Tier I - The "2019 is just around the corner" Quadro
32.) Arizona Cardinals (3-11 = 192-367)
31.) Oakland Raiders (3-11 = 260-418)
30.) New York Jets (4-10 = 292-359)
29.) New York Giants (5-9 = 307-348)
No point in dwelling. We have a clear bottom four. In a nice bit of symmetry, three of them were also three of the worst four teams 15 years ago (Cardinals, Raiders, Giants, who all went 4-12 that year along with 4-12 San Diego). If I had to rank which of these teams has the best chance to recover in 2019, it would be the Jets given their QB may improve drastically, and there is marginally more structure there than Arizona. For the Giants, they really just have to cut ties with Eli. The fact he may have played himself into starting in 2019 is just ridiculous.
Tier II - The "The end of the long night" Quadro
28.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-9 = 344-403)
27.) Jacksonville Jaguars (4-10 = 225-289)
26.) Detroit Lions (5-9 = 284-333)
25.) San Francisco 49ers (4-10 = 301-373)
These are prime spoilers for the last two weeks of the season. Tampa can't really spoil anything unless Dallas also loses Week 17. Detroit can really make life complicated for Minnesota, which given that game is in Detroit can easily happen. The Lions seem hapless on the road, but have beaten solid teams all year long at home, wreaking havoc on the NFC. The Jaguars can knock off Miami fully, and then maybe push the Texans out of the #2 seed (assuming Philadelphia doesn't do that again). The 49ers have two chances to repeat what they did to Seattle, with the chance to end the Bears dream of a bye, or maybe the Rams chance of a bye. In reality, the group in the lowest tier can play spoiler too, but let's be real.
Tier III - The "How did they win so many games?" Duo
24.) Buffalo Bills (5-9 = 215-333)
23.) Cincinnati Bengals (6-8 = 337-413)
The Bills have one of the worst point differentials, not helped by some truly lop-sided losses. In a way though, I want to commend them for squeezing out five wins, for having a solid defense, top-5 by DVOA, despite having limited talent. Sean McDermott has done a great job on that side of the ball. The offense is so limited, but they've even done well creating a weird scheme based on Josh Allen's running ability. The Bengals I can't really commend, but they've been decent with Driskell at QB. I don't think he's going to push Dalton, but he's a reasonable player.
Tier IV - The "Sad little .500 teams" Duo
22.) Miami Dolphins (7-7 = 295-374)
21.) Washington Redskins (7-7 = 265-310)
In theory, both these teams are alive. The Dolphins need a million things to break their way, but they can also go 9-7 fairly easily. I do wonder what happens with Adam Gase and Tannehill. It's clear there is a cap on their success, and while Gase can churn out 7-9 or 9-7 seasons in his sleep, they need a full restructuring. The Redskins don't, but man having to depend on Josh Johnson is so depressing. Their run probably ends this week with Tennessee, but that Jacksonville win probably spares Jay Gruden as it removes the chance of ending on a seven game losing streak.
Tier V - The "What the hell happened?" Duo
20.) Atlanta Falcons (5-9 = 356-381)
19.) Green Bay Packers (5-8-1 = 332-331)
The Falcons and Packers were betting favorites to make the playoffs - admittedly both as Wild Cards, but to see them both fall so spectacularly is something to behold. People have largely let the Falcons fall without much time spent examining their issues. A lot of that is probably the spate of injuries on defense, but they've been a huge disappointment, including their passing game slipping last few weeks (last week's game excepted). The Packers are a bit more bizarre. By point differential, they aren't too bad. By actual play, they are really bad. They will be a smart trendy pick next year if they can get a coordinator or play-caller that can rein in Rodgers a bit. It is a bit ironic that these are the exact same issues that ended the Mike Sherman era, when Favre stopped respecting the coach. Which of course led to the hiring of Mike McCarthy in the first place.
Tier VI - The "Probably not, but still somewhat alive" Trio
18.) Carolina Panthers (6-8 = 333-344)
17.) Cleveland Browns (6-7-1 = 309-348)
16.) Denver Broncos (6-8 = 306-299)
RIP the Panthers, the most surprising collapse I've seen. Of course, change like three plays, and they are 8-6 and a likely wild card team - be it the missed field goals against Detroit, converting the late TD against Cleveland or the DJ Moore fumble in the red zone against the Saints. I think they shut down Cam, and I'm getting the feeling they fire Ron Rivera, which I think is a mistake. For the Browns and Broncos, neither team is likely making the playoffs, and are going in opposite directions in 2019. The Broncos need their Baker Mayfield. Case Keenum is not the answer. For Baker, it will be so critical what happens to the coaching staff. It is hard to believe that the Browns have stumbled into magic with Gregg Williams and Freddie Kitchens, but the results more or less speak for themselves. They have one of the best offenses in the NFL since Kitchens replaced Hue/Haley. The Broncos are in an interesting position being in a tough division, with aging talent leading a team destined for 7-9 or 8-8.
Tier VII - The "If we can just get in...." Quadro
15.) Philadelphia Eagles (7-7 = 311-318)
14.) Tennessee Titans (8-6 = 268-254)
13.) Minnesota Vikings (7-6-1 = 323-308)
12.) Dallas Cowboys (8-6 = 276-269)
All of these teams have hopes of making it in. The Cowboys have a really good chance obviously, the Vikings have to win just one more game. But all that said, none of these teams are really that good. The Eagles can pretend Foles will recapture 2017, but there are issues with that OL and secondary that are not getting fixed. The Titans have a great defense, and it will come down likely to their Week 17 game agianst the Colts, but they've not beaten a Luck or Manning led Colts team since 2008. The Vikings are seemingly fixed, but it is hard to trust their jekyll & hyde nature. With Dallas, they are going to win the division unless they lose both games and either Philly or Washington win both, but I don't think Seattle, or any potential #5 seed, will fear that location. To be fair, their loss to the Colts was more about terrible 4th down luck than actual terrible play.
Tier VIII - The "They hope we don't get in...." Duo
11.) Seattle Seahawks (8-6 = 363-292)
10.) Indianapolis Colts (8-6 = 372-300)
Same record. Basically same point different (+71 vs. +72). Same seventh year QB having a brilliant season. The Seahawks and Colts are scary wild card teams. The Seahawks are probably making it, and more probably playing Dallas in the first round. Even in past year's the Seahawks peak as a wild card team has been the divisional round, but they have a high peak. The Colts may easily miss the playoffs, but this season has been a huge success. Frank Reich was a great hire. Eberflus might be even better - the one gift Josh McDaniels gave the Colts in his quick run atop the mountain. The alternative #6 seeds (Ravens/Steelers most likely) are scary as well, but the Colts are a terrifying team if you are New England or Houston in that #3 seed.
Tier IX - The "Old AFC Guard" Trio
9.) New England Patriots (9-5 = 374-310)
8.) Pittsburgh Steelers (8-5-1 = 384-316)
7.) Baltimore Ravens (8-6 = 341-253)
This year's AFC has a clear best three teams/ And none of the Patriots, Steelers or Ravens (who along with 'Team QBed by Peyton Manning' have represented the AFC in the Super Bowl each of the last 15 years) are one of those three. The Patriots are out of excuses. They may luck into the #2 seed if hte Texans slip up (basically what happened in 2013 as well, the last Patriots team that was this weak). They just lost to Pittsburgh in a game where they picked off Roethlisberger twice and held them to 17 points. They punted five straight drives against Pittsburgh. Speaking of Pitsburgh, they too can't feel too good about barely beating the Patriots despite holding them to 10 points. Neither team came out of that game looking good, except for the Steelers savings their season before they head to the Superdome. For the Ravens, I do wonder how long they can continue this smoke and mirrors run the ball show, but that defense continues to be great. This is the recipe of the team that got the #6 seed at 9-7 in 2009 and beat the Patriots the last time the Patriots didn't get a bye and didn't win 12 games.
Tier X - The "2008 contenders in 2018" Duo
6.) Houston Texans (10-4 = 352-281)
5.) Chicago Bears (10-4 = 383-264)
It's a bit unfair to call the Texans a 2008 contender, but both of these teams are built off of incredibly talented defenses, and skittery offenses with 2nd year QBs and nice playmakers. For the Texans I get the feeling Bill O'Brien is limiting his QB and weapons, while Trubisky limits Nagy's scheme. The defenses are great, the Texans more dominant at home when Watt and Clowney can truly doinate. Quietly, Watt has 14.5 sacks this year and has been the 2nd best defensive player in football. The Bears have to hope the Eddie Jackson injury isn't too serious, as they have a special defense going.
Tier XI - The "Big 4 Challengers" Quadro
4.) Los Angeles Rams (11-3 = 448-343)
3.) Los Angeles Chargers (11-3 = 395-298)
2.) Kansas City Chiefs (11-3 = 499-380)
1.) New Orleans Saints (12-2 = 459-292)
Let's put the Chargers aside for the moment - all I'll say about them is I hope to dear god Keenan Allen gets healthy as I want them 100% in the playoffs. For the other three, the big three teams of 2018, all have serious questions. The Chiefs defense continues to be a problem - but that offense is still special. They do miss Kareem Hunt in the screen game however, which puts more pressure on Conley and those other receivers. For the Rams, there are serious problems. With two winnable games to go, they should still get a bye, but that offense does not look right. Some teams have little dips (we'll get to another one in a second), but their defense is not good enough to survive a sustained offensive dip. For the Saints, I'm still thinking this offensive blip will get fixed, but this is four straight sub-par game from Brees and Co (coming right after scoring 45-51-48 in three straight games). Unlike the Rams, their defense has been spectacular, allowing them to go 3-1 in the low offensive point, and admittedly all of the last three were on the road, but I don't think a Chicago or Dallas will fear going into the dome after all.
Projecting the Playoffs
AFC
1.) Kansas City Chiefs = 13-3
2.) Houston Texans = 12-4
3.) New England Patriots = 11-5
4.) Baltimore Ravens = 10-6
5.) Los Angeles Chargers = 12-4
6.) Indianapolis Colts = 10-6
NFC
1.) New Orleans Saints = 13-3
2.) Los Angeles Rams = 13-3
3.) Chicago Bears = 11-5
4.) Dallas Cowboys = 9-7
5.) Minnesota Vikings = 9-6-1
6.) Seattle Seahawks = 9-7
Predicting the Awards
MVP:
1.) Patrick Mahomes
2.) Drew Brees
3.) Philip Rivers
After Brees's 4th straight off performance, I do think Mahomes has wrapped this up. Even if they lose to the Seahawks and the Chargers win the division, Mahomes is a good shot to beat Marino's old TD record at 48, with a shot at 50. I'm sorry, the consistent best unit this season was the Chiefs offense and he's the most important part. The way things are trending, I may bump Rivers up ahead of Brees. At the end, unless Mahomes ends poorly, we are in pure 'career achievement' area with Brees. Yes, I agree it is sad someone as great all-time as Brees is never won an MVP, but sadly he just was never the best QB in any one season.
OPOTY
1.) Patrick Mahomes
2.) Todd Gurley
3.) Adam Thielen
Again, guy is going to end up with 47-51 TDs. There's no way he doesn't win this award. Gurley has been a monster again, and while he won last season I still think he's one of the most dynamic players in the NFL. Theilen has been quieter the last few weeks, but will end up with a silly consistent all time season.
DPOTY
1.) Aaron Donald
2.) JJ Watt
3.) Eddie Jackson
Donald is a monster. There's no one really in his league as a palyer at the moment. The only guy in recent memory that was is the guy I think is #2 this year. I'm so happy JJ Watt has returned to prominence after two seasons in teh wilderness. I would love someone to do a breakdown if Donald is better now than Watt was from 2012-2015. I don't think eh was. Watt from that era was arguably the best defensive player ever. For Eddie Jackson, I just hope he gets healthy.
COTY
1.) Matt Nagy
2.) Frank Reich
3.) Anthony Lynn
I think if Frank Reich's Colts get to 10-6 and snag a wildcard he may get it steering the Colts from a 1-5 start (admittedly, he was the coach of the selfsame 1-5 Colts). Anthony Lynn will probably get dinged a big since he was there last year, and a lot of people liked the Chargers coming into the year, but in a world of everyone loving zany offensive minds, it is easy to forget Lynn's Chargers have gone 19-7 in their last 26 games. Nagy should get it, even if Vic Fangio is the biggest reason for their success. Nagy's taken a scatter-shot QB and mix of average and good parts into a fungible offense.
Looking Ahead to Next Week's Games
16.) Denver Broncos (6-8) @ Oakland Raiders (4-10) (MNF - ESPN)
15.) Green Bay Packers (5-8-1) @ New York Jets (4-10) (1:00 - FOX)
I call it "Bad vs. Bad" Monday and Sunday,
14.) Atlanta Falcons (5-9) @ Carolina Panthers (X-X) (1:00 - FOX)
13.) Cincinnati Bengals (6-8) @ Cleveland Browns (6-7-1) (1:00 - CBS)
12.) Jacksonville Jaguars (4-10) @ Miami Dolphins (7-7) (1:00 - CBS)
I call it "Essentially Bad vs. Bad" Sunday,
11.) Buffalo Bills (5-9) @ New England Patriots (9-5) (1:00 - CBS)
10.) New York Giants (5-9) @ Indianapolis Colts (8-6) (1:00 - FOX)
9.) Washington Redskins (7-7) @ Tennessee Titans (8-6) (Sat - NFLN)
8.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-9) @ Dallas Cowboys (8-6) (1:00 - FOX)
7.) Minnesota Vikings (7-6-1) @ Detroit Lions (5-9) (1:00 - FOX)
6.) Los Angeles Rams (11-3) @ Arizona Cardinals (3-11) (4:05 - FOX)
5.) Houston Texans (10-4) @ Philadelphia Eagles (7-7) (1:00 - CBS)
4.) Chicago Bears (10-4) @ San Francisco 49ers (4-10) (4:05 - FOX)
I call it "Holy Hell there are a lot of Good vs. Bad" Saturday and Sunday,
3.) Pittsburgh Steelers (8-5-1) @ New Orleans Saints (X-X) (4:25 - CBS)
2.) Baltimore Ravens (8-6) @ Los Angeles Chargers (11-3) (Sat - NFLN)
1.) Kansas City Chiefs (11-3) @ Seattle Seahawks (8-6) (SNF - NBC)
I call it "Finally some good games" Saturday and Sunday,
32.) Arizona Cardinals (3-11 = 192-367)
31.) Oakland Raiders (3-11 = 260-418)
30.) New York Jets (4-10 = 292-359)
29.) New York Giants (5-9 = 307-348)
No point in dwelling. We have a clear bottom four. In a nice bit of symmetry, three of them were also three of the worst four teams 15 years ago (Cardinals, Raiders, Giants, who all went 4-12 that year along with 4-12 San Diego). If I had to rank which of these teams has the best chance to recover in 2019, it would be the Jets given their QB may improve drastically, and there is marginally more structure there than Arizona. For the Giants, they really just have to cut ties with Eli. The fact he may have played himself into starting in 2019 is just ridiculous.
Tier II - The "The end of the long night" Quadro
28.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-9 = 344-403)
27.) Jacksonville Jaguars (4-10 = 225-289)
26.) Detroit Lions (5-9 = 284-333)
25.) San Francisco 49ers (4-10 = 301-373)
These are prime spoilers for the last two weeks of the season. Tampa can't really spoil anything unless Dallas also loses Week 17. Detroit can really make life complicated for Minnesota, which given that game is in Detroit can easily happen. The Lions seem hapless on the road, but have beaten solid teams all year long at home, wreaking havoc on the NFC. The Jaguars can knock off Miami fully, and then maybe push the Texans out of the #2 seed (assuming Philadelphia doesn't do that again). The 49ers have two chances to repeat what they did to Seattle, with the chance to end the Bears dream of a bye, or maybe the Rams chance of a bye. In reality, the group in the lowest tier can play spoiler too, but let's be real.
Tier III - The "How did they win so many games?" Duo
24.) Buffalo Bills (5-9 = 215-333)
23.) Cincinnati Bengals (6-8 = 337-413)
The Bills have one of the worst point differentials, not helped by some truly lop-sided losses. In a way though, I want to commend them for squeezing out five wins, for having a solid defense, top-5 by DVOA, despite having limited talent. Sean McDermott has done a great job on that side of the ball. The offense is so limited, but they've even done well creating a weird scheme based on Josh Allen's running ability. The Bengals I can't really commend, but they've been decent with Driskell at QB. I don't think he's going to push Dalton, but he's a reasonable player.
Tier IV - The "Sad little .500 teams" Duo
22.) Miami Dolphins (7-7 = 295-374)
21.) Washington Redskins (7-7 = 265-310)
In theory, both these teams are alive. The Dolphins need a million things to break their way, but they can also go 9-7 fairly easily. I do wonder what happens with Adam Gase and Tannehill. It's clear there is a cap on their success, and while Gase can churn out 7-9 or 9-7 seasons in his sleep, they need a full restructuring. The Redskins don't, but man having to depend on Josh Johnson is so depressing. Their run probably ends this week with Tennessee, but that Jacksonville win probably spares Jay Gruden as it removes the chance of ending on a seven game losing streak.
Tier V - The "What the hell happened?" Duo
20.) Atlanta Falcons (5-9 = 356-381)
19.) Green Bay Packers (5-8-1 = 332-331)
The Falcons and Packers were betting favorites to make the playoffs - admittedly both as Wild Cards, but to see them both fall so spectacularly is something to behold. People have largely let the Falcons fall without much time spent examining their issues. A lot of that is probably the spate of injuries on defense, but they've been a huge disappointment, including their passing game slipping last few weeks (last week's game excepted). The Packers are a bit more bizarre. By point differential, they aren't too bad. By actual play, they are really bad. They will be a smart trendy pick next year if they can get a coordinator or play-caller that can rein in Rodgers a bit. It is a bit ironic that these are the exact same issues that ended the Mike Sherman era, when Favre stopped respecting the coach. Which of course led to the hiring of Mike McCarthy in the first place.
Tier VI - The "Probably not, but still somewhat alive" Trio
18.) Carolina Panthers (6-8 = 333-344)
17.) Cleveland Browns (6-7-1 = 309-348)
16.) Denver Broncos (6-8 = 306-299)
RIP the Panthers, the most surprising collapse I've seen. Of course, change like three plays, and they are 8-6 and a likely wild card team - be it the missed field goals against Detroit, converting the late TD against Cleveland or the DJ Moore fumble in the red zone against the Saints. I think they shut down Cam, and I'm getting the feeling they fire Ron Rivera, which I think is a mistake. For the Browns and Broncos, neither team is likely making the playoffs, and are going in opposite directions in 2019. The Broncos need their Baker Mayfield. Case Keenum is not the answer. For Baker, it will be so critical what happens to the coaching staff. It is hard to believe that the Browns have stumbled into magic with Gregg Williams and Freddie Kitchens, but the results more or less speak for themselves. They have one of the best offenses in the NFL since Kitchens replaced Hue/Haley. The Broncos are in an interesting position being in a tough division, with aging talent leading a team destined for 7-9 or 8-8.
Tier VII - The "If we can just get in...." Quadro
15.) Philadelphia Eagles (7-7 = 311-318)
14.) Tennessee Titans (8-6 = 268-254)
13.) Minnesota Vikings (7-6-1 = 323-308)
12.) Dallas Cowboys (8-6 = 276-269)
All of these teams have hopes of making it in. The Cowboys have a really good chance obviously, the Vikings have to win just one more game. But all that said, none of these teams are really that good. The Eagles can pretend Foles will recapture 2017, but there are issues with that OL and secondary that are not getting fixed. The Titans have a great defense, and it will come down likely to their Week 17 game agianst the Colts, but they've not beaten a Luck or Manning led Colts team since 2008. The Vikings are seemingly fixed, but it is hard to trust their jekyll & hyde nature. With Dallas, they are going to win the division unless they lose both games and either Philly or Washington win both, but I don't think Seattle, or any potential #5 seed, will fear that location. To be fair, their loss to the Colts was more about terrible 4th down luck than actual terrible play.
Tier VIII - The "They hope we don't get in...." Duo
11.) Seattle Seahawks (8-6 = 363-292)
10.) Indianapolis Colts (8-6 = 372-300)
Same record. Basically same point different (+71 vs. +72). Same seventh year QB having a brilliant season. The Seahawks and Colts are scary wild card teams. The Seahawks are probably making it, and more probably playing Dallas in the first round. Even in past year's the Seahawks peak as a wild card team has been the divisional round, but they have a high peak. The Colts may easily miss the playoffs, but this season has been a huge success. Frank Reich was a great hire. Eberflus might be even better - the one gift Josh McDaniels gave the Colts in his quick run atop the mountain. The alternative #6 seeds (Ravens/Steelers most likely) are scary as well, but the Colts are a terrifying team if you are New England or Houston in that #3 seed.
Tier IX - The "Old AFC Guard" Trio
9.) New England Patriots (9-5 = 374-310)
8.) Pittsburgh Steelers (8-5-1 = 384-316)
7.) Baltimore Ravens (8-6 = 341-253)
This year's AFC has a clear best three teams/ And none of the Patriots, Steelers or Ravens (who along with 'Team QBed by Peyton Manning' have represented the AFC in the Super Bowl each of the last 15 years) are one of those three. The Patriots are out of excuses. They may luck into the #2 seed if hte Texans slip up (basically what happened in 2013 as well, the last Patriots team that was this weak). They just lost to Pittsburgh in a game where they picked off Roethlisberger twice and held them to 17 points. They punted five straight drives against Pittsburgh. Speaking of Pitsburgh, they too can't feel too good about barely beating the Patriots despite holding them to 10 points. Neither team came out of that game looking good, except for the Steelers savings their season before they head to the Superdome. For the Ravens, I do wonder how long they can continue this smoke and mirrors run the ball show, but that defense continues to be great. This is the recipe of the team that got the #6 seed at 9-7 in 2009 and beat the Patriots the last time the Patriots didn't get a bye and didn't win 12 games.
Tier X - The "2008 contenders in 2018" Duo
6.) Houston Texans (10-4 = 352-281)
5.) Chicago Bears (10-4 = 383-264)
It's a bit unfair to call the Texans a 2008 contender, but both of these teams are built off of incredibly talented defenses, and skittery offenses with 2nd year QBs and nice playmakers. For the Texans I get the feeling Bill O'Brien is limiting his QB and weapons, while Trubisky limits Nagy's scheme. The defenses are great, the Texans more dominant at home when Watt and Clowney can truly doinate. Quietly, Watt has 14.5 sacks this year and has been the 2nd best defensive player in football. The Bears have to hope the Eddie Jackson injury isn't too serious, as they have a special defense going.
Tier XI - The "Big 4 Challengers" Quadro
4.) Los Angeles Rams (11-3 = 448-343)
3.) Los Angeles Chargers (11-3 = 395-298)
2.) Kansas City Chiefs (11-3 = 499-380)
1.) New Orleans Saints (12-2 = 459-292)
Let's put the Chargers aside for the moment - all I'll say about them is I hope to dear god Keenan Allen gets healthy as I want them 100% in the playoffs. For the other three, the big three teams of 2018, all have serious questions. The Chiefs defense continues to be a problem - but that offense is still special. They do miss Kareem Hunt in the screen game however, which puts more pressure on Conley and those other receivers. For the Rams, there are serious problems. With two winnable games to go, they should still get a bye, but that offense does not look right. Some teams have little dips (we'll get to another one in a second), but their defense is not good enough to survive a sustained offensive dip. For the Saints, I'm still thinking this offensive blip will get fixed, but this is four straight sub-par game from Brees and Co (coming right after scoring 45-51-48 in three straight games). Unlike the Rams, their defense has been spectacular, allowing them to go 3-1 in the low offensive point, and admittedly all of the last three were on the road, but I don't think a Chicago or Dallas will fear going into the dome after all.
Projecting the Playoffs
AFC
1.) Kansas City Chiefs = 13-3
2.) Houston Texans = 12-4
3.) New England Patriots = 11-5
4.) Baltimore Ravens = 10-6
5.) Los Angeles Chargers = 12-4
6.) Indianapolis Colts = 10-6
NFC
1.) New Orleans Saints = 13-3
2.) Los Angeles Rams = 13-3
3.) Chicago Bears = 11-5
4.) Dallas Cowboys = 9-7
5.) Minnesota Vikings = 9-6-1
6.) Seattle Seahawks = 9-7
Predicting the Awards
MVP:
1.) Patrick Mahomes
2.) Drew Brees
3.) Philip Rivers
After Brees's 4th straight off performance, I do think Mahomes has wrapped this up. Even if they lose to the Seahawks and the Chargers win the division, Mahomes is a good shot to beat Marino's old TD record at 48, with a shot at 50. I'm sorry, the consistent best unit this season was the Chiefs offense and he's the most important part. The way things are trending, I may bump Rivers up ahead of Brees. At the end, unless Mahomes ends poorly, we are in pure 'career achievement' area with Brees. Yes, I agree it is sad someone as great all-time as Brees is never won an MVP, but sadly he just was never the best QB in any one season.
OPOTY
1.) Patrick Mahomes
2.) Todd Gurley
3.) Adam Thielen
Again, guy is going to end up with 47-51 TDs. There's no way he doesn't win this award. Gurley has been a monster again, and while he won last season I still think he's one of the most dynamic players in the NFL. Theilen has been quieter the last few weeks, but will end up with a silly consistent all time season.
DPOTY
1.) Aaron Donald
2.) JJ Watt
3.) Eddie Jackson
Donald is a monster. There's no one really in his league as a palyer at the moment. The only guy in recent memory that was is the guy I think is #2 this year. I'm so happy JJ Watt has returned to prominence after two seasons in teh wilderness. I would love someone to do a breakdown if Donald is better now than Watt was from 2012-2015. I don't think eh was. Watt from that era was arguably the best defensive player ever. For Eddie Jackson, I just hope he gets healthy.
COTY
1.) Matt Nagy
2.) Frank Reich
3.) Anthony Lynn
I think if Frank Reich's Colts get to 10-6 and snag a wildcard he may get it steering the Colts from a 1-5 start (admittedly, he was the coach of the selfsame 1-5 Colts). Anthony Lynn will probably get dinged a big since he was there last year, and a lot of people liked the Chargers coming into the year, but in a world of everyone loving zany offensive minds, it is easy to forget Lynn's Chargers have gone 19-7 in their last 26 games. Nagy should get it, even if Vic Fangio is the biggest reason for their success. Nagy's taken a scatter-shot QB and mix of average and good parts into a fungible offense.
Looking Ahead to Next Week's Games
16.) Denver Broncos (6-8) @ Oakland Raiders (4-10) (MNF - ESPN)
15.) Green Bay Packers (5-8-1) @ New York Jets (4-10) (1:00 - FOX)
I call it "Bad vs. Bad" Monday and Sunday,
14.) Atlanta Falcons (5-9) @ Carolina Panthers (X-X) (1:00 - FOX)
13.) Cincinnati Bengals (6-8) @ Cleveland Browns (6-7-1) (1:00 - CBS)
12.) Jacksonville Jaguars (4-10) @ Miami Dolphins (7-7) (1:00 - CBS)
I call it "Essentially Bad vs. Bad" Sunday,
11.) Buffalo Bills (5-9) @ New England Patriots (9-5) (1:00 - CBS)
10.) New York Giants (5-9) @ Indianapolis Colts (8-6) (1:00 - FOX)
9.) Washington Redskins (7-7) @ Tennessee Titans (8-6) (Sat - NFLN)
8.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-9) @ Dallas Cowboys (8-6) (1:00 - FOX)
7.) Minnesota Vikings (7-6-1) @ Detroit Lions (5-9) (1:00 - FOX)
6.) Los Angeles Rams (11-3) @ Arizona Cardinals (3-11) (4:05 - FOX)
5.) Houston Texans (10-4) @ Philadelphia Eagles (7-7) (1:00 - CBS)
4.) Chicago Bears (10-4) @ San Francisco 49ers (4-10) (4:05 - FOX)
I call it "Holy Hell there are a lot of Good vs. Bad" Saturday and Sunday,
3.) Pittsburgh Steelers (8-5-1) @ New Orleans Saints (X-X) (4:25 - CBS)
2.) Baltimore Ravens (8-6) @ Los Angeles Chargers (11-3) (Sat - NFLN)
1.) Kansas City Chiefs (11-3) @ Seattle Seahawks (8-6) (SNF - NBC)
I call it "Finally some good games" Saturday and Sunday,
