20.) Now that the Cubs cooled off (to the degree of having the worst June of any NL team), we can actually assess them rationally. The good is they still have the upside of the best team in baseball, and a degree of power-hitting youth in their lineup that I have never seen. The bad? The pitching may just not be that great. Jake Arrieta has had a troubling month, but his peripheral and indicators are down to the point where it might not be a fluke. Then again, are we that surprised that a player who was middling for five years than suddenly turned into Roger Clemens for 12 months is now back to being a #2 starter? They need some bullpen upgrades quickly as well. The lineup will get them to the playoffs easily. They need more pitching to get anywhere.
19.) I feel so bad for Mike Trout. I realize there is basically no chance the Angels try to trade him, but there is also basically no chance the Angels are good anytime before like 2018. Their whole team is barren, and their farm system is worse. At some point it becomes more important to trade the most valuable asset in baseball. All I know for Trout is that if he was on a good team, he would be on MVP #4 right now, and instead he'll be stuck on MVP #1 for a while. It is sad to see today's Mickey Mantle play for such a bad organization - and even sadder that that organization feels compelled to hang on to him.
18.) I'm interested to see if the trade for Drew Pomeranz trade is the start of 3-4 moves for Boston. Dave Dombrowski has a method. Some may dislike it, but Dombrowski achieved a lot of success by trading prospects for established players. Now, the issue here is Pomeranz, a former #5 overall pick, is not all that established, with 2016 representing by far the best season of his career. The risk on an 18-year old picther (the guy he gave up) is massive, but Pomeranz is not without risk himself. The Red Sox are loaded with prospects that could get great return for a club and GM who wants to win now, and I have to think there is more coming.
17.) Two interesting teams to watch, and two that may take the opposite approach, are the White Sox and Marlins. Both are at or above .500, and both have legitimate playoff chances for the first time in a long time. Both teams attendance have been struggling (obviously, Miami's issue is far larger), and can make well with a playoff push. The Marlins are at the early stages of their new cycle and it makes sense to ride this out. They have a bright future, all things considered, but it will be interesting to see if they load up on guys for the stretch run and mortgage some of that future - something they already started by trading for Fernando Rodney. On the other side, do the Sox pull the Sale trigger? His value will likely never be higher, and they are still a team in need of rebuilding. The hope is this year doesn't do to Chicago what the random 86-win 2008 season did to Houston and make them think they are closer than they really are.
16.) The MVP races should be interesting coming down the stretch. The AL will always be interesting for as long as Mike Trout continues to be both amazing and saddled with a bad team. The difference between last year and this year and when Trout was being robbed by Miguel Cabrera is that there are legitimate other candidates. Josh Donaldson has legitimately been as good as Trout the past 1.5 years. Jose Altuve has been just as good as Trout this year. Both are more likely MVP picks than Trout, and even have various voting blocs behind them, Donaldson the "I LUVZ MASHERS" crowd and Altuve the "SHORT GUYS ARE FUN" crowd. Over in the NL, it really comes down to whether people want to give it to a pitcher again - especially give one pitcher two MVPs in this day and age.
15.) My favorite race to watch down the stretch will be the AL East. The Red Sox had the lead and the best odds by the advanced stats group for much of the year, but as their offense went from 'Top-10 lineup ever' to just 'Best Lineup in 2016' over May and June, that has been replaced by the Blue Jays, who have pitched far better than anyone would have imagined especially after losing Price. Of course, neither of those teams are in 1st place, as the Orioles look to win the division for the 2nd time in 3 years while being counted out all the time each year. The Blue Jays are probably the best team. The Orioles have the best manager and have the advantage of actually being in 1st place. The Red Sox can be the best team if they use their trade chips. Just a old fashioned good race.
14.) Here's one downside of the two Wild Cards: basically all teams that are not currently under .500 are somewhat in it and may either a.) avoid trading players because they could make the playoffs, or b.) avoid rebuilding because they could make the playoffs. There is this whole group that are 1-4 games above .500, with the Yankees, Mariners, White Sox, Tigers and Royals. The worst part for that group, three of whom should have started rebuilding yesterday (Yankees, White Sox, Tigers), is that there are three teams above them with better chances to take Wild Cards (Blue Jays, Red Sox, Astros). Disappointment is abound, but at least 75% of the AL will feel some relevancy in the 2nd half this year.
13.) I love how the adjustments have changed the game into basically a brilliant mix of steroid era power and dead-ball era pitching. Everyone seems in on the idea that the strikeout is not the worst result for a hitter, so pitchers are continuing to pile up strikeouts, while hitters are hitting home runs at ridiculous rates. Really a best of both worlds. Guys will challenge 50 homers this year, and we will see, yet again, a record K/9 rate league-wide. To me, this is a nice medium for the game to be at. It was far too pitching dominated in 2010-2013, and while pitchers are still dominating, so are power hitters.
12.) Speaking of pitchers, can Clayton Kershaw please stay healthy, and can Noah Syndegaard please not be too hurt, and can Jose Fernandez continue to stay healthy. Can just all pitchers stay healthy. Pitching is a dangerous act, an unnatural one. There is a reason pitchers get hurt. But we are at a time of historically good pitching, and the best of those guys keep getting these little knicks and bruises. The baseball-loving world will have a collective panic if Clayton Kershaw has to get Tommy John surgery that I am not sure we will ever recover from. Personally, I just want to see the lefty Pedro Martinez back healthy and pitching, as watching Kershaw and marvelling at his stats on Baseball-Reference has become an every-five-day pilgrimage. Just stay healthy, boys!
11.) Speaking of Syndegaard, the Mets are learning why it is always risky to build your team around starting pitching, despite how damn rewarding it could be at times. The Mets are still in the Wild Card hunt (and I guess division race) and can always make a run if Syndegaard comes back and matches his former level along with DeGrom and Matz, but now Harvey is gone and while Zack Wheeler's return is a nice bonus, a guy coming off of Tommy John is not Matt Harvey. The hitting has picked it up, and seemingly they straight out own the Cubs, but even to get where that could matter, they need to get those horses back and hope they stay healthy.
19.) I feel so bad for Mike Trout. I realize there is basically no chance the Angels try to trade him, but there is also basically no chance the Angels are good anytime before like 2018. Their whole team is barren, and their farm system is worse. At some point it becomes more important to trade the most valuable asset in baseball. All I know for Trout is that if he was on a good team, he would be on MVP #4 right now, and instead he'll be stuck on MVP #1 for a while. It is sad to see today's Mickey Mantle play for such a bad organization - and even sadder that that organization feels compelled to hang on to him.
18.) I'm interested to see if the trade for Drew Pomeranz trade is the start of 3-4 moves for Boston. Dave Dombrowski has a method. Some may dislike it, but Dombrowski achieved a lot of success by trading prospects for established players. Now, the issue here is Pomeranz, a former #5 overall pick, is not all that established, with 2016 representing by far the best season of his career. The risk on an 18-year old picther (the guy he gave up) is massive, but Pomeranz is not without risk himself. The Red Sox are loaded with prospects that could get great return for a club and GM who wants to win now, and I have to think there is more coming.
17.) Two interesting teams to watch, and two that may take the opposite approach, are the White Sox and Marlins. Both are at or above .500, and both have legitimate playoff chances for the first time in a long time. Both teams attendance have been struggling (obviously, Miami's issue is far larger), and can make well with a playoff push. The Marlins are at the early stages of their new cycle and it makes sense to ride this out. They have a bright future, all things considered, but it will be interesting to see if they load up on guys for the stretch run and mortgage some of that future - something they already started by trading for Fernando Rodney. On the other side, do the Sox pull the Sale trigger? His value will likely never be higher, and they are still a team in need of rebuilding. The hope is this year doesn't do to Chicago what the random 86-win 2008 season did to Houston and make them think they are closer than they really are.
16.) The MVP races should be interesting coming down the stretch. The AL will always be interesting for as long as Mike Trout continues to be both amazing and saddled with a bad team. The difference between last year and this year and when Trout was being robbed by Miguel Cabrera is that there are legitimate other candidates. Josh Donaldson has legitimately been as good as Trout the past 1.5 years. Jose Altuve has been just as good as Trout this year. Both are more likely MVP picks than Trout, and even have various voting blocs behind them, Donaldson the "I LUVZ MASHERS" crowd and Altuve the "SHORT GUYS ARE FUN" crowd. Over in the NL, it really comes down to whether people want to give it to a pitcher again - especially give one pitcher two MVPs in this day and age.
15.) My favorite race to watch down the stretch will be the AL East. The Red Sox had the lead and the best odds by the advanced stats group for much of the year, but as their offense went from 'Top-10 lineup ever' to just 'Best Lineup in 2016' over May and June, that has been replaced by the Blue Jays, who have pitched far better than anyone would have imagined especially after losing Price. Of course, neither of those teams are in 1st place, as the Orioles look to win the division for the 2nd time in 3 years while being counted out all the time each year. The Blue Jays are probably the best team. The Orioles have the best manager and have the advantage of actually being in 1st place. The Red Sox can be the best team if they use their trade chips. Just a old fashioned good race.
14.) Here's one downside of the two Wild Cards: basically all teams that are not currently under .500 are somewhat in it and may either a.) avoid trading players because they could make the playoffs, or b.) avoid rebuilding because they could make the playoffs. There is this whole group that are 1-4 games above .500, with the Yankees, Mariners, White Sox, Tigers and Royals. The worst part for that group, three of whom should have started rebuilding yesterday (Yankees, White Sox, Tigers), is that there are three teams above them with better chances to take Wild Cards (Blue Jays, Red Sox, Astros). Disappointment is abound, but at least 75% of the AL will feel some relevancy in the 2nd half this year.
13.) I love how the adjustments have changed the game into basically a brilliant mix of steroid era power and dead-ball era pitching. Everyone seems in on the idea that the strikeout is not the worst result for a hitter, so pitchers are continuing to pile up strikeouts, while hitters are hitting home runs at ridiculous rates. Really a best of both worlds. Guys will challenge 50 homers this year, and we will see, yet again, a record K/9 rate league-wide. To me, this is a nice medium for the game to be at. It was far too pitching dominated in 2010-2013, and while pitchers are still dominating, so are power hitters.
12.) Speaking of pitchers, can Clayton Kershaw please stay healthy, and can Noah Syndegaard please not be too hurt, and can Jose Fernandez continue to stay healthy. Can just all pitchers stay healthy. Pitching is a dangerous act, an unnatural one. There is a reason pitchers get hurt. But we are at a time of historically good pitching, and the best of those guys keep getting these little knicks and bruises. The baseball-loving world will have a collective panic if Clayton Kershaw has to get Tommy John surgery that I am not sure we will ever recover from. Personally, I just want to see the lefty Pedro Martinez back healthy and pitching, as watching Kershaw and marvelling at his stats on Baseball-Reference has become an every-five-day pilgrimage. Just stay healthy, boys!
11.) Speaking of Syndegaard, the Mets are learning why it is always risky to build your team around starting pitching, despite how damn rewarding it could be at times. The Mets are still in the Wild Card hunt (and I guess division race) and can always make a run if Syndegaard comes back and matches his former level along with DeGrom and Matz, but now Harvey is gone and while Zack Wheeler's return is a nice bonus, a guy coming off of Tommy John is not Matt Harvey. The hitting has picked it up, and seemingly they straight out own the Cubs, but even to get where that could matter, they need to get those horses back and hope they stay healthy.
