We
are officially 50 days out from the start of the 2016 NFL Season. It has
come that quickly. The offseason threw us a retirement party for an all-time
great. A bong video taking over the draft. And the final end (for all intents
and purposes) to Deflategate, a nice 544-days after it started. Yet for all
that madness, all the twists and turns and never-ending sense of ‘I don’t care’,
we all get a chance to now realize that indeed we do care. The NFL is almost
back. Training camps will start this weekend. The Hall of Fame Game will be played
in 16 days. This is happening, all over again. And for that, it is time to take
stock of all that happened and where I think the 32 teams lie as we begin this
journey for the 51st time.
Tier I – The Clear Worst
32.) Cleveland Browns
I
don’t think there is really any other choice for 32nd place. The
Browns hired a coach I like, and the strength of their coaching staff may pull
them into a handful of wins, but the talent is so minimal. They lost key pieces
in the offseason, from Geoff Schwartz to recently Desmond Bryant to injury.
They are going back to the Josh McCown well. Hopefully they do like the team
that used to employ Hue Jackson (Cincinnati) and give the new coach some time,
because it will take a while to build up to something good. Hue could probably
get them there, but they need the patience to make it happen.
Tier II – Low-Floor
Bottom-Feeders
31.) Tennessee Titans
If
Marcus Mariota turns into a star, this is going to look silly, because a good
QB can cure a lot of things. That said, the Titans match a lack of talent with
seemingly absurd coaching decisions / tactics. The Titans seem to be a team
lost in time, including benching top WRs, claiming to want to run out of 2-RB
sets all the time. Playing a defense that has no real structure apart from ‘being
physical.’ Mike Mularkey made his bones coordinating the Steelers when they had
Kordell Stewart. He was also there when they had Tommy Maddox and decided to
throw the ball all over the place. Sadly, he seems to remember or think of the
Stewart days as a lot more successful than the actual.
30.) San Francisco 49ers
I
am openly not a huge Chip Kelly fan, but this is less about Chip Kelly and more
about to team. It is hard to think so highly of a team that has lost just so
many starters over the past two years. The 49ers truly are a shell of
themselves, and while seeing Kelly play around with Colin Kaepernick may have a
high ceiling, the fact that he has not clearly beat out Blaine Gabbert is a
really bad indicator of how he’s doing adapting to the Kelly offense. The
defense is not built the way Kelly likes it, and needs an incredibly overhaul.
Apart from Navorro Bowman, every other member of their Super Bowl front-7 is
gone. Stunning.
29.) Philadelphia Eagles
The
team Kelly left is not far behind. I’ll give the Eagles credit for this: they
proactively cleaned house of ridding themselves of Kelly. They took steps to
remove every piece of Kelly’s personnel mismanagement – of course apart from
the QB. Their hydra-monster of QBs in Sam Bradford, Chase Daniel and rookie
Carson Wentz is such a peculiar way to manage that part of the roster. It is
hard to grasp what even the best case scenario is there. The roster has to
depend on some major 2nd year pushes to have anything resembling a
passable offense, and their defense, while good, is also really thin and
injuries could really ruin them quickly. Brighter days are ahead – of course
fewer than one would have hoped given how much draft capital they had to give
up to trade up to get Wentz.
28.) Detroit Lions
This
may be too low, but we are in the part of the NFL calendar where taking the
optimistic approach to all teams is so much easier than the pessimistic
approach. And because of that, major negative changes to personnel, such as
losing Hall of Fame quality players that are still heavy contributors, really
stand out. Calvin Johnson’s surprise retirement will hopefully not set the
Lions off into a death spiral like the last time they lost a superstar to a
sudden retirement. And I don’t think it will because the nucleus of the team is
much stronger than it was in 1999-2000. Still, replacing Calvin is nearly
impossible, and the Lions don’t really have the pieces to just pick up his 100
catches and 1,200 yards.
Tier III(a) – The Soft
Underbelly of the AFC
27.) Miami Dolphins
Speaking
of negative indicators, I guess we’re just going to keep on thinking Ryan
Tannehill is good, huh? Adam Gase is a very high pedigree QB guru, but we have
to see if that translates as well when he’s a head coach and not an Offensive
Coordinator as he was for Manning and Cutler. The defense is still talented,
and they buffeted that side of the ball with the additions of Kiko Alonso and
Byron Maxwell, overpriced to be sure, but also still effective when healthy.
Still, the offense is just so uninspiring, and in perfect Dolphins fashion they
seem intent on getting as many 2010 NFL Pro-Bowlers as possible (Arian Foster),
instead of actually trying to build around Tannehill for the future.
26.) San Diego Chargers
On
the one hand, they have Philip Rivers, who is finally gaining the acceptance
from the general NFL viewing public as a scientist of the position years after
his play warranted such respect. On the other hand, the roster is finally so
bad that even a good, healthy Philip Rivers may lose 10+ games – just like what
happened last year. The Chargers offense will still rely on a mix of aging
veterans and mercurial young guys (and good ol’ Antonio Gates). The defense is
still entirely undermanned outside of Jason Verrett. The team may get better in
their win-loss record because it is hard to do worse than 4-12, and because the
division is slightly worse this year, but I can’t see the team really doing
more than approaching .500 if everything goes right.
25.) Jacksonville Jaguars
One
of these years, the Jaguars will break out. You can’t keep drafting at the top
of the draft every year and have that not happen. The offense seems set with a young Bortles and two great receivers, but behind
Bortles’ nice stats lies a lot of bad tape against average to good teams. The
defense has a bunch of young talent, but for the second straight year their
Top-5 defensive pick got injured in the offseason. This time not for the season
hopefully, but Jalen Ramsey’s injury is going to hurt in the short term. The
team will break out, but I don’t think it is this year, and I don’t know if it will
be with Gus Bradley attached.
Tier III(a) – The Soft
Underbelly of the NFC
24.) Chicago Bears
There
is a sense of optimism around the Bears this year but with losing Adam Gase,
should there be? It is hard to have it both ways. The direction and calmness he
gave to that Bears offense is now going to Miami. Cutler himself has some
interesting weapons to throw too, but I think that team is still a few pieces
away on both ends from seriously competing. Long term, they are in a dangerous
spot with Cutler’s window being now and going for another 2-3 years in all
likelihood. The team as a whole is probably in a further away window.
23.) New Orleans Saints
The
NFC South has four teams that you can probably make some sort of case for
finishing in all three spots. The Saints, to me, are now the team with the
worst chance to end up in 1st place – though probably not the highest
chance to end up in last. Drew Brees can get you so far, even if he did see
some signs of regression last year even if his overall numbers stayed about
where they always are. The defense is still an absolute mess, and now the
schedule gets slightly harder as well. Also, I have to wonder if they have just
peaked or lost interest with Sean Payton at this point. He himself seemed a bit
detached and ready to leave at the end of last season anyway. Overall, it is
hard to trust a team with a 38-year old QB and coming off back-to-back 7-9
seasons in a bad division.
22.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Conversely
we have the Buccaneers, and while I question the firing of Lovie Smith which
seemed really rushed, there is a lot of optimism abound. Jameis Winston really
settled down in the second half and his the pieces around him to make it all
work. I am not a huge fan of the Dirk Koetter hire, but he did a good job with
a young Matt Ryan (then again, so did Mike Mularkey). He has receivers to throw
to and a decent o-line. The defense is more of a worry. They were building
towards something with Lovie Smith, and while they’ve retained some of his
principles, it does seem likely that there may be a stunted growth on that side
of the ball. The talent is there, but slightly aging, which is bad given the
youth on the offense. Honestly, when writing this I’m reconsidering putting
them this high.
21.) Atlanta Falcons
The
Falcons had a very quiet offseason, where they basically did nothing to address
their biggest weakness (pass rush), other than get a few rotational guys. They
re-addressed the secondary, which wasn’t a huge issue, in the draft. I’m not
really sure what their improvement path is, but they were already a .500 team.
Out of the mess that is Spots #2-4 in the NFC South, the Falcons to me are the
team with the lowest ceiling, but probably the lowest floor as well.
20.) Washington Redskins
There
is a good reason why the Redskins have avoided signing Kirk Cousins long term,
a very good one: he isn’t that good. Or at least there is no clear evidence
that he is that good. 7 great games does not make a great QB – Washington has recent
evidence of this as well given what happened with RGIII. I like the approach
they took, and the quiet offseason they had. I am a little skeptical of Josh
Norman outside of Carolina, but it fills a need. My largest issue with not
trusting Washington more is I don’t think Cousins was nearly as good as he
showed late last season, and the Redskins roster with an average cousins is an
average team.
Tier V – High Ceiling Potential
Threats
19.) St. Louis Rams
Had
the Rams been in any other division, they would have had a clear path to the
playoffs. It isn’t an easy path, but it is a clear one. They run the ball with
Todd Gurley, sprinkle in some Tavon Austin plays, and hope their young defense
takes another step forward and dominates to an even greater degree. If they can
mix Jared Goff in there and have him not screw up, a really bright future would
emerge. There are a few issues with this logic, of course. First, is this is a
bit archaic way of playing football. Second, they still have Jeff Fisher as
head coach, a man who knows how easy it is to keep on being employed at 7-9 or
8-8. And third, and most important, they have two of the league’s best teams in
their division. None of that helps.
18.) New York Giants
I
just know come opening day I’m going to trick myself into picking the Giants to
win the NFC East like I always do. There is a chance it happens, because the
NFC East will likely not have a 12-4 Champion, but I’m not buying the Giants
because I’m not buying the defense even after the upgrades with guys like
Jenkins, Harrison and Vernon. Call me a disbeliever in adding three good but
not great players to an awful defense and thinking that will result in
something more than an average defense. Eli Manning has found a comfort level
in that offense, and of course Odell Beckham is still a monster, but I don’t
know if they’ll win enough 30-27 games to make a serious push. They could… I’ll
convince myself they will… but they likely won’t.
17.) Baltimore Ravens
I
think I picked them to go 12-4 and go to the Super Bowl last year. Well, I have
been wrong before. I don’t know if I have ever been that wrong. But I have been
wrong. The Ravens were rarely blown out last year, and were often actually
quite competitive, but they never really blew anyone out in their 5 wins
either. Other than their guys getting healthy again, I don’t see much reason
for optimism beyond just natural progression towards their true talent level. I
like the Mike Wallace signing, but continuing belief in him seems as pointless
as my belief in the Giants. The o-line used to be the strength of the team, and
through retirement and attrition that even looks like a weakness. I can’t
picture the Ravens ever having a sustained period of mediocrity with Harbaugh,
but we may be close to that point.
16.) Houston Texans
This
ranking was made before I learned of JJ Watt’s injury that could keep him out
of the first few weeks of the regular season. An injury like that really
changes the perspective outlook of the team. Anyway, this is a selection based
on the idea that Brock Osweiler could be good, but he most likely is not that
good – his 7-game show in Denver was really iffy looking back at things. The
rest of the team has a few holes, like secondary receivers, a competent o-line,
and a defense with a suspect back-seven. The Texans took advantage of the
opportunity that presented itself after Luck was injured and sat for the year,
and while there is an opportunity for them to reclaim their title, things will
be slightly tougher this year.
Tier VI – Half the Ball
is All That Matters, Right?
15.) New York Jets
This
goes up if they sign Ryan Fitzpatrick (I still plan on doing actual predictions
at some point before September 7th), but at this point it seems the
stalemate is real. While I like a lot of parts of this team, I definitely do
not like Geno Smith having anything to do with the 2016 offense (I like the
idea of Christian Hackenburg or Bryce Petty even less). Still, I think on
offense the 2015 Jets was a high-watermark. It is unlikely that Fitz even if he
is back matches that level, and I have to think Brandon Marshall begins to
decline at some point. The defense is still really good, however, and makes the
Jets a contender to nab a Wild Card spot, or even steal the division if the
Jimmy G era goes poorly.
14.) Buffalo Bills
I
think with a year’s worth of tape on Tyrod Taylor his effectiveness will be
slightly stunted in 2016. Of course, with a year of play under his belt maybe
it goes the other way, but to me there is a reason why he was a backup for 4-5
years before getting this shot. I do, however, think the defense improves.
There is no evidence of Rex Ryan being a bad defensive coordinator. He took
over a Top-5 defense and made them a #15 type unit. I have to think that was an
aberration, both with the personnel learning his scheme and the now-axed Mario
Williams not trying. I think the defense returns to form and compensates for
any potential slippage in Tyrod Taylor’s play.
13.) Indianapolis Colts
Here’s
the thing I don’t understand about all the people that hated on Colts
management, on Ryan Grigson, on Chuck Pagano, and on their players. Despite not
having Andrew Luck for 9 games, and going just 2-5 when he played injured, the
team finished 8-8. If any other team went 8-8 with their backup QB (and bad
play from their normal QB when he was healthy), they would likely be commended.
If anything, it showed that there are some bright spots to the Colts roster,
and that team plays really hard for Chuck Pagano. They still have serious
talent deficiencies at crucial spots (Get a damn pass rusher already), but
having a healthy Andrew Luck can paper over those a lot. People forget how good
Luck was in 2014 – and I think he matches that this year which makes them still
the clear favorite in the AFC South.
12.) Dallas Cowboys
This
has very little to do with Ezekiel Elliott, who may indeed have a monster
rookie season and is probably the safest bet for Offensive Rookie of the Year.
No, this is more to do with Tony Romo returning from injury. The primary
difference between a 12-4 season in 2014 and a 4-12 season in 2015 was Romo
(and to a lesser extent, Dez). That’s about it. The Cowboys still have a ton of
talent on offense, an O-Line that should protect him, and coaches on defense
that can make that unit somewhat passable. Somewhat passable is likely all they’ll
need to be a better version of the Giants (offense-heavy), and win the NFC East
again.
The VII – The New Guard
11.) Oakland Raiders
Yes,
this is somewhat a homer pick. It’s actually a fully homer pick. I am actually
quite terrified of how many people are trying to make the case for the Raiders
being a team on the rise. The pieces are there, from a QB who played really
well for ~12 games last year before failing down the stretch to better teams,
to a WR who if he cures his drops could be a Top-5 WR given his brilliant route
running, to a OLB in Khalil Mack who is already shaping up to be the next Von
Miller. The team nicely augmented to this with the money that they
contractually had to spend, and have built competence around the roster, and
Jack Del Rio, for his ills, is a purely competent head coach. They can win a
division with Manning out of the picture. Will they though? The next team may
have something to say about that.
10.) Kansas City Chiefs
The
team that ended the season on a 10-game win streak is probably the most primed
to jump on the AFC West with Manning out of the way (of course, Manning didn’t
really have anything to do with the Broncos 12-4 season last year). The Chiefs
will be getting Jamaal Charles back – though you have to wonder about the
effectiveness of an older RB who has gone through multiple serious injuries.
The Chiefs will be without Justin Houston as well for some portion of the
season. They have drafted and developed nicely to fill his (and Tamba Hali’s)
shoes, but I don’t know if they wanted to test that out so quickly. The Chiefs
are a really talented team, but the ceiling of any team with Alex Smith is
probably limited. I can see them pulling a 2011 49ers and going like 12-4, but
I can also see this slipping back to 9-7 for a 2nd time in three
years.
9.) Minnesota Vikings
The
Vikings went 11-5 last year. They started 7-2. They won the division in Week 17
by going into Green Bay and winning 20-13 (it should be known it was hard to
tell if either team wanted to win that game, as hosting Seattle was probably
worse than going to Washington). The Vikings were already good. Now they get a
year more of seasoning for Bridgewater, they give him a few more weapons to
deploy, and give that defense another year to fortify further. My only issue
with them is the move indoors could hamper that defense slightly, as they
seemed to love playing in the outdoor cold of Minnesota. We’ll see how that
goes (it’s not like there haven’t been dominant indoor / warm-weather defenses
before). The Vikings are still on the upswing and are already good. That’s pretty
good.
Tier VIII – The Old Guard
8.) Green Bay Packers
That
said, I still think the team they beat for the division is better. With Jordy
Nelson back, and a full 12-months removed from the injury, the offense should
return to the machine it was, rather than whatever the hell that imitation was
the last half of last season. The defense is still good, and the Packers
smartly locked up Mike Daniels who is a rising star. The Packers with a healthy
Nelson and Rodgers are still the best team in that division, even if strange
cracks showed up in that foundation last year when Jordy went down.
7.) Pittsburgh Steelers
I
still don’t trust that defense to be anything better than a #10-#12 type unit
that will struggle against good teams with good passing attacks. I do, however,
trust that offense to be a #1-#3 type unit that will not struggle against
anyone (apart from the odd 4-5 times a year some lesser team gets pressure on
Ben and gives them fits). Even without Martavis Bryant, the Steelers still have
more than enough weapons, including a seemingly healthy Le’Veon Bell returning
to the lineup. They went 10-6 with one of the best offenses in the league last
year starting Michael Vick / Landry Jones for 5 games. They can do better with
Ben for hopefully more than 11 this time around.
6.) New England Patriots
I
didn’t drop them too much with Brady out for 4 games, as I think they go at
worst 1-3, and more likely 2-2 in that stretch. Honestly, they probably go 3-1
with Brady, so 1 loss is not going to kill them. What matters a whole lot more
is their ability to get the #1 seed, as the Patriots have shown a clear
inability to win road playoff games – although maybe it is just an inability to
win playoff games in Denver (0-3 there). The offense will still be great, but
they didn’t do much to upgrade the O-Line apart from getting their guys
healthy. The defense traded away their best pass rusher, and while the
linebackers are great, they alone won’t make this a Top-5 defense. Of course,
it doesn’t need to be Top-5, just Top-15 good, which it definitely is.
5.) Seattle Seahawks
The
Seahawks have in the last four years won 11, 13, 12, and 10 games, but have
consistently been great each year – topping the league in Football Outsiders
DVOA each time. Their best team won the Super Bowl. Their two hottest teams
entering the playoffs won the least amount of games, and lost in the Divisional
Round after falling way behind early to an NFC South team. This year’s
iteration has the same strengths and weaknesses of every other Seahawks team –
bad o-line, great defense, Russell Wilson. The only change is really the loss
of Marshawn Lynch who was already being phased out. They’ll be really good
again, and it will, much like New England, come down to if they can nab the #1
seed and make sure they don’t have to play any 1PM EST Playoff Games.
Tier IX – The New Normal
4.) Cincinnati Bengals
For
a few years there, everyone said the Bengals had the best roster in the league
outside of the QB position. Suddenly, last year, they had the QB too. Andy
Dalton was a Top-3 QB last year by any measure before that freak thumb injury
that careened the Bengals season away from glory. The Bengals, had Dalton
stayed healthy, probably get the #1 seed (they lost it due to an OT loss in
Denver when AJ McCarron could not outplay Osweiler). The Bengals lost some of
that talent this year, including their latest coordinator to leave for a Head
Coach gig, but if Dalton’s 2015 level was not a mirage, they can more than
compensate for that. The defense is really good, the offense has a monster in
AJ Green, a great in Tyler Eifert, and a top o-line. There are no real
weaknesses now that the QB has matched his team’s level of play.
3.) Carolina Panthers
The
Panthers outlook comes down to two things: how good were they actually last
year given that 15-1 was probably better than their real talent level, and is
it a net positive or negative to lose Josh Norman but get back Kelvin Benjamin.
Personally, I think they were very good last year. They were an uninspiring 8-0
team, but they were a dominant force 9-1 team that finished the season off,
winning most of those 9 games by 20+ points, including playing three of the most
dominant halves in recent playoff history (1st half vs Seattle and
the whole NFC Championship Game). I have seen them cycle through secondary
players and remain a very good to great defense and have full faith in
Gettleman / Rivera / McDermott to do the same to make up for the loss of
Norman. Benjamin coming back really should help that offense. The Panthers have
built something special, and there is no clear end in sight right now.
2.) Arizona Cardinals
Yes,
I have the team that lost to Carolina 15-49 one spot ahead, for a few reasons.
It was clear that Carson Palmer’s finger really effected him in those playoffs.
It was also clear how badly they missed Tyrann Mathieu, and it was clear what
their biggest weakness as a team was: their pass rush. They had to blitz more
than most teams – and while they did it very effectively on the whole, it got
exposed in the Carolina game when the o-line held up really well. The Cardinals
addressed that weakness by drafting Robert Nkemdiche, trading for Chandler
Jones, and hopefully coaching up Markus Golden even more. If they get a pass
rush, this is pretty close to a perfect team here. I expect Carson Palmer to
remain really good, Larry Fitzgerald to remain dynamic in the slot, and David
Johnson to be better in Year #2. The Cardinals are a great roster, with a great
coach, and those two inputs usually return a really great team as an output.
Tier X – Well, The Champs
are the Champs
1.) Denver Broncos
Of
course, in my rules, the Defending Champs are #1 until they lose – which I
suspect could be as early as Week #1. They are probably in that range right
with Oakland / Kansas City / Minnesota, but for now they get the spoils of
wearing the belt. The Broncos will live and die by their defense carrying a
Mark Sanchez offense – but we have seen evidence of that formula resulting in trips
(plural) to the AFC Championship Game. The defense will have to compensate for
the loss of Malik Jackson and Danny Trevethan, and while the linebacker can be
replaced, there is no natural replacement for Jackson’s supreme talent. Still,
that is a Top-5 defense, and if Sanchez can replicate Osweiler’s performance
from last year they can challenge for the division quite easily.
