Tuesday, September 19, 2017

NFL 2017: Week 3 Power Rankings & The Rest

Ranking the 0-2 Teams

9.) New York Jets  (0-2  =  32-66)

What is annoying to me is that Todd Bowles is going to be excoriated for how bad this team will be. The Jets are not a good team. That is very, very intentional. This is not Todd Bowles's fault. If anything, they looked relatively competent for 29 minutes yesterday. The question I ask, is why does it seem like Mike Maccagnan is safe? He should go down with this ship for building a terrible 2016 roster. Tanking 2017 shouldn't automatically save him.


8.) Chicago Bears  (0-2  =  24-52)

Why are they not committing to starting Mitch Trubisky? I get that they may think the OL is so bad it could turn Trubisky into a David Carr type, but honestly for each David Carr that was forced into an untenable situation, many worse similarly on paper forced into that situation ended up fine. I would go with Trubisky tomorrow. Playing Mike Glennon is not accomplishing anything other than allowing GM Ryan Pace to claim some ROI on giving Glennon $18.5m guaranteed.


7.) San Francisco 49ers  (0-2  =  12-35)

We laughed at that Week 1 performance, and similarly laughed at their Week 2 performance on offense, and can certainly chide them for playing Brian Hoyer instead of Kaepernick, but quietly the 49ers defense has been really good. They controlled Carolina and Seattle fairly well. Sure, it is easy to point to the quality of the team's they've played offensively, but the 49ers controlled the line of scrimmage against Seattle in a way they haven't in the past.


6.) Cleveland Browns  (0-2  =  28-45)

That was a classic Browns game in Baltimore. They play fairly well, hit some big plays the Ravens usually don't allow, and still lose by two touchdowns because their QBs throw 4 INTs. So many times they came close to scoring TDs, or at least field goals, but Kizer and/or Hogan threw awful INTs. The future is still relatively bright, but we aren't away from Browns-y-ness just yet.


5.) Indianapolis Cots  (0-2  =  22-62)

What's odd is these rankings by record are tough because from a macro perspective, this season has gone fairly according to plan. If I told you all the teams that are 2-0 were 2-0, none would be too surprising with the possible exception of Baltimore. Same with the 0-2 crowd - especially a Luck-less Indy team. The Colts played reasonably well, but their botched QB situation cost them a clear win. They should have a better backup QB option than either Scott Tolzein and/or Jacoby Brissett. I am so done with the Chuck era.


4.) New Orleans Saints  (0-2  =  39-65)

It is staggering how the Saints defense is atrocious every year. Like every year. Oddly, the last time they made the playoffs in 2013, their defense was actually a relatively stronger unit than the offense. That is not true at all in 2014, 2015, 2016 and now 2017. When does Sean Payton get criticized for this. He's still hailed as this offensive genius, but that's not the point. At some point, an inability to hire a good defensive coordinator and come up with any cogent plan on defense will ruin you.


3.) Cincinnati Bengals  (0-2  =  9-33)

When I said it was not surprising that the 0-2 teams were 0-2, I was wrong. I am still surprised Cincinnati is 0-2. I actually think the Bengals played fairly well on Thursday. If not for one broken play of magic by DeShaun Watson they would have beaten Houston. Yes, the lack of offense is extremely disturbing, but the defense has played really well so far. I don't think they can make the playoffs, but if any team climbs out of 0-2 to make it, other than a sudden return of Andrew Luck, I would still pick the Bengals.


2.) New York Giants  (0-2  =  13-43)

The Giants first two games have been heavily disappointing, with an offense that looks totally lost, continuing a hidden trend last year. The Giants are basically reliant on their defense playing great, and their offense maybe getting a healthy Odell Beckham back at some point. Somehow, the Giants are in a relatively good position for an 0-2 team, in a division where all the other teams are 1-1. They better turn it around soon, though.


1.) Los Angeles Chargers  (0-2  =  38-43)

On one hand you have to feel bad about how close these losses have been. By the way, I'm sure I wrote that in 2014 and 2015 (and 2010, and 2011, and 2012). They are so snake-bitten. But at some point it becomes about the coaching and the players. Philip Rivers has become the master of throwing for 300 yards and having his team struggle to get to 20. I feel most bad for the kicker. In that division, they're already in a massive hole, but the Chargers will be a major spoiler for some team. I think the eventual winner of the AFC West will be the team that does best against San Diego.


Ranking the 1-1 Teams

13.) Jacksonville Jaguars  (1-1  =  45-44)

Well, the Jacksonville renaissance went well, right? I still believe in that defense. I don't believe it in when they have to play on the field basically the entire game. There's a reason why they gave up 6 points in the first half and 31 in the second. And it isn't because the defense it is bad. It is because Blake Bortles is still a disaster, and they may miss Allen Robinson more than we think.


12.) Houston Texans  (1-1  =  20-38)

I like DeShaun Watson. I loved him in college, and he showed a confidence in the NFL that impresses me so far. I think a lot of the rest of that team, particularly the offense outside of Nuke Hopkins, is a mess, but Watson is a keeper. I really hope he can rid himself of noted QB guru Bill O'Brien who has done nothing but be in the presence of Tom Brady and make Christian Hackenburg so decent enough to screw the Jets out of a 2nd round pick. Quietly, JJ Watt looked a lot better in Week 2 by the way.


11.) Buffalo Bills  (1-1  =  24-21)

I am finding it very hard to judge the Bills. On the one hand, they are semi-tanking after trading away a bunch of good players and waffling about using Tyrod Taylor. On the other hand, the won their week 1 game and almost won in Week 2 in Carolina. Personally, I think they are closer to the tank team. That win over the Jets was probably the least impressive win in Week 1, and they were only in that game at the end against Carolina because of Cam missing a couple throws. This is not a good team, but they do have a good defense.


10.) Los Angeles Rams  (1-1  =  66-36)
Well, the Rams renaissance went well, right? Turns out playing a corpse of a team is far easier than playing a real team. Jared Goff looked awful yesterday, and yet that probably still was his 2nd or 3rd best start of his career. Gurley had his best game in a while, at least. Aaron Donald wasn't 100%, and as he gets closer to that the defense should improve even more, but unless Goff can grow up this team isn't going anywhere.


9.) Arizona Cardinals  (1-1  =  39-48)

Well, we had a clear winner for the least impressive winner in Week 2. The Cardinals eeked out an overtime win against a Jacoby Brissett-led Colts team after falling behind 13-3 late in the 4th quarter. Carson Palmer looks totally done, even if he can unleash perfect passes like his TD to JJ Nelson. On the whole, that is the biggest issue with the team. The defense also is getting too blitz happy which they don't need to given the strength of the D-Line.


8.) Washington Redskins  (1-1  =  44-50)

I thought that was one of the least interesting wins I've seen. The Redskins are what they are, a team that will go 7-9 or 8-8, beat a lot of bad teams and get beat by good teams. Kirk Cousins is perfectly average. Their cadre of running backs work well enough. The defense has enough game changers to beat up bad OLs and make a splash play or two. Let's just move on.


7.) Tennessee Titans  (1-1  =  53-42)

A week after losing fairly easily at home, the Titans returned to being who we thought they were. The Titans week 1 loss looks a lot better now with the Raiders continuing their strong play. The defense has been solid and absolutely dominated that Jagaurs team, with the final score actually flattering Jacksonville, if anythnig, Their rebuilt secondary has done really well so far. The offense still hasn't reached peak levels, but Mariota is getting the protection needed. The results should come.


6.) Minnesota Vikings  (1-1  =  38-45)

If Bradford were healthy, the Vikings would likely be further up. Unsurprisngly their offense struggled with Case Keenum, but even then they blocked reasonably well enough - which will be the key when Bradford does end up coming back. The defense is still really strong, but I'm surprised how much Trae Waynes is still struggling. The cornerback group behind Xavier Rhodes really is a weak link right now on a defense with so few of them.


5.) Green Bay Packers  (1-1  =  40-43)

The Packers seemingly alternate healthy years and injured ones, with relatively healthy years in 2014 and 2016 surrounded by injured years in 2013 and 2015. Well, the trend calls for injuries this year and that is what we've seen so far. Hopefully for them neither Nelson or Daniel's injuries are too serious, and that they get one of their two great OTs back shortly. Rodgers is starting to emulate the 2015 version of him. To be fair, I don't think any team has had a tougher first two games.


4.) Dallas Cowboys  (1-1  =  36-45)

I'm not going to overreact to one lousy game. Any team is entitled to one, and strong teams have looked foolish going up against the Denver defense in recent years - check Green Bay's performance in 2015 against them. That said, Dak has looked off this year and showed that if he isn't getting solid run game support they are vulnerable to bouts of ineffectiveness - much like we saw in their 2nd loss last year in New York. Dak needs to improve his consistency, but most likely there will be very few games where Zeke and the run game is that ineffective. If this becomes a more common occurrence I'll start getting more concerned.


3.) Seattle Seahawks  (1-1  =  21-26)

The only reason not to panic is we've seen Seattle's offense have awful starts to seasons before. Hell, just last year they barely beat Miami 12-10, and then went touchdownless in Los Angeles losing to the Rams. The defense is back to being fantastic and while I'm sure they were more porous against the run than they would have wanted, the pass defense is ridiculous right now. My worry is with Wilson that he hasn't recovered from the beatings he took at times last year. The OL issues seem to be affecting him more than they used to.


2.) Philadelphia Eagles  (1-1  =  50-44)

The Eagles played well but lost. That will happen when you go on the road to play one of the best teams in the NFL. The Eagles defense was fantastic for 90% of that game, but had one bad play which the Chiefs took advantage of with Hunt hitting the long run. The Eagles have all the tools to be a really competitive team, especially with that DL playing the way it is (Vinny Curry has been fantastic).


1.) New England Patriots  (1-1  =  63-62)

We all rightfully didn't overreact to their loss to Kansas City, but let's also remember not to overreact to a win against one of the most abhorrent defenses of all time. As good as Brady and the Patriots offense was, the Vikings offense was arguably better against the Saints. What was encouraging was the play of all the running backs this week, and Gronk looked great after being pretty silent in Week 1. The Patriots will be fine, but the one warning is their schedule looks to be a lot more difficult, drawing the AFC West and NFC South, than originally thought.


Ranking the 2-0 (or 1-0) Teams

10.) Miami Dolphins  (1-0  =  19-17)

Well, for one week the Jay Cutler experiment worked pretty well. In reality, the team was fairly average, but made some key plays. Cutler dinked and dunked but overall seemed far more reserved and in control than ever previously. The team has to lean on Ajayi for success and while they may easily overuse him through the season, right now the are humming with him.


9.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers  (1-0  =  29-7)

As I said before, all the 2-0 teams are ones that wouldn't seem too surprising to start 2-0. The Buccaneers had a great first game, but a few signs of caution. First, the Bears may be terrible and they got a lot of help with Glennon self-destructing at times. Second, Jameis was inaccurate and erratic - the Buccaneers really could have scored more. The Bucs defense looks to be very strong, Mike Evans is still ungaurdable and on the whole the Buccaneers have the tools. Whether it comes together long term has a lot to do with Winston's continued development.


8.) Baltimore Ravens  (2-0  =  44-10)

The defense is fantastic, but I'm getting some flashbacks to last year. The Ravens started 3-0, including a Week 2 win over Cleveland, and then lost four straight. Now, those Ravens held off Pittsburgh almost all year and came one tackle away from stealing the division, but they were never all that good. The offense is very hit or miss - Flacco quietly had a nice first two games. The defense is great, but they won't get 5 turnovers every game. After a trip to London, the key will be those next two games, home to Pittsburgh and at Oakland. Real tests for them.


7.) Detroit Lions  (2-0  =  59-33)

That was a strong performance for a team whose defense looks a lot better than expected. The Lions in 2016 had a terrible defenses that graded out in 32nd place in DVOA. I wouldn't call it good, but with a healthy Ezekiel Ansah, and growth from some of their younger guys, they are mediocre. Stafford has been controlled as well. Amazing to think, but Jim Caldwell as really shown himself to be a quality head coach during his time in Detroit.


6.) Pittsburgh Steelers  (2-0  =  47-27)

Something still looks off to me. The Steelers got Cleveland and then a Bradford-less Vikings team and didn't really dominate either one. Roethlisberger looks fine, but apart from deep bombs there's rarely been consistency when throwing to anyone not named Antonio Brown. The defense is good, but I don't fully trust them against better offenses. The schedule is easy, but the Steelers always have 1-2 duds against bad teams. Color me not fully on board yet.


5.) Denver Broncos  (2-0  =  66-38)

On the other hand, Denver looks fantastic. Even after a series of departures on defense it still has the top flight ability to make offenses look basic. No one has done that to Dallas. The real key was the rush defense showing up. I don't think Siemian will look that good week-to-week, but through two (home) games he's been fine. Just like Baltimore, tough, let's remember Denver started 2-0 last season as well.


4.) Carolina Panthers  (32-6)

This ranking is somewhat hopeful that Cam Newton starts playing better the more he gets into the flow after missing essentially the whole offseason with his shoulder injury. To me his throws look fine from a velocity standpoint, but he definitely sailed a few. What is a good sign is the WRs look good, with both Benjamin and Funchess looking better than they did previously. Of course, we have that defense. 6 points allowed in two games. Neither opponent crossed 250 yards. They absolutely humiliated a Bills offense that put up 400 yards in week 1.


3.) Oakland Raiders  (2-0  =  71-36)

The Raiders need to stop blitzing so much. They generally played well against the run, and held up reasonably well in coverage. That was not true when they blitzed. Their DL is improved and they are generating more pressure, so I don't know why they are blitzing so much. The offense is really good and so damn well controlled. Derek Carr notably changed plays to the run a lot. He's not going after stats, or equality, giving all his TDs this week to Crabtree. Right now they are humming but the defense will make or break them and I think it would help to stop blitzing this much and leaving average linebackers and corners in man coverage with little help.


2.) Kansas City Chiefs  (2-0  =  69-47)

That was a well played game. I really liked the Chiefs adjustments - not that I can really tell what they were, but they were getting dominated upfront early by the Eagles DL. That can happen. But the Chiefs retooled a few focuses and ended up with three TD drives in the second half. The Chiefs offense so far has been the star of the team. I do worry about the defense without Berry, as Wentz and Co. attacked quite a few holes in the intermediate areas.


1.) Atlanta Falcons  (2-0  =  57-40)

I guess it is hard to judge the Falcons defense given how injured the Packers were at times during that game, but man do they look fast. The corners are really what make it to me though, so few easy throws on Alford and Trufant - and even that Poole guy that they uncovered from somewhere. Anyway, the offense looked close to its 2016 version, but I do worry about that OL. Anyway, two games in, they are right back where they were last year, in a brand new beautiful stadium that has some really strange lighting going on.


Looking Ahead to Next Week's Games

16.) Cleveland Browns (0-2)  @  Indianapolis Colts (0-2)  (1:00 - CBS)
15.) Los Angeles Rams (1-1)  @  San Francisco 49ers  (0-2)  (TNF - NFLN)

I call it "Exhibit A for the people that say the quality of play is shit" Thursday and Sunday, as already in Week 3 we have some awful games. One of them is a Thursday Night Game, which I hate. I personally am a defender of TNF as a concept, and the slate this year is better than most (we get NE @ TB, PHI @ CAR, KC @ OAK, TEN @ PIT, WAS @ DAL later this year), but man is this bleak. For the Colts, they better win this game. If Luck comes back around Week 6, they still have some type of shot of the AFC South, but they have to steal 2-3 wins without him.


14.) Baltimore Ravens (2-0)  @  Jacksonville Jaguars (1-1)  (9:30 - Yahoo!)

I call it "Why is this happening early morning on Yahoo!?" Sunday, as I have some questions. Is this game only available on Yahoo? Meaning you can't get it on normal TV? If so, I absolutely won't watch it. I know they did this two years ago with the Titans and Jaguars, but I don't remember the all-Yahoo game last year. Anyway, let's just move on. This game is a disaster, and for a second straight year, the Ravens look to be one of the most uninspiring 3-0 teams ever.


13.) Miami Dolphins (1-0)  @  New York Jets (0-2)  (1:00 - CBS)
12.) Pittsburgh Steelers (2-0)  @  Chicago Bears (0-2)  (1:00 - CBS)
11.) New Orleans Saints (0-2)  @  Carolina Panthers (2-0)  (1:00 - FOX)

I call it "Undefeated vs. Overdefeated" Sunday, as we get three games between a winless team and an undefeated team (there is a 4th one further up). This year seems to have more of these matchups. None of the games figure to be all that close, but I wouldn't be shocked if two of these are closer than you think. Particularly the Jets in their home opener, or Bears taking advantage of more Steelers lackadaisical play.


10.) Cincinnati Bengals (0-2)  @  Green Bay Packers (1-1)  (4:25 - CBS)
9.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-0)  @  Minnesota Vikings (1-1)  (1:00 - FOX)

I call it "Games that should've been better than they will be" Sunday, as we get two depressing games that should've been more. Bucs @ Vikings with a healthy Bradford would've been a really nice game. Without Bradford that loses a lot of luster, though watching the Vikings defense against the potentially high-powered offense of Tampa should be good. The other game is our national 4:25 game of the week, which is even more sad. The Bengals should not be this bad, and seeing a Bengals team that can't score a TD against an injury-ravaged Packers team is not a prime watching opportunity.


8.) Denver Broncos (2-0)  @  Buffalo Bills (1-1)  (1:00 - CBS)
7.) Houston Texans (1-1)  @  New England Patriots (1-1)  (1:00 - CBS)
6.) New York Giants (0-2)  @  Philadelphia Eagles (1-1)  (1:00 - FOX)

I call it "Semi-interesting games... and that is all" Sunday, as these are three intriguing games. For the Broncos, I'll be interested to see if their offense travels against a pretty good Bills defense. Then, to see if the Patriots offense is really back or was last week more about how bad the Saints are. Finally, the Giants and Eagles. I think the Eagles are significantly better than the Giants, but the Giants are one win away from being right back there in the division.


5.) Dallas Cowboys (1-1)  @  Arizona Cardinals (1-1)  (MNF - ESPN)
4.) Oakland Raiders (2-0)  @  Washington Redskins (1-1)  (SNF - NBC)

I call it "You know what, not every primetime game needs to be two marquee blue-blood franchises" Sunday and Monday, as we get our SNF and MNF to be perfectly good matchups that aren't the ones you normally see on them. Cowboys @ Cardinals looks better now that the Cowboys were hammered and the Cardinals squeaked out a win. For all the hate the Cardinals are getting, they haven't played a home game yet. The Raiders get a good road test against a good offense. Another opportunity to show that the defense has grown. They passed the Week 1 test of beating a good team on the road, and the Week 2 test of dominating bad teams. Week 3 they get another: can you beat a decent team on the road in primetime.


3.) Atlanta Falcons (2-0)  @  Detroit Lions (2-0)  (1:00 - FOX)
2.) Kansas City Chiefs (2-0)  @  San Diego Chargers (0-2)  (4:25 - CBS)

I call it "Perfectly Really Good Games" Sunday, as we just get two good games. Falcons @ Lions a couple years ago would've been lousy, but it becomes our only 2-0 vs. 2-0 game. The Falcons looked great and will give the Lions rebuilt, recharged offense a great test. The Chiefs and Chargers have played a bunch of memorable games over the years, and while 2-0 vs. 0-2 on paper isn't great, divisional rivalries, especially ones that have been as lively as these two, are exceptions.


1.) Seattle Seahawks (1-1)  @  Tennessee Titans (1-1)  (4:05 - FOX)

I call it "The weirdest top ranked game I've ever had, probably" Sunday, as I really like this game even though on paper it is meaningless. First, Tennessee really impressed me last week (granted, Jaguars are awful) and I really want to see the Mariota-led offense against Seattle. Also, their DL should dominate Seattle's OL and keep the game close. Random games speak out to me every now and then, but I can't imagine there was a less marketable game I've rated as my top game of the week.

About Me

I am a man who will go by the moniker dmstorm22, or StormyD, but not really StormyD. I'll talk about sports, mainly football, sometimes TV, sometimes other random things, sometimes even bring out some lists (a lot, lot, lot of lists). Enjoy.