Ranking the 0-3 Teams (inc. Houston)
2.) Houston Texans (0-2-1 = 49-59)
The Texans are winless through three games. Everyone would have predicted that. What is less predictable is that (a) they've at least drawn one of the games, a game they were leading throughout, and (b) even in the other two they've looked reasonably good. This isn't a good team, but Lovie Smith has them playing hard and competitive. I do think they'll end up like last year's Lions where they play a string of fairly close games at the start, but then fizzle out as the losses pile up.
1.) Las Vegas Raiders (0-3 = 64-77)
Ranking the 1-2 Teams (inc. Indianapolis)
15.) New York Jets (1-2 = 52-81)
There are a staggering amount of 1-2 teams, and for the most part none of them are real surprises other than the three at the top of hte list. The Jets really should be 0-3 if not for a miracle win against the Browns. Their defense has still not really meaningfully improved despite a lot of investment. At some point we have to at least ask the question if Robert Saleh is a bit over his head as a head coach, especially as the defense has not gotten much better in year 2. Apparently Zach Wilson will be back next weekend which is a great development to get a best sense of where this team is.
14.) Seattle Seahawks (1-2 = 47-70)
Another team that by all accounts should be 0-3, they had no right to win that first game against the Broncos, needing an all time bad red zone and game management performance to get it done. The offense was fine this game, but Atlanta might have one of the worst defenses in the league. Geno is fine but he clearly has a defined ceiling that is below what ever level it needs to be for this team to win any more than five or six games.
13.) Washington Commanders (1-2 = 63-82)
I treat Washington similarly to how I treat the Jets. A team led by a defensive head coach whose defense hasn't played all that well, and only kept in games (this last one notwithstanding) because the offense has done better than expected. Granted, the Commanders have good personnel on offense around Wentz. The OL being a disaster wasn't great. As for the defense, when they get Chase Young back it should help, but Rivera so far has not been able to coach up this team nearly as well as he used to in Carolina.
12.) Pittsburgh Steelers (1-2 = 54-66)
This offense is just a mess, and without TJ Watt for the forseeable future the defense is not good enough to carry them. That Thursday performance was depressing, being easily outplayed by a Jacoby Brissett led team. It shows that the problems in Pittsburgh are beyond Mitch Trubisky (or Kenny Pickett). In the end, I do fear that this season might spell the end of the Mike Tomlin streak of getting to at least .500 every season.
11.) Arizona Cardinals (1-2 = 62-87)
Kyler hasn't been great, but this team is deteriorating around him. The defense played reasonably well, but this offense is a mess. The OL is bad. It is clear that they seriously overpaid for Hollywood Brown, and that skill position mix is just not good enough with Nuke Hopkins. Kyler really doesn't have a chance - and part of that is also Kliff Kingsbury just not being it as a head coach. It's always too early to say these things, but considering this is a continuation of a trend that started when they were 9-2 last year, I think this is a lost year for the Cardinals.
10.) New England Patriots (1-2 = 50-71)
I had really had a hard time ranking these next six teams. They're all a bit interchangeable, and what doesn't help is the ones that are statistically better through three weeks are all the ones that had worse priors heading into the year. The Patriots offense looked decent, and the Jones to Parker connection looks quite good. But then he gets hurt and is likely out a couple weeks. Hard to read too much from the defense as Jackson is just in a zone right now but it was a bit jarring that Belichick felt the need to blitz that much. If they can't get traditional pressure they might be in trouble.
9.) New Orleans Saints (1-2 = 51-68)
They should be better. They should be better than the Panthers or Falcons, but they just clearly have not been. Some of it is bad luck, some of it is Jameis being Jameis. The defense is still reasonably good, but that was a listless performance against the Panthers. One of the few bright spots I guess is that Chris Olave was a great draft pick, which they absolutely needed given they traded up for him giving up some of their already limited draft capital.
8.) Carolina Panthers (1-2 = 62-59)
There's few certainties around this team three weeks in. I think mainly the one is that the Panthers defense is reasonably good, and their using their top players like Jeremy Chinn really well. That's why they've been able to overcome a pretty average Mayfield start. His final stat lines are on the border of OK, generally because of him hitting a big play or two each game, but accuracy has not improved at all.
7.) Tennessee Titans (1-2 = 51-84)
For at least three quarters, it looked like the 2021 Titans were back. Henry looked good. Tannehill was playing in rhythm. The OL was playing well even without Lewan. The top guys on defense were showing out. And in the end, they needed to stop a 2pt conversion to beat a so far bad team in the Raiders. This is what the Titans are, and I'll give them never ending credit that they know it. They know the 1seed was a mirage. Injuries have only made it worse.
6.) Detroit Lions (1-2 = 95-93)
The Lions really should have won that game. Granted that would put them probably towards the back end of the 2-1 teams, but they outplayed the Vikings for long stretches of that game and then just had coverage disasters late. The Lions are a young team, a growing team. So far they've done about as well as you would want (again, excepting for the fact they should be 2-1). Goff has been ok, helped by an OL that is playing better than I expected. The Lions should hover around .500 - it all comes down to if they truly trsut in Goff, and if not when do they pull the trigger on a replacement.
5.) Atlanta Falcons (1-2 = 80-81)
The Falcons offense has been above average every game. It was a bit of garbage time in week 2 against the Rams to make that game closer than it was, but they blew it in Week 1 and controlled the matchup against the Seahawks defense from start to finish. The Falcons have a few things really going for them, from Kyle Pitts being just a monster, to Drake London showing really well so far. Marcus Mariota looks good in the offense. He still takes too many sacks, and I do wonder if they want to get a view of what Ritter looks like at some point, but the Falcons if anything are an exciting team.
4.) Indianapolis Colts (1-1-1 = 40-61)
The Colts loss to the Jaguars looks slightly better now (still not good) with what the Jags have been doing, and the defense finally showed decent life and shoudl get Barrett back fairly soon. The Colts are basically what we expect except for one huge issue to me: Matt Ryan needs to show he can still hit even intermediate throws. The arm looks fine, but be it an OL that he, understandably, doesn't trust in, or weapons that aren't ready yet. That has to get better for this not to be a late-career-Ben type offense.
3.) Los Angeles Chargers (1-2 = 58-84)
This ranking is built purely on priors. The Chargers shoudl be better. I do fear that maybe Herbert is just not going to be right all year (playing late into blowouts won't help) and if so maybe this is just a year for this team. The Chargers should be better. They have the talent, they have the QB (assuming health). They have time to make up ground but this has been a truly slow start.
2.) Cincinnati Bengals (1-2 = 64-55)
It's easy worry about the Bengals poor start. The offense wasn't clicking even when Burrow wasn't getting sacked. But lost in that was a defense that has continued its performance it showed in the playoffs. Yes it hasn't been the hardest set of offenses for them to face, but they've been in control of all of them. They should have won Week 1. Hopefully this was more than just playing the Jets and a real "get-right" type of game for a team that still has a lot of good components.
1.) San Francisco 49ers (1-2 = 47-37)
Man is this defense great. The DL is just a heavy rotation of all gamers. The secondary is playing better than it did last year. That side of the ball is so in sync. The offense is the opposite. Jimmy G became a punch-line due to the safety, but even outside of that he was below average - but also no one is open far too often. I don't know what it is exactly that is holding them back from at least giving Jimmy easier throws - let it be Jimmy that holds you back, not the offense as a whole. It may not matter in the end, given how damn good that defense is.
Ranking the 2-1 Teams
13.) Chicago Bears (2-1 = 52-57)
Probably not controversial. Shockingly with a game to come against the Giants they have a decent shot of moving to 3-1. Every year there is a team like this that is clearly not very good that gets off to a decent start, and generally just crashes back to earth - see the Panthers last year. The Bears do have a decent defense, but there is just no way they can continue to compete and win games throwing less than 20 times a game. They are trying to win running a 1970s offense. That has a maximum limit. The more worrying question is if they are forced to always run this type of offense because Fields will never get there, or is this just a stupid idea that curbs his development.
12.) Cleveland Browns (2-1 = 85-72)
The other team that is clearly not that good but there is I guess some path where they remain competitive highlighting the areas the Browns are really good. They have a good pass rush and a great secondary. They have a good OL and running game. Those things can lead a Jacoby Brissett team to stay around the margins of .500 until the guy who shall not be named comes back. I think there's a lot of people understandably annoyed that we are headed towards a path where Watson can come back and "save the day" for the 7th playoff team bound Browns.
11.) New York Giants (2-1 = 56-59)
The Giants are not a great team, and it is becoming more and more clear Daniel Jones is just not going to make any sort of leap. I have to imagine with a new regime in place this year, this is the last year of him being the starting QB. That said, man are they giving him no help. The OL was terrible against Dallas, particularly the RT. The receivers dropped crucial catches, including two on the drive when down 20-13 that could have extended it - one for a big gain. The defense remains decent but until this offense can finally get a lift up the Giants will be spinning their wheels.
10.) Dallas Cowboys (2-1 = 46-52)
The Cowboys have good enough pieces around Cooper Rush to stay competitive until Dak comes back. It helps when your opponent leaves Demarcus Lawrence on an island against an overmatched RT but he was a monster, and they're doing a great job of mixing how they use Parsons to keep offenses on their toes. Lamb has to get over his case of the dropsies - it was hilarious to see ESPN do a marketing push around him being the next in a line of '88s' to star for the Cowboys, and while he had some circus catches he also had some pretty crucial drops. They need Gallup back in a minute.
9.) Denver Broncos (2-1 = 43-36)
Yes, the offense is a trainwreck right now, and while a lot of the focus is being placed on Nathaniel Hackett, at some point Russ needs to play better as well. He was outright missing guys and looking very much like the guy that had rough periods these last few years. That said, the Broncos defense has been phenomenal so far - a major step up from their play last year. Their secondary was great for large stretches against hte 49ers and the pass rush is getting contributions from players who are not Nick Chubb. All positive signs for a team where you think the offense just has to get better.
8.) Minnesota Vikings (2-1 = 58-55)
I was all set mentally to pounce on the Vikings for being mentally absent and they pull off a nice little comeback to keep pace in the NFC North. Even with the win, I think the sheen has come off the Kevin O'Connell start. I'll give them this, Justin Jefferson was basically erased by Jeff Ukodah and they still found a way to score 28 points. It helps that while the Lions could erase Jefferson, they seemingly forgot Thielen exists on many plays. The Vikings defense is just average enough for a steady offense to get the 10 or so wns they need to at least get a wild card. It is not deep though so if any injuries hit they could be in trouble on that side.
7.) Los Angeles Rams (2-1 = 61-70)
If anything, that game was more a sign of a Super Bowl hangover than the first loss to Buffalo. They played quite well getting a 13-0 lead and then basically stopped trying. Stafford was forcing stuff to Kupp. The defense aside from Donald was going through the motions. There's enough top flight talent to make it work, and they still quite easily won the game, but they have to do better. That should have been a 24 point beatdown, not a 1-score game at the end. Stafford does look a lot better than what we saw in Week 1 so that is a good sign at least.
6.) Jacksonville Jaguars (2-1 = 84-38)
I'm close to fully buying in. On sheer performance, they probably should be no worse than #3 in this set of teams. I don't think many teams with two as clear beatdowns as they have this early in a season are ever revealed to be frauds. The defense is what really excites me. It's easy to focus on Trevor Lawrence cutting down mistakes and Christian Kirk making good on a contract so many mocked, but right now the defense is playing extremely fast, the coverage far better than you would expect. 84 points in three games is very good but not outstanding. 38 points allowed is outstanding. It helps to have coaches that actually know what they're doing. If anything this season may show we may have underrated just how truly terrible Urban Meyer was.
5.) Green Bay Packers (2-1 = 48-45)
Well, the defense is about as good as we thought it could be which is a major plus. The combo if Jaire Alexander and Rasual Douglas are excellent. If only they can remember to cover running backs leaking out in pass routes. But anyway, defense very good. Offense? I would love to see a breakdown of whether anything changed from what they were doing or Tampa did after the fumble on the goal line. Up to that point they were killing Tampa with quick plays and even running well. From the second that happened it went completely away. They should get guys back and get better - it's good to know Green Bay can win games 14-12 but they can't count on it.
4.) Kansas City Chiefs (2-1 = 88-65)
Well, that is a bit worrying. Granted, like we'll talk about in a few spots with Buffalo, the Chiefs probably win that game 9 times out of 10 if not for some freak things, such as the kicker issues costing them four points (7 if you count the fake field goal). Mahomes looked fine, but it is worrying that this is against a defensive scheme of Gus Bradley that he usually torches. The running game is a nonentity right now and you wonder if that ever gets fixed. The defense continues to play well - the Colts gained under 4 yards a play - so I still have good faith in KC in the long term.
3.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-1 = 51-27)
I don't know if we can just point to the guys that may come back without noting that the Bucs offense wasn't that great in the first few games either. They've been to the red zone three times period - granted they've scored TDs of more than 20 yards as well. This looks to be a slightly higher variance carbon copy of the 2019 Pats offense that got people thinking Brady was done. The defense has been incredible so far, but they get their toughest test this weekend against KC. Let's remember the 2019 Patriots also had a pretty incredible defense too.
2.) Baltimore Ravens (2-1 = 99-77)
Both of my top two 2-1 teams had their lone loss against Miami. In the one sense it's a good sign when your only loss is against an undefeated team - but also a sign that Miami pretty easily could be 1-2. Anyway, the Ravens offense has been incredible this year, and in this game they actually started running the ball quite well. The Ravens have also torched the blitz, which was their kryptonite in 2021. What they really need is more consistency from their defense. They've been good at forcing turnovers but have had way too many breakdowns in the secondary. This offense is good enough to win shoot-outs but there's enough talent, especially in the back-seven, that they shouldn't need to.
1.) Buffalo Bills (2-1 = 91-38)
Yes it is a bit worrying how bad the OL and run game was. Yes, the injuries have really hit the secondary hard. But the Bills went on the road in 100 degree weather, outgained Miami by 280, and would have won this game if any of like ten things happened. From the fake spike that cost them likely three points at the end of the first half, to the missed field goal, to the turnover on downs having 1st and Goal at the 2. Then there was them getting torched on a 3rd and 22 by Waddle (credit Miami there). The Bills were the better team. They lost. It happens. They just can't make it a trend, but sadly if you look at a lot of their losses in 2021, this is sustaining a trend.
Ranking the 3-0 Teams
2.) Miami Dolphins = (3-0 = 83-64)
I'm going to talk about this more when I talk about the Bills, but the Dolphins are very lucky to win that game. The offense still on its face looks good, but they have to sustain more drives, they have to do a better job staying on the field. Maybe that starts to happen more, and if so this team can be seriously dangerous. Tua looks good, Hill and Waddle are a great combo, but it isn't resulting in enough points aside from that increidble one quarter against the Ravens.
1.) Philadelphia Eagles = (3-0 = 86-50)
All offseason, smart people were speaking out about how good the Eagles are, and how good their roster is, and how if Jalen Hurts can take a step up this might be a team that can cruise to a top seed, and so far all of that is proving true. Their defensive line is playing like it did back in 2017 when they ran a pretty similar formula, with another 2nd year QB who took a huge step up, to a top seed and then ultimately a Super Bowl. The biggest benefit in the Eagles favor is an easy schedule, which they're taking advantage of fully so far.
Looking Ahead to Next Week's Games
16.) Arizona Cardinals (1-2) @ Carolina Panthers (1-2) (4:05 - FOX)
15.) New York Jets (1-2) @ Pittsburgh Steelers (1-2) (1:00 - CBS)
14.) Los Angeles Chargers (1-2) @ Houston Texans (0-2-1) (1:00 - CBS)
13.) Seattle Seahawks (1-2) @ Detroit Lions (1-2) (1:00 - FOX)
I call it the "I don't care" Sunday, as we get these games that I really just don't care about. I guess there is some intrigue if Zach Wilson plays for the Jets (or similarly if the Steelers just do what is so obvious and bench Trubisky). But really in a weekend with a lot of really good games on paper, there has to be a counterbalance.
12.) Washington Commanders (1-2) @ Dallas Cowboys (2-1) (1:00 - FOX)
11.) Cleveland Browns (2-1) @ Atlanta Falcons (1-2) (1:00 - CBS)
10.) Denver Broncos (2-1) @ Las Vegas Raiders (1-2) (4:25 - CBS)
I call it the "I care 1% more than the games above" Sunday, as again I find it hard to muster up much for these three either. Browns vs Falcons could be somewhat exciting, but featuring two likely to be meaningless teams in the grand scheme of things. The Broncos will be interesting to watch just to see if they can get their offense going against a team that just let Tennessee get its offense going for the first time.
9.) Tennessee Titans (1-2) @ Indianapolis Colts (1-1-1) (1:00 - FOX)
8.) Minnesota Vikings (2-1) @ New Orleans Saints (1-2) (9:30am - NFLN)
7.) New England Patriots (1-2) @ Green Bay Packers (2-1) (4:25 - CBS)
I call it "Just decent games" Sunday, as we get our first London game appearance, and a decent game for once (assuming good Jameis shows up). The Titans and Colts have a crucial game to see who can stay in reach of Jacksonville (wow, that was weird to write). For the Colts its a great opportunity to show that their offense can do more than gain four yards at a time. For the Patriots, they complete round 3 of "man these would've been such marquee matchups three years ago". Seriously, a run of @PIT, vsBAL, @GB - that would've all been primetime or 4:25pm slots, but now is just two 1pm games and this 4:25pm game that looks a lot worse than even I would've imagined.
6.) Chicago Bears (2-1) @ New York Giants (X-X) (1:00 - FOX)
I call it "Who wants to be the ultimate fraud" Sunday, as one team is coming out of this with a fraudulently good record. It would be ridiculous if this Bears team that can't (or rather, just doesn't try to) pass is 3-1, but equally so if the Giants win again.
5.) Los Angeles Rams (2-1) @ San Francisco 49ers (1-2) (MNF - ESPN)
I call it "Good enough on paper it may get me to watch the main broadcast" Monday, as for the first time I'm given a conundrum. I generally was pro-Buck/Aikman, but also am an unabashed Manningcast-head. This game is good enough, a rematch of the NFC Title Game (and separately a great Week 18 game) with two teams that always play each other seemingly well. The level of play from both may be somewhat below where it was last year, but both sides have some great incentives - the Rams to stuff SF at 1-3, and the 49ers to continue to show their defense is good enough to carry Jimmy G.
4.) Jacksonville Jaguars (2-1) @ Philadelphia Eagles (3-0) (1:00 - CBS)
I call it "Um, yeah, this is why the NFL is great" Sunday, as somehow what probably seemed like a sleepy 1pm kickoff game is now a game between the two hottest teams in the league, the Eagles and Jaguars coming off two straight butt-kickings each. For the Jags this is a great test of the OL and Lawrence's rebuilt confidence against a defense that just sacked Wentz nine times. For the Jags, also a chacne to prove the defense is real against one of the more dynamic offenses to date. Good stuff.
3.) Kansas City Chiefs (2-1) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-1) (SNF - NBC)
I call it "Thank You, NFL. Pt. 1" Sunday, as for the Chiefs - the challenge you get is avenge your Super Bowl loss in a fashion that shows your offense still has it without Tyreek against what has been to date the league's best defense. For the Bucs, it is how your offense can come back to life against a defense that has done a great job so far against top receivers. Both teams have a lot to gain with wins - neither with all that much to lose with losses. This feels like a great, classic SNF game. Let's just hope it is better than the last time these two played.
2.) Miami Dolphins (3-0) @ Cincinnati Bengals (1-2) (TNF - Amazon)
I call it "This is what Thursday's are made for" Thursday, as we get Miami right off their big win playing the defending AFC Champs (off of their own "get right" performance). It will be a really quick turnaround for Miami given how tough, draining that game was. For the Bengals, a good chance to show if that rebuilt line will continue to get better against a team that blitzes nearly as much as anyone. For the Bengals, a win here and they'll have steadied the ship just at hte right time.
1.) Buffalo Bills (2-1) @ Baltimore Ravens (2-1) (1:00 - CBS)
I call it "Thank You, NFL, Pt. 2" Sunday, as one of two teams that both easily could/should be 3-0 if not for collapses against Miami is going to 2-2. For the Bills, a 2-2 start could mean being two games behind in the division already (granted, if Miami loses Thursday, that pressure goes away). For the Ravens 2-2 may not mean that much as at worst they could be a game behind the Browns, but they want home playoff games, plural. This is a great matchup. It was when the season started, it is now. The Ravens match up really well to be honest, but if the Bills can pull this off, they would be 3-1, playing three road games and some miracles away from being 4-0. Good stuff here.
