Tier I - The "Separating Themselves From the Rest" Trio
32.) Arizona Cardinals (1-6 = 92-184)
31.) New York Giants (1-6 = 137-185)
30.) Buffalo Bills (2-5 = 81-175)
Almost halfway through the season, we are starting to see some stratification in the league, and to me these three teams have really distinguished themselves. The Cardinals 45-10 loss really highlighted how little energy this team has under Steve Wilks. The roster is still somewhat close to the one that hovered around .500 the last two years, but the infighting and checking-out has begun. The Giants are maybe on the precipice of a well-needed fire sale, a clear admission that the Eli era is over, and maybe should have ended during the last NFL draft. The Bills somehow have two wins, and came a Nathan Peterman pick-six away from maybe a third win, but they are so dreadful, having two losses where the score five or less points and give up 35 or more points. The defense is still talented but even there they've checked out.
Tier II - The "Something's Rotten By the Bay" Duo
29.) Oakland Raiders (1-5 = 110-176)
28.) San Francisco 49ers (1-6 = 158-218)
For eight straight seasons (2003-2010), neither team made the playoffs. We may be headed to a similar run of infamy now. The Raiders fire sale is under way, and it will all come down to what return they get on these five 1st round picks they have the next two years. To have a team potentially have three Top-15 picks will be crazy. For the 49ers, things can turn with the return of Jimmy G next year, and in reality that might give them a completely unexpected top-5 pick, but for 2018, this has been a disaster.
Tier III - The "Excitingly Bad" Duo
27.) Cleveland Browns (2-4-1 = 151-177)
26.) New York Jets (3-4 = 182-176)
Neither team is that good (the Jets still clinging with a positive point differential only due to the Detroit Week 1 game), but both have the nice shine of hope. The Browns could really have any conceivable record right now, and have only looked like the old 1-31 in 2016-17 Browns in one game (the loss to the Chargers). Mayfield needs to protect the ball better, but he's fearless and smart. Darnold is very much the same. Both defenses have good young players. Maybe, just maybe, in 2023-2025, this is the new Patriots vs. Colts. Stranger things have happened. For now, going 6-10 should be seen as a great sign of optimism. The most interesting part of each team will be seeing how Todd Bowles and Hue Jackson are judged if they do end up 6-10 (or 6-8-2 in the Browns case).
Tier IV - The "Annoyingly, Excitingly Bad" Trio
25.) Tennessee Titans (3-4 = 106-127)
24.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-3 = 167-196)
23.) Indianapolis Colts (2-5 = 189-185)
All three of these teams play exciting, close games where they loose because of turnovers or stupid mistakes - just like the Browns and Jets - but instead of a sheen of hope, they have teh stink of wasted opportunity. For the Titans and Buccaneers, we are in year five for Mariota and Jameis, with one playoff appearance and nary a 10-win season, and still tons of sacks and turnovers. For the Colts, last week was so maddening; they blew the Bills off the field. One more win, and somehow they would be right in the thick of the AFC South race. With their schedule, a late run to sneak a 9-7 division title isn't out of the question.
Tier V - The "Holy Fuck" Uno
22.) Jacksonville Jaguars (3-4 = 116-146)
What happened? Forget Bortles, he was always a guy who would randomly become trash again. What happened to that defense. Forget the infighting, that's some quality Rex Ryan Jets stuff, but the overall play has dropped, be it Campbell, or Ngokwae, or Fowler, or so many others apart from Jalen Ramsey. Keeping that level of defense from 2016 was always going to be tough, but seeing them fall into discord has been so much sadness. Again, this is the AFC South, so a 6-3 finish will be enough likely.
Tier VI - The "Staying Somewhat, Somehow Relevant" Quinto
21.) Atlanta Falcons (3-4 = 190-212)
20.) Chicago Bears (3-3 = 170-134)
19.) Denver Broncos (3-4 = 165-164)
18.) Detroit Lions (3-3 = 157-158)
17.) Miami Dolphins (4-3 = 151-177)
We are far enough into the season that there is stratification, but very likely one if not two of the teams in this group will sneak their way in. Starting from the bottom, we have the league's worst 4-3 team, and the top has the league's 2nd best 3-4 team. I'm glad the Dolphins are no longer tied for the AFC East lead. It's always nice getting some normalcy back They will have a really interesting decision coming up on Tannehill, who still cannot stay healthy. The Falcons should be better - it was nice to finally see their pass rush from last year reappear. The Bears got the benefit of three Pats turnovers and weren't really all that close. Trubisky is quickly turning into Bortles 2.0. The Broncos might actually be a sneaky wild card contender. With Keenum,the offfense is decent. They've played a really tough schedule, and barely lost to the Rams and Chiefs. Detroit has a similar interesting resume, beating the Packers and Patriots easily. Of course, both teams lost badly to the Jets, who could end up being a super spoiler.
Tier VII - The "Fox May Get Their Wish" Trio
16.) Dallas Cowboys (3-4 = 140-123)
15.) Philadelphia Eagles (3-4 = 154-138)
14.) Seattle Seahawks (3-3 = 143-117)
I have no idea what the Cowboys are doing, other than they are playing back the 2008 season, when a surprisingly slow start made them give up a 1st round pick for Roy Williams, who did nothing in Dallas. This is not a team that was one Amari Cooper away - even in a weak NFC East. Speaking of the NFC East, I have no idea what is going on with the Eagles. That Titans loss will crush them down the road. The talent is still there. They can be dominant, like the seven quarters between the Giants game and the 3rd quarter against Carolina. Carson Wentz looks OK. The defensive line is great. I have to think this turns around. For Seattle, I forgot they had three losses and not two. Their team is a testament to Russell Wilson and Pete Carroll's defensive coaching ability. The talent is not there, but those two are. If I'm FOX, I'm praying one of these three sneak their way in, and I think one will.
Tier VIII - The "CBS's Wishes Are Screwed" Trio
13.) Houston Texans (4-3 = 155-144)
12.) Cincinnati Bengals (4-3 = 184-203)
11.) Pittsburgh Steelers (3-2-1 = 171-154)
Sadly for CBS, two of these three will likely get in, including potentially a third average, annoying 9-7 AFC South Winning Texans team in three years. Quick notes on them, it has been great watching a healthy JJ Watt and Clowney playing together. They are incredibly top heavy, but that might be enough. The Bengals got mauled, but every team will have a terrible game now and then. The offense has still done well since Bill Lazor took over last year. They need more from Michael Johnson and the other non-Atkins D-Lineman. The Steelers went on the bye and skyrocketed to first place. I still think there are serious issues with this team, particularly the Brown-Roethlisberger connection and the continued issue of that defense to cover anyone when not bringing pressure.
Tier IX - The " Boringly Competent" Trio
10.) Washington Redskins (4-2 = 126-101)
9.) Green Bay Packers (3-2-1 = 148-144)
8.) Baltimore Ravens (4-3 = 176-101)
The Redskins are going to fly to the least fun 10-6 division title. Alex Smith is perfectly competent, that defense has good, solid players. Adrian Peterson has been a nice story. They will get blasted in the Wild Card round. The Packers have like four good players, but I am interested to see how Mike Pettine's defense adapts through the season. At the end, none of it will matter as they still have Rodgers. For the Ravens, that defense is amazing. They are on pace to give up 230 points, which would be the fewest since 2011, in a year that is going to smash the scoring record overall. I love watching John Brown. I just fear that their schedule is too tough that 10-6 may be their ceiling even if they deserve better.
Tier X - The "Less Boringly Competent" Trio
7.) Los Angeles Chargers (5-2 = 195-163)
6.) Carolina Panthers (4-2 = 142-131)
5.) Minnesota Vikings (4-2-1 = 177-165)
The Chargers are 5-2, tied with New England for 2nd in the AFC, with the best offense aside from KC, and a defense that should get better with Bosa returning. They might be one of the scarier wild card teams since the Ravens and Steelers went 12-4 as 2nd place teams back-to-back years. The Panthers probably should be 5-1 if DJ Moore didn't fumble twice against Washington, with back-to-back road wins. Their schedule starts to get easier, and they just need to stay in striking distance of New Orleans. It is nice to see the defense playing two solid games in a row when Thomas Davis got back. The Vikings will end up having a 10-5-1 record with maybe the least explicable game of the year (that loss to Buffalo). I'm annoyed that their defense keeps giving up garbage time TDs to make them numbers look worse than they actually are.
Tier XI - The "Super Bowl No One Wants, But We'll Get" Duo
4.) New England Patriots (5-2 = 214-179)
3.) New Orleans Saints (5-1 = 204-163)
OK, some people may want it, and Brees vs. Brady would probably set ratings records, but let's move on. At some point, these guys will be gone, and the future will be in Mahomes's, Goff's and Wentz's hands. We should start moving to that period now. No one wants this, right? No one.
Tier XII - The "Super Bowl We All Deserve" Duo
2.) Kansas City Chiefs (6-1 = 260-182)
1.) Los Angeles Rams (7-0 = 235-128)
We all want this - and we will get it in Week 11 in Mexico City (Ram's home game). This would be an amazing Super Bowl. For as good as the Chiefs are on offense, the Rams aren't that much worse, even when seemingly sleepwalking through games. Their defensive line is starting to dominate - probably just took a while to fully adapt to Wade Phillips's system. Both teams are great. I can't wait to watch this in four weeks, and if this is the Super Bowl we get, it would be a fantastic, fantastic game. Of course, we won't get it, and get Brady vs. Brees.
Looking Ahead to Next Week's Games:
Byes: Atlanta Falcons (3-4), Dallas Cowboys (3-4), Tennessee Titans (3-4), Los Angeles Chargers (5-2)
14.) San Francisco 49ers (1-6) @ Arizona Cardinals (1-6) (4:25 - FOX)
13.) New England Patriots (5-2) @ Buffalo Bills (2-5) (MNF - ESPN)
12.) Indianapolis Colts (2-5) @ Oakland Raiders (1-6) (4:05 - CBS)
I call it "Why Watch" Sunday and Monday,
11.) Washington Redskins (4-2) @ New York Giants (1-6) (1:00 - FOX)
10.) New York Jets (3-4) @ Chicago Bears (3-3) (1:00 - CBS)
9.) Cleveland Browns (2-4-1) @ Pittsburgh Steelers (3-2-1) (1:00 - CBS)
I call it "Seriously, Why Watch?" Sunday
8.) Miami Dolphins (4-3) @ Houston Texans (4-3) (TNF - FOX)
7.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-3) @ Cincinnati Bengals (4-3) (1;00 - FOX)
I call it "Separating the bad 4-3 from the good 4-3" Thursday & Sunday,
6.) Philadelphia Eagles (3-4) @ Jacksonville Jaguars (3-4) (9:30 - NFLN)
5.) SEattle Seahawks (3-3) @ Detroit Lions (3-3) (1:00 - FOX)
I call it "The losers are really in trouble" Sunday
4.) Denver Broncos (3-4) @ Kansas City Chiefs (6-1) (1:00 - CBS)
3.) Baltimore Ravens (4-3) @ Carolina Panthers (4-2) (1;00 - CBS)
I call it "The winners are in really good shape" Sunday,
2.) Green Bay Packers (3-2-1) @ Los Angeles Rangers (7-0) (4:25 - FOX)
1.) New Orleans Saints (5-1) @ Minnesota Vikings (4-2-1) (SNF - NBC)
I call it "NFC Divisional Round Preview?" Sunday
32.) Arizona Cardinals (1-6 = 92-184)
31.) New York Giants (1-6 = 137-185)
30.) Buffalo Bills (2-5 = 81-175)
Almost halfway through the season, we are starting to see some stratification in the league, and to me these three teams have really distinguished themselves. The Cardinals 45-10 loss really highlighted how little energy this team has under Steve Wilks. The roster is still somewhat close to the one that hovered around .500 the last two years, but the infighting and checking-out has begun. The Giants are maybe on the precipice of a well-needed fire sale, a clear admission that the Eli era is over, and maybe should have ended during the last NFL draft. The Bills somehow have two wins, and came a Nathan Peterman pick-six away from maybe a third win, but they are so dreadful, having two losses where the score five or less points and give up 35 or more points. The defense is still talented but even there they've checked out.
Tier II - The "Something's Rotten By the Bay" Duo
29.) Oakland Raiders (1-5 = 110-176)
28.) San Francisco 49ers (1-6 = 158-218)
For eight straight seasons (2003-2010), neither team made the playoffs. We may be headed to a similar run of infamy now. The Raiders fire sale is under way, and it will all come down to what return they get on these five 1st round picks they have the next two years. To have a team potentially have three Top-15 picks will be crazy. For the 49ers, things can turn with the return of Jimmy G next year, and in reality that might give them a completely unexpected top-5 pick, but for 2018, this has been a disaster.
Tier III - The "Excitingly Bad" Duo
27.) Cleveland Browns (2-4-1 = 151-177)
26.) New York Jets (3-4 = 182-176)
Neither team is that good (the Jets still clinging with a positive point differential only due to the Detroit Week 1 game), but both have the nice shine of hope. The Browns could really have any conceivable record right now, and have only looked like the old 1-31 in 2016-17 Browns in one game (the loss to the Chargers). Mayfield needs to protect the ball better, but he's fearless and smart. Darnold is very much the same. Both defenses have good young players. Maybe, just maybe, in 2023-2025, this is the new Patriots vs. Colts. Stranger things have happened. For now, going 6-10 should be seen as a great sign of optimism. The most interesting part of each team will be seeing how Todd Bowles and Hue Jackson are judged if they do end up 6-10 (or 6-8-2 in the Browns case).
Tier IV - The "Annoyingly, Excitingly Bad" Trio
25.) Tennessee Titans (3-4 = 106-127)
24.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-3 = 167-196)
23.) Indianapolis Colts (2-5 = 189-185)
All three of these teams play exciting, close games where they loose because of turnovers or stupid mistakes - just like the Browns and Jets - but instead of a sheen of hope, they have teh stink of wasted opportunity. For the Titans and Buccaneers, we are in year five for Mariota and Jameis, with one playoff appearance and nary a 10-win season, and still tons of sacks and turnovers. For the Colts, last week was so maddening; they blew the Bills off the field. One more win, and somehow they would be right in the thick of the AFC South race. With their schedule, a late run to sneak a 9-7 division title isn't out of the question.
Tier V - The "Holy Fuck" Uno
22.) Jacksonville Jaguars (3-4 = 116-146)
What happened? Forget Bortles, he was always a guy who would randomly become trash again. What happened to that defense. Forget the infighting, that's some quality Rex Ryan Jets stuff, but the overall play has dropped, be it Campbell, or Ngokwae, or Fowler, or so many others apart from Jalen Ramsey. Keeping that level of defense from 2016 was always going to be tough, but seeing them fall into discord has been so much sadness. Again, this is the AFC South, so a 6-3 finish will be enough likely.
Tier VI - The "Staying Somewhat, Somehow Relevant" Quinto
21.) Atlanta Falcons (3-4 = 190-212)
20.) Chicago Bears (3-3 = 170-134)
19.) Denver Broncos (3-4 = 165-164)
18.) Detroit Lions (3-3 = 157-158)
17.) Miami Dolphins (4-3 = 151-177)
We are far enough into the season that there is stratification, but very likely one if not two of the teams in this group will sneak their way in. Starting from the bottom, we have the league's worst 4-3 team, and the top has the league's 2nd best 3-4 team. I'm glad the Dolphins are no longer tied for the AFC East lead. It's always nice getting some normalcy back They will have a really interesting decision coming up on Tannehill, who still cannot stay healthy. The Falcons should be better - it was nice to finally see their pass rush from last year reappear. The Bears got the benefit of three Pats turnovers and weren't really all that close. Trubisky is quickly turning into Bortles 2.0. The Broncos might actually be a sneaky wild card contender. With Keenum,the offfense is decent. They've played a really tough schedule, and barely lost to the Rams and Chiefs. Detroit has a similar interesting resume, beating the Packers and Patriots easily. Of course, both teams lost badly to the Jets, who could end up being a super spoiler.
Tier VII - The "Fox May Get Their Wish" Trio
16.) Dallas Cowboys (3-4 = 140-123)
15.) Philadelphia Eagles (3-4 = 154-138)
14.) Seattle Seahawks (3-3 = 143-117)
I have no idea what the Cowboys are doing, other than they are playing back the 2008 season, when a surprisingly slow start made them give up a 1st round pick for Roy Williams, who did nothing in Dallas. This is not a team that was one Amari Cooper away - even in a weak NFC East. Speaking of the NFC East, I have no idea what is going on with the Eagles. That Titans loss will crush them down the road. The talent is still there. They can be dominant, like the seven quarters between the Giants game and the 3rd quarter against Carolina. Carson Wentz looks OK. The defensive line is great. I have to think this turns around. For Seattle, I forgot they had three losses and not two. Their team is a testament to Russell Wilson and Pete Carroll's defensive coaching ability. The talent is not there, but those two are. If I'm FOX, I'm praying one of these three sneak their way in, and I think one will.
Tier VIII - The "CBS's Wishes Are Screwed" Trio
13.) Houston Texans (4-3 = 155-144)
12.) Cincinnati Bengals (4-3 = 184-203)
11.) Pittsburgh Steelers (3-2-1 = 171-154)
Sadly for CBS, two of these three will likely get in, including potentially a third average, annoying 9-7 AFC South Winning Texans team in three years. Quick notes on them, it has been great watching a healthy JJ Watt and Clowney playing together. They are incredibly top heavy, but that might be enough. The Bengals got mauled, but every team will have a terrible game now and then. The offense has still done well since Bill Lazor took over last year. They need more from Michael Johnson and the other non-Atkins D-Lineman. The Steelers went on the bye and skyrocketed to first place. I still think there are serious issues with this team, particularly the Brown-Roethlisberger connection and the continued issue of that defense to cover anyone when not bringing pressure.
Tier IX - The " Boringly Competent" Trio
10.) Washington Redskins (4-2 = 126-101)
9.) Green Bay Packers (3-2-1 = 148-144)
8.) Baltimore Ravens (4-3 = 176-101)
The Redskins are going to fly to the least fun 10-6 division title. Alex Smith is perfectly competent, that defense has good, solid players. Adrian Peterson has been a nice story. They will get blasted in the Wild Card round. The Packers have like four good players, but I am interested to see how Mike Pettine's defense adapts through the season. At the end, none of it will matter as they still have Rodgers. For the Ravens, that defense is amazing. They are on pace to give up 230 points, which would be the fewest since 2011, in a year that is going to smash the scoring record overall. I love watching John Brown. I just fear that their schedule is too tough that 10-6 may be their ceiling even if they deserve better.
Tier X - The "Less Boringly Competent" Trio
7.) Los Angeles Chargers (5-2 = 195-163)
6.) Carolina Panthers (4-2 = 142-131)
5.) Minnesota Vikings (4-2-1 = 177-165)
The Chargers are 5-2, tied with New England for 2nd in the AFC, with the best offense aside from KC, and a defense that should get better with Bosa returning. They might be one of the scarier wild card teams since the Ravens and Steelers went 12-4 as 2nd place teams back-to-back years. The Panthers probably should be 5-1 if DJ Moore didn't fumble twice against Washington, with back-to-back road wins. Their schedule starts to get easier, and they just need to stay in striking distance of New Orleans. It is nice to see the defense playing two solid games in a row when Thomas Davis got back. The Vikings will end up having a 10-5-1 record with maybe the least explicable game of the year (that loss to Buffalo). I'm annoyed that their defense keeps giving up garbage time TDs to make them numbers look worse than they actually are.
Tier XI - The "Super Bowl No One Wants, But We'll Get" Duo
4.) New England Patriots (5-2 = 214-179)
3.) New Orleans Saints (5-1 = 204-163)
OK, some people may want it, and Brees vs. Brady would probably set ratings records, but let's move on. At some point, these guys will be gone, and the future will be in Mahomes's, Goff's and Wentz's hands. We should start moving to that period now. No one wants this, right? No one.
Tier XII - The "Super Bowl We All Deserve" Duo
2.) Kansas City Chiefs (6-1 = 260-182)
1.) Los Angeles Rams (7-0 = 235-128)
We all want this - and we will get it in Week 11 in Mexico City (Ram's home game). This would be an amazing Super Bowl. For as good as the Chiefs are on offense, the Rams aren't that much worse, even when seemingly sleepwalking through games. Their defensive line is starting to dominate - probably just took a while to fully adapt to Wade Phillips's system. Both teams are great. I can't wait to watch this in four weeks, and if this is the Super Bowl we get, it would be a fantastic, fantastic game. Of course, we won't get it, and get Brady vs. Brees.
Looking Ahead to Next Week's Games:
Byes: Atlanta Falcons (3-4), Dallas Cowboys (3-4), Tennessee Titans (3-4), Los Angeles Chargers (5-2)
14.) San Francisco 49ers (1-6) @ Arizona Cardinals (1-6) (4:25 - FOX)
13.) New England Patriots (5-2) @ Buffalo Bills (2-5) (MNF - ESPN)
12.) Indianapolis Colts (2-5) @ Oakland Raiders (1-6) (4:05 - CBS)
I call it "Why Watch" Sunday and Monday,
11.) Washington Redskins (4-2) @ New York Giants (1-6) (1:00 - FOX)
10.) New York Jets (3-4) @ Chicago Bears (3-3) (1:00 - CBS)
9.) Cleveland Browns (2-4-1) @ Pittsburgh Steelers (3-2-1) (1:00 - CBS)
I call it "Seriously, Why Watch?" Sunday
8.) Miami Dolphins (4-3) @ Houston Texans (4-3) (TNF - FOX)
7.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-3) @ Cincinnati Bengals (4-3) (1;00 - FOX)
I call it "Separating the bad 4-3 from the good 4-3" Thursday & Sunday,
6.) Philadelphia Eagles (3-4) @ Jacksonville Jaguars (3-4) (9:30 - NFLN)
5.) SEattle Seahawks (3-3) @ Detroit Lions (3-3) (1:00 - FOX)
I call it "The losers are really in trouble" Sunday
4.) Denver Broncos (3-4) @ Kansas City Chiefs (6-1) (1:00 - CBS)
3.) Baltimore Ravens (4-3) @ Carolina Panthers (4-2) (1;00 - CBS)
I call it "The winners are in really good shape" Sunday,
2.) Green Bay Packers (3-2-1) @ Los Angeles Rangers (7-0) (4:25 - FOX)
1.) New Orleans Saints (5-1) @ Minnesota Vikings (4-2-1) (SNF - NBC)
I call it "NFC Divisional Round Preview?" Sunday
