There's a more celebratory post to come tomorrow, but for now, let's go straight to the overall picks.
But, first, a quick look back at who I predicted to make the playoffs at the start of the season. I normally don't do this, and I have no idea if this will make me look smart or dumb, but let's see:
East
Atlantic: Tampa Bay, Ottawa, Montreal
Metropolitan: New York Islanders, Washington, New York Rangers
Wild Card: Pittsburgh, Columbus
Eastern Conference Final: Washington over Tampa Bay
Overall, not too bad. My read of the Atlantic was off, but then agian I think I was more on the consensus end. Few saw this Panthers team gelling this quickly, and I guess it is my fault for not instinctively knowing the Red Wings would get one of the spots.
West
Central: St. Louis, Chicago, Dallas
Pacific: Anaheim, Calgary, Los Angeles
Wild Card: Minnesota, San Jose
Western Conference Final: Anaheim over St. Louis
I actually did a good job, picking five of the six automatic picks, and overall 7 of the 8 playoff teams right, only missing on Nashville.
Now, for the actual playoffs:
The Panthers spent years drafting at the top of the draft, netting them Erik Gudbrannson, Jonathan Huberdeau, Aleksander (Sasha) Barkov and Aaron Ekblad. Four young stars, but what really made this team go was the inclusion of Jaromir Jagr, who led the team in points along with providing veteran leadership. The Panthers are a really good team, fending off challenges to their title to pretty calmly win the division. Yet the Islanders basically tanked into playing them instead of playing Pittsburgh. The Islanders had one of the most disappointing seasons to still net 100 points ever. Tavares was close to point-per-game, Okposo not far behind, and yet no one really likes them. The goalie situation is a disaster, and I don't really see how they compensate for that against a young team with a solid goalie in Luongo.
But, first, a quick look back at who I predicted to make the playoffs at the start of the season. I normally don't do this, and I have no idea if this will make me look smart or dumb, but let's see:
East
Atlantic: Tampa Bay, Ottawa, Montreal
Metropolitan: New York Islanders, Washington, New York Rangers
Wild Card: Pittsburgh, Columbus
Eastern Conference Final: Washington over Tampa Bay
Overall, not too bad. My read of the Atlantic was off, but then agian I think I was more on the consensus end. Few saw this Panthers team gelling this quickly, and I guess it is my fault for not instinctively knowing the Red Wings would get one of the spots.
West
Central: St. Louis, Chicago, Dallas
Pacific: Anaheim, Calgary, Los Angeles
Wild Card: Minnesota, San Jose
Western Conference Final: Anaheim over St. Louis
I actually did a good job, picking five of the six automatic picks, and overall 7 of the 8 playoff teams right, only missing on Nashville.
Now, for the actual playoffs:
Eastern Conference
Atlantic Division
(A1) Florida Panthers (103 pts.) vs (W2) New York Islanders (100 pts.)
The Panthers spent years drafting at the top of the draft, netting them Erik Gudbrannson, Jonathan Huberdeau, Aleksander (Sasha) Barkov and Aaron Ekblad. Four young stars, but what really made this team go was the inclusion of Jaromir Jagr, who led the team in points along with providing veteran leadership. The Panthers are a really good team, fending off challenges to their title to pretty calmly win the division. Yet the Islanders basically tanked into playing them instead of playing Pittsburgh. The Islanders had one of the most disappointing seasons to still net 100 points ever. Tavares was close to point-per-game, Okposo not far behind, and yet no one really likes them. The goalie situation is a disaster, and I don't really see how they compensate for that against a young team with a solid goalie in Luongo.
Panthers in 5
(A2) Tampa Bay Lightning (97 pts.) vs (A3) Detroit Red Wings (93 pts.)
The Red Wings lead a charmed life. First, they make the playoffs because the current playoff format still isn't all that fair as they could easily nab that final 3rd place spot in the Atlantic. Now, after getting into the playoffs for the 25th (!) straight year, they draw a team with so many questions related to team health. Basically all we know is the most impactful injury: Steven Stamkos is out for this series at the very least. After that, Tyler Johnson is very questionable with an apparent concussion, and Hedman and Kucherov are expected to play in Game 1, but at what level. If they do play, even without Stamkos, the Lightning are deep enough and good enough to win anyway. The Red Wings are ostensibly not a good team, with a -13 goal differential - by far the worst in the playoff field. The Lighting were middling around .500 at the all start break and are way above now. This pick is assuming Hedman and Kucherov play the entire series, and Johnson comes back sooner rather than later. I hate to see Pavel Datsyuk's genius career in the NHL end, but I do think it will.
Lighting in 6
Metropolitan Division
(M1) Washington Capitals (120 pts.) vs (W2) Philadelphia Flyers (96 pts.)
The Flyers were the league's great surprise of 2016, coming out of nowhere to make the playoffs in a year everyone saw as a clear rebuilding season. They did it with weird contributions, like 32 goals from Wayne Simmonds, or a breakout season from rookie Shane Gostisbehere on the blue line. They got increasingly serviceable to good goaltending. Yet they really aren't in the same league as Washington, who was the best team in the league pretty much from the outset of the season. Their big-3 all head near point-per-game seasons. Their two big acquisitions in Justin Williams and TJ Oshie chipped in 50 points each. Braden Holtby had a great season. The Capitals recent failing is losing to better teams in the playoffs (Rangers). This isn't the Rangers, and this isn't the same Capitals.
Capitals in 5
(M2) Pittsburgh Penguins (104 pts.) vs (M3) New York Rangers (101 pts.)
This is an interesting series. The Penguins were a franchise in decline the last three seasons, and that continued through about the All Star Break, and then Crosby drank from the fountain of youth and the team absolutely took off into a monster the last two months. It is funny to look back at those Halcyon days when the big question was what is wrong with Sidney Crosby... who ended up #4 in points. The two big question marks for them are huge though - Evgeni Malkin's continued absence and Marc-Andre Fleury's concussion. Neither looks a solid bet to play. And for that, I slightly like the Rangers, who know how to play Pittsburgh, who have the better goalie, and have more recent success in the playoffs than Pittsburgh. I'm picking a lot of chalk in the 1st round, so I'll go off the book here.
Rangers in 7
Western Conference
Central Division
(C1) Dallas Stars (109 pts.) vs (W2) Minnesota Wild (87 pts.)
The Dallas Stars should be everyone's favorite position to take. They play fun, fast, offense-focused hockey for a few reasons. First, to hide their average goaltending, and second, because their offensive skill is ridiculous. Obviously, the headliners are Jamie Benn and Tyler Seguin, but the supplemental scoring has really improved. Jason Spezza randomly turned into a goal scorer, and John Klingberg is the West's answer to Erik Karlsson. The only real weakness is in goal. And the Wild are the wrong team to make the most out of that weakness. None of their top players had good seasons, and Zach Parise is a question mark for the first couple games. The Wild, much like hte Islanders, had a firmly disappointing season. The difference is the Wild really were disappointing, with 87 points. I can't imagine them coming together to beat a team that already overcame a midseason lull to end the season on fire.
Stars in 4
(C2) St. Louis Blues (107 pts.) vs (C3) Chicago Blackhawks (103 pts.)
This was a great series in 2014, of course won by Chicago. The Blues are more or less the same team with a few cosmetic changes. Out have gone TJ Oshie, in has come Paul Stasny, and improvements from guys like Tarasenko. The Blues are a really good tema. They've beaten Chicago recently. The Blackhawks are ripe for the picking, with Duncan Keith suspended for Game 1 and the team overall less deep than in previous season. Still, they are the Blackhawks. They are the team with the best player on the ice with Patrick Kane, who has made such beautiful music with rookie Artemi Panarin this year. The Blackhawks will need secondary scoring beyond the Kane line, but the Blues will need to do what they've never done in the past which is settle on a goaltender and ride him. I wish I could pick the Blues, but I just can't get past the Blackhawks always coming through. If not for a Game 7 collapse against LA two years ago, they could be going for a 4-peat right now.
Blackhawks in 6
Pacific Division
(P1) Anaheim Ducks (103 pts.) vs (W1) Nashville Predators (96 pts.)
The Ducks were so bad early in the season, so offensively impotent early on, that it is truly stunning they are sitting here back in 1st place in the Pacific Division. Despite never really fully clicking on offense, the Ducks have been the best team in just the 2016 portion of the 2015-16 season. The most underrated part of teh Ducks success has been the defense. Led by four young guns on that blue line (Lindholm, Vatanen, Fowler, Manson), the first three really having taken a step forward. The Predators are one of the few teams with a deep enough blue line to match, with Weber, Josi, Ekholm. However, the Preds don't have either the high ceiling firepower the Ducks do (who have been a Top-10 offense the past four months of the season), nor, as weird as it sounds to say when you are talking about Pekka Rinne, the goaltending.
Ducks in 6
(P2) Los Angeles Kings (102 pts.) vs (P3) San Jose Sharks (98 pts.)
And so they meet again for round 4. The Sharks won round 1, back in 2010-11, when they weren't chokers. The Kings won rounds 2-3, both in 7 games series, in the 2013 and 2014 playoffs. The last time they did it coming back from 0-3 down in the series, and after the Sharks missed the playoffs lost year, it seemed to be what broke them. Of course, the Kings missed the playoffs last season as well. The Kings have an ability to turn it on in the playoffs, but this may be the deepest Sharks team in recent years, though. The most interesting matchup here is the goalies, with Jonathan Quick playing against his former back-up in Martin Jones. Something feels different about this Sharks team, a group where Thornton was stripped of his leadership responsibilities which allowed him to free his mind and raise his game. This is not his team, it is Pavelski's and Burns's. I don't know why, but I'm calling upset.
Sharks in 7
Enjoy the greatest playoffs in the world.
