Lounging Pass: NFL 2018 - Week 6 Power Rankings & The Rest

Tier I – The Dregs of the League Quinto

32.) San Francisco 49ers (1-4 = 118-146)

31.) Buffalo Bills (2-3 = 63-118)

30.) Arizona Cardinals (1-4 = 65-112)

29.) New York Giants (1-4 = 104-128)

28.) Denver Broncos (2-3 = 100-131)

I don’t know if Week 5 is the earliest to have all teams have at least one win, which is now true after Arizona beat San Francisco, but it was tough at this point of the season to make clear differentiation – which is supposed to be the case. These teams aren’t that far apart yet. Anyway, the 49ers are a decent team without a QB, which applies to most of the teams in this group (though in the Bills and Cardinals cases, maybe that changes as Rosen & Allen develop). The Giants are probably a few weeks away from really ruing their passed over chance to get a new QB. The Broncos have a QB who has been decent this year, and is not tied long term, which is nice, but the Broncos also are quickly losing the defense that made them so great previously. Giving up 323 yards rushing is just absurd.

Tier II – Maybe one of them can make a run Quarto

27.) Oakland Raiders (1-4 = 107-149)

26.) Indianapolis Colts (1-4 = 118-138)

25.) Cleveland Browns (2-2-1 = 114-113)

24.) Atlanta Falcons (1-4 = 118-146)

Look, these teams probably won’t make a run, but I wouldn’t be too shocked if one does – yes, including the Raiders an Colts, who at least have settled QBs who have played reasonably well. In David Carr’s case, it is more just not throwing interceptions as much, as all his other numbers have been fine. The Colts have let Luck throw more, but in reality just need more health from key guys, like a quick return from TY Hilton. The Browns could be 5-0, but they could also be 0-5, so 2-2-1 is perfect, and the team with Baker Mayfield should be competitive, but in what will likely be the NFL’s best division. The Falcons are a total shock. Obviously, the defense being so injured is a tough break; their offense has to score 28+ to win games. Matt Ryan has to be his MVP level to get them to 8-8. Even with the injuries, they have enough talent on defense to get better, especially if Vic Beasley, Jr. rediscovers his 2016 form.

Tier III – Consistently Frisky Trio

23.) New York Jets (2-3 = 123-105)

22.) Dallas Cowboys (2-3 = 83-96)

21.) Houston Texans (2-3 = 115-124)

I don’t think any of these teams will make the playoffs, but they are all good enough to sneak in or at least spoil a few seasons. The Jets have a strange, purely un-Jets-like, boom or bust offense both running and passing, but their defense has been able to limit chunk plays on their end. Their competitiveness this season is shining more light on Todd Bowles’s clock management issues, sadly, as I still think he is a very good coach. The Cowboys also have good coaches, but now mostly only on defense, as their defense has been one of the better ones in the NFL, with guys like Van Der Esche and Jaylon Smith breaking out. If only the offense could show any creativity – the desolation of their OL has been tough to watch. The Texans have so much talent, but I really question both Bill O’Brien’s playcalling, and DesShaun Watson comfortability in his return from the ACL injury. What has been amazing to watch, though, is JJ Watt’s return from his own injury woes the last two years. He has been incredibly good so far, and having him and Clowney both healthy for the first time since 2016 early season is really exciting to watch.

Tier IV – Decent starts but can it last Trio

20.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-2 = 112-139)

19.) Detroit Lions (2-3 = 125-137)

18.) Miami Dolphins (3-2 = 99-117)

All three teams have been fairly good through five weeks. Of course, they’ve done so in opposite ways. The two Florida teams started 2-0 and 3-0 respectively, before flailing their way back to .500, especially brutal for Miami, who played two AFC leaders on the road, and lost 38-7 and then 27-17 after leading 17-0. The Dolphins are a classic team that will go 9-7 or 10-6 but go 1-6 against playoff teams. The Buccaneers are, to some degree, the reverse, having given the Saints their only loss, but then also the team with probably the single worst performance of the year. It will be interesting to see if Jamies can provide anything different, as the Fitzpatrick-led Bucs were the same as the Winston-led Bucs: high highs, and low lows. The Lions beat New England easily. They beat Green Bay easily. They probably should have beaten Dallas. They also then lost convincingly to the Jets and 49ers. I have no idea what resume that equates to. The offense has all weapons and is getting good OL play. The defense needs to step up, especially their DL.

Tier V – The Teams that will stay alive far too long Duo

17.) Washington Redskins (2-2 = 83-87)

16.) Tennessee Titans (3-2 = 87-86)

Even more so than the Dolphins, these are the two teams that to me seem most likely to go 10-6 without ever really impressing. The Redskins have two awful losses but also two good wins. The Titans have no good losses or wins – even the OT win over Philadelphia doesn’t seem as impressive. Both teams have QBs with clear ceilings in ability. Both defenses rely fully on their DL to create pressure, and if they are forced to blitz, their defenses quickly unravel. Again, they are good enough to sneak in, but no one really wants that.

Tier VI – The Is This The World We Created Quinto

15.) Seattle Seahawks (2-3 = 116-114)

14.) Green Bay Packers (2-2-1 = 115-114)

13.) Pittsburgh Steelers (2-2-1 = 143-133)

12.) Philadelphia Eagles (2-3 = 103-104)

11.) Minnesota Vikings (2-2-1 = 113-131)

These five teams for me are interesting to group together. The Seahawks were a great team as recently as 2016. The Packers and Steelers both made it to their respective Conference Championship Games in 2016. The Eagles and Vikings played in the NFC Championship Game last year. All of these teams have some national cache. None have been that good. The Seahawks have no real impressive wins, but their defense has been surprisingly good even as the whole LOB has gone. The Steelers showed against Atlanta what peak Steelers can be, but at this point there is no real assurance that will show up every year. The Eagles are still slow-playing Carson Wentz, but they’ve had two close losses, and are probably deserving of 3-2 at this point, and luckily for them the NFC East is terrible. The Vikings results have all been explainable with one glaring exception: that ridiculous Bills game. Outside of that, tying at Lambeau and losing but playing well at the Rams are not bad results. What is disconcerting is their defensive flaws so far. Any of these teams can still make it. Some like the Eagles and Vikings are just half-game worse than their division leaders. But this is a brave new world where none of these previous playoff mainstays (or, with the Eagles, the team that set the world on fire last year) are locks to make it back.

Tier VII – Defense First in an Offense World Trio

10.) Jacksonville Jaguars (3-2 = 87-86)

9.) Chicago Bears (3-1 = 111-65)

8.) Baltimore Ravens (3-2 = 132-77)

Defenses quietly dominated 2017, the lowest scoring and lowest-gained yardage season since the 2011 lockout. Then the Super Bowl happened, the game with the most combined yards of any game in the Super Bowl era, and that re-set the world. Ever since, offense has taken over, with this year going way above even the 2016 high. Then we get these three teams. All defense first. All with shaky QBs who have had moments (Bortles: the Pats win; Trubisky: 5 TDs in a half; Flacco: The wins this year), all with defenses that are good enough to maybe still compete. The Ravens still have the highest upside, and losing to the Browns in OT may not be that damning a result in 2018 as it would have been the last few years. The Bears are statistically a very good team, but watching Trubisky it is hard to really believe he can more often be closer to the 6-TD guy. With the Jags, I have no clue, other than maybe not having Fournette was not going to unlock some secret consistently competent Blake Bortles to appear.

Tier VIII – Still Chugging Along Trio

7.) Los Angeles Chargers (3-2 = 137-130)

6.) Carolina Panthers (3-1 = 104-91)

5.) New England Patriots (3-2 = 133-108)

I was surprised to see the Chargers were 3-2 and not 2-3, I feel like mentally they lost one additional game, but overall they’ve steadied into the team we all thought they could be after the 0-2 start. The defense still really needs Joey Bosa back healthy at midseason, but for now the offense has picked up the pace. The Panthers are just humming along at 3-1, though the loss to the Falcons doesn’t look so great now. What is interesting is they are succeeding far more on offense, with their usually great defense being a bit shaky so far. I don’t know if that will last, but it would be nice for Short, Keuchly and Co, to have a kick-ass game again. With the Pats, they stay the Pats, though I think just as people were too quick to say they were dead after the 1-2 start, they may be too quick to say everything is back on line after a 2-0 run against two bad teams.

Tier IX – Somehow, Someway, 4-1 Duo

4.) Cincinnati Bengals (4-1 = 153-130)

3.) New Orleans Saints (4-1 = 180-140)

The Bengals 4-1 is more impressive than the Saints 4-1, is their only loss was to a team that is 3-1 (the Bucs are a crap 2-2). The Bengals have been good on both side of the ball, with Andy Dalton having a steady year, AJ Green being healthy, and the OL taking a step up after faltering the last couple seasons. For the Saints, that MNF game was a nostalgic reminder of how good they can be – especially at home, especially in primetime. The 2009-2013 Saints used to routinely do that type of thing at home in prime-time. I don’t know how sustainable that performance can be, mostly on the defensive side, but after that 2014-2016 Saints Era start (the 48 points allowed to Tampa) in Week 1, it has been good to see the real version get back.

Tier X – The Undefeateds Duo

2.) Kansas City Chiefs (5-0 = 175-129)

1.) Los Angeles Rams (5-0 = 173-98)

The two undefeated teams are also the two best teams. Of course, it should be noted the Chiefs were right here at 5-0 last year as well, then proceeded to go 1-6 before rescuing their season to slip into the playoffs. While it seems so far away the possibility that the same will happen this year, it should remain as a caution that overly scheme-based offenses can get figured out, even if it takes a while. This week is such a great test for them against New England. For the Rams, they keep chugging along, though the last two games are reminders that teams can play with them at times. No team was going to run of 16 straight no-doubt wins, but giving up 30+ points in back-to-back games is disconcerting. It is nice though having a clear best and clear second best through five games in each conference.

Looking Ahead to Next Week’s Games

Byes: Detroit Lions (2-3), New Orleans Saints (4-1)

15.) Indianapolis Colts (1-4) @ New York Jets (2-3) (1:00 – CBS)

14.) Arizona Cardinals (1-4) @ Minnesota Vikings (2-2-1) (1:00 – FOX)

13.) Los Angeles Rams (5-0) @ Denver Broncos (2-3) (4:05 – FOX)

12.) Buffalo Bills (2-3) @ Houston Texans (2-3) (1:00 – CBS)

11.) Seattle Seahawks (2-3) @ Oakland Raiders (1-4) (1:00 – FOX)

10.) Philadelphia Eagles (2-3) @ New York Giants (1-4) (TNF – FOX)

9.) San Francisco 49ers (1-4) @ Green Bay Packers (2-2-1) (MNF – ESPN)

8.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-2) @ Atlanta Falcons (1-4) (1:00 – FOX)

7.) Baltimore Ravens (3-2) @ Tennessee Titans (3-2) (4:25 – FOX)

6.) Chicago Bears (3-1) @ Miami Dolphins (3-2) (1:00 – FOX)