2023 NFL Playoffs: Championship Games Review

Player of the Week: Steve Spagnuolo (DC, KC)

Because of what he did to beat the 2007 Patriots, I've always been a Spags stan. It crested during last season when he took a fairly middling talent team through a great playoffs. I'm so glad Spagnuolo is finally getting his flowers this year, and his defenses performance against the Ravens was masterful. Yes, it was helped by some odd playcalling, but he loaded the box and dared the Ravens to throw. They did, and his team responded by owning what had been a good OL, covering receivers well and turning guys like Drue Tranquill into superstars for a day. Spags's defense has been great all year. I lost my mind when people were saying "this is the worst team Patrick Mahomes has had." Worst offense? Maybe. But best defense, led by a masterful Spags at his best.

Runner-Up: Christian McCaffrey (RB, SF)

It really could go to a number of 49ers but McCaffrey to me exhibited teh msot calmness and poise throughout the 49ers huge comeback. His runs were excellent, against what had been a very good Lions rush defense. His play on the edge, with stiff-arm after stuff-arm, was something else. He consistently got 8 yards when others would've gotten two, or 20 yards when others would've gotten 8. He's the most important part of that offense - the 2023 version of Marshall Faulk for the Greatest Show on Turf Rams. The numbers didn't overwhelm, but he was the one guy the Lions had no answers for the entire game.

Goat of the Week: Lions's Hands

All this annoying discourse about 4th down decision making could have been avoided if the Lions, up to that point playing basically a perfect game, had remembered to catch the ball. Josh Reynolds was by far the worst and most impactful offender - his drop on the first 4th down in the second half, taking away what would've been a sure 3-points in teh 24-10 game, stemming any early momentum. Then of course his drop on 3rd and 8 on the drive after the 49ers tied the game. The 49ers had the momentum, but Reynolds found himself wide open for a 15+ yard gain - which could've reset things. Instead another awful drop. And of course who can forget the drop and facemask pop-up by Viledor. That one was bad execution adn terrible luck that it turns into a 50-yard completion, but in that second half, the Lions hands just disappeared.

Runner-Up: The Ravens Poise

OK, this is a weird once since it isn't exactly a player. I thought of giving it to Zay Flowers, who ahd the most impactful mistake with the fumble at the 1/2-yard line, but that was also just a great play by Sneed. But how about the taunting penalty, or him cutting his hand in disgust. There was the Jackson forced throw into triple coverage after quick-snapping the Chiefs. There was the personal foul by Kyle Van Noy, one fo the more experienced Ravens in big games, which turned a likely Chiefs run-out-the-clock into an eventual field goal drive. The Ravens just seemed over-amped to their own harm.

Surprise of the Week: Lions Secondary

Odd that I'm picking a performance from a losing team, but I want to throw one out for the Lions oft-maligned secodnary. Sutton had generally a good game, forcing some tight window throws to Samuel and Aiyuk. Various guys did well on Kittle - his one good play being when covered by a linebacker. On the 50-yard catch by Aiyuk, it was great bracket coverage. The Lions secondary didn't lose this game. I guess you can say they dropped two additional interceptions, so didn't help "win" it enough, but for what was the clear weakness of the team coming in, played out closer to a draw than you would expect.

Runner-Up: Chiefs Running Game

This shouldn't be a surprise by now. Pacheco was incredibly important in the Chiefs title run last year, but his ability to churn out 3-6 yards so consistently is such a hidden weapon for the Cheifs. It helps when Creed Humphrey and Trey Smith also had their best games of the year in opening up slight lanes that the hard charging Pacheco did well to work through. The Ravens had a great rush defense. The Chiefs consistently won that battle. If anything, they didn't run enough in that second half, after the Ravens got a beat on the Chiefs passing game.

Disappointment of the Week: Raven's Abandoning the Run

Pretty obvious one here. I'll never understand them calling just 6 runs to running backs in the game. Gus Edwards had one carry for 15 yards in the first half. It isn't like the Chiefs were stoning every run play. It wasn't like they weren't getting quick pressure on Lamar. I get that they were loading the box, but the Ravens are the best rushing team in the NFL and just abondoned it cold. Just bizarre from Monken and Jackson.

Runner-Up: The 4th Down Discourse

It shocks me that so many people seem to actually be seriously criticizing Dan Campbell. Firstly, he has said many times these are "gut" decisions for him and not some by-the-book analytical play. But anyway, he has been aggressive his whole tenure. His kicker is not all that good, so bypassing 47 and 48 yard field goals is hardly surprising. On one of the 4th downs Reynolds should have caught it and converted. It bums me that so much of this is due to result over decision. If anything crystallizes this point it is that the most unconvetionally gutsy 4th down call was the Ravens going for it on 4th and 1 from their own 34 in the first quarter - Jackson got 20+ yards and not one peep after that. Just be consistent.

Team Performance of the Week: Chiefs Secondary

What the Chiefs did in that game was stunning in its completeness. Everyone in the secondary was amazing. Sneed and McDuffie with great coverage throughout - erasing everyone but a few big plays by Zay Flowers. Tranquill was excellent as a semi-spy, semi-blitzer. Justin Reid was fantastic as the last line of defense and spot TE-coverage duty. They kept things in front of them. They tackled well. The Chiefs have invested a lot in that secondary the last few years. They were already good heading into this season but took it up a notch, no more than their performance to put the clamps on the Ravens - fit with the biggest play of the game in Sneed's punch-out.

Runner-Up: 49ers OL

The Lions best strength on defense is its DL. They had a few nice moments particularly in teh first half, such as the bull rush that led to the pick, and a couple stuffs. On the whole though, a generally maligned unit in the 49ers OL (Trent Williams excluded) won that matchup throughout. The running lanes for CMC. The great protection in the second half for Purdy, even doing well to clear paths for him to step up and run. They'll need this level of OL play to have a chance in the Super Bowl.

Team Laydown of the Week: Ravens OL

A week after road-grading the Texans, teh Ravens OL suffered all day. Ronnie Stanley had some awful moments, including the strip-sacks where he was beaten almost instantly. Then comes Simpson being bull rushed into Lamar repeatedly. They had a tough time picking up blitzes. Jackson was pressured under two seconds repeatedly. Sure, maybe they could've had more hot reads and what not, but the Ravens OL that was such a strength all year picked an awful time to have their worst game.

Runner-Up: Nothing (yeah, it was that type of week)

Storyline that will be Beat into the Ground: Chiefs Dynasty Prospects

The discussion has already started - this is the game the Chiefs can cement themselves as a dynasty. Forget that they really already are - six straight trips to the AFC Title Game, four to Super Bowls, two titles. Win or lose to me this is a dynasty. But anyway, what I more hate about this discourse is we're starting to see the first time the "Is Mahomes > Brady?" question being raised and unsurprsingly this has led to some truly awful discourse. I do want to see a back-to-back winner for the first time in 19 years. I do want a clear true dynasty. But also I hate that this storyline will dominate the two weeks.

Storyline that Should be Beat into the Ground: 49ers Pass Rush, Where Art Thou!?

There will be a lot of mentions of Super Bowl LIV as we head into this game - a game that the 49ers were controlling at 20-10 into the 4th quarter, to that point forcing Mahomes into legitimately a bad game. How? Well their pass rush consistently won down after down through most of that game. Some Mahomes brilliance - and Garoppolo misses - turned it all around, but the 49ers showed in that game how they can slow down the Chiefs. The 2023 49ers, at least the version from this last 6-7 weeks, is a far cry from 2019 though. Bosa may be the same, but Arik Armstead has been relatively quiet. The Chase Young experiment is working yet. Jovan Hargrave has been quiet. There's no Deforest Bucknor this year. Then again, the pass rush came to life in the second half of the title game. The 49ers have to hope that was the rebirth of what should be a huge asset for them. If that continues, it can really turn the Super Bowl around.

Early Super Bowl Prediction: Chiefs 27  49ers 23

New York City vs London - The (Subjective) Objective Head to Head

Just spent a week in the UK for work, first an internal training a few hours outside London, and then a few days in London itself. Today as I write this, I'm in the air on the way from London back to New York. It struck me on days like today that I am doing something in one day that about 100 years ago would've been mind blowing - being in London and New York on the same day.

London and New York run the world in a way - even in the globalized world we live in right now. There's a study/panel called the Globalization and World Cities (GaWC) Research Network, a blue-ribbon type deal that every 5-6 years will categorize the cities of the world into groups of how integrated and connected they are to the global world economy. While the study is a bit business-focused (vs. say culture or tourism), it is basically a proxy of "how important and meaningful is this place". The highest level is Alpha++, then Alpha+, Alpha, Alpha-, Beta+, Beta, Beta- (then on and on). There are seven Alpha+ cities in the 2020 release: Beijing, Dubai, Hong Kong, Paris, Shanghai, Singapore and Tokyo. Fair enough. There are just two in the Alpha++ bucket - unsurprisingly it is London and New York City. There's a lot of, simply put, "coolness" being in the standout two most important cities in teh world in the same day.

I've long talked about my relative cool feelings around London compared to other leading world cities - this is moreso from a tourism, culture, anthropological way. I've ranked it in the low-teens of the Top-60 Cities (International) list, and fundamentally don't think it should be higher. But anyway, what I really wanted to do is just compare these two Alpha++ cities head to head. Basically, of these two, which do I find to be just the better city.

Now, as an American who grew up in New Jersey, now works in New York, this is an obvious decision. Spoiler Alert - New York City will win. I have about 15-20 different dimensions that I'll split 10 points among the two cities. They won't all go to New York. There will be some that London wins in a rout. But I think I can go fairly clear here and list out the reasons why I prefer, nay I just can effectively state, that New York is the superior Alpha++, global megacity - whether to live, to tour or to just be....

Public Transit (Metro v Subway):

Ok, let's start out with one that London wins, though I would argue by not as much as people would think. What London's Tube absolutely has over New York is the cleanliness of the standard tube station, and the reliability of its lines. Far less delays, far less random weekend diversions. That said, I do think New York's lines and layout is far better (way too many times in London you have to change lines for what should be a fairly straight path). And I think the actual subway cars are, at this point, even. New York City has the awful C-line trains, but their no worse than just say the Piccadilly line. The good trains in New York are, I would argue, better than London. Also, major bonus to New York's system being 24/7 - because as we'll get to in the next section, above ground public transport is worse in London.

London wins 6-4

Driving / Street Layout

This is a huge rout for New York City, to be honest. London's street system is the most ludicrous set of turns and curves and random splits. It takes forever to go anywhere, and again routes that as the crow flies are perfectly straight, end up being bizarrely turn-heavy. What makes it worse is there's zero coordination between traffic lights. New York doesn't have good traffic, but the parallel grid in Manhattan, and largely parallel grid everywhere, is so superior. As is the light coordination. Every true New Yorker has that experience in a cab and uber late at night when they can go from 50th street to 20th street on one go because the green's line up. I've never had a good driving experience in London. I've had many in New York. This is easy.

New York City wins 9-1 (only not 10-0 because at rush hour NYC traffic is as bad...)

Historical Sights

Yeah, easy one for London here. To me historical has to mean before 1950 or something, so NYC does have the Empire State Building, St. Patrick's, Ellis Island, the Statue of Liberty and some smaller sites within the city, but that's nothing compared to London with the Parliament Building, Big Ben, Buckingham Palace, and so much else. London is just a city that has been in its standing for far, far longer than New York City has. I'm not going to argue this one further here.

London wins 8-2 (as you'll come to see, there's not really going to be any 10-0's)

Museums

Maybe my first controversial pick - but New York City wins this, for one huge reason: the great museums of London are a pointed reminder of teh unabashed raping and pillaging of the world by the Crown under Colonialization. Now, it's not like when you see an Egyptian exhibit at the Met in New York it's because New York "discovered" it - but at least we didn't steal it in an era when we colonized Egypt. The British Museum is one of the great museums in the world - but also is a telling reminder of how awful the Crown was to the full world. Anyway, I would almost argue New York City could win this anyway. The main art museums in New York (The Met, the Guggenheim) to me are just flat out better. I prefer the Natural History Museum in New York to anything in London. On merit alone New York would squeak it out - add in the history, and it's a no brainer.

New York City wins 8-2 (would've been 6-4 if not for, you know...)

Walk Around during the Day

New York is a nice city to walk around in, but the concrete jungle of it all, and the parallel-ness of the layout can get tiresome. In London proper it is not. The architecture of the buildings, the rows of rows of ornateness, the history teeming from the walls. It all adds up to a great city to walk around. Now, pretty much any European capital is (again, why I ahve places like Paris, Rome, Madrid, Barcelona ahead of London on my city rankings), but London has this. New York City just doesn't.

London wins 7-3

Walk Around at dusk & night

New York comes back here with a vengeance. At night, the concrete jungle turns to lit office buildings and brightness that gives solid truth to the "city that never sleeps" of it all. There is truth to that. The old buildings of London recede into the background. The brightness of New York, the life of it at night is just superior to London. It's a bit of a mirror image here, but an important one to give credit on both sides.

New York City wins 7-3

Food

I know many are going to disagree with me here (including members of my family) but I honestly think New York City wins. For one reason: South & Central America. If that continent didn't exist, maybe you can edge towards London, but even in that case New York City has great cuisine from every culture around the world. Yes, Indian food is better in the UK (again, colonialism!) but there's damn good Indian food in New York City, and I would argue better Japanese, Thai, Korean food in New York. If we just talk about the local cuisine, you can keep your tea & crumpets, but there's a reason we all laugh at British food. You can deride American food if you want but as a standalone it is simply a better cuisine. And finally - it might be changing slowly, but the wealth of Latino immigrants has resulted in incredible Central & South American cuisine, from street food, to hole in the walls to sit-down to tasting menus. That is something London simply does not have. I think it's close, but the better food from that Continent swings it for me.

New York City wins 6-4

Fast / Late Night Food

I don't know if this is as controversial, but New York City in my mind wins here. Both have a plethora of the world's late night good - gyros & kebabs. London does have the doner (so prevalent in Europe) but the carts of New York more than hold their own. New York City also has pizza - which is just something that London can't match in any design, especially since legitimately good, renowned pizza spots stay open late. Both have traditional fast food about equally (won't ding London that a lot of those are American chains...). London's only unique factor is fish and chips, but pizza way outweighs that.

New York City wins 8-2

Beer / Social Drinking Scene

Another spoiler - this is my biggest win for London, mainly because they have the pub culture which there is just no equivalent in the US. Yes, the craft beer in the US is better, but there's a reason most of the mainstream beer spots in the US are pubs. But they don't have the spill-out-to-the-streets, the revelry, the singing, the fun of it all. The after work to the pub is probably my favorite aspect of all my work trips to London over the years. New York City got a taste of this during the pandemic when outdoor drinking was more allowed. It was great. It should come back. It went away and London retains its spot pretty easily.

London wins 7-3

Party Culture

Big, Big, Big win for New York City, Granted, I haven't gone out super-late too often, but there is a squalid-ness to the London club scene, and sparse lack of late-night cocktail scene, that New York City just hammers away at. There are so many cool art spaces w/ DJ spots in New York, or world-class cocktail spots that stay open till 3/4 in New York City. London shuts down at 3am - but post say 1am it is mostly dingy clubs that are too chav-filled and poorly maintained to really compete here. Also, the crowd in London doesn't know how to handle their booze past a certain time - the streets of soho wreak of piss in spots because of this. Big win for New York City.

New York City wins 9-1 

Views

This one is close. Neither have particularly great views within the city. Where I think London wins though is the low-ness of most of its areas mean you get views of the tall buildings, the main areas, from more parts of the city. If you take just the view of Manhattan from Hoboken or from Brooklyn it is better than London - particularly since most of the development in London is north of the Thames, but if you are in Manhattan itself, it becomes a bit too urban maw too quick.

London wins 6-4

Main City Squares/Circles

Gonna nudge New York City here - taking its collection of all the Broadway intersections with Avenues, be it Columbus Circle, Time Square, Bryant Park, Flatiron, Washington Square over London's Trafalgar Square, Piccadilly Circus, St. James Square and others. Trafalgar might be the best out of all of them, but I would put the next 3-4 as New York City spots. Columbus Circle is underrated in its awe. Flatiron is a perfect urban spot. And yeah, Times Square gets a bad wrap, but since Giuliani it has been kept really clean, and its brightness and life is still enthralling. It's comparison point is Piccadilly Circus, which is a pale, pale, pale imitation that is leaning into the worst aspects of Times Square without any of the good ones.

New York City wins 6-4

Outer Boroughs

Big win for New York here - but I'll admit I'm probably fairly unqualified to talk about London's areas outside of the main Cities of London & Westminster. Their doing ok to rebuild out the docklands, and Kensington is nice and whatnot, but Brooklyn is world renowned as a place of cultures, arts, waterfronts, neighborhoods. Queens has its moments. I don't think London is markedly worse but I also don't think London has anything quite like Brooklyn.

New York City wins 6-4

Parks

Oh I would love to give it to New York City, especially after the cleaning up of Central Park but I just can't reasonably do so. Central Park has some amazing areas. The big parks in Brooklyn are wonderful. But I can't in good faith say any are better than St. James's park (yeah, the adjacent royalty stuff is there) or Hyde park. New York City is a greener city than people give it credit for but there's a difference between a decently green city and London.

London wins 7-3

Bridges

I'm talking here about the beauty of the bridges more than the actual utility of them. For London you get all the bridges that cross the Thames, led by the stunning Tower Bridge. For New York, you get the various bridges in and out of Manhattan and a few other notables ones (Verrazano, Guwanis) led by the Brooklyn Bridge. I think London squeaks this one out but might be the closest one that we've had so far. On the London side, they have the single best bridge - the Tower Bridge is just an incredibly picturesque and memorable spot. Few of the other bridges are even close, but they all have amazing views and are easily walkable. New York City has probably my #2 and #3 with the Brooklyn Bridge and the Verrazano (which has such a regality to it), but the rest are all fairly staid, and I have an unnatural hatred for the George Washington bridge.

London wins 6-4

CBD / City Center Skyline

London's skyline is getting better. With the Shard, whatever that Walkie-Talkie building is, the other tall spots in Canary Wharf and the City of London and what-not - it is not a bad skyline, arguably the best in Europe. It isn't close to New York City son. Some of the Asian cities may have overtaken NYC by now, but few have the collection of buildings, in multiple areas, than New York City's downtown (complete again post Freedom Tower conclusion) and midtown, with the Hudson Yards redevelopment and other skyscrapers just adding to the beauty. You even get the great mix of old and new, with the Empire State Building and the Chrysler Building still with good prominence. Few cities have the clustered brilliance of New York City.

New York City wins 8-2

Relevance to World Pop Culture

Ok, walk with me on this journey for a second. Over the last 50 years, the world's axis turned to the US and moreso to New York City. Hip Hop / R&B / Rap has many homes - but New York is either #1 or #2 in that list. The art culture of the 21st Century has its roots in New York City. Fashion is far more prominent in New York City than London (though say a place like Milan still holds an edge). New York City is just the far more relevant place in the global pop culture, from movies to art to fashion to culture. It sets trends in a way maybe London did 100 years ago. This isn't close, and a fitting way to end.

New York City wins 8-2

Final Tally:

New York City 98  London 72

Honestly, it's closer than I even thought. I'm sure there are also a lot of fields I didn't really think about or consider. Cost of Living / Price being a big one - I probably should've noted somewhere that rent is far more ridiculous in New York City now, but day to day expenses are worse in London, particularly when adjusting for average income by job type in London being far lower than New York City. You can add different factors for days - the airport system arguably better in London, the music scene far better in New York, the play/theater scene a toss-up, etc. upon etc. Anyway, across these various dinemsions, I do think America's pearl is just that - it is the alpha of all alpha's in the world.

London will never lose its relevance. Colonialism alone will assure that, as it is the guiding light for so many nations that spent centuries in squalor under English rule. It's location relative to Africa also will make it the go-to destination for a Continent (similarly USA / NYC is for South America, though a far less populated one). For all the years I've done my Top Cities ranking, I've made it international, and similarly rejected including New York City on my list of favorite USA / Canada cities - namely because I live in its metro area, I work in it wholesale. I've been there probably 1,000+ times by now. But I know it enough to know where it struggles and where it shines. New York City is the world's center now. Maybe 200 years that changes, but as long as English is the primary language of the World*, it will remain New York City.

**Sidebar: I've long held that the reason English is the world's most prominent langauge, be it the world's most commons secondary language (i.e. the langauge most people would learn after their native tongue), and it being the language of comptuers, the langauge of media, the language of signage in airports, etc., is because of America being the prominent country in the world. Granted, America speaks it because of the UK (as does Australia, Canada, others), but the reason China teaches students English, the reason so many others do, is because it is the language of the USA**

2023 NFL Playoffs: Divisional Round Picks

No time for lengthy explanations:

Sat, 4:30 - ESPN

(A4) Houston Texans (10-7)  @  (A1) Baltimore Ravens (13-4)  (BAL -9.5)

The Pick: Texans 17  Ravens 30  (BAL -9.5)

Sat, 8:15 - FOX

(N7) Green Bay Packers (9-8)  @  (N1) San Francisco 49ers (12-5)  (SF -9.5)

The Pick: Packers 23  49ers 29  (GB +9.5)

Sun, 3:00 - NBC

(N4) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-8)  @  (N3) Detroit Lions (12-5)  (DET -6.5)

The Pick: Buccaneers 24  Lions 27  (TB +6.5)

Sun, 6:35 - CBS

(A3) Kansas City Chiefs (11-6)  @  (A2) Buffalo Bills (11-6)  (BUF -2.5)

The Pick: Chiefs 20  Bills 24  (BUF -2.5)

Re-Post: Nostalgia Diaries, Pt. 19: 2005 - 2008 Divisional Round & Region Band

Ahead of Divisional Weekend, I'm in an intreresting conundrum in that I might miss one of the games. Actually, probably better put that I might miss the tail end of the final game - with a flight to London on Sunday taking off at 10pm, more or less when Chiefs @ Bills should end. The last time I unintentionally missed part of Divisional Round weekend, was back in 2005-2008, when region band took over that weekend annoyingly three straight years.

Now, there are a few exceptions that I'm overlooking. First, in 2010 (so 2011 January), I was on the way back from India, but had my Dad DVR the games so I could watch them effectively live when I got home. In 2012, I rejected watching the Sunday games, too desolate after the Manning loss against the Ravens. In 2013, I intentionally skipped the Chargers @ Broncos game - too nervous to watching Manning (yeah, I was in a weird place....). I've intentionally missed various Brady/Belichick thrashings over the years (and one Brady loss, in 2021 to the Rams). But this is a first, where I want to watch all four games and I'm deathly scared the Chiefs @ Bills game will be close at the gun and me 35,000 feet above the Atlantic when it ends. It got me reminiscing about the last time this was a concern... so here we go....

******************************************************************************

Divisional Weekend is the best weekend in the sports calendar. It's not even a question for the NFL, but even if you open it up to all sports, probably only the first weekend of March Madness comes close. Four great games, eight great teams. Some of the all time moments in the sport's history have come on that weekend.

However, divisional weekend also matched up directly with the New Jersey Region Band - a prestigious tryout-only band that was the apple of so many musicianed eyes back in my high school days. Of course, I was in no position to say to my parents 'hey, I'm not going to try out for region band, to shine in something you've poured a decent amount of money into, because I want to watch football'. So I tried out. I made it (I was rather good at the old tuba). And I learned the early ills of DVR, and trying to hide an increasingly mobile world.

Music was a big part of my high school experience. I started with the trumpet in 5th grade, playing that through 6th grade. I was decent, but not great. I decided then to switch to tuba, an instrument no one in my grade played - because then it wouldn't matter if I was good or bad, I would automatically be the best because I was the only.

I ended up being quite good at the tuba, and parlaying my expertise to playing it in our school's full Orchestra ('band' instruments joined in Orchestra starting in High School) which itself led to both a series of amazing experiences (Orchestra trip to Vienna) and a love of Orchestral music that remains through to today.

Anyway, back to region band. We used to try out in November or so, and if picked you would be part of a long-weekend practice and concert. It was all-day practices Friday and Saturday, and then a performance on Sunday, always overlapping with the best damn weekend in football. The hours practicing were excruciating mainly because it was slightly boring band music. I guess it is the life of a musician, but that life wasn't for me, especially when football was on instead.

I still remember racing home after each Saturday practice, trying to catch whichever divisional game was on. During this period, we got a Comcast box that had DVR, so it made life easier to not miss the games, but then it also brought with it a now-endless challenge of trying to both watch games way after they happen and avoid any type of stimulus that could potentially give me information on who won.

It wasn't always easy, and sometimes just outright failed. The worst moment was probably in 2007, when after our band's concert I came home, turned the TV on, but it was left on NFLNetwork, that was already talking about the Colts harrowing 24-28 loss to the Chargers - the game where Philip Rivers would tear his ACL and Billy Volek would lead a comeback. Now, in a way maybe it was a blessing in disguise, as it allowed me to avoid watching three hours only to have my heart-broken, but I wasn't ready for that drive-by.

The year earlier, it worked perfectly when it had a lot of stakes, with me being able to watch the entire Colts vs. Ravens game on DVR when I returned home, enjoying every minute of that ridiculous chess-match. That said, I missed to many of the Sunday games. I missed most of the Colts loss to the Steelers, reaching home just in time to watch the fumble by Bettis and that ridiculously painful ending (still my 2nd worst loss as a sports fan - #1 being the Tuck Rule).

Overtime, I've gotten much better at avoiding seeing what happens. Be it memorizing the buttons that need to be pressed to open a recording prior to putting the TV on, or putting your phone on Airplane Mode to avoid texts. There's been some times I've really stretched the limits, like avoiding scores when taking flights and only watching games days later (2010 Divisional Round, when I returned from India), or avoiding watching the 2013 AFC Championship Game by watching The Godfather, Pt. 2 instead.

It all starts with those damn weekends in regional band. It's somewhat surprising those years coincided with my highest love - if not outright obsession - with football, which really wasn't a thing week-in and week-out until high school. Region Band still forced me to miss watching a bunch of games live, but it was the natural end result of being good at the tuba. And given what that led to in terms of the Orchestra side, a few all-day practices, and a few tape-delayed games isn't too much of a price to pay.

2023 NFL Playoffs: Wild Card Round Review

Player(s) of the Week: Jordan Love (QB, GB) & CJ Stroud (QB, HOU)

It's hilarious how close their stats are that they ended up both with a 157.2 passer rating, basically each one incompletion away from a perfect 158.3 (Love had that before he was inserted back in). What's more crazy is how each got there so easily, blending hitting wide open guys (because their coaches did an amazing job scheming) and hitting some absolute dimes of the highest order of difficulty. Seriously, throws into tight windows, throwing guys open, hitting them perfectly in stride. All of it was just so commanding. Yes, the defenses gave them all the openings (more on that in a second), but these two guys cemented their place among the game's best young stars.

Runner-Up: Lavonte David (LB, TB) & Vita Vea (DT, TB)

I could give this to many players on the Bucs defense, but let me give it to of the longer tenured guys, the guys that made the Super Bowl winning team churn, and came back to life here. David has been doing it for years that he's probably working up a reasonable HOF Case by now, and he was so spry, tackling perfectly, running through gaps, and generally ruin any plans the Eagles had at running the ball. Of course, if David didn't, than Vita Vea did as well. The giant man was every bit as big and brilliant as he was at his peak. The offense gets the headlines, and because the Eagles offense has been in a mess for weeks it's easy to overlook the Bucs defense holding them to 42 yards rushing and basically making them fully one dimensional from the first drive. That's a way to make a lasting statement.

Goat of the Week: All the Cowboys

I wanted to like this Dallas team. I predicted preseason for them to make the Super Bowl. They dominated so many (admittedly bad) teams throughout the season. But the signs were there. Granted, I don't think anyone would've predicted an embarrassment of the highest order but Jesus that is what we got to a tee. Not even sure which side of the ball I want to place more blame on, the high performing defense that looked like it had never played a Lafleur defense before, or the offense that was so explosive needing to grind every yard against a generally bad offense. All of it was just disastrous for what almost certainly will end the Mike McCarthy era - an era I always thought was being too harshly criticized, but alas in the end all of those other people were absolutely right. 

Runner-Up: Jim Schwartz

For the Cowboys, everything went wrong. For the Browns - while Flacco and his pick-sixes certainly didn't help, it was the defense that was so surprisingly awful in that game. Seriously, what the hell was that by Schwartz. I get that he never wants to really alter his scheme, but he seemed to have zero answers when his superior talent had a surprisingly quiet game. Garrett was locked up. The secondary was mostly useless. The secondary pass rushers were quiet. I feel bad I guess singularly putting this on Schwartz, but so much of that defense is based on the attitude of him and his coordinatorisms. That was just all so absent.

Surprise of the Week: Chiefs OL

The Chiefs win was so boringly dominant from teh get-go it was hard to really pinpoint any one area to focus on - but it did jump out to me over time how quiet Sieler and Wilkins were on the Dolphins front. They are nominally the strength of that defense (with Chubb and Phillips out) and were quiet. It's because the Chiefs much maligned OL came to play in style. The middle guys of Humphrey, Thuney and Trey Smith were all brilliant. Both in opening up lanes for Pacheco and keeping Mahomes relatively clean. The receivers still messed up, but in reality the biggest difference between the 2022 Chiefs and 2023 Chiefs in terms of output is their dropoff of the OL. This was a great sign, my only caveat being the Dolphins more or less decided not to show up.

Runner-Up: Lions Red Zone Defense

The offense went 3-3 on TDs in the Red Zone. The Rams offense went 0-3. That's the game right there. The Lions defense was the more surprising of the two easily - this is a below average red zone defense all year that got all up in its business in this one. The Rams run game did nothing in the red zone. They got pressure on Stafford at crucial times. Their much maligned secondary got hands on balls, contested fades and made life tough. It was a great performance by that unit where even one of those field goals becoming TDs could have swung that game fully.

Disappointment of the Week: Mike McDaniel's Creativity

I don't want to kick him too much. That team was so injured it was always going to be uphill. But Jesus I've never seen such a fold down by a dynamic coaching style than that one. Just not challenging deep at all. So many third downs where msot routes were well behind the yard to gain. Just a fallow, flaccid performance by an offense that lit the world on fire. I genuinely like Mike McDaniel and wish him long success as a coach, so I'm truly hoping that this wassn't a season long culmination of people figuring his stuff out. I still think the future is bright, but that was just a disaster of a game playcalling wise as much as execution.

Runner-Up: Eagles Offensive Adjustments

The only reason this isn't a full on disappointment is I think we all saw this coming for a while, but it was still startling to see the Eagles have no adjustments, no plan, no well... just... anything. No answers for the blitz, no sensible hot routes, no in breakers, no anything of all the things that so many other teams have started doing. It was all just pathetic, and showcased nothing of the ingenuity of the team from last year. I guess it is just may come down to Steichen and Gannon secretly being geniuses and the brain drain being too tough to overcome.

Team Performance of the Week: Packers Skill Position Guys

It wasn't all Jordan Love on that one, or even Lafleur. It was a team wide domination and every skill position player got in on the fun, from Romeo Doubs to Wicks to the two great young TEs and of course to the brilliance that was Aaron Jones. The Packers skill position players, Jones aside, are all super young and really untested. They grew along with Love all season long, and we saw it all in full degree in that one. Just an incredible performance from first drive to last by the Packers receivers and running backs. 500 yards of offense against a supposedly great defense. Pure domination.

Runner-Up: Bills OL

Allen was great, Cook was great, but the OL was even better for the Bills. Grading space for Cook to run through time and time again. Did well to keep Allen clean basically all night as well. Yes, the Steelers were missing Watt which was a problem, but Heyward, Highsmith and others got nothing further as well. Ahead of what is going to be a far trickier challenge in the Chiefs front, this was a really encouraging sign.

Team Laydown of the Week: Eagles Tackling

We can blame Matt Patricia for many things, and I think we all should blame Matt Patricia for many things. The defense got worse after he took over - for reasons that still haven't really been adequately explained (around why exactly we needed a DC change to begin with). But you can't blame Patricia for the ridiculous amount of missed tackling, bad angles and just general sense of "we don't want to be here." Even in the second half, when the DL showed some life with the three sacks and kept the Eagles somewhat in the game, the linebackers and secondary were just awful. The worst part is the countless times they tackled Bucs guys forwards, giving them an extra 1-3 yards consistently. Pathetic performance.

Runner-Up: Rams Secondary

I feel a bit bad since they're definitely undermanned and were very outgunned against the Lions receivers, but man were the Rams secondary players just useless. Bad in man coverage, bad in zone, bad on tackling especially in run support. The Lions offense had everything going early on. Even in the second half when the Rams were slowed down, it was the pass rush rediscovering a bit of life and getting on Goff a little bit more than anything the secondary did. Brutal performance by what is the clear weakness of the 2023 Rams.

Storyline of the Week that will be Beaten Into the Ground: Chiefs @ Bills, Pt. 3

Yes, we get it. These two teams played an instant classic two years ago. These two teams played in the AFC Title Game the year before that. They've played in teh regular season three straight seasons, with the Bills winning each of those. But this game is so different than those others. First off, it is in Buffalo, rather than Kansas City. Secondly this Chiefs team is so different than the ones from 2020 and 2021. This is an offense getting buy on one guy's signature brilliance, but more than anything the Chiefs are a defense first team. It really will come down who wins that Spags vs. Allen/Brady matchup. Forget the Allen and Mahomes stuff.

Runner-Up: The rise of the Texans & Packers

I get it, both of the young QBs guys are on epic heaters. Stroud had one of the more impressive rookie seasons ever. Love is having a 11-game run that evokes Rodgers. They also are on teams that lost a bunch of suspect games. Stroud was great against teh Colts in Week 18, but they were a terrible drop away from potentially losing their playoff spot to a Gardner Minshew led team. The Packers were 9-8, including barely beating Carolina. The teams aren't that great yet. The QBs are. The playcallers are excellent, but more than likely that was just two amazing games, and not some re-set of the entire NFL axis. Of course, what I love is both play their conference's #1 seed, giving me a chance to look really right, or just stupid, in five days time.

Storyline that Should be Beaten Into the Ground: Packers @ 49ers Redux?

In teh Aaron Rodgers era, despite the 49ers famously passing on him in 2005, the 49ers owned the Packers, beating them in the playoffs in 2012, 2013, 2019 and 2021 - and a slew of other times in the regular season. If anything is going to cement that this is a new era of Packers football under Jordan Love, delinking itself from Aaron Rodgers, it is making this game even competitive. And the Packers have some of the pieces to do it. Namely, they have an offense with a bunch of movement, with an OL playing well, and a run game that can potentially do to the 49ers a bit of what the Ravens did. Let's not talk about the other side of the ball, but Rodgers rarely got to 20+ against the 49ers (garbage time aside), and here they should do at least that.

Runner-Up: Detroit, Sweet Detroit

What a perfect rebuild. 3-14 in year 1. 8-9 in year 2, including a hot end to the season, including knocking the Packers out of the playoffs in Green Bay. And then 12-5 in year 3, with home playoff games. This team jsut did it all right. And then after they get screwed out of the #2 seed on the eligible receiver nonsense, they get the Divisional Round game at home, getting the benefit of the first #7 over #2. And not only that they get what looks to be on paper the easier matchup. The Lions earned this. Jared Goff earned it. Dan Campbell, a coach so many mocked early on, earned this. They have a genuinely good team with a great unit (offense). They have great fans that didn't see a home playoff game for 32 years. It's all different now. It's all special now. Soak it up for seven more days, Detroit.

2023 NFL Playoffs: Some Random Thoughts

Before the season started, I talked about how this was going to me my favorite season following the NFL in forever, mainly because a certain Thomas Brady was no longer around. He kept his word by not unretiring, and I kept my word by enjoying this season more than most. The boogeyman was gone, and no real enemy took his place. I loved the season following a bunch of different storylines. Yes, I have a soft spot in my heart for the Bills, but even their weird 6-6 start didn't dampen things. 

In the end, I am so ready for these playoffs as well. I'm going to eschew my normal picks and instead just give some random thoughts about what excites me, interests me, grabs me, about each game as I gear up for what promises to be my favorite season in memory.

Sat, 4:35 - (A5) Browns (11-6)  @  (A4) Texans (10-7)

= I just love that the Texans are back in the 4:30 Saturday slot, just like it is supposed to be. The Texans have made the playoffs in their history in 2011, 2012, 2015, 2016, 2018, 2019 and now 2023. Seven times, and seven times they've played the first playoff game of the run, the great 4:30 playoff spot. Even this time when this game does have some interesting juice, be it Stroud, or the Flacco renaissance, the others are all just better...

= CJ Stroud is even better than I expected him to be. I was so hoping the Colts would get him, falling in love with Stroud watching him nearly beat Georgia in the playoff last year. Alas, he went to a division rival of all places. Let's see what becomes of Anthony Richardson, but no surprise for me. Him against this Browns defense is a match made in heaven.

= While the Flacco story has been great, I think we're all overlooking the fact that he's still thrown ~2 picks a game, and there is a very good chance at some point in this playoffs he turns in a disastrous performance. Could easily be this week. I hope not just because I do want to see a potential Browns @ Ravens game for all the various storylines (Flacco, of course, at the top of the list), but I do think there is a chance this weekend just goes quite badly against a pass rush that should be healthy.

The Pick: Browns 17  Texans 23

Sat, 8:15 - (A6) Dolphins (11-6)  @  (A3) Chiefs (11-6)

= I find it really weird the amount of Tweets I've seen this week of people, seemingly seriously, suggesting the NFL should move the game away from Arrowhead because it is going to be -4 degrees and around -30 wind chill. I get that -30 wind chill is definitely "dangerously cold," but NFL games have been played in the dangerous cold for years and no one died. One of my favorite games in memory had very similar temparatures, the famed 2007 NFC Title Game in Lambeau - and the cold is absolutely part of the reason it is so well remembered.

= It is really strange to see this game as a Wild Card matchup given how great these two teams were early on, but here we are. I just wish the Dolphins were healthier. Even despite my soft spot for the Bills, watching the Dolphins at their best at the start of the year, with Tua humming, that offense so dynamic was great. The Dolphins are the rare team that had the league's best offense at one point in the season, the league's probably 2nd best defense at another (for like a week or two) but overall nothing close to either at the end of the season.

= I'm so excited to see what crazy stuff Spags comes up with this playoffs. They truly need him to go off on one of his great runs this season. That offense is not recoverable this season, but the Chiefs have a Top-5 defense, relatively healthy and playing great over the second half of the season. So curious to see what he dials up for that OL and to stop Hill.

The Pick: Dolphins 20  Chiefs 27

Sun, 1:00 - (A7) Steelers (10-7)  @  (A2) Bills (11-6)

= Sean McDermott needs an apology from the general public. They scorched him after the Dorsey firing, which was coupled from that weird hit piece that probably rightly outed him as just a weird guy, but also made him out to be some sort of monsters. It's pretty clear despite him being blunt at times, the team loves the guy - and he is on a defensive coaching heater throughout this entire run, resembling his work with the 2013 or 2015 Panthers.

= I don't think the Steelers have much of a chance but the spectre of a ton of snow definitely has me concerned. The one Bills weakness in reality at this point is their rush defense adn we just have to look back at last year in the divisional round to see how snow could hurt the Bills.

= That all said, many teams in the past were great for multiple years, losing awful playoff games, only to finally win with their most middling team. Think the 2006 Colts, or the 2012 Ravens, or the 2020 Dodgers. It happens a whole lot. The Bills this year could maybe be the greatest case. Of course, they also have very much the ability to turn it over four times and lose 13-16.

The Pick: Steelers 13  Bills 24

Sun, 4:35 - (N7) Packers (9-8)  @  (N2) Cowboys (12-5)

= I love the symmetry of the playoff matchups, with the the schedule having the 5-4, 6-3, 7-2 matchups on the AFC followed up with the 7-2, 6-3, 5-4 matchups on the NFC side - a beautiful little seeding palindrome. Nothing more to say really. Especially since I;m a bit surprised this is the afternoon game, with the Rams @ Lions being the nightcap.

= I've talkeda bout the fact that the revenge game for McCarthy has been a bit understated. In terms of the matchup though, McCarthy offense, which is fairly predictable at times, is actually perfect to beat the weaknesses of the Packers defense. You can kill them over the middle of the field and by calling simple slats and in breakers and the like. Well guess what? McCarthy knows little else. 

= The Jordan Love era is so exciting to watch bloom. Yes, I'm sure for people that hate the Packers, it is maddening to see them go from Favre to Rodgers and now see Love already play this well. Still super unlikely that he gets anywhere close to those levels, but Love's season this year is oddly similar to Rodgers in 2009 (his first time taking the Packers to the playoffs). That's the real worry for the NFC, that come this time next year, the Packers fix their defense and this team is primed for a decade of dominance - again.

The Pick: Packers 24  Cowboys 30

Sun, 8:15 - (N6) Rams (10-7)  @  (N3) Lions (12-5)

= It's so cool that the Lions are seen as a big enough story (plus all teh Stafford/Goff stuff) that NBC would choose this to be the SNF game on Wild Card Weekend. This is just an incredible matchup. All offense. All fireworks. Both defenses aren't that great. Goff to St. Brown & Williams vs. Stafford to Kupp & Nakua. Just perfect.

= An underrated story to me is that this is the first playoff game at Ford Field. The stadium opened in 2002. I can't imagine another stadium in NFL history took so long to get its first playoff game. I remember when Reliant Stadium in Houston hosted its first in 2011 - that was 10 years into its life and it seemed like forever. This is over a decade longer, of waiting, of myriad awful seasons, of brown paper bags and the like. But it's here, and with an offense first, dynamic team. Just perfect.

= People seem to be overlooking the Rams finished 7-1. Teams rarely make the playoffs after 3-6 starts. We see that stuff a lot when teams start 0-3 or 1-4, and this is later into the season to be three games under. To do that and end this good, especially with the one loss being in OT in Baltimore - tehre is a good chance teh Rams might be the second best team in teh Conference right now.

The Pick: Rams 30  Lions 24 

Mon, 8:15 - (N5) Eagles (11-6)  @  (N4) Buccaneers (9-8)

= I find it just absurd that I'm reading stories that Nick Sirriani might be coaching for his job. Granted, there have been crazier things, but this team went 25-5 over a 30 game stretch from the start of last season through the 10-1 start this year. Yes, things have gone to shit since, but you don't just fire a coach after one bad stretch.

= That said, Jesus Christ is this defense indescribably awful since they switched playcallers to Matt Patricia. Ever since that late game TD drive allowed to Seattle, they've been arguably the worst defense in the NFL. Far be it for me to make your panic "break glass in case of emergency" move switching to the guy who is almost famous for how bad his defenses have been.

= The Bucs honestly shoudl be favorites. The Eagles are reeling and somewhat injured. The Bucs are fairly healthy, and can take advantage of that paper-thin secondary of the Eagles fully well enough. The main reason I want to will that into truth is clear: it would be amazing for this crazy season, the one post-Brady, the one that I've loved more than any since probably 2013, to feature Baker Mayfield leading the Bucs to (1) more regular season wins than Brady did last year, and (2) further in the playoffs. All hail the Baker.

The Pick: Eagles 20  Buccaneers 28

NFL 2023: Post Regular Season Power Rankings & The Rest

32.) Carolina Panthers  =  2-15  (236-416)

A horrific season from start to finish mercilessly ends. One of the more interesting random things is this Panthers team is the first super extreme record in the 17-game era. Until now no one had gone worse than 3-14 or better than 14-3, but here we are with a team that never took a snap with a lead in the 4th quarter. I'll be interested who they go after this offseason - many teams will probably line up for Belichick, but certainly Tepper, after getting deservedly clowned all season, may open his wallet unbelievable wide.

31.) Washington Commanders  =  4-13  (329-518)

Hey, here's another team that might go extreme on Belichick. More realistically though, their going to do some galaxy-brained move after bringing in Bob Meyers for some reason in the committee to help find a new coach. The roster tanked well so they have a lot in the cupboard to reload, and clear path to a new QB, so the future at least is somewhat bright.

30.) New England Patriots  =  4-13  (236-366)

I found it weird how confidently people were talking about that being the end of the Belichick era. Where there's smoke, there's fire, so I assume this is true. I also find it hilarious already one of the names that have bubbled up is Josh McDaniels. God, I hope the Patriots make that ridiculous decision. I said when Brady and Belichick split that I found myself taking the side of Belichick. Still true now as well. I hope Bill goes somewhere to coach Herbert and the Pats cast their lot with McNasty.

29.) Arizona Cardinals  =  4-13  (330-445)

They should keep Kyler. There was enough there, and Gannon has that team playing well. They're in positioned now to go draft Marvin Harrison Jr., give Kyler a real top receiver to work with, and things can look a lot different. Kyler may have his faults but they had the league's best run game once he came back. This team was just not talented enough to really make a run at it in 2023 by design. 

28.) New York Giants  =  6-11  (266-407)

I just don't know how they weasel out of the Daniel Jones conundrum. The play didn't work. It just didn't. They looked so much better whether it was Tyrod or DeVito in there. I also am confused about the Wink Martindale move. I guess it is mutual, or maybe pushed by Wink, but that defense was far from the issue here. In the end, unless Daboll can manufacture a league average offense like they were able to last year, this team has very limited upside.

27.) Los Angeles Chargers  =  5-12  (346-398)

I'm not ranking this on where I expect these teams to be next year. If I was I would have teh Chargers higher, as I'll assume there ire no long lasting effects with Herbert's recovery. Anyway, for this season, it was disaster - and outside of just Herbert it lay fully clear that the rest of the roster was nowhere near as complete or skilled as people kept saying. Full reset here - another team I can see opening up the wallet for Belichick, but more than that they probably need a reliable GM to pick better players than Telesco did for years.

26.) Atlanta Falcons  =  7-10  (321-373)

Man this offense could be so fun if they get someone with his head less up his ass next year than Arthur Smith was. What w waste that entire Smith era was. Clearly also they need someone better than Ridder at QB as well. The name that intrigued me is hearing some NFL twitter folks throw out Justin Fields if the Bears were to decide to go with Caleb Williams. Sign me up for that with a coach who knows how to scheme to the best of his players' talent.

25.) New York Jets  =  7-10  (258-355)

So we're just going to do the Aaron Rodgers thing next year? I think I said it a couple weeks back, but I really hope the Jets draft a QB in the first two rounds. Other than reinforcing the OL they don't ahve many weaknesses assuming Rodgers returns as a capable QB. Invest in the future. I like that Saleh is coming back because we can say "why didn't get go get Name X" but realisstically their season was over four plays in.

24.) Tennessee Titans  =  6-11  (305-367)

No surprise at all that the Titans beat the Jags - just the type of game they would win. If this is for Vrabel (more in the sense he's a hot name as a potential Belichick replacement) than he went out in style, as did Derrick Henry. I'll always remember the Vrabel era as giving us the weirdest #1 seed of the 32-team era (in my mind at least). For the future, hope Levis comes back healthy and see what you have in 2023. The Hopkins experiment worked better than I thought it would, but it would also be prudent for them to ivnest further in weapons.

23.) Denver Broncos  =  8-9  (357-413)

I'm not sure what Payton's plan is at QB. Clearly they're done with Russell Wilson. Stidham did nothing as a replacement and is also not a long term answer. I guess they coudl go the draft route but don't have a top pick, and I can't imagine the offense Payton wants to run is something too easy for a rookie to pick up. Seems to be a bit of treading water season next year as well.

22.) Chicago Bears  =  7-10  (360-379)

Even if we assume this is it for Justin Fields, man does the future for the Bears look a whole lot brighter than it did a few weeks back. Eberflus's defense took off. DJ Moore showed up, as did the running game even outside Hurts. At this point I want them to go with Caleb Williams and really take off. Not sure any team (outside of whoever nabs Belichick) has a more interesting offseason to come.

21.) Minnesota Vikings  =  7-10  (344-362)

The rumblings on Cousins taking a home town discount to stay is growing louder, and I'm fully for it. There's no reason to close that door if Cousins is open to it. The team showed throughout this season they are good enough to compete. Flores defense even played above its level and could do with some further reinforcements. Cousins injury derailed what probably would've been another wild card team (or at least 9-8 and let tiebreakers fall where they lie). I trust in KOC as well.

20.) Las Vegas Raiders  =  8-9  (332-331)

God help us all if Antonio Pierce is passed over for the full time job. Hard to see what more he could've done, from resurrecting that locker room after the excised the tumor that was McDaniels, to having the defense improve basically overight, to keeping them in most games with Aidan O'Connell having to take most of teh snaps. Not sure what options they have at QB, but even then they should trust Pierce with a multi year contract to see what he can do wtih his players.

19.) Seattle Seahawks  =  9-8  (364-402)

Seems like they'll keep Carroll. They need to invest in the interior DL. The run defense has been too bad for too long now. I still like this offense enough with Geno back there - this year was very much proving that last year was not a fluke. Can they compete for a Super Bowl with Geno? Maybe not, but not sure what better alternatives they have.

18.) Indianapolis Colts  =  9-8  (396-415)

The whole controversy about that last play was so overhyped to me. Taylor was clearly a bit hampered, and the play-call schemed Goodson wide open. just have to make that catch. Anyway, the future is still bright because the weakness of this team was Minshew's erraticness. I hope they invest a ton in the DL because you can't just assume thsi group will be as productive again. Anyway, the thing they absolutely got right is Steichen is a great coach.

17.) Jacksonville Jaguars  =  9-8  (377-371)

What a brutal collapse but in reality this team is basically the same as last year's team - that did this in reverse with a miracle finish to steal the division. I hope they don't overreact, but look to improve where this team is the weakest - the back-seven and the OL. That all said, Lawrence has to improve. I guess you can chalk up some of the late season play to various knicks and bruises (and of course the concussion that took him out two games), but he didn't really seem to get any better this season, which is certainly alarming.

16.) New Orleans Saints  =  9-8  (402-327)

It's so weird this team will end up with a +75 point differential, but miss the playoffs and it is hard to feel really bad for them. Looking back they were one of the ultimate paper tigers losing to basically any good team they played. Were they better than teh Bucs? Probably, but them's the breaks and again I don't think anyone feels like we're missing out on a good team here. The incoming cap crunch will be hilarious to see them navigate.

15.) Cincinnati Bengals  =  9-8  (366-384)

In the end, they were never seriously going to challenge after the Burrow injury, but what their end of season play under Browning showed is that this team is more talented top to bottom on the roster than you would think. Similar to say the Colts making it to 9-8 with their backup, this shows a good roster with a good coaching staff, missing the head of the operation. The Higgins contract will be interesting to watch, but at the end of the day, getting Burrow back means a whole lot more than losing Higgins.

Some Random Ramblings on Wild Card Weekend:

= Are they just going to call it Super Wild Card Weekend for eternity? Like I got it the first year in 2021 as a way to signify we have two more teams, and two more games - three games Saturday and three games Sunday. But it's year three now. Pretty soon many won't even remember the ancient 8-team wild card round set-up. At some point it should become just "Wild Card Weekend" again, no?

= So weird to see the schedule be the three AFC games and then the three NFC games. With the jumbling of who broadcasts what, I guess no real complains for CBS and FOX since they just get the one game each. I remember a few times in the old era we would get both Saturday games be AFC and then Sunday was NFC. But anyway, just found that curious.

= Think the Mike McCarthy revenge game is getting totally lost in the glow of the Jared Goff revenge game, and the Joe Flacco / Cleveland revenge game. Maybe it should be, but McCarthy was certainly, most would say fairly, scapegoated for how things ended in Green Bay. He found greener pastures, and has this team generally rolling. I do like also the nuance of the Packers recent history ruining the Cowboys life in 2014 and 2016 that Dallas will try to also take revenge for.

= Dolphins @ Chiefs may be my favorite game. Strength v. Strengh with the Dolphins offense against the Chiefs defense (and yes, I know how weird it is to type that...). Spags the God going up against Mike McDaniel is a great one. On the other side, if tehre was ever a team that the Chiefs could get right against it is a Dolphins defense missing a ton of people (though maybe Zavien Howard gets back). Just a great one, along with the backdrop of what should be like 10degree weather in Arrowhead. Good stuff.

= More to come later this week

NFL 2023: Week 18 Power Rankings & The Rest

32.) Carolina Panthers  =  2-14  (236-407)

Forgot the abhorrent play of the team, the real thing we have to talk about is the behavior of David Tepper. It pleases me to no end that this guy just assumed he would come in and blow away the NFL with his innate brilliance of his mind. This shit isn't wall street buddy. This is a real meritocracy, not a weird quasi-oligopoly that teh finance world lives in. I doubt the NFL does anything too serious but it is so great to see him so upset.

31.) Washington Commanders  =  4-12  (319-480)

30.) New York Giants  =  5-11  (239-397)

29.) New England Patriots  =  4-12  (233-349)

So these three teams are all going to face interesting QB questions. For teh Commanders, it is a fresh start (will be interested to see if they trade up). For the Giants and Patriots it is can they get out of the guys they've put some investment into. With the Giants, they need to cut bait with Daniel Jones. Whether it was DeVito or Taylor, the Giants just looked better in every way with anyone who wasn't Daniel Jones. Guys like Slayton need better QB play, teh deserve it. For the Patriots, Zappe clearly isn't the guy either. They need a fresh start. Will be tough for them to get the #2 pick at this point, so they will be praying that the Bears pick someone at #1 and not trade that pick.

28.) Tennessee Titans  =  5-11  (277-347)

27.) Arizona Cardinals  =  4-12  (310-434)

Grouping these two as the talent deficient teams that have at least given it a really good go this season. The Titans need to ride with Will Levis next year. I liked some brief glimpses of him this season. They need some better weapons for him, but the line is solid. For the Cardinals, this late season push probably keeps them with Kyler for next year. Saw Robert Mays compare this late season improvement as similar to say the Lions last year. I think that's wildly generous, but the Cardinals are a reasonable team with a solid coaching staff behind them.

26.) Los Angeles Chargers  =  5-11  (334-385)
25.) New York Jets  =  6-10  (251-352)
24.) Cincinnati Bengals  =  8-8  (335-370)

All three have been befelled by QB injuries. Backups are never really sustainable, and the rest of the teams are good enough to steal or spoil but not to truly contend. The Bengals were teh closest but we've seen regression from Browning these last two games. For teh Chargers, it's all about who they hire to replace Staley and, maybe more importantly, Telesco. The roster has been overrated/aging for a while now. The Jets are keeping Salah and Douglas; well fine. I think that is defensible. What I don't think would be defensible is that if they didn't take a QB in the first or second round. The "let's jsut wait for Rodgers" to be back solution can work but even then for at most two years. They just can't have no plan for the post-Rodgers year.

23.) Atlanta Falcons  =  7-9  (304-325)

22.) Las Vegas Raiders  =  7-9  (305-317)
21.) Denver Broncos  =  8-8  (343-386)
20.) Minnesota Vikings  =  7-9  (324-332)

These four are in the parade of 7-9 / 8-8 / 9-7 teams. Technically the Falcons can be a playoff team, but all four are almost certainly not in the playoffs, and they shouldn't be. If I had to rank my optimism for them as we look ahead to 2024, I would put them in this order, or maybe swap the Raiders and Broncos. For those two, it will really depend on what happens at their QB spot. I doubt O'Connell is the long term play in LV, and Wilson is very openly not for Denver. The Falcons just seem to have a ceiling on this team as long as Smith is the coach, and Ridder projects to get a lot of snaps. For the Vikings, I think at this point they endeavor to bring Kirk back, figuring they can get him at a lower pricepoint. He/s a cult hero in Minnesota at this point, and with the way the defense has shaped up, inject even a lesser version of Kirk into that team and they would've been in the playoffs.

19.) Pittsburgh Steelers  =  9-7  (287-314)
18.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers  =  8-8  (339-325)

17.) Seattle Seahawks  =  8-8  (343-382)

I hope none of these three make the playoffs, though they all have fairly clear paths in. The Bucs get in with a win. That's it. The Steelers get it with a win and a Bills loss to Miami (eminently possible). And the Seahawks need the Packers to lose to the Bears (again, possible with this improved Chicago team helping out). For the Seahawks, their lack of rush defense is what will kill them at the end of the day. They've eked out close wins the last two weeks but it all came home to roost in this one. For the Steelers, Rudolph has done well to get George Pickens into the offense more, and its revolutionized that unit. The defense has slipped a bit in recent weeks which is what them drops me. For the Bucs, it admittedly might be an overreaction on my part to just how fallow that performance was against the Saints. Granted, they would've entered that game basically knowing that the game was meaningless, since a Week 18 win against the league's worst team is all they needed to wrap up teh division. So maybe it was just going through the motions. But still, just a disastrous performance for a team that should be better.

16.) Chicago Bears  =  7-9  (351-362)

I knew the Bears were playing better, but I don't think I appreciated just how much better. Not only are they a 7-9 team, but if not for throwing away that game to Cleveland, they would be 8-8 and playing for a win-and-you're-in game against Green Bay. If anything, this is the team that is reminiscent of the 2022 Lions. Rough start of the season followed by a super strong second half. A defense that was awful to start getting quietly better. Even teh season can end the same way, as just like Detroit last year, the Bears go into Week 18 with nothing to play for, other than a chance to knock the Packers out of the playoffs.

15.) Indianapolis Colts  =  9-7  (377-392)
14.) Houston Texans  =  9-7  (354-334)
13.) Green Bay Packers  =  8-8  (336-341)
12.) New Orleans Saints  =  8-8  (354-310)

These are my four teams that I think are wild card fodder more or less. Granted, three of the four if they make the playoffs could do so as a division winner. Anyway, the Colts defense is so up and down, but does so well against middling offenses. The consistency of the pass rush is a concern, but at its best its a top-5 unit. The Texans pass rush similarly can be so great when Will Anderson is in there. I still don't know of the long term gain of that pick to combine basically Stroud and Anderson, but Anderson has been as much a stud as Stroud. For the Packers, hard to really tell if that defense is getting any better, or they had a 5th round rookie just fed to them to feast on. Love though has become super dependable. For the Saints, I get that it is hard to trust them and David Carr has alternated a good game with 2-3 middling ones throughout the season, but a +44 point differential, with a Top-10 defense is a team taht should be taken more seriously than it is. If I'm the Eagles (the likely #5 seed), I would definitely want Tampa to win its game and avoid needing to go to the Superdome.

11.) Jacksonville Jaguars  =  9-7  (357-343)
10.) Los Angeles Rams  =  9-7  (383-357)

Hard to know how much of that Jags defensive performance was their strong play, or the Panthers being that bad. Still, Allen and Co., are a devastating pass rush at their best. The offense was bleh, but hopefully Lawrence is back for the finale. I don't know if any team taht could conceivably win back-to-back diviions titles would ever be as uninspiring as the 2022-23 Jaguars, but who cares given what Jacksonville had precedently. For the Rams, I had them as a playoff team before the season started. They were better than their 3-6 start, so I'm happy of this run of them catching fire . This 6-1 stretch includes some fairly impressive wins (blowing out the Browns, beating the Saints convincingly), and their only loss was taking the Ravens to OT. Good team, beyond even Stafford, Kupp, Nucua and Donald.

9.) Cleveland Browns  =  11-5  (382-331)

8.) Philadelphia Eagles  =  11-5  (423-401)

7.) Kansas City Chiefs  =  10-6  (358-282)

The Browns are fascinating. Flacco's insane performance probably has 1-2 more weeks, but their defense is good enough to make them a tough out. Not as tough outs right now? Our two Super Bowl teams. The Eagles defensive struggles are so maddening. I still have no idea what the idea was behind giving playcalling duties to Matt Patricia. Just a weird move as it wasn't like the defense was notably bad under Desai. The Chiefs defense is excellent, but their offense is jsut not good enough. The most surprising part is the strange dropoff of their OL, which was a strength last year when they had to deal with similar skill position player issues. It's not like the receivers are worse this year, it is just that the line notably is.

6.) Buffalo Bills  =  10-6  (430-297)
5.) Miami Dolphins  =  11-5  (482-370)

What a way to end the season next week, with winner getting the AFC East. I think the Dolphins are better but their injuries on defense have come close to matching what the Bills have had to deal with. The Bills need their OL to step up after two rough games following their domination of Dallas. For the Dolphins, same in a way but my larger concern is if Waddle can get back. The Bills are great at not giving up huge pass plays so they'll need Waddle's athleticism, with my view that the Bills can put the cap on Hill.

4.) Detroit Lions  =  11-5  (431-375)

3.) Dallas Cowboys  =  11-5  (471-305)

Won't talk about the ending here, more just to say I really enjoyed the rest of that game and a potential rematch in teh divisional round. Just great matchups everyhwere. The Lions defensive secondary improvement over the year has been fun to watch, and is needed against whoever they would go up against Divisional Roudn onwards. Their OL did a great job against Dallas's pass rushers most of the time. On the Dallas side, Prescott to Cooks is improving every week and getting those secondary pass catchers involved will be huge. Defense finally showed a bit more calmness and down to down strength than in recent weeks when they were getting blown off the ball.

2.) San Francisco 49ers  =  12-4  (471-277)
1.) Baltimore Ravens  =  13-3  (473-263)

These are teh best two teams in the NFL by some distance. I hope we get a rematch in teh Super Bowl. I just know the NFL rarely gives us such gifts.

Projecting the Playoffs

AFC

1.) Baltimore Ravens  =  13-4

2.) Buffalo Bills  =  11-6
3.) Kansas City Chiefs  =  11-6

4.) Jacksonville Jaguars  =  10-7

5.) Cleveland Browns  =  11-6

6.) Miami Dolphins  =  11-6

7.) Houston Texans  =  10-7

NFC

1.) San Francisco 49ers  =  12-5
2.) Dallas Cowboys  =  12-5
3.) Detroit Lions  =  12-5

4.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers  =  9-8

5.) Philadelphia Eagles  =  12-5

6.) Los Angeles Rams  =  10-7

7.) Green Bay Packers  =  9-8