Thursday, April 28, 2016

Grading the 2006 Draft, 10 Years Later

The 2006 draft was a strange one, the first in six years to not have a QB go #1, and there never was really a QB considered. The draft looking back wasn't the best, but there were some interesting selections and interesting 'what ifs?' we can look back on.


1.) Houston Texans select Mario Williams (DE, NC State) - Grade: B

Given the Texans were only really looking into either him or Reggie Bush, they made the right choice. Mario Williams had a good career, and helped elevate the Texans defense to where they were a decent team basically by Year 2 of his career. Mario Williams had 14 sacks in year #2, the first time the Texans reached .500. Mario could have done more in his career, for sure, and his second act in Buffalo ended on bad terms, but he was the centerpiece of a reasonably good defense and the start of a real franchise.


2.) New Orleans Saints select Reggie Bush (RB, USC) - Grade: C+

The Saints also rebuilt a franchise in this draft, and while most of their best picks came in later rounds, Reggie Bush was part of that success. They ultimately got five years of decent production from Bush, but he never really became the player he could have. Injuries certainly hurt his production, but Bush actually had a really great start, with 1300 yards from scrimmage in his rookie season. He never topped 1000 with the Saints until 2010. Also, unless it is Adrian Peterson, drafting a RB this high is never really a good choice.


3.) Tennessee Titans select Vince Young (QB, Texas) - Grade: C-

The opposite end of the spectrum from a RB is a QB, nearly always a decent gamble in terms of potential value. There were warning signs with Vince Young, and while he did have his moments in leading the Titans to some crazy comeback wins in his rookie season - somehow stealing away an Offensive Rookie of the Year award - he 'peaked' for a 10-win Titans team where he put up a lot of 15-29 type games for 170 yards. It ended terribly but even in his worst seasons he provided a handful of nice moments. He probably had a better career than the QB they would pick five years later - Jake Locker.


4.) New York Jets select D'Brickashaw Ferguson (LT, Virginia) - Grade: A

The Jets nailed this pick, getting a stalwart that played LT all but one SNAP for 10 years. We often say that the top LT in any draft can be stuck on the left side and anchor the line for 10 years. Few of them ever actually do that, Brick did, and did it really well. He probably was never one of the best LT in the league, but at his peak, he was Top-5 for 3-4 years, coupling with Nick Mangold to provide two dominant o-lineman. The Jets missed a lot of picks over the years, this was not one of those.


5.) Green Bay Packers select AJ Hawk (LB, Ohio State) - Grade:B-

AJ Hawk peaked as a 'pro-bowler', in the sense that he was voted in because he was reasonably famous and got a lot of tackles. There are a lot of LBs drafted that didn't do either of those things. AJ Hawk was seen as a high floor, low ceiling player. I don't think the Packers realized just how low that ceiling was. He was highly durable, rarely missing games in his 9 year Packers career, and started for some really good defenses. Had he been drafted at #15, this would be a much better pick looking back. Also, interesting to think if the Packers didn't have Rodgers waiting, maybe they go for Leinart or Cutler?


6.) San Francisco 49ers select Vernon Davis (TE, Maryland) - Grade: B

Vernon Davis was a physical freak, about as fast as a TE, about as big as a conventional TE. I am a little sypathetic towards Vernon because he was saddled with some awful QBs over the years. He showed what he could do in a real offense when he was under Norv Turner in 2007, or the Harbaugh years. Vernon should have a better career, one that is now largely over as seen by his total disappearance in Denver, but at times he lived up to the crazy hype he got as a true physical freak.


7.) Oakland Raiders select Michael Huff (DB, Texas) - Grade: C

Michael Huff was not a bad player. He was actually a decent contributor to the decent Raiders teams from 2009-2011, but he was largely ineffective before that. DBs generally take longer to develop than other positions - shown by guys like Nnamdi, but even then Huff was a little slower than normal. Huff never got hurt, but he was also a backup for his first two-plus years. The Raiders made a lot of bad selections, and there were worse ones than this, but the Huff pick was another missed opportunities.


8.) Buffalo Bills select Donte Whitner (S, Ohio State) - Grade: B-

Whitner is basically a slightly better version of Huff. the Bills rotated a lot of DBs in and out over the years, and while Whitner was always a constant presence, he never truly delivered the maximum value for the Bills. His best season came up in 2011 with San Francisco as an in-the-box safety for a great defense. Before that, he was a consistently decent player that would grade out a lot better if he was picked below #20.


9.) Detroit Lions select Ernie Sims (LB, Florida State) - Grade: C+

Sims, much like Huff and Whitner, is a player who played well at times, but largely underwhelmed given that draft positions. Sims only played under his rookie contract in Detroit, and never really matched even that production in his last three stops, but Sims best years did come in Detroit for some putrid teams. It hurts him historically that he was on such awful defenses, but those were largely not the fault of Sims, one of the few decent players on those teams.


10.) Arizona Cardinals select Matt Leinart (QB, USC) - Grade: D

This was, in retrospect, a truly awful pick - even worse than Vince Young, who at least won a few games and started a playoff game. Leinart couldn't do that. His most memorable games were probably a game where the Cardinals blew a 23-0 lead to the Bears in 2006, and just the fact that he lost his job to Kurt Warner. Leinart actually missed his best chance for any period of success when he got hurt right after taking over from Matt Schaub in 2011 - this was the team that was so good outside of QB they won a playoff game with TJ Yates. Leinart was a mess, and hopefully has found a better place as an announcer.


11.) Denver Broncos select Jay Cutler (QB, Vanderbilt) - Grade: B-

Cutler was by far the best QB of the Top-3 picked, even though under his time in Denver they never made the playoffs or finished better than 8-8 when he started more than half the season. Cutler led an efficient offense that made some nice music with Brandon Marshall and Tony Scheffler. The Broncos are really to blame for this grade not being better, when power-hungry McDaniels came in and traded Cutler after a 4,500 yard season that should have ended in the playoffs.


12.) Baltimore Ravens select Haloti Ngata (DT, Oregon) - Grade: A

The Ravens rarely picked high in the draft. The last time they did before this was 2003, when they picked a Mr. Terrell Suggs. This time they picked another defensive stalwart that would anchor the defensive line in Baltimore for 9 years. Ngata tailed off (ever-so) slightly late in his Baltimore tenure, but from 2006 - 2012, he was an absolute monster. I twice rated him among the Top-10 players in the league (following the 2009 & 2010 seasons). His career comparables are all Hall of Famers, and he has that standing among his peers. His chances for enshrinement may be diminished given his late career slide, but he was the final piece to perfectly complement Reed, Lewis and Suggs.


13.) Cleveland Browns select Kamerion Wimbley (DE, Florida State) - Grade: B

Wimbley may seem like a bust, but in reality he had a decent career in the beginning. He started right out of the gate with 11 sacks as a rookie. He had between 5.5 and 9.0 sacks every year through his age 29 season (2012). The last three of those came with the Raiders and Titans, but even if we limit it to just the Browns career, he had a nice four years of production for the team. Wimbley was a classic tweener, and never found his true place, but he played reasonably well in both the 3-4 and 4-3.


14.) Philadelphia Eagles select Broderick Bunkley (DT, Florida State) - Grade: C

It is weird, when I saw his name and Wimbley's name, I expected Bunkley to have done more and done better. Instead, Bunkley really didn't do much for some decent defenses. Bunkley was a constant underachiever for a team that had a very good defense for years under Jim Johnson. Bunkley was a starter, rarely missed games, played a lot of snaps, but really was never the disruptive force he showed in college.


15.) St. Louis Rams select Tye Hill (CB, Clemson) - Grade: C-

The Rams went 3-13, 2-14, 1-15, 7-9, 2-14 from 2007-2011. That is one of the worst five year runs in NFL history. Picks like this one and so many others in the early-to-mid Aughts were the primary contributors. Tye Hill had a decent rookie season, playing in 16 games, started 10, with three picks. He played in 8 in 2007, in four in 2008, and was gone from St. Louis. He moved around a bit after that, and then went away in 2010. The Rams really needed good players, instead Hill was bad and probably not even one of the worst picks they had.


16.) Miami Dolphins select Jason Allen (S, Tennessee) - Grade: C+

The Dolphins made out reasonably good with Allen, who provided five years of production, missing just one game, and being a good strong-nickle contributor. Allen was never a pro-bowl level talent, but those were some dire times in Miami where he didn't get much support. There are certainly worse picks that teams make in the mid-1st round, to the point where he played out his rookie contract. If anything, the 2006 draft had few true busts.


17.) Minnesota Vikings select Chad Greenway (LB, Iowa) - Grade: A-

Really nice pick, as Greenway developed into a really solid three-down linebacker that could cover and play the run with equal effectiveness. For years, Greenway was among the league leaders in a Football Outsiders stat called 'Defeats' which grades how many times a player makes a play that effectively ends a drive, whether it be a tackle or pass defended. Greenway was a monster in this stat. Ten years later he is still chugging along, never one of the Top-5 LBs in football, but in that #6 - #15 range year in and year out.


18.) Dallas Cowboys select Bobby Carpenter (LB, Ohio State) - Grade:D

Again, players like Carpenter, who more or less played out their rookie contracts, and made it into the 2010s of the NFL, are the worst picks in the draft. Carpenter represents one of those players, someone who couldn't ever crack the Dallas starting lineup, a career backup that never embarrassed himself out there. As we will come to see, it is easy for one player to get propped up because of the exploits of his more talented players in his position group - in this case, AJ Hawk.


19.) San Diego Chargers select Antonio Cromartie (CB, Florida State) - Grade: A-

The Chargers took a big risk in picking Antonio, a supremely talented physical freak that missed his senior season and would be a backup in his rookie year when recovering. By his second season, he was made a starter and got 10 interceptions, with two more in the playoffs. Cromartie played his four seasons in San Diego and was a bonafide #1 starter throughout. He then went to New York and continued to perform under Rex. Back in New York, he remains a very smart, if less athletic, player who has missed just one game in ten seasons.


20.) Kansas City Chiefs select Tamba Hali (DE, Penn State) - Grade: A

This draft was much better in retrospect, probably unfairly weighted by the lack of good QBs to come out of it. There were loads of good picks, and Hali is one of the best of them. Through injuries that have nagged him - while not caused him to miss many games - Hali has begun to slow down, but he has been a starter pretty much since day 1 and been a pressure machine the whole time, peaking with a four year run with 46.5 sacks. Hali has been a great player and great return on the #20 pick.


21.) New England Patriots select Laurence Maroney (RB, Minnesota) - Grade: D+

The Patriots had some really lean drafts from 2006-2009, and Maroney may have been one of the worst. The 2006 draft had some really nice running backs in it, guys like DeAngelo Williams, Maurice Jones-Drew, Leon Washington. Maroney was the first one picked and was never a good return. He topped out with 950 yards from scrimmage. He never came close to 1,000 yards, or 10 TDs. Maroney was a disaster of a pick for a team that until this had been money in the draft.


22.) San Francisco 49ers select Manny Lawson (LB, NC State) - Grade: C

Manny Lawson was a career bit player, two-down linebacker who played on some decent 49ers defenses - he left right before the 49ers got good under Harbaugh. Lawson was never close to a pro-bowl level player, but he was good enough to start the majority of his career in San Francisco, playing out his rookie deal. He was replaced by better players, but he was part of some top-half defenses.


23.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers select Davin Joseph (G, Oklahoma) - Grade: B

Davin Joseph was a guard for 9 years in Tampa, pretty much starting from day one and only missing serious time when he was one of the victims of the Staph Infection crisis in Tampa in 2011-12. He finally left the Tampa hell-hole in 2014 and his career may be over now, but let's pour one out for a player who really solidified a very unstable team to some degree. The Buccaneers certainly couldn't have hoped for more from the 23rd pick without being unreasonable.


24.) Cincinnati Bengals select Johnathan Joseph (CB, South Carolina) - Grade: B+

The rare Cincinnati corner that started from day one, Joseph was a really nice pick. He was never a pro-bowl level player in Cincinnati, but was right below there for his entire five year run with the Bengals. He teamed with Leon Hall to create a really nice cornerback duo, but the team really took off after he left and went all veteran with their secondary. Joseph took off with Houston, but he was the first true professional the Bengals picked in the first round, eschewing their normal strategy.


25.) Pittsburgh Steelers select Santonio Holmes (WR, Ohio State) - Grade:A-

Santonio Holmes was the pick that signaled a change in the Steelers philosophy, a sense that they trusted Roethlisberger to be the QB he would become. Holmes will always be remembered for the catch in Super Bowl XLIII, but he had some great seasons from 2007-2009 with the Steelers. He left somewhat acrimoniously, but to me that was the Steelers overreacting to bad press at the time coming off the Roethlisberger bathroom incidents. Holmes wasn't long for the league but he left a lasting impression in Pittsburgh.


26.) Buffalo Bills select John McCargo (DT, NC State) - Grade: F

Shockingly, no player drafted in the 1st round was out of the league before their second contract, so let's say this 'F' is more about being by far the worst pick than a true bust that was gone by year 3. McCargo, though, was awful, picking up just 2.5 sacks in his five year career, starting just one game in that time. He was overdrafted, sharing a d-line with Mario Williams and Manny Lawson. A huge missed opportunity for the Bills.


27.) Carolina Panthers select DeAngelo Williams (RB, Memphis) - Grade: A-

Picking running backs are always dicey, and the Panthers doubled down on this by picking another one two years later and giving both contract extensions. Williams started out slow, with 900 total yards in 2006-07, sharing the backfield with DeShaun Foster. In 2008, he took off and went crazy with 1,000 yards in the last game. DeAngelo put up an 18-TD season in 2008, and backed it up with 1,100 more in 2009. Williams was truly a solid, steady player for years in Carolina, assisting in growing Cam Newton in 2011-13. The Panthers made out well with this pick.


28.) Jacksonville Jaguars select Marcedes Lewis (TE, UCLA) - Grade: B-

I'll credit the Jaguars for picking a guy that could make it 10 years with the team, somehow Marcedes is still there in 2015. He never had more than 700 yards or 60 catches, but did pick up 10 TDs in 2010. The Jaguars never really threw the ball in his early career, though Lewis does pick up some added credit for being a capable blocker for most of his career. Lewis is hanging on and doing a great job of cashing them checks a decade after his pick.


29.) New York Jets select Nick Mangold (C, Ohio State) - Grade: A

Five players from Ohio State was drafted in the 1st round (Hawk, Whitner, Carpenter, Holmes, Mangold). I wonder what the odds you could have gotten that Mangold would end up the best. He may not make the Hall of Fame (would have been an A+ in that case), but Mangold was the best center in the league since he entered it, including fantastic seasons from 2008-2011. Mangold has missed just three games and is still going on strong. He lost his '06 partner in D'Brick, but he'll be a lasting reminder of how the Jets rebuilt a line for a decade in one draft.


30.) Indianapolis Colts select Joseph Addai (RB, LSU) - Grade: B

Addai was a strange pick but for an obvious need following Edge James signing with Arizona. He was never truly the #1 guy, but had a really nice career with teh Colts. He had 1,400 yards from scrimmage in each of his first two seasons, being a really nice two-way threat. He had a great playoffs in the 2006 Super Bowl run, good enough to be the go-to 'should have been MVP' for the Manning haters. He fizzled out quickly, but he was a far better pick than people remember. When people cite the litany of bad picks that marred the end of the Polian era, Addai should not be considered one of them.


31.) Seattle Seahawks select Kelly Jennings (DB, Miami) - Grade: C+

Jennings is squarely in that Manny Lawson, Jason Allen class, a guy that played a lot of years, started a decent amount of games, never really embarrassed himself, and had a nice career. Had this been a late second round pick, it would be seen as a good selection for the Seahawks. Seattle could have done more with this pick, and the next three guys were all better than Kelly Jennings, but they could have done worse also.


32.) New York Giants select Mathias Kiwanuka (DE, Boston College) - Grade: B

This was the height of the Giants going crazy drafting d-lineman, as they picked him just a year after taking Justin Tuck really high. I remember this being a really controversial pick at the time. His nine year career, shifting well between d-line and linebacker positions, was an able representation of how professional he was. Kiwanuka was never given free reign to get after QBs, saddled behind really great talents, but always fit whatever need the Giants had for him, being a stable contributor on two Super Bowl championship teams.


Best Pick in the Other Rounds

2nd Round: #52.) Green Bay Packers select Greg Jennings 

There is a lot of competition, like Maurice Jones-Drew, Marcus McNeill, Andrew Whitworth. Overall, the 2006 draft was a really nice one. I still think Jennings high production through 2011 is more than enough to warrant this spot. The Packers were bereft of receiving talent, and he stabilized that and eased the transition from Favre to Rodgers. Just a really nice career that was sadly marred by his disappearance after leaving Green Bay for Minnesota.


3rd Round: #92.) Dallas Cowboys select Jason Hatcher

Not as much competition here, as the only other player I considered was the Texans' pick of Eric Winston. Hatcher was a solid contributor in Dallas for some really nice defensive fronts in Dallas under Wade Phillips. He really took off from 2010 onwards, and was even a nice player for Washington next year, adding some professionalism to the roster in Washington.


4th Round: #108.) New Orleans Saints select Jahri Evans

I considered Brandon Marshall, or Elvis Dumervil, as this was a loaded 4th round (also had Owen Daniels and Stephen Gostkowski), but Evans is the clear pick. He was part of a ridiculous 2006 offseason for the Saints, and he combined with Carl Nicks to become a Hall of Fame worthy guard duo that drove some incredible offenses. A 4-time All Pro, Evans has an outside shot at a Hall of Fame spot in reality, and his constant presence in New Orleans will probably help him in that effort.


5th Round: #134.) Buffalo Bills select Kyle Williams

No one is close to Kyle Williams in this round. He's still there 10 years later, all ten for Buffalo, all ten with stellar production. He was underrated through much of his career, but peaked in publicity in 2013-14 with back to back all-pro level seasons for fanstatic D-Lines. The Bills got Top-10 production from a 5th round pick. It is ironic they got Williams in the same draft that they wasted a 1st round pick on John McCargo.


6th Round: #207.) Indianapolis Colts select Antoine Bethea

The 2006 draft was actually a really great one for Polian, who got Addai, Kelvin Hayden and Bethea, three different four year starters. Bethea was probably the best of the three, one of the best free safeties in teh NFL in his prime. He put up some really nice seasons in San Francisco these last two years as well, somehow aging better than some of the othere guys on the team. Anytime you can get pro-bowl level talent in the 6th round is just great.


7th Round: #252.) New Orleans Saints select Marques Colston

10 years of production as the #1 receiver in a historically good passing offense. 10 years with totals of 711 catches, 9,759 yards, 86 TDs. He markedly slowed down the last three years, but the first seven were good enough to make him worthy of a 1st round pick. Colston completed a massive haul for the Saints. He actually had some competition for best pick, as the Titans nabbed future all-pro Cortland Finnegan at #215, but the Saints getting that type of production and 10 years of it from the guy picked five spots from the end is outrageous.

About Me

I am a man who will go by the moniker dmstorm22, or StormyD, but not really StormyD. I'll talk about sports, mainly football, sometimes TV, sometimes other random things, sometimes even bring out some lists (a lot, lot, lot of lists). Enjoy.