Tier I - The QB Race Duo
31.) Arizona Cardinals = 1-6 (127-182)
As I'll always note until / if they leave this lowest tier, the Panthers don't have their first round pick. Anyway, their psycho finance bro owner David Tepper probably would just keep riding with Bryce anyway. The Panthers are not very good. The Cardinals aren't either, but have played reasonably well week to week. There's a long trend of teams that no one thinks are good entering the season, being frisky during some early season games that they still end up losing, and then starting to fall into being as bad as we all thought. I think there's a chance that happens to this Cardinals team - with the good news being Jonathan Gannon seems like a good head coach.
Tier II - The "Yeah, They're Just Not Good" Trio
30.) New York Giants = 2-5 (85-174)
29.) Chicago Bears = 2-5 (158-188)
28.) Denver Broncos = 2-5 (148-217)
28.) Denver Broncos = 2-5 (148-217)
So seven weeks into the season, we have just two teams with less than two losses, but also jsut two teams with less than two wins. There's a lot of muk between 2-5 and 5-2, but these three have set themselves apart - ironically though all three won last week. The Giants still have a pathetic point differential, and we are seemingly a couple weeks away from a really weird situation when they have to decide between Taylor and Jones. The Bears of course may face the same, somehow, with Fields and Bagent. If anything, Bagent has just remarkably better pocket presence relative to Fields. For the Broncos, no QB controversy of course, but there's also no real signs of life with teh Wilson offense. The defense has been OK now for three straight games but you still have to wonder when that crater falls off again as they continue to cut useful players.
Tier III - The "Muddled Mess of Pretenders" Quinto
27.) Washington Commanders = 3-4 (140-190)
26.) Tennessee Titans = 2-4 (104-117)
25.) Las Vegas Raiders = 3-4 (112-161)
25.) Las Vegas Raiders = 3-4 (112-161)
24.) New England Patriots = 2-5 (101-177)
23.) Green Bay Packers = 2-4 (130-132)
Yeah, this is what I meant by "the muk". The Commanders basically can't get the offense and defense to play well the same week. Aside from a blowout loss to the Bills, they've generally kept games close, but alternate losing 28-35 type games, and 7-14 type games. For the Titans, if Tannehill is hurt this is going to fall off the rails. For the Raiders, they still haven't scored 20 points - Adams will likely just lose it at some point, and of course Year 2 McDaniels is a ticking time bomb. Nice win for the Patriots, and that's three straight "not awful" games by Mac Jones, but the level of talent on that team is just not there to win enough to realistically get back into it. For the Packers, that was a dreadful loss - not sure why I honestly have them ranked ahead of the other four here. The offense looks so slow and short with Love. The defense has talent but can't carry them yet.
Tier IV - The "Semi Interesting Spoilers" Trio
22.) Indianapolis Colts = 3-4 (178-191
21.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers = 3-3 (103-104)
20.) New Orleans Saints = 3-4 (133-127)
20.) New Orleans Saints = 3-4 (133-127)
None of these teams are very good, but all seem incapable of losing boring games. The Colts offense is the only one in the league to score 20+ points every week. They lit up the Browns down to down but Minshew is just not good enough and is way too high-risk to keep the floor high enough. Honestly, similarly Mayfield with the Bucs, which of course have a great defense being let down by their offense for a second straight year. For the Saints, Carr needs to push the field more. Of course, that's basically been his issue his whole career, but its more pointed now.
Tier V - The "LA Blues" Duo
19.) Los Angeles Chargers = 2-4 (144-155)
18.) Los Angeles Rams = 3-4 (155-141)
It's time to just honestly re-assess this whole LA thing. The NFL picked the Rams and Chargers to move there, two teams that didn't ahve the greatest fanbases in their own cities. Now every home game in LA is basically a road game - something that gets heightened when it was Dallas last Monday or the Steelers this week. The Chargers are just not playing to their level, specifically the OL and the DL - the DL is basically way more name recognition than anything else. For the Rams, taht was a tough loss. They are playing with great guile and scheme over talent - specifically on defense, and it just doesn't last up enough over 60 minutes.
Tier VI - The "Wild Card Fodder, in theory" Quadro
17.) New York Jets = 3-3 (113-119)
16.) Pittsburgh Steelers = 4-2 (103-127)
15.) Houston Texans = 3-3 (135-113)
14.) Atlanta Falcons = 4-3 (115-133)
15.) Houston Texans = 3-3 (135-113)
14.) Atlanta Falcons = 4-3 (115-133)
The Jets are hanging in there, with Wilson playing slightly better and the defense still playing well. I just worry that Wilson won't be able to keep up even his level of play so far. The Steelers are somehow 4-2 with a -24 point differential, but I actually think of any in this group they have the most upward momentum. The offense had to play better than its woeful drive to drive results over the first four games, and we're seeing that now - specifically the Pockets to Pickett connection. The Falcons I guess are more than Wild Card fodder, given someone has to win the NFC South. What's impressed me about them is the consistent above-average play on defense. For the Texans, more than even CJ Stroud's great performance to date, is the state of that defense, which Demeco Ryans has turned around so quickly. They are a really well coached unit and some of the recent draft picks that were mostly seen as non-successes due to injury more than anything else, have really come aroudn.
Tier VII - The "The Worst is Behind Us" Duo
13.) Minnesota Vikings = 3-4 (151-152)
12.) Cincinnati Bengals = 3-3 (100-127)
12.) Cincinnati Bengals = 3-3 (100-127)
The Vikings started 1-4, the Bengals 1-3, both with pretty sullen losses and a whole lot of questions. The Vikings and Bengals have both come back to life. Now, teh Bengals are technically still last in the division, but Burrow is looking healthier and the defense playing better. For the Vikings - at some poitn I guess Jefferson will return, but even then Mattison's recent strong play is a great sign. Cousins is playing at a truly great level. I don't know if either will end up in the playoffs, particularly the Vikings with four losses already, but what were seemingly lost, disastrous seasons have really come back to life.
Tier VIII - The "High Variance Good Teams" Quadro
11.) Cleveland Browns = 4-2 (134-115)
10.) Seattle Seahawks = 4-2 (144-118)
9.) Dallas Cowboys = 4-2 (154-100)
8.) Detroit Lions = 5-2 (174-151)
10.) Seattle Seahawks = 4-2 (144-118)
9.) Dallas Cowboys = 4-2 (154-100)
8.) Detroit Lions = 5-2 (174-151)
As we get four teams that at their best have looked incredible, and at their worst have looked useless. The Browns have to hope that their defensive porousness (Myles Garrett brilliance aside) is a random one week blip rather than the start of a sustained lower level of play than their initial incredible level. The Seahawks offense has now struggled two straight weeks, but their defense has been able to make up for that donwswing quite well - but against non-Cardinals type teams it may not work as much. For the Cowboys, not sure if the bye came at the best time after a big win following the disaster that was their loss to the 49ers. But they have such a high ceiling given just the top flight talent and strong OL play this year. Finally for the Lions, yeah that was awful. That was rough. But it may just be one week against one of the best teams playing at their very best. I'll trust the 20 prior games that show the Lions to be a very good team. They need to protect Goff better, have to.
Tier IX - The "NFC East Race" Duo
7.) Miami Dolphins = 5-2 (240-187)
6.) Buffalo Bills = 4-3 (198-118)
Speaking of high variance teams. The Dolphins have seen their offense limited and slowed against the only two good teams they've played. But Hill is still just so unplayable, and the DL showed some signs of life against one of the league's better OLs in Philly. For the Bills - what to say? The past two years, most of their losses have been razor thin and flukey. But these last two, against both the Jags in London and now this game against the Pats, they just got outplayed. Now, there's enough talent that both were close losses. The worry is the defense just won't have the same floor performance with the injury losses this year that will be just tough to overcome. The offensive ceiling is still super high. They still remain one of the more efficient offense in aggregate - but it just seems bad.
Tier X - The "Best 2-Loss Teams" Trio
5.) Jacksonville Jaguars = 5-2 (173-146)
4.) San Francisco 49ers = 5-2 (201-109)
3.) Baltimore Ravens = 5-2 (171-97)
It may look weird having the Jags here, but they've quietly won four straight games without too much bluster, have Trevor Lawrence getting back to his performance level from later half of last year, and the defense has really settled in. Still too many fumbles and the like but that screams to me as more randomness than anything lasting. For the 49ers, two straight losses is a bit alarming, but both on the road, both close games, and a spate of turnovers that likely won't recur. I still believe, basically. For the Ravens, the team that should be 7-0. The fact their losses are to the Colts and Steelers is quite disturbing, but man if the receivers hold onto the ball, they are incredible. The defense is so good at generating pressure. The younger guys that needed to step up have very much done so.
Tier XI - The "Are Super Bowl Rematches Fun?"
2.) Philadelphia Eagles = 6-1 (186-141)
1.) Kansas City Chiefs = 6-1 (178-105)
1.) Kansas City Chiefs = 6-1 (178-105)
So, in all likelihood we don;t get a rematch, but it is funny that quietly these are the last 1-loss teams left, and both won 31-17 in impressive fashion. For teh Eagles, that was their most complete performacne in all phases - from Hurts being his most controlled this year, to the DL dominating a great offense all day. The secondary also played well (aside from random Hill craziness). For the Chiefs, Mahomes had his best game, but really that defense has shown over six games that they are just excellent. They're healthy, the young guys are all playing well, and Spags is on his bag 100%. Just a dominant unit - this is what the NFL always feared: Mahomes with a great defense. Injuries and the vagaries of defensive performance can always set things astride as we go, but right now they're the best team in the league, or at the very least the most dependable week to week.
Looking Ahead to Next Week's Games
16.) Chicago Bears (2-5) @ Los Angeles Chargers (2-4) (SNF - NBC)
15.) Houston Texans (3-3) @ Carolina Panthers (0-6) (1:00 - FOX)
14.) Baltimore Ravens (5-2) @ Arizona Cardinals (1-6) (4:25 - CBS)
13.) New York Jets (3-3) @ New York Giants (2-5) (1:00 - CBS)
12.) Philadelphia Eagles (6-1) @ Washington Commanders (3-4) (1:00 - FOX)
11.) Kansas City Chiefs (6-1) @ Denver Broncos (2-5) (4:25 - CBS)
10.) Atlanta Falcons (4-3) @ Tennessee Titans (2-4) (1:00 - CBS)
12.) Philadelphia Eagles (6-1) @ Washington Commanders (3-4) (1:00 - FOX)
11.) Kansas City Chiefs (6-1) @ Denver Broncos (2-5) (4:25 - CBS)
10.) Atlanta Falcons (4-3) @ Tennessee Titans (2-4) (1:00 - CBS)
9.) New Orleans Saints (3-4) @ Indianapolis Colts (3-4) (1:00 - FOX)
8.) Las Vegas Raiders (2-5) @ Detroit Lions (5-2) (MNF - ESPN)
7.) Minnesota Vikings (3-4) @ Green Bay Packers (2-4) (1:00 - FOX)
6.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-3) @ Buffalo Bills (4-2) (TNF - Prime)
5.) New England Patriots (2-5) @ Miami Dolphins (5-2) (1:00 - CBS)
4.) Los Angeles Rams (3-4) @ Dallas Cowboys (4-2) (1:00 - FOX)
3.) Jacksonville Jaguars (5-2) @ Pittsburgh Steelers (4-2) (1:00 - CBS)
3.) Jacksonville Jaguars (5-2) @ Pittsburgh Steelers (4-2) (1:00 - CBS)
2.) Cleveland Browns (4-2) @ Seattle Seahawks (4-2) (4:05 - FOX)
1.) Cincinnati Bengals (3-3) @ San Francisco 49ers (5-2) (4:25 - CBS)
