Now, please notice I didn't say 'Will Win'. That is a very different statement that I am not yet ready to make. The Warriors are the favorites - given they have the home court advantage, that they are incredible on both sides of the ball, and have two MVPs, a likely DPOY and the best fourth option maybe ever. There are legitimate reasons that we need not re-legislate as to why the Warriors are favorites. But for people to ask if the chances are higher the Warriors sweep the Cavs than the Cavs win the series? That is insane.
Let's lay out a few reasons that I'll run through for why I think the Cavs have a decent chance:
1.) Their offense is basically as good as the Warriors
2.) They have shown an ability to play the Warriors close
3.) The Warriors haven't played anyone nearly this good yet
4.) Kerr not being there has to matter at some point
OK, let's tart quickly with Number 4. I think Steve Kerr is a fantastic coach, he's had the best start to his career of any coach ever, taking over a 50-win team and turning them into a juggernaut that may end up with a historic three-year run. That said, what do we tell our selves if the Warriors win the gitle (if not go 16-0) with Kerr not on the bench for most of those games. Now, I understand he's been there in practice and his presence is still felt, but if he's such a great coach, his absence may just matter here. We have ample evidence that Mike Brown is not that good of a coach. Doesn't matter when your team is outscoring their opponent by 16 points per game, but it may just notice if the game gets tight, and rotations matter more.
Now, number three, to me this is a key point. We have to fully separate regular season Cavaliers with postseason. Not just for this year. Forever. For the third year in a row the Cavs plodded along through the regular season, only to turn up the heat in a ridiculous way in teh playoffs - with no playoff run more ridiculous than this one. They have anhillated teams nearly as badly as the Warriors did. Their only loss was due to a 20-point blown lead with LeBron either sick, or drunk, or whatever his mindset was in Game 3. Other than that, let's just remember what they did to the Celtics even before Isiah Thomas got hurt, rolling them to truly historic proportions. You can say the Celtics were never as good as a #1 seed, but for the Cavs to, let's remember, have a 72-31 halftime lead in a Conference Finals game shouldn't just get put aside.
The Cavaliers, remember, were supposed to be the Warriors before the Warriors. When LeBron went back to Cleveland before 2014-15, and they traded for Kevin Love, they were supposed to be the all-time great offense juggernaut. Maybe it just took longer to put together. A healthy, engaged, and sharp-shooting Kevin Love completes the picture these playoffs. This is a team that on firepower alone can hang with Golden State. More than anything, this is by far the best team the Warriors will have played in the playoffs. The only team that comes close is the one that for 28 minutes was drumming the Warriors by 25 in Golden State before Kawhi got hurt. Yes, that was the only period of these playoffs the Warriors played a truly great opponent, and they were being manhandled. The Cavs, in their current level of engagement and focus, are as good as those Spurs, if not better.
Point number 1 is right here with this. The Cavaliers have been better than the Warriors on offense in the playoffs. They have the ability to match the Warriors firepower. Now, the Warriors defense is better (by a lot compared to regular season Cavs, but less so when compared to the playoff version) but the fact the Cavs can drop 120 is not meaningless. They seem incapable of going into a prolonged slump, they can keep the Warriors at arms length. Their shooters are, frankly, shooting a lot better this year, whether it is Kevin Love doing a decent Minnesota Love impression, or Kyle Korver, or even Deron Williams. They are deep (arguably, deeper than Golden State - a huge change from years past) and do the one thing that has been an achilles heel of the Warriors: offensive rebound. If they can steal 15-20% of their misses back their offense can become pretty unstoppable, at least enough so to keep competitive.
Finally, I just think they know how to play the Warriors, how to get them out of their comfort zone. We all remember Draymond's injury, and are so ready to make that excuse, but Draymond was there in Game 6 when the Cavs blew them out, and played Great in Game 7. What the Cavaliers did so well was make each possession count in attacking the few weaknesses the Warriors had. They consistently ran pick-and-rolls with Curry's man setting the pick to get Curry switched on someone, whether LeBron or Kyrie, that can exploit Curry's mediocre defense. Tristan owned them on the boards, a problem the Warriors still have. We'll hear how, well, the Warriors now have Durant, and that ultimately may put them over the top, but LeBron has always owned Durant in that particular matchup, dating back to their Heat-Thunder days. I also do wonder if the Warriors do find themselves in a close game late, if KD's iso-heavy tendencies may reappear - you know, the thing that had Draymond visibly screaming at him on court earlier this year.
I'm not optimistic in the Cavs actually winning the series, but I am in them keeping the series interesting for a while, taking them to 6-7. And yes, more than I know I'm right,, I hope I am. The NBA needs a good series, or this whole damn seasons was a waste. Let's be real, these NBA playoffs have been garbage for the most part. We may have had a second straight good Western Conference Finals, but Zaza Pachulia decided to end any hope of that. The season was good, but behind good National TV ratings, local ratings fell across the board aside from select teams. The NBA is probably quietly a bit worried about the Cavs and Warriors 24-1 combined run to the Finals. If the Warriors then brush that team aside 4-0 or 4-1, there will be real problems. Fortunately, I earnestly don't believe that will happen.
Let's lay out a few reasons that I'll run through for why I think the Cavs have a decent chance:
1.) Their offense is basically as good as the Warriors
2.) They have shown an ability to play the Warriors close
3.) The Warriors haven't played anyone nearly this good yet
4.) Kerr not being there has to matter at some point
OK, let's tart quickly with Number 4. I think Steve Kerr is a fantastic coach, he's had the best start to his career of any coach ever, taking over a 50-win team and turning them into a juggernaut that may end up with a historic three-year run. That said, what do we tell our selves if the Warriors win the gitle (if not go 16-0) with Kerr not on the bench for most of those games. Now, I understand he's been there in practice and his presence is still felt, but if he's such a great coach, his absence may just matter here. We have ample evidence that Mike Brown is not that good of a coach. Doesn't matter when your team is outscoring their opponent by 16 points per game, but it may just notice if the game gets tight, and rotations matter more.
Now, number three, to me this is a key point. We have to fully separate regular season Cavaliers with postseason. Not just for this year. Forever. For the third year in a row the Cavs plodded along through the regular season, only to turn up the heat in a ridiculous way in teh playoffs - with no playoff run more ridiculous than this one. They have anhillated teams nearly as badly as the Warriors did. Their only loss was due to a 20-point blown lead with LeBron either sick, or drunk, or whatever his mindset was in Game 3. Other than that, let's just remember what they did to the Celtics even before Isiah Thomas got hurt, rolling them to truly historic proportions. You can say the Celtics were never as good as a #1 seed, but for the Cavs to, let's remember, have a 72-31 halftime lead in a Conference Finals game shouldn't just get put aside.
The Cavaliers, remember, were supposed to be the Warriors before the Warriors. When LeBron went back to Cleveland before 2014-15, and they traded for Kevin Love, they were supposed to be the all-time great offense juggernaut. Maybe it just took longer to put together. A healthy, engaged, and sharp-shooting Kevin Love completes the picture these playoffs. This is a team that on firepower alone can hang with Golden State. More than anything, this is by far the best team the Warriors will have played in the playoffs. The only team that comes close is the one that for 28 minutes was drumming the Warriors by 25 in Golden State before Kawhi got hurt. Yes, that was the only period of these playoffs the Warriors played a truly great opponent, and they were being manhandled. The Cavs, in their current level of engagement and focus, are as good as those Spurs, if not better.
Point number 1 is right here with this. The Cavaliers have been better than the Warriors on offense in the playoffs. They have the ability to match the Warriors firepower. Now, the Warriors defense is better (by a lot compared to regular season Cavs, but less so when compared to the playoff version) but the fact the Cavs can drop 120 is not meaningless. They seem incapable of going into a prolonged slump, they can keep the Warriors at arms length. Their shooters are, frankly, shooting a lot better this year, whether it is Kevin Love doing a decent Minnesota Love impression, or Kyle Korver, or even Deron Williams. They are deep (arguably, deeper than Golden State - a huge change from years past) and do the one thing that has been an achilles heel of the Warriors: offensive rebound. If they can steal 15-20% of their misses back their offense can become pretty unstoppable, at least enough so to keep competitive.
Finally, I just think they know how to play the Warriors, how to get them out of their comfort zone. We all remember Draymond's injury, and are so ready to make that excuse, but Draymond was there in Game 6 when the Cavs blew them out, and played Great in Game 7. What the Cavaliers did so well was make each possession count in attacking the few weaknesses the Warriors had. They consistently ran pick-and-rolls with Curry's man setting the pick to get Curry switched on someone, whether LeBron or Kyrie, that can exploit Curry's mediocre defense. Tristan owned them on the boards, a problem the Warriors still have. We'll hear how, well, the Warriors now have Durant, and that ultimately may put them over the top, but LeBron has always owned Durant in that particular matchup, dating back to their Heat-Thunder days. I also do wonder if the Warriors do find themselves in a close game late, if KD's iso-heavy tendencies may reappear - you know, the thing that had Draymond visibly screaming at him on court earlier this year.
I'm not optimistic in the Cavs actually winning the series, but I am in them keeping the series interesting for a while, taking them to 6-7. And yes, more than I know I'm right,, I hope I am. The NBA needs a good series, or this whole damn seasons was a waste. Let's be real, these NBA playoffs have been garbage for the most part. We may have had a second straight good Western Conference Finals, but Zaza Pachulia decided to end any hope of that. The season was good, but behind good National TV ratings, local ratings fell across the board aside from select teams. The NBA is probably quietly a bit worried about the Cavs and Warriors 24-1 combined run to the Finals. If the Warriors then brush that team aside 4-0 or 4-1, there will be real problems. Fortunately, I earnestly don't believe that will happen.
