NFC East
Washington
1.) Franchise Kirk Cousins
The two camps are already publicizing how far apart they are. I really think it makes sense for the Redskins to tag him. Cousins will anyway want money at the annual value of the tag anyway. If they tag Cousins, and push the final decision another year out, the Redskins will first get 16 more data points to better evaluate Cousins, a player who was as erratic in the first 20 starts of his career as he was brilliant in the last 10. Also, he can have a good season, prove himself as a 'franchise' QB and not play as well as he did to end the 2015 season, which could in a way give the Redskins more leverage to get a deal closer to their end of the wage spectrum.
2.) Shift focus on defense to the draft
Scott McLoughan did an excellent job building some stability in the Redskins organization model. On the defensive side, he took an odd approach for someone who was so committed to building up a defense through the draft in both San Francisco and Seattle. The Redskins drafted just one guy on defense in the first four rounds. Instead, he brought in mid-tier FAs on short deals, a smart approach but not a lasting one. The defense should be the focus in 2016 draft, building some cornerstones around the few ones already there like Bresahued Breeland and Preston Smith.
Philadelphia Eagles
1.) Move on from Bradford
Sam Bradford is an incredibly lucky guy, making millions upon millions without ever actually being that good. He can continue his long con on the rest of the NFL in another location. Bradford will undoubtedly be expensive, and what the Eagles need in their QB is quick decision making and accuracy, two traits one doesn't quickly associate with Bradford. They can go bargain-basement for a bit or draft a future QB, but Bradford is not necessary for their future plans.
2.) Believe in the Wide-9, and trust Schwartz is not Juan Castillo
The Wide-9 is back, baby! The Eagles disastrous 2012 season was partially blamed on then-coordinator Juan Castillo's use of the Wide-9 tactic. Castillo himself has ties to the man who is coming in to run the Eagles defense in Jim Schwatz, who used that defense in Detroit. Juan Castillo got a bad rap, but the players, and even the coach, are more suited to the defense now than it used to be. Guys like Fletcher Cox were actually drafted to play in this defense, not the 3-4 the Eagles ran under Kelly. Any scheme change will take a bit of time, but issues they have will be more due to timing rather than any inherent problem with the system.
New York Giants
1.) Use every avenue to improve the pass rush
The only thing separating the Giants from being the best team in the division, apart from late-game coaching and time management, is their lack of pass rushers. Jason Pierre-Paul wasn't horrible given his conditions, but it is hard to imagine him getting better. The Giants defense wasn't pitiful because Steve Spagnuolo is a good coach - but much like the Colts, a defenses upside is limited without a pass rush. The Giants need to draft them, but given Manning's age, it is probably time to just go after a few in free agency. Maybe it is Malik Jackson or other prime free agent options, but the Giants need to pump that area with as much talent as possible.
2.) Focus on what the biggest strengths are on offense
Ben McAdoo will likely not have the long leash a normal new coach has given he still has ties to the last two disappointing years of the Coughlin regime. He needs to focus on what the Giants do well and maximize that. Eli Manning has performed well in that offense. That is fine. The running game has not and it won't. Don't waste more snaps on players that haven't worked at running back and use Shane Vereen, who was his normal dynamic self, as more than just a 3rd down back. Develop a 2nd receiver that has chemistry with Eli Manning over just talent like Reuben Randle. OBJ and Manning are not going anywhere, but they need to surround those two with the most snaps by the best players possible.
Dallas Cowboys
1.) Start developing alternatives to Jason Witten
The future hall of famer in Witten is still very good. Despite all the issues at QB, eh still had 77 receptions. The issue though is those receptions are just not as effective as they used to be. He had a career low 9.3 y/r, and had just 3 TDs. Witten is still a reasonably good player, but there is a clear expiration date approaching and the backup options are just not that appealing. James Hanna and Gavin Escobar combined for just 17 catches. This is an offense that has never not had a good TE, and they need to be proactive with a Witten replacement.
2.) Set-up the roster building plan to maximize the last few years for Romo
Tony Romo will be 36 on opening day. Even in this age where Manning and Brady wer both excellent through their 38 seasons, that doesn't point to Romo having a lot of time left. His outlook becomes worse when you consider his long history of back and shoulder issues. The Cowboys should start doing what Denver did; try to build out that defense by spending in free agency. Romo will make the offense work. The defense gets a boost from scheme and coaching, but better talent will make that scheme and coaching work even better. There's time to pay the piper when Romo is gone and it takes 3-4 years to identify the next QB.
NFC North
Minnesota Vikings
1.) Get Teddy some real weapons early in the draft
Teddy Bridgewater is the starting QB for a division winning team. A lot of the analytic community loved Bridgewater out of college and gave him a lot of rope in the start to his NFL career. And while he, again, started all 16 games for a division winner, his spotty play was a real disappointment in 2015. He struggled to get 200 yards in most games. His best weapon was a 1st round pick rookie. The Vikings offensive woes, coupled with them moving back indoors, really places a focus on improving the skill positions. No more Greg Jennings or Mike Wallace signings. Go big at receiver and TE in the draft, Give Bridgewater a 3rd down slot receiver type; allow him to grow with what has shown to be slightly limited physical skills.
2.) Go into 2016 with a plan on who will stay beyond that year
The Vikings have rebuilt their defense with high-round picks and high-value free agency signings. To the credit of Rick Spielman (who had a cock-roach like ability to survive multiple 'let's blow it up' rounds in Minnesota) and the coaching staff, they've been able to succeed with most of them. Three years ago, the Vikings picked three defensive players in the first round: Anthony Barr, Shariff Floyd and Xavier Rhodes. All three will have their contract up. Add that to recent signings like Linval Joseph and extensions for Eversen Griffen and Brian Robison and there is going to be a pressure on how much of their cap they can give to defense. They have to know coming into 2016 not all can stay.
Green Bay Packers
1.) Don't lose faith in the offense, nothing radical needs to happen
Few teams have ever faced such loss of skill positions as the 2015 Packers. It is still incredible they were reduced to throwing to Jeff Janis and Jared Abbrederis in a playoff game. What is nice for the Packers is that the players who were hurt that made them resort to the J&J club are coming back. Given recent examples of players coming back from ACLs, it is safe to assume that Jordy Nelson will be fine. That should allow Randall Cobb to operate well as a #2. The Packers, even if Devante Adams is a non-factor, will be fine. And because of that, Mike McCarthy and Co. shouldn't over-think or overreact to recent criticism. As Rodgers has often said, they need to 'R-E-L-A-X'. No need to change offensive strategies, or 'establish the run', or toss playcalling duties around the room. Just do what you always did.
2.) That all said, do play in Free Agency for once
I don't think the Packers need to change anything in terms of coaching or game-planning, and that extends to the defensive side as well. However, personnel decisions can use a rethinking. It is obvious and well known how the Packers have avoided free agency like the plague, and there seems to be internal pressure being placed on Ted Thompson to stop that. I agree. It is more odd given the rare times the Packers did get involved (Charles Woodson, Julius Peppers) it worked brilliantly. The Packers should take targeted risks, particuarly at o-line or even running back. Don't wait for Eddie Lacy to not be fat. Instead just get a better player and move on.
Detroit Lions
1.) Assume Calvin is gone and try to rebuild the guy you let get away
A few years ago, the Lions were basically given an unanswerable question. They had three guys who would all need giant contracts. The QB was a lock to stay, so essentially the choice came down to Ndamukong Suh or Calvin Johnson. They picked Johnson. Suh left to Miami, and a year later, Calvin decides to retire. Assuming he is retiring, instead of trying to replace him, the Lions should try to now replace Suh. They are already closer on that side of the ball, but that is where they can focus on in the draft. Terryl Austin is a magician with d-lineman, and at this point they may as well continue to build their strength as a defense than recreate an already spotty offense.
2.) Try to keep Terryl Austin if the inevitable happens and Caldwell gets shown the door
I don't know why Terryl Austin is still just a defensive coordinator. His defenses the last three years have been the best part of the Lions. Outwardly the Lions offense still gets the publicity because it is a perfect Fantasy Football Unit, but the defense has been solid at all levels. The Lions defense retained a lot more of its value without Suh and Fairley as anyone would have expected. He has coached up a secondary that has alternated between mediocre and young and good and aging. If Caldwell gets shown the door, which is not hard to see given the already high-variance offense losing its most integral player, the Lions should think long and hard about keeping one of the best coordinators in-house as a replacement.
Chicago Bears
1.) Re-sign Alshon Jefferey at all costs
The Bears have oodles of cap space, and they need to use a decent portion of that oodle to ensure Alshon Jefferey does not skip town. Oviously, the franchise tag is in play here, but if I am Chicago I would ensure he gets signed long term. The Bears are lacking in premium young talent, with a lot of their 'successful 2015' built off of Free Agency and a more competent season from Jay Cutler. Jefferey is dynamic, and can make Cutler, a wild thrower, better. They cannot let him walk. The only concern is Jefferey's injury history, but some risks are worth taking. If they can re-sign him, and if Kevin White comes back from his red-shirt season lost to injury, the Bears will at least have one area with youth, talent and long-term commitments.
2.) Ensure Dowell Loggins keeps the successes of Adam Gase's offense but improves on the negatives
In 2015, Cutler had maybe his most measured and consistent season. Cutler has been better before, but he was rarely so calm and composed in the way he played. Adam Gase took a lot of what he and Peyton did together, with quick throws, screens and short passes, limiting Cutler's exposure to defensive pressure against a bad o-line, and also his penchant to throw interceptions in bunches. Loggins is an internal hire and has worked with / under Gase, so in theory this offense should resemble what Gase did. That is important. Cutler hasn't been given a great hand in the incredible turnover of his coaches on the offensive side since going to Chicago. He needs some consistency with Loggins.
