15.) Can the Red Sox wake up?
They started the year terribly,
seemed to rebound, then struggled again. We are now 90 games in, they are on
pace for 88 wins, but that is also trumped up by a 4-game win streak over a
lowly also-ran heading into the break. The Red Sox were a 108-win dynamo last
year, but we knew that wasn't going to repeat. It is a bit strange to see so
much fall apart this season however. They remain a sleeping giant, but I still
do worry about their pitching beyond Sale. Their bullpen is still a disaster at
times. Mookie has gone back to 2017 Mookie - still a very good player but not a
legitimate contender to Trout as best player in the world. I should say, in
no way do I want them to wake up. I’m very happy with the Red Sox maybe
slightly missing the playoffs or being the ALDS fodder they were in 2016-17,
but there is a risk they discover their magic.
14.) Can the Nationals pull
this off?
Through maybe 60 or 70 games, the Nationals were the biggest
disappointments in the league, despite all their good players playing fairly
well (something true of last year’s team aside from harper). Scherzer is having
arguably his best year yet. Strasburg has an ERA+ of 125, Corbin at 136. Their
bullpen needs help, but that pitching combined with Rendon, Turner and Soto
should be good enough. They’ve climbed to 6 back of the Braves – who likely are
better – but the Nationals have the potential to catch them. It would be fun to
watch, especially with them batting the Harper-ed Phillies for 2nd
place at the moment.
13.) Can Clayton Kershaw
recover himself?
12.) Will we have the greatest Wild Card scramble ever in the NL
Right now, 11 of the 12 non-division leaders in the NL are either
owning a Wild Card spot or within 7.5 games of one (the Mets, at 40-50). If we
get rid of them, the Giants (5.5 games back) and Reds (4.5 games back) we are
left with 8 legitimate Wild Card contenders all within 2.5 games, from the
Nationals at 47-42 to the Rockies and Pirates at 44-45. Throw in the Cubs, who
are barely ahead of the Brewers, Cardinals and Pirates, and you have 9 teams
fighting for three spots. This could get crazy. Of course, none of these teams
are really all that great (maybe excepting the Cubs, whose underlying numbers
are better than their record), but they all have fun aspects. From Josh Bell’s
ridiculous power season, to Puig on the Reds, to the most ridiculous Coors’
season yet, to the fun Padres, and the less fun Cards. This could get crazy,
even if the final outcome is two 85-77 teams getting in.
11.) Can Pete Alonso hit 50 home runs?
I’ll be addressing the home run spike later on, and ys I am very
cognizant that Pete Alonso’s run towards 50 home runs is very much aided by the
ridiculous home run spike caused by the pill of the baseball or some shit. But all
that said, God is he a monster. Yes, we’ll take about Vladito’s Home Run Derby
performance for ages, but good God was Alonso showing off in that as well. The
Mets are every bit as LOLMETs as any other year, from not realizing players on
their 1969 team are still alive during their celebration, to Brody Van Waganen
throwing a chair, but at least they have Pete Alonso’s crazy bombs.
10.) Will Bryce Harper really be this bad?
Look, we all knew the downside was there. And while it easy to laugh
at the Phillies plight, it is a bit sad as well. Harper is easy to hate, but he
is also easy to love, a guy who was catapulted into a star at 16, and actually
made it. He still had an 11-win season that equalled anything Trout put up.
Yes, it was for just one solitary season, but it was special. It sucks to watch
him not even come close, despite him still having positive value with
surprisingly good defensive numbers and still a keen batting eye. How he hasn’t
been able to translate that eye into contact when he does swing will always be
a mystery. You have to imagine it will get better, but Philadelphia turns on
overpriced free agents quick (just ask about umpteen Flyers).
9.) Can Mike Trout have his best season yet?
What’s hilarious is that if Trout’s slips by about 20% in the
second half, he’ll end up with about a 8-9 win season, and that would only be
good for his like 5th or 6th best season. What's crazy this year is how much of his value comes from his hitting. He's been so consistently 65-85% better than average as a hitter that we forget just how staggeringly good that is. So now, when his close to 100% better than average, we realize it a whole hell of a lot more. He has no weaknesses. He's firmly into he-will-be-Willie Mays or Barry Bonds or (roids aside) A-Rod. There is a chance we are about to see something truly spectacular, the best single season since prime (roided) Bonds.
8.) Can Cody Bellinger have a historic season himself?
Through 80 games, Cody Bellinger was the best player in baseball. Trout’s
ridiculous finish to the first half (your welcome, says Houston’s pitchers)
pushed him ahead of Cody, but it still is close, and Bellinger’s power numbers
are still audacious, as are his defense and baserunning, despite his size.
Bellinger may not be on pace for a 12-win season anymore, but he’s clearly in
the 10-11 which Trout aside, has only been done by Harper and Mookie in the
past six years. Bellinger is at 6.6 bWAR already, bouyed by 1.5 WAR on defense. That is insane. He is insane. He is so much better than his journeyman Yankee gnat-father Clay it is hilarious. Think of this as baseball's Peyton Manning vs. Archie - except Clay somehow won a World Series or two. Given he's on the Dodgers, that may remain out of reach for Cody, sadly.
7.) Can Fernando Tatis, Jr., put up a Trout 2012 season?
Look, he won't get to Trout 2012 levels because he won't play as many games, but Tatis is on a 10-win pace if he played 140 games. He's younger than Trout was in 2012 - he'll be 20 all season long. He is ridiculous. The last player this good at 20 was Trout, with maybe Carlos Correa in that argument for his rookie 2015 season. I'm so happy the Padres called him up from day one, not letting a true future stud languise in the minors, injecting some added excitement for a team that needed some. It is weird having watched Fernando Tatis (and Vlad Sr.) and now watching their kids fucking load up in 2019, but here we are. I am old. Fernandito is amazing. That is all.
6.) Can Hyun-Jin Ryu keep this up?
His start in Colorado took some sheen of his 1.29 ERA, moving it
to only 1.74 – basically a peak Kershaw season. Given Kershaw’s relative
struggles, and Buehler not being the immediate stud everyone thought he was
primed to be, the Dodgers kind of needed a starter to step up. Well, as most
things do for the Dodgers in the regular season, everything came up roses with
Ryu becoming Kershaw. He won’t keep it up, but maybe? His peripherals are
great, though not Scherzer great. He is durable, he hides his delivery really
well. Ryu has been brilliant, and the Dodgers will continue to need him to be.
5.) Can the Twins finish their great breakout?
At this point they are such overwhelming favorites to win their
division that saying if they will ‘finish’ the breakout is not really an interesting
question. It would take an epic collapse given they’ve played about as well as
a 56-32 team. What will be more interesting is if they can keep their underlying
metrics as good – can they keep up their historic team home run pace where it
currently is? Can Jose Berrios keep up what might be a sneaky AL Cy Young
season. There’s a lot of potential here, and they should try to do anything in
their power to finish #1 in the AL to avoid the Yankees until at least a
potential ALCS. It would be the worst if the Twins finally have ~100-win season
only to lose to the Yankees in the playoffs… again. The home run hitting is
fascinating given how little power they’d displayed in year past, and the
ballpark not historically being a huge home run ballpark. Again, the new ball
is a big factor, but it is also the Twins. Their opponents haven’t hit nearly
as well at Target Field.
4.) Can the Rangers break-up
the inevitable?
The 2018 AL Playoff had no race. It was clear at about this point
the Astros, Red Sox and Indians would iwn their divisions, and the Yankees and
A’s would be the two wild card teams. This year, it seems clear the Astros, Twins
and Yankees will win their divisions, but the Wild Card is a bit open, with the
Rays, Red Sox, A’s and Rangers all in there. The first three are all fairly expected,
but the Rangers are a shock. Despite them being ostensibly a ‘rival’ to my
Astros, it has been fun watching them come out of nowhere, especially when
Hunter Pence was involved for a few weeks.
3.) Can the Astros or Yankees
go on a tear?
Both teams have dealt, or are still dealing with, terrible injuries. At one point, the Astros were missing Altuve, Springer (who was having an awesome season) and Correa (who is still out). The Yankees were missing the full heart of their lineup as well. The Astros have piece-mealed starters behind Verlander and Cole. The Yankees bullpen remains incredible, but it helps that all their regulars (including the fill-ins) have OPS+'s over 109 (most over 120). Two years ago, they met in the ALCS and it seemed to kick off a rivalry for AL dominance that would last a while. The Red Sox were interesting interlopers last year but we are back. The Yankees are currently one game ahead (two in the loss column). It will be quite the chase on the way out.
2.) Can the Dodgers win 109 games?
This seems more stupid now that the Dodgers had a sub-par end to the
first half. They need to go 59-21 in the second half, which to be honest is not
impossible for this team. Ok, yes, that is still ludicrous, a 73.5% win percentage
for nearly half a season. Of course, they were 91-34 two years ago (then again,
that is a 72.7% win percentage). The Dodgers are so well balanced, despite
having Kershaw miss a month and a half, despite Seager missing a month, despite
having to toss and turn random guys in the bullpen ahead of Kenley, the Dodgers
are the best team in baseball by record and by every underlying number known to
man. It will suck when they lose the World Series again.
1.) Will the home run spike ever end?
No. The answer is No. Of course, the answer is also yes if MLB
quietly changes the baseball back to what it was – which they reportedly did in
2018 when home run rates fell from the then-high of 2017. In the end, the 2018
down-turn will be seen like the bizarre NFL defense resurgence in 2017 after
years and years of setting new passing records (which, to no one’s surprise,
came back in force in 2018). The home run spike is due to the ball. It is so
obvious, especially since the biggest impact seems to be pushing the power floor
up rather than turn Stanton or Judge or Bellinger into a 70-home run player.
