(A1) Uruguay vs. (B2) Portugal
I fear this game will be a long 120 minute slog, a type of game that both sides seem to want to make every game. For Portugal, it is a way to play when you have to hide the fact that the only player with much offensive creativity is Ronaldo. For Uruguay, it is somewhat the same, but also where their strengths lie with Godin, Muslera and Co. I'll go for Portugal in PKs, but can easily see this go the other way. I'll be optimistic and say each side gets a goal in the 90 minutes, but I have a harrowing feeling we're in for 0-0 - something that happened just once in the group stage.
Portugal def Uruguay 1-1 (on PKs)
(C1) France vs. (D2) Argentina
If the France we all expected to show up in this World Cup does, they should win easily. If the France that has showed up in the World Cup does, they should be favorites, but it will get tricky. To me, the best move France could make is sit back and let Argentina have the ball. Given their team, France should be deadly on the counter, especially against a slow, porous Argentina defense. Argentina also can get a bit aimless if they have possession but aren't finding space. I do think that the France we all expected to show up will do so, and get the win here, potentially big as well.
France def Argentina 3-1
(E1) Brazil vs (F2) Mexico
This should be a great game, and Mexico has a habit of playing Brazil very well (case in point the 2012 Olympics, which Brazil took seriously enough to play most of their top players). My worry is Mexico has gotten progressively worse in the tournament, and while they weren't as bad as the 3-0 score against Sweden, they looked tired. This is not a deep team, playing a collection of 15 or so guys. They run a lot and counter a lot, which is likely to happen here as well. Ultimately, I think that does it for them. They deserve better than a 7th successive Round of 16 exit, but I don't see how it doesn't happen against a Brazil team that seems to be hitting their stride.
Brazil def Mexico 2-1
(G1) Belgium vs (H2) Japan
I get why the media was so into the idea that Belgium and England would rather lose their last game than win it, to enter the ostensibly easier half of the draw. The problem with that logic, is while Belgium is on the harder half, they also have the significantly easier (to me at least) Round of 16 game. Japan has played well, but probably should not be here with Senegal here instead. Belgium has been great so far, finally playing up to their potential - I don't think it ends yet. We can start worrying about the tougher half of the draw next match.
Belgium def Japan 2-0
(B1) Spain vs (A2) Russia
I get it was fun to see Russia get humbled in their last game, but overall I've found them, and their fans, great and I do hope they put up a good show. Given that Spain hasn't impressed even in their win over Morocco, I can easily see Russia hanging with them. I do think there will be some more freedom for Spain having navitaged through the group stage. My only real hope is that Russia scores a goal; I want to see that stadium explode when they score, even if it ultimately is a fruitless effort.
Spain def Russia 2-1
(D1) Croatia vs (C2) Denmark
Croatia to me was the best team of the group stage; either them or Belgium. Their midfield can just dominate teams, and I think the same will happen against Denmark, a top heavy team who probably should not be here if Peru had even average finishing. This might be, wen you consider form of the teams, the most one-sided game we'll get.
Croatia def Denmark 2-0
(F1) Sweden vs (E2) Switzerland
I have no idea about this game. Both teams would rather be without the ball, but I do think Switzerland can do better than Sweden if forced to retain possession. Sweden will depend on set pieces and countering, but I like Switzerland's ability to limit chances and the break. To be honest, I have no idea what I'm saying, but I don't want to pick all Group Winners.
Switzerland def Sweden 1-1 (on PKs)
(H1) Colombia vs (G2) England
Part II of why the England intentionally not trying to win might have been shortsighted: Colombia is really good. They may have won all three games had they not had the (well deserved) handball four minutes into their opening game. If James misses the game, I'll probably lean slightly towards England, but even then not by much. Colombia is a great side, and I think people overreacted to England's 6-1 win that had multiple penalties, atrocious set play defending, and of course Kane's third goal that was a lucky deflection. Aside from that, they nearly drew with Tunisia and we can throw out the last gmae. I think this will be the most open game - and I think Colombia knocks England out, rendering the decision to settle for the 'weaker half' moot.
Colombia def England 3-2
If these are right, it would set-up a QF slate of:
(C1) France vs (B2) Portugal
(E1) Brazil vs (G1) Belgium
(B1) Spain vs (D1) Croatia
(E2) Switzerland vs (H1) Colombia
That would be three great games, and one not so great game, but still could set-up some mouth-watering Semifinals.
I fear this game will be a long 120 minute slog, a type of game that both sides seem to want to make every game. For Portugal, it is a way to play when you have to hide the fact that the only player with much offensive creativity is Ronaldo. For Uruguay, it is somewhat the same, but also where their strengths lie with Godin, Muslera and Co. I'll go for Portugal in PKs, but can easily see this go the other way. I'll be optimistic and say each side gets a goal in the 90 minutes, but I have a harrowing feeling we're in for 0-0 - something that happened just once in the group stage.
Portugal def Uruguay 1-1 (on PKs)
(C1) France vs. (D2) Argentina
If the France we all expected to show up in this World Cup does, they should win easily. If the France that has showed up in the World Cup does, they should be favorites, but it will get tricky. To me, the best move France could make is sit back and let Argentina have the ball. Given their team, France should be deadly on the counter, especially against a slow, porous Argentina defense. Argentina also can get a bit aimless if they have possession but aren't finding space. I do think that the France we all expected to show up will do so, and get the win here, potentially big as well.
France def Argentina 3-1
(E1) Brazil vs (F2) Mexico
This should be a great game, and Mexico has a habit of playing Brazil very well (case in point the 2012 Olympics, which Brazil took seriously enough to play most of their top players). My worry is Mexico has gotten progressively worse in the tournament, and while they weren't as bad as the 3-0 score against Sweden, they looked tired. This is not a deep team, playing a collection of 15 or so guys. They run a lot and counter a lot, which is likely to happen here as well. Ultimately, I think that does it for them. They deserve better than a 7th successive Round of 16 exit, but I don't see how it doesn't happen against a Brazil team that seems to be hitting their stride.
Brazil def Mexico 2-1
(G1) Belgium vs (H2) Japan
I get why the media was so into the idea that Belgium and England would rather lose their last game than win it, to enter the ostensibly easier half of the draw. The problem with that logic, is while Belgium is on the harder half, they also have the significantly easier (to me at least) Round of 16 game. Japan has played well, but probably should not be here with Senegal here instead. Belgium has been great so far, finally playing up to their potential - I don't think it ends yet. We can start worrying about the tougher half of the draw next match.
Belgium def Japan 2-0
(B1) Spain vs (A2) Russia
I get it was fun to see Russia get humbled in their last game, but overall I've found them, and their fans, great and I do hope they put up a good show. Given that Spain hasn't impressed even in their win over Morocco, I can easily see Russia hanging with them. I do think there will be some more freedom for Spain having navitaged through the group stage. My only real hope is that Russia scores a goal; I want to see that stadium explode when they score, even if it ultimately is a fruitless effort.
Spain def Russia 2-1
(D1) Croatia vs (C2) Denmark
Croatia to me was the best team of the group stage; either them or Belgium. Their midfield can just dominate teams, and I think the same will happen against Denmark, a top heavy team who probably should not be here if Peru had even average finishing. This might be, wen you consider form of the teams, the most one-sided game we'll get.
Croatia def Denmark 2-0
(F1) Sweden vs (E2) Switzerland
I have no idea about this game. Both teams would rather be without the ball, but I do think Switzerland can do better than Sweden if forced to retain possession. Sweden will depend on set pieces and countering, but I like Switzerland's ability to limit chances and the break. To be honest, I have no idea what I'm saying, but I don't want to pick all Group Winners.
Switzerland def Sweden 1-1 (on PKs)
(H1) Colombia vs (G2) England
Part II of why the England intentionally not trying to win might have been shortsighted: Colombia is really good. They may have won all three games had they not had the (well deserved) handball four minutes into their opening game. If James misses the game, I'll probably lean slightly towards England, but even then not by much. Colombia is a great side, and I think people overreacted to England's 6-1 win that had multiple penalties, atrocious set play defending, and of course Kane's third goal that was a lucky deflection. Aside from that, they nearly drew with Tunisia and we can throw out the last gmae. I think this will be the most open game - and I think Colombia knocks England out, rendering the decision to settle for the 'weaker half' moot.
Colombia def England 3-2
If these are right, it would set-up a QF slate of:
(C1) France vs (B2) Portugal
(E1) Brazil vs (G1) Belgium
(B1) Spain vs (D1) Croatia
(E2) Switzerland vs (H1) Colombia
That would be three great games, and one not so great game, but still could set-up some mouth-watering Semifinals.
