hawed between the Packers and Commanders ranking. Put it this way - I actually do think Daniels is better than Jordan Love (or at least the Commanders offense is most trustworthy than the Packers offense - and I'm guessing it's not because Kliff is a better playcaller than Lafleur...), the top weapons are all healthy. On the other side, the Commanders defense isn't good, but playing better the second half of the year. Fowler and Luvu have remained a good rushing pair for the entirety of the season. Quinn's scheme isn't groundbreaking, but they aren't getting embarrassed, and pair that with a Top-8 offense (where I think the Packers are squarely, though not farly, away from), and you get what I think is a very live wild card.
4.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers = 10-7 (502-385)
I'll admit there is some bias here - both bias on over-weighting them at their best (e.g. hammering the Chargers) and a bias on loving the fact they continue to be better than the final Brady-year. Now, their listless first half against the Saints hurts me there, but I do chalk that up to a bit of nerves. That game also showed a lot of why their upside is so high - from their pass rush, to Mayfield being able to turn to a level that is among the best in the league at his best. The Bucky Irving rushing game gives them such a different dimension as well. The defense doesn't have the ability to dominate like it did in 2020-2021, but with a healthy Vita Vea, and many others, and the Bowles scheme, there is a high upside, even if it's only a 20% chance you get anything close to that upside.
3.) Minnesota Vikings = 14-3 (432-332)
I get why we were all immediately quick to throw the Darnold jokes around again after his admittedly poor performance in Week 18. Granted, for many that was the first time we were seriously watching the Vikings, a bit of a forgotten team for weeks while the Lions and Eagles were going on their elongated win streaks. The Vikings though to me are a really good team, call them a B+ version of the Eagles (spoiler: my #1). The Vikings have good players throughout that defense, elevated by one unit playing amazing (their two edge rushers). Their offense has few weaknesses, and a QB playing really well and clearly being elevated by one of the better #1/#2 WR combos (and the best receiver still, in my view). The Vikings enter the playoffs in a cold spot, but I still think are a cut above the four other NFC playoff teams below them. There's also still to me enough trust in this coaching staff to believe Week 18 to be the fluke, and not the magic of Weeks 1-17.
2.) Detroit Lions = 15-2 (564-332)
I forgot to mention in that Vikings section that the other reason we shouldn't be so quick to mock Darnold, is my Word was that Lions defensive performance beautiful. Yes, we know about all the guys they've lost on that side of the ball, but given how good their offense is, the margin of error on the defensive side is giant. And with Aaron Glenn calling the shots and that secondary playing above their heads, they can easily meet that bar. The offense is still amazing. Yes, if you can consistently pressure Goff his level will drop a lot, but few teams can consistently pressure him given teh strength of the Lions OL and the quick-game taht Ben Johnson often turns to when expecting the heat (granted, it at times doesn't pay off - see the early drives of the Week 18 game). What's been really nice to see this year is how they've expanded the utility and therefore value of Jameson Williams. This Lions team is stacked, and would be #1 if Aiden Hutchinson was healthy. That's just a fact.
1.) Philadelphia Eagles = 14-3 (463-303)
I'm writing this assuming Jalen Hurts will be back, but his continued presence in concussion protocol is concerning for sure. But, if we assume he does play, I do think the Eagles are the best team in the NFL. It is amazing how quickly they were able to replace Kelce, shuffle a few other pieces, adn return so quickly to being one of the league's best OLs. Devonta Smith's best year to date has added another layer to the offense, as of course has Saquon (aided by that prior mentioned amazing OL). The defense may not have the pass rush of the 2022 unit, but their secondary is better - both in personnel and scheme. It took a while to mesh, but they are the league's best secondary at this point. The team is battle tested - rolling the Rams in LA, fairly convincingly beating the Ravens in Baltimore, destroying that media-darling Cincinnati team in Cincinnati. Their only real blemish was a beatdown in Tampa, but both Brown and Smith missed that game. The other two losses they could've easily won, and there's very few wins that they came all that close to losing. People are loathe to give Sirianni much credit, and to be fair the two coordinators deserve a ton of praise, but say what you want about him, but he went 26-5 from the start of 2022 through the 10-1 start in 2023, then after a very rocky 3-8 stretch, has gone 12-1 since - basically a 38-6 run outside the messy end of 2023. Hard to argue with that track record.
