AFC East
1.) New England Patriots = 12-4 (2)
2.) Miami Dolphins = 7-9
3.) Buffalo Bills = 4-12
4.) New York Jets = 2-14
I'm hedging my bets a bit with New England with the slight chance that Brady starts to drop-off. The history of QBs at 40 is not good, and while Brady was good at 39, two recent examples in Favre and Peyton were great until they suddenly weren't. If Brady does not drop off, this team likely goes 14-2. I'm very skeptical of their defense, a group that played a tissue-soft schedule last year that helped them lead the league in points allowed despite not being that great, and that was before retirements and injuries. The rest of the division is hot garbage. Brady can become 2015 Peyton and be terrible and it still may not matter. Honestly, the Jets are basically openly tanking and the Bills are close to that themselves. Miami would be intriguing, but replacing Tannehill with a quasi-motivated Jay Cutler is a significant drop-off.
AFC North
1.) Pittsburgh Steelers = 13-3 (1)
2.) Cincinnati Bengals = 9-7 (6)
3.) Baltimore Ravens = 7-9
4.) Cleveland Browns = 4-12
This is the opposite of hedging my bets. This is assuming Ben Roethlisberger stays healthy, there's no lasting impact with Le'Veon Bell's holdout, the receivers stay healthy and not suspended, and more The Steelers should be great. The offense should be unstoppable. They haven't had a year where they just put everything together and I think that is coming. The Bengals were better than their 6-9-1 record last year. They outscored their opponents by 10. Their offense barely had any of AJ Green or Tyler Eifert. If those guys are reasonably healthy the Bengals are a great bounce-back candidate. The Ravens may be good if their defense comes together, but I have some doubts and the amount of injuries & retirements is staggering. The Browns are finally back on the upswing, but I think they are still a year or two away.
AFC South
1.) Tennessee Titans = 10-6 (4)
2.) Indianapolis Colts = 7-9
3.) Jacksonville Jaguars = 6-10
4.) Houston Texans = 5-11
My assumption is Andrew Luck misses 4-6 games. That could be way off. Maybe he comes back in Week 2 (unlikely), maybe he misses the whole season (equally unlikely). Either way, that team is not built to win without him. The Titans are everyone's darling pick, and I get it. They were the best team in that division last year, and Marcus Mariota should improve with the new weapons around him. I was very skeptical of Mike Mularkey's 'Exotic Smashmouth' actually worked. The Jaguars are doomed as long as they hold out hope that Blake Bortles can become a good QB, and the Texans are due to have a season that more closely mirrors their actual talent level. Football Outsider's DVOA had them as the 29th best team in the NFL last year.
AFC West
1.) Oakland Raiders = 11-5 (3)
2.) Kansas City Chiefs = 10-6 (5)
3.) Los Angeles Chargers = 9-7
4.) Denver Broncos = 7-9
The Raiders were nowhere near a 12-4 team last year. I actually think if they go 11-5, and deserve to go 11-5, it is a natural improvement for a team that still has a wide-open window. Derek Carr is back, with his bevy of weapons (I can see Jared Cook quietly having a really good year), and that defense should at the very least be healthier. The Chiefs also were not as good as a 12-4 team last year. There are exciting aspects to the team with a full year of Tyreek Hill and hopefully more health on defense, but I think they take a small step back to their more logical talent-based 10-6 level. The Chargers, if they stay healthy, can easily challenge for a wild card (or division if OAK/KC drop-off). Rivers is still really good, and I think there may be some security in the team for once with teh San Diego stadium issues behind them. Finally Denver is lost until they fix QB, and their defense has taken a lot of attrition last couple years.
NFC East
1.) New York Giants = 10-6 (4)
2.) Philadelphia Eagles = 10-6 (6)
3.) Dallas Cowboys = 8-8
4.) Washington Redskins = 6-10
It's an annual tradition, dating back to my 2010 Season Predictions, to vastly overstate the Giants talent and pick them to win 10-13 games. The closest they came to that was actually last year when they went 11-5 with one of the league's best defenses. I like the addition of Brandon Marshall and hopefully the continuing growth of Sterling Sheppard. The Eagles honestly were a good team last year that with a little bit of growth from Wentz can easily win double-digit games. I also like the addition of Jeffery to give him another weapon. I expect some fall-off from Dallas, this assumes Zeke Elliott's suspension is not overturned and he does miss 6 games. The Redskins pick is more to make the numbers work of adding all team wins to 256.
NFC North
1.) Green Bay Packers = 12-4 (1)
2.) Minnesota Vikings = 8-8
3.) Detroit Lions = 7-9
4.) Chicago Bears = 5-11
The Packers are some variation of the same team every year, and for me this is one of the better versions of the team. I like Marty B coming in as a TE. I'm good with some more stability and running back and hopefully more health on the O-Line. The division is also a little down (I think). The Vikings defense will probably fall off a bit from last year. The Lions defense is likely to get more exposed this year than last and I can't imagine the team pulling off that many 4th quarter comebacks. The Bears are still rebuilding, though it will be interesting to see if Mitch Trubisky comes in and how he does.
NFC South
1.) Carolina Panthers = 12-4 (2)
2.) Atlanta Falcons = 9-7
3.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers = 9-7
4.) New Orleans Saints = 7-9
This might be my most outlandish pick, but I think the Panthers continue their yo-yo-ing for a 5th year (12-4 in '13, then 7-8-1, then 15-1, then 6-10). The Panthers were better than a 6-10 team last year. They have an easy schedule. I love the addition of McCaffrey in that offense, and that defense should be healthier and I expect a lot of growth from their now 2nd year corners. Similarly, for the Falcons, I think they'll have a season that somewhat mirrors what happened to Carolina last year. There's little chance their offense is nearly that efficient again, especially with the loss of Kyle Shanahan. The Bucs are on the ascendancy but I think the schedule is slightly too hard to make it work this year. Wouldn't be surprised if they go 11-5 though. The Saints are just continuing their long cycle of 7-9ness.
NFC West
1.) Seattle Seahawks = 11-3 (3)
2.) Arizona Cardinals = 10-6 (5)
3.) Los Angeles Rams = 6-10
4.) San Francisco 49ers = 3-13
The Seahawks, much like the Packers, are more or less the same team each year now. As their defensive players age we may see some drop-off (certainly did last year, though a lot of that was losing Earl Thomas), and we also saw a mediocre Russell Wilson. It may not be so start this time around, but I don't see them being much better this year. I expect the Cardinals to have a nice bounce-back season as well. They too weren't as bad as a 7-8-1 team. The Rams defense should be great given Wade Phillips track record (assuming Aaron Donald comes back) but that offense is a disaster. The 49ers are in the beginning of a lengthy rebuild process.
Playoffs
Wild Card Weekend
(A4) TEN beats (A5) KC 20-17
(A3) OAK beats (A6) CIN 31-20
(N5) ARZ beats (N4) NYG 23-20
(N3) SEA beats (N6) PHI 23-10
Divisional Weekend
(A1) PIT beats (A4) TEN 34-17
(A3) OAK beats (A2) NE 27-24
(N1) GB beats (N5) ARZ 30-24
(N2) CAR beats (N3) SEA 23-17
Championship Sunday
(A1) PIT beats (A3) OAK 30-23
(N2) CAR beats (N1) GB 27-23
Super Bowl XLIII
(N2) CAR beats (A1) PIT 28-21
1.) New England Patriots = 12-4 (2)
2.) Miami Dolphins = 7-9
3.) Buffalo Bills = 4-12
4.) New York Jets = 2-14
I'm hedging my bets a bit with New England with the slight chance that Brady starts to drop-off. The history of QBs at 40 is not good, and while Brady was good at 39, two recent examples in Favre and Peyton were great until they suddenly weren't. If Brady does not drop off, this team likely goes 14-2. I'm very skeptical of their defense, a group that played a tissue-soft schedule last year that helped them lead the league in points allowed despite not being that great, and that was before retirements and injuries. The rest of the division is hot garbage. Brady can become 2015 Peyton and be terrible and it still may not matter. Honestly, the Jets are basically openly tanking and the Bills are close to that themselves. Miami would be intriguing, but replacing Tannehill with a quasi-motivated Jay Cutler is a significant drop-off.
AFC North
1.) Pittsburgh Steelers = 13-3 (1)
2.) Cincinnati Bengals = 9-7 (6)
3.) Baltimore Ravens = 7-9
4.) Cleveland Browns = 4-12
This is the opposite of hedging my bets. This is assuming Ben Roethlisberger stays healthy, there's no lasting impact with Le'Veon Bell's holdout, the receivers stay healthy and not suspended, and more The Steelers should be great. The offense should be unstoppable. They haven't had a year where they just put everything together and I think that is coming. The Bengals were better than their 6-9-1 record last year. They outscored their opponents by 10. Their offense barely had any of AJ Green or Tyler Eifert. If those guys are reasonably healthy the Bengals are a great bounce-back candidate. The Ravens may be good if their defense comes together, but I have some doubts and the amount of injuries & retirements is staggering. The Browns are finally back on the upswing, but I think they are still a year or two away.
AFC South
1.) Tennessee Titans = 10-6 (4)
2.) Indianapolis Colts = 7-9
3.) Jacksonville Jaguars = 6-10
4.) Houston Texans = 5-11
My assumption is Andrew Luck misses 4-6 games. That could be way off. Maybe he comes back in Week 2 (unlikely), maybe he misses the whole season (equally unlikely). Either way, that team is not built to win without him. The Titans are everyone's darling pick, and I get it. They were the best team in that division last year, and Marcus Mariota should improve with the new weapons around him. I was very skeptical of Mike Mularkey's 'Exotic Smashmouth' actually worked. The Jaguars are doomed as long as they hold out hope that Blake Bortles can become a good QB, and the Texans are due to have a season that more closely mirrors their actual talent level. Football Outsider's DVOA had them as the 29th best team in the NFL last year.
AFC West
1.) Oakland Raiders = 11-5 (3)
2.) Kansas City Chiefs = 10-6 (5)
3.) Los Angeles Chargers = 9-7
4.) Denver Broncos = 7-9
The Raiders were nowhere near a 12-4 team last year. I actually think if they go 11-5, and deserve to go 11-5, it is a natural improvement for a team that still has a wide-open window. Derek Carr is back, with his bevy of weapons (I can see Jared Cook quietly having a really good year), and that defense should at the very least be healthier. The Chiefs also were not as good as a 12-4 team last year. There are exciting aspects to the team with a full year of Tyreek Hill and hopefully more health on defense, but I think they take a small step back to their more logical talent-based 10-6 level. The Chargers, if they stay healthy, can easily challenge for a wild card (or division if OAK/KC drop-off). Rivers is still really good, and I think there may be some security in the team for once with teh San Diego stadium issues behind them. Finally Denver is lost until they fix QB, and their defense has taken a lot of attrition last couple years.
NFC East
1.) New York Giants = 10-6 (4)
2.) Philadelphia Eagles = 10-6 (6)
3.) Dallas Cowboys = 8-8
4.) Washington Redskins = 6-10
It's an annual tradition, dating back to my 2010 Season Predictions, to vastly overstate the Giants talent and pick them to win 10-13 games. The closest they came to that was actually last year when they went 11-5 with one of the league's best defenses. I like the addition of Brandon Marshall and hopefully the continuing growth of Sterling Sheppard. The Eagles honestly were a good team last year that with a little bit of growth from Wentz can easily win double-digit games. I also like the addition of Jeffery to give him another weapon. I expect some fall-off from Dallas, this assumes Zeke Elliott's suspension is not overturned and he does miss 6 games. The Redskins pick is more to make the numbers work of adding all team wins to 256.
NFC North
1.) Green Bay Packers = 12-4 (1)
2.) Minnesota Vikings = 8-8
3.) Detroit Lions = 7-9
4.) Chicago Bears = 5-11
The Packers are some variation of the same team every year, and for me this is one of the better versions of the team. I like Marty B coming in as a TE. I'm good with some more stability and running back and hopefully more health on the O-Line. The division is also a little down (I think). The Vikings defense will probably fall off a bit from last year. The Lions defense is likely to get more exposed this year than last and I can't imagine the team pulling off that many 4th quarter comebacks. The Bears are still rebuilding, though it will be interesting to see if Mitch Trubisky comes in and how he does.
NFC South
1.) Carolina Panthers = 12-4 (2)
2.) Atlanta Falcons = 9-7
3.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers = 9-7
4.) New Orleans Saints = 7-9
This might be my most outlandish pick, but I think the Panthers continue their yo-yo-ing for a 5th year (12-4 in '13, then 7-8-1, then 15-1, then 6-10). The Panthers were better than a 6-10 team last year. They have an easy schedule. I love the addition of McCaffrey in that offense, and that defense should be healthier and I expect a lot of growth from their now 2nd year corners. Similarly, for the Falcons, I think they'll have a season that somewhat mirrors what happened to Carolina last year. There's little chance their offense is nearly that efficient again, especially with the loss of Kyle Shanahan. The Bucs are on the ascendancy but I think the schedule is slightly too hard to make it work this year. Wouldn't be surprised if they go 11-5 though. The Saints are just continuing their long cycle of 7-9ness.
NFC West
1.) Seattle Seahawks = 11-3 (3)
2.) Arizona Cardinals = 10-6 (5)
3.) Los Angeles Rams = 6-10
4.) San Francisco 49ers = 3-13
The Seahawks, much like the Packers, are more or less the same team each year now. As their defensive players age we may see some drop-off (certainly did last year, though a lot of that was losing Earl Thomas), and we also saw a mediocre Russell Wilson. It may not be so start this time around, but I don't see them being much better this year. I expect the Cardinals to have a nice bounce-back season as well. They too weren't as bad as a 7-8-1 team. The Rams defense should be great given Wade Phillips track record (assuming Aaron Donald comes back) but that offense is a disaster. The 49ers are in the beginning of a lengthy rebuild process.
Playoffs
Wild Card Weekend
(A4) TEN beats (A5) KC 20-17
(A3) OAK beats (A6) CIN 31-20
(N5) ARZ beats (N4) NYG 23-20
(N3) SEA beats (N6) PHI 23-10
Divisional Weekend
(A1) PIT beats (A4) TEN 34-17
(A3) OAK beats (A2) NE 27-24
(N1) GB beats (N5) ARZ 30-24
(N2) CAR beats (N3) SEA 23-17
Championship Sunday
(A1) PIT beats (A3) OAK 30-23
(N2) CAR beats (N1) GB 27-23
Super Bowl XLIII
(N2) CAR beats (A1) PIT 28-21
