NFL 2021: Week 17 Power Rankings & The Rest

Ranking the AFC Teams

Tier A-I - The "Scouting Colleges ASAP" Trio

16.) Jacksonville Jaguars  =  2-13  (217-396)

15.) New York Jets  =  4-11  (276-449)
14.) Houston Texans  =  4-11  (248-401)

Honestly, I don't even care to write about these teams - save for the Texans who have looked sneakily decent with Davis Mills this season. The Jags and Jets don't look anything close to decent with their rookie QBs. For the Jets, what's a bit more surprising, and worrying frankly, is how bad their defense has been this season with Saleh at the helm. I'll give him at least a couple more years, but it's definitely not a great sign for a defense-first coach to have such a bad defense.

Tier A-II - The "Pretend Contenders" Duo

13.) Pittsburgh Steelers  =  7-7-1  (301-371)
12.) Las Vegas Raiders  =  8-7  (316-387)

Somehow these two remain in clear wild card contention, if not being exactly favorites to get a spot or two. And despite me being a lapsed Raider fan even I don't want them, or their cousin in Pittsburgh with a similar -70 point differential. The Raiders have some theoretical higher upside but their plan is basically to slow the game to few possessions which they can control to somewhat mask up their terrible defense. Either way, I do hope neither of these teams make the playoffs and let better quality teams in.

Tier A-III - The "Wild Card Fodder" Duo

11.) Cleveland Browns  =  7-8  (314-329)

10.) Miami Dolphins  =  8-7  (305-315)

The Browns and Dolphins aren't bad - certainly I would favor these teams in the playoffs than Pittsburgh or Las Vegas, but still the fact they have negative point differentials this late into the seasons is a bit concerning. Not to jump too far ahead on the Browns, but their Mayfield decision they'll have to make this offseason is fascinating. It can go in many different ways. For the Dolphins, I do somewhat take back the jokes and criticisms I had of them earlier during their seven game losing streak, but their seven game win streak has come against some really soft teams and they're just now getting back to near net-0 on point differential.

Tier A-IV - The "AFC West Graveyard" Duo

9.) Denver Broncos  =  7-8  (298-260)

8.) Los Angeles Chargers  =  8-7  (408-411)

The Broncos were never really serious AFC West Contenders, even in their 3-0 start it seemed a bit fake, but I'm surprised to see the with the best points allowed and a +38 point differential. They'll have a tough time getting into the playoffs at this point, but I do think Fangio deserves another season. For the Chargers, injuries have really cost them, as it has nearly every season for the past decade. I do also think Herbert is getting too boxed in in their offense which is a problem longer term.

Tier A-V - The "Yeah, this is who we really are" Duo

7.) Baltimore Ravens  =  8-7  (355-356)
6.) New England Patriots  =  9-6  (388-260)

The Ravens are somehow still in the #7 spot and with two winnable-ish games left they could sneak into the playoffs. I do hope if that does happen that Lamar is back. The defense is a mess mostly due to an unbelievable spate of injuries, but at least with Lamar playing they have a shot. For the Patriots, it seems Mac Jones isn't  rookie Tom Brady after all. In all seriousness, they've hidden him largely all year (let's go back to the wind ame with three passes...) but in the playoffs that isn't a winning proposition, especially for a defense whose pass rush has seemed a lot less prominent the last few games.

Tier A-VI - The "Yeah! This is who we REALLY are!" Duo

5.) Cincinnati Bengals  =  9-6  (410-324)
4.) Tennessee Titans  =  10-5  (357-326)

The Bengals don't have the best resume when it comes to having them mostly beat bad teams, but what they very much do have is shown an ability to beat up on bad teams and hang with good ones - see their close loss to Green Bay. For the Titans, they were rolling having beaten the Chiefs and Rams easily before first Henry and then Jones and Brown got hurt - this is their chance to recover a bit, with having basically sewn up the division last week and having a chance to get Henry back potentially before the playoffs. They weren't 8-2 good, but they also weren't 1-3 bad.

Tier A-VII - The "Ok, please let one of these three make the Super Bowl" Trio

3.) Indianapolis Colts  =  9-6  (420-316)
2.) Buffalo Bills  =  9-6  (427-264)

1.) Kansas City Chiefs  =  11-4  (421-306)

It's weird putting two six-loss teams here, but the Colts have shown since their 1-4 start that they are indeed one of the best teams in teh AFC, blowing out Buffalo, beating New England, and even having their two most recent losses come in OT (Tennessee) and by a last minute TD against Tampa, a game they controlled for long stretches. They need to get healthy quick. For the Bills, they are angling at having one of the best seasons by point differential for a six-win team, and so easily could be 12-3 right now (missed QB sneak vs Tennessee, twice losing games with goal-to-go under a minute left for the win vs New England and @ Tampa). The Chiefs ae the Chiefs - that defense has become incredible since moving Jones inside, and maybe more importantly getting Melvin Ingram.

Ranking of the NFC Teams

Tier I - The "Embarrassment and Non-Embarrassment" Duo

16.) New York Giants  =  4-11  (248-365)

15.) Detroit Lions  =  2-12-1  (259-386)

The Giants are an embarrassment - that was an embarrassing loss to the Eagles but to be fair to them most of their losses this year were reasonably close. What is embarrassing is them sticking with Joe Judge (and Daniel Jones, to a lesser extent) while getting a new GM. It's just putting off the inevitable. For the Lions, that was a rough loss, but they're very much not an embarrassment despite their record. They should stick behind Dan Campbell for at least a few more years.

Tier II - The "Thankfully not playoff bound" Quinto

14.) Atlanta Falcons  =  7-8  (278-400)

13.) Washington Football Team  =  6-9  (297-407)
12.) Carolina Panthers  =  5-10  (277-345)
11.) Chicago Bears  =  5-10  (265-373)
10.) Seattle Seahawks  =  5-10  (306-307)

The AFC has three terrible teams and then everyone else has at least seven wins. The NFC.... is not like that. Granted, the Falcons somehow have seven wins, but also the second worst point differential in the conference. They just don't have a future as long as they try to wring out more with Matt Ryan. The Football Team's deep fall these last three weeks is a bit tough to watch as well - they too need a solution at QB. For the Panthers, Bears and Seahawks, all three have some good aspects but coaching questions. For the Bears, not sure how Nagy is still employed. For Carroll, I do wonder if the Seahawks do the samrt thing and say "it's time".

Tier III - The "Shame it happened this way" Uno

9.) New Orleans Saints  =  7-8  (316-305)

This should've been a wild card team. In theory I guess they still could if they get Hill back, but with Winston, this was a playoff team and who knows, may have snuck out the division. Their inability to pair their strong defenses with a good offense around late season these last five seasons now is just depressing. I geuss they'll go out and try to nab a top QB somehow under that ridiculous salary bill, but they had a shot this season for a 10 or 11 win season.

Tier IV - The "Wild Card Round Spoilers" Trio

8.) Minnesota Vikings  =  7-8  (384-372)
7.) San Francisco 49ers  =  8-7  (377-334)
6.) Philadelphia Eagles  =  8-7  (398-318)

The Vikings have an outside shot at the playoffs but will need to win in Lambeau in a game the Packers will likely need to win. Their team has so many bright spots but just zero week to week consistency. The 49ers have the opposite problem with good consistency but a low ceiling, made potentially lower with having Garoppolo out for a bit. The Eagles are basically in line for a payoff spot now, and with their point differential, they do deserve it. Hurts has calmed down and/or been given an offense to run with that fits his skills. I think he is still a bit too erratic to make too much noise in the playoffs, but they are a deserving playoff team.

Tier V - The "Freefalling" Uni

5.) Arizona Cardinals  =  10-5  (394-306)

I really don't know what to say with them. This is the second straight year the Cardinals faded but this time I don't think it shows any true issue with their creation or style. It was just three bad games, or more really two bad games as they easily could have beaten the Rams if you change a play or two. Kyler is working a bit too fast in terms of getting out of normal structure and the defense is finally sensing the loss of JJ Watt. They're still a worthy playoff group but this was a definite 'what could have been' type season.

Tier VI - The "Yeah, one of these four is making it" Quadro

4.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers  =  11-4  (442-312)

3.) Los Angeles Rams  =  11-4  (416-326)
2.) Dallas Cowboys  =  11-4  (457-307)

1.) Green Bay Packers  =  12-3  (383-324)

Assuming the Rams hold off Arizona this is a great set of four division winners. I put the Bucs last mainly for injury concerns, which really we won't know too much about the real impact of until the playoffs given they end with the Jets and that dead-man-walking Panthers team. For the Rams, I still have questions and find them the highest variance of these teams, but their high points are quite good. Dallas might be the best team running right now, with a defense that is clearly making its case as a Top-5 unit. The Packers defense is Top-10 quality which given how good Rodgers has been recently should be enough.

Projecting the Playoffs

AFC

1.) Kansas City Chiefs  =  13-4

2.) Tennessee Titans  =  11-6

3.) Buffalo Bills  =  11-6

4.) Cincinnati Bengals  =  10-7

5.) Indianapolis Colts  =  11-6

6.) New England Patriots  =  11-6

7.) Los Angeles Chargers  =  10-7

NFC

1.) Green Bay Packers  =  14-3
2.) Dallas Cowboys  =  13-4
3.) Los Angeles Rams  =  13-4
4.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers  =  13-4
5.) Arizona Cardinals  =  11-6

6.) San Francisco 49ers  =  9-8

7.) Philadelphia Eagles  =  9-8

Looking Ahead to Next Week's Games

16.) Detroit Lions (2-12-1)  @  Seattle Seahawks (5-10)  (4:25 - FOX)

15.) New York Giants (4-11)  @  Chicago Bears (5-10)  (1:00 - CBS)
14.) Jacksonville Jaguars (2-13)  @  New England Patriots (9-6)  (1:00 - CBS)
13.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (11-4)  @  New York Jets (4-11)  (1:00 - FOX)

12.) Carolina Panthers (5-10)  @  New Orleans Saints (7-8)  (1:00 - FOX)

11.) Houston Texans (4-11)  @  San Francisco 49ers (8-7)  (4:05 - CBS)
10.) Atlanta Falcons (7-8)  @  Buffalo Bills (9-6)  (1:00 - FOX)
9.) Philadelphia Eagles (8-7)  @  Washington Football Team (6-9)  (1:00 - FOX)

8.) Miami Dolphins (8-7)  @  Tennessee Titans (10-5)  (1:00 - CBS)

7.) Minnesota Vikings (7-8)  @  Green Bay Packers (12-3)  (SNF - NBC)
6.) Las Vegas Raiders (8-7)  @  Indianapolis Colts (9-6)  (1:00 - FOX)

5.) Cleveland Browns (7-8)  @  Pittsburgh Steelers (7-7-1)  (MNF - ESPN)
4.) Los Angeles Rams (11-4)  @  Baltimore Ravens (8-7)  (4:25 - FOX)
3.) Denver Broncos (7-8)  @  Los Angeles Chargers (8-7)  (4:05 - CBS)
2.) Kansas City Chiefs (11-4)  @  Cincinnati Bengals (9-6)  (1:00 - CBS)
1.) Arizona Cardinals (10-5)  @  Dallas Cowboys (11-4)  (4:25 - FOX)