I was pretty sure the Astros were going to do something. I thought it might have been Syndergaard at first. In the end it was Greinke, a 35-year old pitching savant that is aging like a fine wine - someone unlike his new teammate who is aging like a powerful batch of scotch. Obviously I feel excited about this development.
The Astros were already a really good team, but had one serious flaw being their stunning lack of starting pitching depth. Now they need less depth than most because of how good Verlander and Cole are, but depth is damn important. They won the 2017 World Series because their surplus of starters turned into good relievers which was doubly needed when their regular receivers went to shit. That may get to happen here, but it will be even better when the Astros have their good starters anyway.
That isn't to say this is a 100% win, both in terms of its on-the-field impact, and my mental state as a fan of the team. For the on-the-field part, this is a clear win in 2019. That is undebateable. Assuming no injuries or serious regression, they have the clear best #1-3 in baseball. Greinke will be there next year. They didn't give up anything that would impact their chances in 2019. There's even a chance none of those guys would make an impact in 2020 - specifically Beer who is blocked and Moran who is recovering from TJ.
But what this likely means is Gerrit Cole is gone after this season. He probably was going to be gone anyway, but there was a chance the Astros would pony up the $30-35m it would take to sign a great, durable, pitcher in his prime. Instead, they'll put all the eggs in the "hope Verlander and Greinke continue to age well + McCullers returns well from TJ" basket. That's still a good basket, a better one that was able to still win the World Series in 2017, but having to lose Cole is not fun.
From a personal standpoint, I hate having all the expectations. I hate being the enemy, the juggernaut, the team people expect to win. There is no doubt that the Astros are the favorite now. That should be great, but the true favorite hasn't won the World Series in a while (forget last year for a second). The Astros were truly great in 2017, with a silently historically good offense, but they weren;t the favorite - the Dodgers were.
I don't think the Astros are necessarily seen as a Yankees type team that generates mass hate and derision - but they're close, be it the (deservedly) smug attitude their front office takes at times, or their smarter than everyone else approach - which again is well deserved. Jeff Luhnow pulled off his second trade deadline coup in three years. The first time it ended with a World Series title. It might do so this time as well.
I also want to look at the macro view of where the Astros are now versus four years ago, when they surprisingly won the Wild Card, and also made a deadline deal - the first sign they thought they had arrived and got to a point where they should be buyers.
I wrote at the time how I was happy how Jeff Luhnow was not mortgaging the future in what ended up being fairly bad trades for Carlos Gomez, Mike Fiers and Scott Kazmir. That trade didn't really work out - the best player somehow ended up being Mike Fiers, but they gave up nothing.
Four years later, teh incentives are different. The Astros are more ready to mortgage the future. They can trade three prospects that they wouldn't have dreamed of parting with four years ago. But do you know what I love a about Luhnow is that this isn't just for 2019. This is for 2020, bolstering a rotation that may get worse with Cole leaving. This is also picking up Sanchez who they will hope to resurrect the way they did Morton. This is about timing the expiry of Greinke and Verlander's deals when they'll be 37 and 38, and Correa is up for an extension. This is holding on to Whitley and Tucker in the hope they can fulfill the promise everyone was hoping they would.
In the end, it is still more likely than not the Astros don't win the World Series, but it is so good to have a team know they are in a special run and want to maximize it. It is so good to have a GM that is creative and active and still prioritizes sustainability. And it is so good to have Zack Greinke, that effing wizard, on your team.
The Astros were already a really good team, but had one serious flaw being their stunning lack of starting pitching depth. Now they need less depth than most because of how good Verlander and Cole are, but depth is damn important. They won the 2017 World Series because their surplus of starters turned into good relievers which was doubly needed when their regular receivers went to shit. That may get to happen here, but it will be even better when the Astros have their good starters anyway.
That isn't to say this is a 100% win, both in terms of its on-the-field impact, and my mental state as a fan of the team. For the on-the-field part, this is a clear win in 2019. That is undebateable. Assuming no injuries or serious regression, they have the clear best #1-3 in baseball. Greinke will be there next year. They didn't give up anything that would impact their chances in 2019. There's even a chance none of those guys would make an impact in 2020 - specifically Beer who is blocked and Moran who is recovering from TJ.
But what this likely means is Gerrit Cole is gone after this season. He probably was going to be gone anyway, but there was a chance the Astros would pony up the $30-35m it would take to sign a great, durable, pitcher in his prime. Instead, they'll put all the eggs in the "hope Verlander and Greinke continue to age well + McCullers returns well from TJ" basket. That's still a good basket, a better one that was able to still win the World Series in 2017, but having to lose Cole is not fun.
From a personal standpoint, I hate having all the expectations. I hate being the enemy, the juggernaut, the team people expect to win. There is no doubt that the Astros are the favorite now. That should be great, but the true favorite hasn't won the World Series in a while (forget last year for a second). The Astros were truly great in 2017, with a silently historically good offense, but they weren;t the favorite - the Dodgers were.
I don't think the Astros are necessarily seen as a Yankees type team that generates mass hate and derision - but they're close, be it the (deservedly) smug attitude their front office takes at times, or their smarter than everyone else approach - which again is well deserved. Jeff Luhnow pulled off his second trade deadline coup in three years. The first time it ended with a World Series title. It might do so this time as well.
I also want to look at the macro view of where the Astros are now versus four years ago, when they surprisingly won the Wild Card, and also made a deadline deal - the first sign they thought they had arrived and got to a point where they should be buyers.
I wrote at the time how I was happy how Jeff Luhnow was not mortgaging the future in what ended up being fairly bad trades for Carlos Gomez, Mike Fiers and Scott Kazmir. That trade didn't really work out - the best player somehow ended up being Mike Fiers, but they gave up nothing.
Four years later, teh incentives are different. The Astros are more ready to mortgage the future. They can trade three prospects that they wouldn't have dreamed of parting with four years ago. But do you know what I love a about Luhnow is that this isn't just for 2019. This is for 2020, bolstering a rotation that may get worse with Cole leaving. This is also picking up Sanchez who they will hope to resurrect the way they did Morton. This is about timing the expiry of Greinke and Verlander's deals when they'll be 37 and 38, and Correa is up for an extension. This is holding on to Whitley and Tucker in the hope they can fulfill the promise everyone was hoping they would.
In the end, it is still more likely than not the Astros don't win the World Series, but it is so good to have a team know they are in a special run and want to maximize it. It is so good to have a GM that is creative and active and still prioritizes sustainability. And it is so good to have Zack Greinke, that effing wizard, on your team.
