NFL 2021: Week 16 Power Rankings & The Rest

Before we get to it, you know what, I'm now all for the 17-game, 18-week season. I still would've preferred a 16-game, 18-week season with two byes, but having that extra week of games is awesome. It won't be when records get shattered that otherwise wouldn't, but it will in the sense that right now I would already be a bit sad that the regular season is nearly over, especially with the Week 16-17 being interspersed around Christmas, but instead, we're not done baby!

Ranking the AFC Teams

Tier I - The "Pain Station" Trio

16.) Jacksonville Jaguars  =  2-12  (196-370)

15.) Houston Texans  =  3-11  (207-372)
14.) New York Jets  =  3-11  (250-428)

I don't think I've ever seen a conference with these collection of records where you have three truly decrepit teams, and then everyone else will win seven or more games. Because of our 17-game schedule likely one or two of the seven loss teams will end with a 7-10 record, but if not for that we may have had only three 10-loss teams in the conference. The less said about these teams the better. The Jags have reason for hope because Urban is gone. The Texans have reason for hope because, well, I don't know to be honest.... The Jets, I guess Wilson was better than usual on Sunday, but them too I don't know. Forward looking the Jags have hte brightest future, but for 2021 purposes, they're the worst.

Tier II - The "Let's just hope they go away" Trio

13.) Las Vegas Raiders  =  7-7  (299-374)

12.) Cleveland Browns  =  7-7  (292-305)

11.) Pittsburgh Steelers  =  7-6-1  (291-335)

So there's this giant jogjam of seven and eight win teams, of which four will reach the playoffs. I know for all of our luck at least one of these three will make it in, but I really hope none do. For the Raiders, I feel bad given their year losing Gruden, then Ruggs (both deservedly so), but aside from Carr to Jones, there's really little much else to work with. The Browns are just in Covid hell, and maybe Mayfield comes back and leads a three win resurgence, but again this is unlikely. Their secondary has fallen apart, even with most of them healthy. The Steelers won't die, but you have to really hope it they just do.

Tier III - The "Let's hope they don't go away" Duo

10.) Miami Dolphins  =  7-7  (285-312)
9.) Denver Broncos  =  7-7  (285-243)

I'm pretty sure for most of the first part of the season I had the Dolphins in that group up with the Jets and Jags and co, if not towards the bottom of that group given their awful point differential. Well, six wins later, admittedly most against awful QBs, the Dolphins have almost brought their point differential to zero. The Dolphins with Tua are reliably a team that will score 20 points, as are Denver. Both teams are probably wild card fodder, but deserve to be here given their strength on defense and resiliency. Doubt either makes it given schedules, but do keep your eye on Miami @ New England as the last agme for them.

Tier IV - The "Probably better (injury) luck next year" Duo

8.) Baltimore Ravens  =  8-6  (334-315)

7.) Tennessee Titans  =  9-5  (337-309)

Likely neither will go too far, even if both may well make the playoffs. The Ravens could be 10-4 right now if two gutsy two point conversions go their way, but it just isn't their year. The combination of so many guys on IR, Lamar now missing games, a few covid absences, and so much else has conspired to just knock them off. With Tennessee, it is a bit of the same, with their 8-2 start looking so far ago now with Henry, Brown and Jones all out at the same time. They probably need just one win to win the division but they are a very likely wild card exitee.

Tier V - The "2027 AFC Championship Game Preview" Duo

6.) Cincinnati Bengals  =  8-6  (369-303)

5.) Los Angeles Chargers  =  8-6  (379-370)

I realize these two played a few weeks back and it wasn't all that competitive, but I am really into the idea of Herbert vs. Burrow as a nice little rivalry. Many moons ago when I started this blog, Palmer vs. Rivers was a fun game a handful of times, and this is the same just 12 years later. Both QBs have had great second seasons - even if Burrow has done it more quietly. Both have some talent around them, but have a good enough ability to keep their teams relevant for many years to come. Their play this year can get them to the playoffs, but wake me up in three years time when they're both hopefully ruining everyone's shit.

Tier VI - The "Real Contenders, Pt. 1" Trio

4.) New England Patriots  =  9-5  (367-227)
3.) Indianapolis Colts  =  8-6  (398-300)
2.) Buffalo Bills  =  8-6  (394-293)

The Patriots finally looked mortal, mostly because a team was able to take advantage of their surprisingly porous run defense that had cost them during their 2-4 start. Also Mac Jones had to go to his second read far more than usual, which had him struggle far more than usual. The defense remains great. For the Colts, they have such a high ceiling, but really need their WRs to remain healthy to give the offense anything close to that ceiling. The Bulls have the highest ceiling, and are back in control of their destiny - win out and the division is still theirs. I still think they are the second best team in the conference, and have the only team whose peak can match the team that, somehow, found themselves free and clear as the #1 seed....

Tier V - The "Who are we kidding, the only contender" Uno

1.) Kansas City Chiefs  =  10-4  (385-296)

... and here we are. Still, that win over the Chargers was huge. They had won six straight but most were unimpressive aside from two blowouts of the Raiders. They won this in OT, but their offense cruised against a non-Raiders defense, and their own defense is just so solid now, even without Chris Jones playing. He should be back, though they have their own Covid concerns right now. I still feel the Chiefs are quite clearly back to being the best team in the AFC now.

Ranking the NFC Teams

Tier I - The "Pain Station, NFC" Duo

16.) Chicago Bears  =  4-10  (240-349)

15.) New York Giants  =  4-10  (238-331)

We'll get to the worst team by record in a minute - because these two are teh worst. Would absolutely pick the Lions over either. The Bears just need to fire Nagy already, especially with the new rule where teams that fire coaches midseason get a head start on interviews. Much like the Jags getting rid of Meyer, the Bears moving on from Nagy can only help Fields. For the Giants, at this point we've almost put Jones to pasture. I still like some elements of the Giants, particularly their always decent defense, but the offense is broken, mostly due to a never ending string of skill position injuries that either keeps players out year on year, or whatever happened to Saquon.

Tier II - The "Pour one out for Danny C" Uno

14.) Detroit Lions  =  2-11-1  (243-366)

I don't know if any coach has ever gotten the priase for coaching a four or less win team than Dan Campbell is going to get. The Lions were rolled a few times, but also came within ridiculous field goals (remember Tucker's 66-yarder?) from winning a few more games. Their point differential is not good, but also better than a normal two-win team. They play really hard for Campbell, and I hope they actually give him the time to build something in Detroit. I do wonder whether they have to quickly make a move to move on from Goff.

Tier III - The "Tom Brady really just gets it all" Duo

13.) Atlanta Falcons  =  6-8  (258-384)
12.) Carolina Panthers  =  5-9  (271-313)

These teams are just unbearable at times. The Cam Newton return has been as ugly as feared, and while that defense is still decent it can't last playing 40 minutes a game. Without McCaffrey the offense has no ability to keep the bal. The Falcons have no real ability in any way, their point differential laughable for a team that has six wins. They're a clear contender to do even worse next year, and you wonder if they just need to turn the page on the Matt Ryan era at this point.

Tier IV - The "Just not good enough" Duo

11.) Seattle Seahawks  =  5-9  (282-282)
10.) Washington Football Team  =  6-8  (283-351)

Two playoff teams last year that are absolutely not making it back, and just chuck it down to not being good enough. For the Seahawks, this year is somewhat mirroring a similar season by the Packers in 2018, before they finally got rid of Mike McCarthy and it rejuvenated the franchise. They need something similar with Pete Carroll - the team by point differential is still better than a 5-9 team. For the WFT, at this point with Garrett Gilbert they just don't have the horses. I still like what Ron Rivera is building but they just need a plan at QB that isnt' based on blind hope.

Tier V - The "Wild Card Really Hopefuls"

9.) Philadelphia Eagles  =  7-7  (364-308)
8.) New Orleans Saints  =  7-7  (313-285)

I don't think either team makes it, and I don't think I want them in. The Eagles have had good moments but their struggle to put away Gilbert was a bit of a sign. To me, there are a lot of similarities here between this team and the 2016 Eagles in Wentz's first year that went 7-9 with a lot better underlying numbers. For the Saints, it pains me to think where they would have been had Jameis not torn his ACL - certainly not on the outside of the playoff bubble given how good the defense played all year. What Dennis Allen has been able to do these past three years in New Orleans is nothing short of amazing, even with the good personnel they have from years of strong drafting.

Tier VI - The "Wild Card Hopefuls" Duo

7.) Minnesota Vikings  =  7-7  (361-342)
6.) San Francisco 49ers  =  8-6  (360-314)

I would call these teams low floor, low ceiling, except I think both are quietly pretty high-variance. The Vikings defense alternates between looking like their great unit from 2017 or 2019 to a terrible one. Cousins can never string more than two good games in a row, and they really need Thielen back. For the 49ers, their just a solid team, and I do think fits the low floor, low ceiling quite aptly. I do wonder if they could beat any of the five ahead of them in a road playoff game, but I don't see them getting blown out. Seeing Nick Bosa back and healthy has been great this year. But better than that has been their OL continuing its dominance despite some injury issues.

Tier VII - The "NFC Contenders, Pt. 1" Trio

5.) Los Angeles Rams  =  10-4  (386-303)

4.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers  =  10-4  (410-306)

3.) Arizona Cardinals  =  10-4  (378-384)

I honestly forgot the Rams are just a four loss team, the losses to the 49ers and Titans seeming like ages ago. I still worry about any team that is able to hold Kupp and how the Rams can react, but their tp players are all still playing great. For the Bucs, we can look past that game, just like last year's 38-3 loss to the Saints at home proved to be fairly meaningless, but what we can't look back is losing Godwin, and seemingly Fournette as well, for the year. Getting Brown back should help, but if Evans doesn't return 100% from that hamstring this offense suddenly looks a lot more mortal, even against teams that aren't the Saints. Speaking of a team that looks a lot more mortal... I'm hoping we can chalk that loss to Detroit as a "well, everyone has one of those..." type games, but I worry abotu the offense getting too off cycle too much and over-relying on Kyler magic.

Tier VIII - The "Yeah, I'm ok with this as the NFC Title Game" Duo

2.) Dallas Cowboys  =  10-4  (401-293)

1.) Green Bay Packers  =  11-3  (359-302)

A potential Cowboys @ Packers title game would be simultaneously nauseating and incredible. Yes, the hagiography would be ridiculous, but the potential matchup of two well balanced teams, seeing Rodgers against what has quietly been the league's best defense for a while now, all in cold, filled, Lambeau would be amazing. Of course, we never get amazing and are probably as likely to get some wild card fodder heading to Tampa or something ot he sort, but enjoy dreaming about this matchup for now if you want. THe Cowboys offense should get better as the weapons continue to return, but to reach their full potential they just need to go full bore with Pollard. For the Packers, getting healthy including finally getting Zadarius Smith and David Bakhtiari, would be such a great late season boost as well.

Projecting the Playoffs

AFC

1.) Kansas City Chiefs  =  13-4

2.) Indianapolis Colts  =  11-6 (shocked myself)

3.) Buffalo Bills  =  11-6

4.) Cincinnati Bengals  =  10-7

5.) New England Patriots  =  11-6

6.) Los Angeles Chargers  =  11-6

7.) Tennessee Titans  =  10-7

NFC

1.) Green Bay Packers  =  14-3

2.) Los Angeles Rams  =  13-4

3.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers  =  13-4

4.) Dallas Cowboys  =  12-5

5.) Arizona Cardinals  =  12-5

6.) San Francisco 49ers  =  10-7

7.) Philadelphia Eagles  =  9-8

Looking Ahead to Next Week's Games

16.) Jacksonville Jaguars (2-11)  @  New York Jets (3-10)  (1:00 - CBS)

15.) Detroit Lions (2-11-1)  @  Atlanta Falcons (6-8)  (1:00 - FOX)

14.) Chicago Bears (4-10)  @  Seattle Seahawks (5-9)  (4:05 - FOX)

13.) New York Giants (4-10)  @  Philadelphia Eagles (7-7)  (1:00 - FOX)

12.) Washington Football Team (6-8)  @  Dallas Cowboys (10-4)  (SNF - NBC)
11.) Los Angeles Chargers (8-6)  @  Houston Texans (3-11)  (1:00 - CBS)
10.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (10-4)  @  Carolina Panthers (5-9)  (1:00 - FOX)
9.) Denver Broncos (7-7)  @  Las Vegas Raiders (7-7)  (4:25 - CBS)

8.) Miami Dolphins (7-7)  @  New Orleans Saints (7-7)  (MNF - ESPN)

7.) Cleveland Browns (7-7)  @  Green Bay Packers (11-3)  (Sat - NFLN)
6.) Los Angeles Rams (10-4)  @  Minnesota Vikings (7-7)  (1:00 - FOX)
5.) Pittsburgh Steelers (7-6-1)  @  Kansas City Chiefs (10-4)  (4:25 - CBS)
4.) San Francisco 49ers (8-6)  @  Tennessee Titans (9-5)  (TNF - NFLN)

3.) Indianapolis Colts (8-6)  @  Arizona Cardinals (10-4)  (Sat - NFLN)
2.) Baltimore Ravens (8-6)  @  Cincinnati Bengals (8-6)  (1:00 - CBS)

1.) Buffalo Bills (8-6)  @  New England Patriots (9-5)  (1:00 - CBS)