Tier I - The Caleb Williams Race Quadro
31.) Chicago Bears = 1-5 (128-176)
30.) Arizona Cardinals = 1-5 (117-162)
29.) New York Giants = 1-5 (71-167)
29.) New York Giants = 1-5 (71-167)
It's weird putting the Panthers in the Caleb Williams picture because they don't have their first round pick. it is an interesting thought exercise whether had they gone 3-14 or something and ended up with the top pick if they cut bait on Bryce Young in favor of the guy everyone thinks is a generational prospect. For the other three, they are all in the race for if not Williams than Drake Maye. The Bears I have to think would make that switch, same with the Cardinals where they probably do give up on Kyler if the alternative is what seems like a more sure thing. The Giants are the most hilariously sad one because of the contract they just gave Daniel Jones. That the team seemed to have far more life with Tyrod Taylor is not a good sign at all for Danny Dimes.
Tier II - The Life Comes At You Fast Duo
28.) Denver Broncos = 1-5 (129-200)
27.) New England Patriots = 1-5 (72-152)
I thought the Broncos would be decent with Sean Payton being able to revive something from Russell Wilson. I thought the Patriots would be the worst team in the AFC East, but at least hover around .500. Right now both teams are dreadful, and it is only that remaining reputational slant that has me not putting them in that bottom category - that said both would be wise to tank if they could well and truly. Wilson is toast. Mac Jones may be better than he's showing but you have to think that New England environment is just not conducive to his success.
Tier III - The Not Very Good Quadro
26.) Tennessee Titans = 2-4 (104-117)
25.) Minnesota Vikings = 2-4 (129-135)
24.) Las Vegas Raiders = 3-3 (100-131)
23.) Indianapolis Colts = 3-3 (140-152)
23.) Indianapolis Colts = 3-3 (140-152)
The Titans and Vikings are both two games under .500, but arguably better than many of the myriad 3-3 teams that are higher in seed. But I'm dropping the Titans due to the uncertainty around Ryan Tannehill (though I get a bit interested to see Will Levis), and for the Vikings with the seeming chance that Justin Jefferson just shuts it down for the season to rest up for a massive free agent contract. For the Raiders, their wins are super unimpressive, and the offenses ceiling seems to be 20 points. The defense has probably done better than anyone would have expected but that offensive performance is unsustainable long term. For the Colts, Mishew showed what he is in that game. The one thing he can't really do is turn it over and he was dreadful in that regard. I also do wonder what the idea was in not running Jonathan Taylor more in that last game.
Tier IV - The Wild Card Aspirations Quadro
22.) Atlanta Falcons = 3-3 (99-120)
21.) Washington Commanders = 3-3 (133-176)
20.) Green Bay Packers = 2-3 (113-113)
19.) Pittsburgh Steelers = 3-2 (79-110)
This ridiculous amount of three-win (or in the Packers case 2-3) teams is really hard to sift through. I'm sure there always is this muddled mess six weeks in, and over time you would think the records become a bit more polarized. The Falcons are a scheme heavy team whose scheme seems not to favor its best players. I doubt Ridder can play worse, but you watch that game and start to understand why they just run it all the time. For the Commanders, it was nice seeing the defense finally get back to a decent level. Howell still takes way too many sacks. For the Packers, they have a soft schedule coming out of the bye so it will be interested to see if they can take advantage of that. For the Steelers, for the second straight year they have a dreadful scoring differential and good record. While I can't imagine that totally lasts, I do believe in their upside more so than the other three teams, mainly since that defense has started to play better in recent weeks.
Tier V - The Defense Can Maybe Save Us Duo
18.) New York Jets = 3-3 (113-119)
17.) Houston Texans = 3-3 (135-113)
The Jets being 3-3 against that schedule is a miracle. Less so when you consider Josh Allen truly just handed them a game, and Jalen Hurts did much teh same, but still had they gone 3-3 against teh same schedule with Aaron Rodgers at QB, I wouldn't have been shocked. Quietly the offense has been passable in recent weeks, with even Wilson showing a lot more poise. He just has to stay in the pocket more. For the Texans, Stroud has been amazing, but the real story is Demeco Ryans turning that defense around this quickly. Many great defensive coaches often take a year to get their types of players and what-not (see Saleh's first Jets season compared to his second), but Ryans took some amount of talent available and has upskilled them immediately.
Tier VI - The Treading Water Trio
16.) Los Angeles Chargers = 2-3 (127-124)
15.) New Orleans Saints = 3-3 (109-96)
14.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers = 3-2 (90-88)
14.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers = 3-2 (90-88)
The Chargers should be better than this, but at some point some of the issues have to be pointed at Herbert. Maybe he's not healthy, but he missed way, way too many throws against Dallas and still checks down way too much with a new offense he's directing. For the Saints, their upside is still probably higher than any team in that division but the offense just looks lost at times. I find it weird saying they have the best upside in the NFC South and then having the Bucs ranked ahead of them, but to me the Bucs represent the single best unit in the division with their defense which remains excellent.
Tier VII - The Lively Wild Card Lifers Quadro
13.) Cincinnati Bengals = 3-3 (100-127)
12.) Los Angeles Rams = 3-3 (138-117)
11.) Seattle Seahawks = 3-2 (124-108)
10.) Cleveland Browns = 3-2 (95-77)
12.) Los Angeles Rams = 3-3 (138-117)
11.) Seattle Seahawks = 3-2 (124-108)
10.) Cleveland Browns = 3-2 (95-77)
The Bengals are back to .500, and things may continue to trend upwards, but all the excitement about Burrow's strong game in Arizona had to be cooled a bit. That offense still has so little dynamism to it. Good think though the defense has maintained being a fringe top-10 unit again. For the Rams, Stafford just looks so solid, so healthy. I thought they had this type upside if he was healthy, and with Kupp back and healthy it really is a nice little offense. For the Seahawks, that was a frustrating loss, but losing by 4 to a good team on the road isn't all that shameful. Geno remains on a now year-and-a-half heater. For the Browns, that defense is just tremendous - they just abused the 49ers lineman the entire game and the coverage unit is strong as well. I honestly don't even care if Watson doesn't improve - given he's a monster, I'm perfectly fine with him just continuing to suck - but even that probably doesn't tank this team.
Tier VIII - The I Want To Believe More Trio
9.) Jacksonville Jaguars = 4-2 (142-122)
8.) Dallas Cowboys = 4-2 (154-100)
7.) Baltimore Ravens = 4-2 (133-91)
The Jags are now quietly 4-2, with a defense that has stayed dynamic, and Lawrence has looked better each week. They have to limit the dumb turnovers they still too often have, but Lawrence has done a good job getting Zay Jones and Christian Kirk more and more involved. The Cowboys needed that win, though still it is (not surprising) ridiculous with how many penalties and stupid mistakes they make. Dak is still excellent and it was good to see signs of life with Brandin Cooks after a slow start for him. The defense has stabilized a bit after losing Diggs, with Daron Bland really taking a step up in his game. The Ravens should be 5-1 - in reality they should be 6-0. Much like the Bills that I'll get to, no team loses more games they absolutely should win. The biggest culprit seems to be a shockingly poor track record in the red zone.
Tier IX - The Just Plain Good Teams Trio
6.) Philadelphia Eagles = 5-1 (155-124)
5.) Detroit Lions = 5-1 (168-113)
4.) Miami Dolphins = 5-1 (223-156)
The Eagles probably needed that loss - they clearly were just lackadaisically running through this season at 5-0, without playing anything near their best. They needed that wake up call. I'm also a bit surprised how quiet Devonta Smith has been this season. In the end though, this is still a great team that nearly won that game despite the four turnovers. For the Lions, more than even the offense, it has been shocking how good the defense has been so far. Great in the secondary and even the secondary pass rushers beyond Hutchinson have started to make more of an impact. The Dolphins showed a lot to me not flinching for a second when falling down 14-0. Now, a better team than Carolina probably doesn't collapse that easily, but still aside from one bad half against Buffalo (and parts of that New England game) this offense has been exceptional, even with some injuries.
Tier X - The Enjoyable Enigma Uno
3.) Buffalo Bills = 4-2 (173-89)
That was a scary game but the Bills pulled it out. Was comforted to see the defense play that well. Yes, they've not played well for two straight games now, but I still believe in them. Every underlying number would have them be one of the better teams in the league. The run game has picked up the last few games (Jacksonville game excepted). Gabe Davis is starting to play better. Sue me, I still believe even if they're starting to be way too scattershot, reminding me of the 2021 team that went 11-6 despite being on the metrics the best team in the NFL.
Tier XI - The Most Trustworthy Teams Duo
2.) Kansas City Chiefs = 5-1 (147-88)
1.) San Francisco 49ers = 5-1 (184-87)
The 49ers won't surprise. Of course I'm worried about the CMC and Deebo injuries but this is me pinning hope that it isn't too serious with either. That defense remains tremendous, and in the end I think Purdy is a very good QB, and one bad game against the league's best defense doesn't change that. For the Chiefs, quietly they have the league's longest winning streak and are very much in that Ravens camp of "they easily should be 6-0" with their loss being the 1-pt opener against Detroit where if not for ten different drops they would have won. They just don't lose games they aren't supposed to, which will set them up for their normal 13-4 type season, a clear path to the #1 seed and off we go.
Looking Ahead to Next Week's Games
Byes: Cincinnati Bengals (3-3), Dallas Cowboys (4-2), Tennessee Titans (2-4), New York Jets (3-3), Carolina Panthers (0-6), Houston Texans (3-3)
13.) Las Vegas Raiders (3-3) @ Chicago Bears (1-5) (1:00 - FOX)
12.) Washington Commanders (3-3) @ New York Giants (1-5) (1:00 - CBS)
11.) Green Bay Packers (2-3) @ Denver Broncos (1-5) (4:25 - CBS)
10.) Arizona Cardinals (1-5) @ Seattle Seahawks (3-2) (4:05 - FOX)
10.) Arizona Cardinals (1-5) @ Seattle Seahawks (3-2) (4:05 - FOX)
I call it "Mega 1-5 Sunday" as we get four games featuring 1-5 teams, and none against particularly high-caliber competition that can give anything too interesting on the other side. This is actually one of the better slates to date, but there is a good amount of slop with these four games. For the Bears, putting it last given the uncertainty around Fields. For the Giants, similar with their QB uncertainty. For the Broncos and Cardinals, at least they generally keep games interesting.
9.) Buffalo Bills (4-2) @ New England Patriots (1-5) (1:00 - CBS)
I call it "Can we start digging the grave?" Sunday, as the Bills have a chance to really bury the Patriots, at home no less. They're already basically done for this season, but we've seen a 1-5 team make the playoffs as recently as 2015 (Cheifs, who went 10-0 to close the season...), but never a 1-6 team. The Bills also get the chance against the team that dominated them for so long. Yes, I'm sure some of that catharsis was already released with that memorable 47-17 playoff win, but I'm sure the Buffalo fans are happy to release some more.
8.) Pittsburgh Steelers (3-2) @ Los Angeles Rams (3-3) (4:05 - FOX)
7.) Cleveland Browns (3-2) @ Indianapolis Colts (3-3) (1:00 - CBS)
6.) Atlanta Falcons (3-3) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-2) (1:00 - FOX)
I call it "Can we please get some separation?" Sunday, as we get three games with the muddled mess of 2-3 / 3-3 / 3-2 teams. The Rams get another chance to stake their claim as the comeback team of the year. The Browns, probably without Watson again, get to further flex their defensive muscles with a unit worth the price of admission by itself. For the Bucs and Falcons, sue me but I have a weird infatuation with this ludicrous division that is somehow seemingly worse than last year when an 8-9 Bucs team won it.
5.) San Francisco 49ers (5-1) @ Minnesota Vikings (2-4) (MNF - ESPN)
4.) Jacksonville Jaguars (4-2) @ New Orleans Saints (3-3) (TNF - Prime)
I call it "Live Home Dogs..." Monday and Thursday, as we get two of the better teams in the league going on the road on primetime to play teams that have good enough upsides to absolutely give a scare. Maybe I would think differently if the 49ers were more healthy, but if McCaffrey is out (which seems likely as I write this on Tuesday), that game is far more fascinating. For the Saints, they have the type of defense that can make a (potentially gimpy) Lawrence struggle as well. As always, figure one of these games are close, and the other has the better team just dominating.
3.) Los Angeles Chargers (2-3) @ Kansas City Chiefs (5-1) (4:25 - CBS)
I call it "Can the Chiefs basically clinch again" Sunday, as the Chiefs get a chance to basically put the division away (barring Mahomes getting hurt or something) by starting out 6-1, 3.5 games up on what we would think their biggest competitor to be. That said, these two have generally played fun, thrilling games in recent years, filled with Kelce OT TDs and pick-sixes and the like. The Chiefs have generally won them, but if the Chargers want to get on the right track, winning this one would be an amazing start.
2.) Detroit Lions (5-1) @ Baltimore Ravens (4-2) (1:00 - FOX)
I call it "NFC vs. AFC, Pt. 1" as we get a game between one of the best NFC teams and one of the best AFC teams. There's been a weird dynamic between the two. Everyone coming into the season was figuring the AFC to be far better, but in early weeks the NFC won most of the inter-conference matchups. Last week flipped that completely, with the Eagles and 49ers both losing to middling AFC teams. Here we get a good AFC team. This should just be a fun game between two of the more entertaining teams in the league, though a role reversal with teh Ravens being maddening at times, and the Lions being stably very good every week.
1.) Miami Dolphins (5-1) @ Philadelphia Eagles (5-1) (SNF - NBC)
I call it "This is what SNF is made for" Sunday, as we just get a beauty at the end of the night. The Dolphins are the most fun team to watch so far, but their schedule has been hilariously soft - with the exception of the Bills game where they got hammered. Here they start a far tougher stretch with teh Eagles in Philadelphia, off of a loss, with what I'm sure will be an intense crowd (that may be on a high with teh Phillies potentially either already in or clinching a World Series spot that day...). Just a great matchup. The Dolphins offense vs the Philly DL. Seeing if the Hurts offense can get back on track. A night game in one of the best stadium atmospheres at night. Now, SNF has a habit of having these seemingly good games turn into a 38-14 win for the home team, but let's dream shall we.
