AFC East
1.) Actually invest in the o-line:
The Patriots lost the AFC Championship because they were not at home. They also lost because their o-line got beat at every single position. They also lost home field advantage because the o-line got beat down the stretch. I hated when people threw out the 827 combinations the Patriots used, because even when everyone was healthy the Patriots kept rotating lineman for no reason, but still there is a big need here. They already brought back Dante Scarnecchia as coach, but they need to actually draft lineman high for once. Since getting Vollmer (2nd) in 2009 and Solder (1st) in 2011, they have mostly avoided lineman high, but with few other needs this is a big one.
2.) Try to find an all-in-one back
Basically since Danny Woodhead left, the Patriots have had very stylized roles for their running backs. They''ve basically split touches to the 'receiving' back (Vereen, White, Lewis) and the 'running' back (Ridley, Blount, Bolden), rarely crossing over - which leads to a lot of predictability from that offense. Obviously not enough to make them a bad offense, but it would nice to actually have and develop a 3-down back. Maybe Dion Lewis is that guy, but then they should run with him more.
New York
1.) Figure out of Muhammad Wilkerson is worth the opportunity cost:
Muhammad Wilkerson is very, very good. So are the other three top d-lineman the Jets have (Damon Harrison - also a free agent, Sheldon Richardson and Leonard Williams). All four were on rookie contracts. Now the first two decisions are up. It is easy to say they should break the bank to keep Wilkerson, but the same could be said of Richardson and potentially Williams. The Jets have other needs, and one of them is still probably QB. One of the biggest risk of building a team like the Jets is having so many expensive players outside of QB makes it hard to pay the QB when you need to. Understand what you may have in Leonard Williams and don't be afraid to let Wilkerson walk. Maybe lock up Richardson now as result at under-value.
2.) Discuss the succession plan for Ryan Fitzpatrick:
Obviously, Fitzpatrick has a ceiling. That said, it is a higher ceiling than Peyton Manning v. 2015 - and that guy won a Super Bowl on the back of a great defense. The Jets also potentially can have a great defense. That said, the team is teeming with young talent and need a young QB to keep this ride going beyond 2017 or so when Fitzpatrick will start to really regress. It may not need to be immediate, but for a team with limited needs, why not take a QB if one falls to #20?
Buffalo
1.) Get the players that Rex Ryan wants, or get the coaches the players need:
The Bills were by advanced stats a Top-5 defense with Gregg Williams as coordinator in 2013, the team got 57 sacks and the big-4 guys (both Williams, Jerry Hughes, Marcel Dareus) combined for 41. In 2014, by both regular and advanced stats, they were at Top-5 defense, now with Jim Schwartz (and his 4-3) as coordinator. The Bills still got 54 sacks and got 40 sacks from those 4 guys. In 2015, they got Rex Ryan, a noted defensive genius, and the Bills became a mediocre defense, compiling 21 sacks, with just 13 from those 4. The Bills defense fall was glaring. It is clear the personnel are not matching Rex. Now, given you just hired Rex Ryan, go all in to get his guys on defense. Rex has shown he can build a great defense with his players, and they're not necessarily great or super-expensive.
2.) Get an actual possession receiver:
Sammy Watkins is an exciting young player and has shown a good rapport with Tyrod Taylor. He had 60 receptions last year. No other reciever had more than 50. Robert Woods, a slot-type was 2nd. They don't have a true secondary outside receiver, a concern for a team with a still-growing QB. This is a place where they can be active in FA. The FA group at WR isn't the best (Jeffery shouldn't be a target here), but guys like Marvin Jones, Rishard Matthews, or even Anquan Boldin (despite his age) would be a valuable play here.
Miami
1.) Start planning for life after Tannehill if needed:
There's no need to cut bait now on Ryan yet. Let him play with Adam Gase, a man who did really nice work last year with Jay Cutler despite injuries at WR. Let Gase try to QB-whisper Tannehill's career back to life. That said, there's a chance it doesn't work. There's a chance Tannehill continues his regression or just has peaked as a #10-#15 type QB. If so, start thinking about moving on, now. Don't wait too long to cut bait. Let 2016 be the try-out for Tannehill under Gase, and if it doesn't work, let Gase pick his guy and build for the post-Tom Brady world.
2.) Invest in the o-line, and actually do it:
The Dolphins o-line hasn't been good since about 2008. They still haven't recovered from losing Jake Long, and while Mike Pouncey has worked out, guys like Jajuan James have definitely not. The Dolphins need to improve this area, even if to give Tannehill a better chance. Gase's offense generally mitigates o-line issues in the passing game, but their once really good run game has really fell off in 2015 as well. They don't have drastic needs anywhere, so I wouldn't surprised if they used a lot of ealry draft capital on the o-line position.
AFC North
1.) Grow the next wave of the Bengals defense:
The Bengals took a page from the Steelers book, drafting for future need on defense, where they draft guys 2-3 years before they are needed. They've done this mostly at CB, where Dre Kirkpatrick and now Darqueze Dennard inherit spots 3 years after they've drafted. They have to get the next wave now, specifically up-front, where they have surrounded the star of Geno Atkins, with a lot of spare parts. The Bengals defense is solid, but an injection of youth and starting the new cycle on the d-line is definitely needed, especially at the pass rush, where they depend of a lot of talent between 26-29 - fast-forward 2-3 years and those guys will go and the new draftees will have to step in,
2.) Keep pushing on offense
The Bengals were a freak-loss to the Texans and a freak-injury to Andy Dalton from likely making the Super Bowl. They are still a very good team, and a very talented team. However on offense they stand to get a little less talented on offense with both Andre Smith and Marvin Jones as free agents. They've drafted for future need at o-line, but the WR depth will become an issue if Marvin Jones walks. Obviously they can re-sign him, but in FA there are a lot of Marvin Jones types. The Bengals have cap-space too, so they can aim even higher. Andy Dalton is a good-to-very-good QB who had great QB production in 2015 because he was surrounded by great talent. The Bengals need that equation to remain the same on offense.
Pittsburgh
1.) Don't believe in the defensive resurgence and still work on that side of the ball:
The Steelers defense ended the season probably between the 10th and 15th best unit. Of course, they played an easy schedule and then slowed a limited Broncos team in the playoffs (after slowing a more limited McCarron-led Bengals team) so it would be prudent of the Steelers to not believe that side is fixed. They've needed corner-back help for years, and while the Steelers MO has been basically to sign ex-Steelers or bargain-bin FAs, it is time to actually draft a corner for once. In a passing league, even in a defense that limits the risk exposure of that position, they need better corner play. They also need better pass rush from the second level to complement an effective d-line.
2.) Change up the training method:
Obviously, the impact of injuries is driven primarily by luck, and/or playing Vontaze Burfict. We can't predict them, but with the Steelers it is becoming a trend. There are teams that have more injuries than others. The Colts and Giants are probably the two biggest examples - and at some point maybe training practices are a reason. Ben Roethlisberger plays recklessly, but the constant churn of o-lineman getting hurt? Injuries are probably 80%-90% luck, but that still leaves 10%-20% skill or better training.
Baltimore
1.) Find players who can replicate the top-end talents of their departed stars
The Ravens have had been able to consistently draft well basically from 2003-2013. Some of that magic touch has dried up a bit. The Ravens won the Super Bowl with 4 best-in-the-league talents (Lewis, Reed, Suggs, Ngata). Now three are gone and Suggs is coming of a 2nd achilles tear. They have not been able to adequately replace their splash plays. They've replaced those guys with players that make the basic plays, but the splash is not there for a defense that essentially relied on that from 2010-2014.
2.) Define an offensive approach
The Ravens have a QB who raised his game in 2014-15, and he isn't going anywhere. The have a decent running game and, when healthy, a good o-line. What they don't have is a set of receivers that work together. Steve Smith is coming back, but he'll be off an ACL Then it is a bunch of fungible parts that don't combine into a good product. They need to define their offensive roles better.
Cleveland
1.) Trust in Hue
The Browns made a good coaching hire in Hue Jackson. They've made a lot of bad ones recently, but this has the chance to have good results. Jackson's tenure in Oakland wasn't too bad, and I don't want to hold against him forever the hasty trade for Carson Palmer. What Jackson has shown in Cincinnati is a willingness to push the envelope, to try out weird formations and favor a wide-open style that allowed a team with an average to good QB (mainly form 2012-2014) into a perennial Top-10 offense. Hue Jackson will need time to shape this roster. The Browns have not shown the willingness to be patient basically ever since they re-became a franchise, but they need that more than ever.
2.) Don't be afraid to let go of the Lineman
For years, the only positive the Cleveland Browns have had is their o-line. They were afwul overall, but that line had a future Hall of Famer in Joe Thomas, a 1st-round quality starter at Center in Alex Mack, and a few other good players - the most recent being Mitchell Schwartz. Both Mack and Schwartz are free agents. If I was the Browns, I would not be afraid to let those two players go. Yes, it makes you worse, but with the black hole still at QB, and anyway needing time to build up to the players Hue Jackson needs, a full rebuild is the best path forward. The full rebuild does not need two high-priced lineman.
