Quick MVP Update:
/In lieu of reviewing picks I didn't make, a quick MVP prediction update
5.) JJ Watt - Still the best defensive player in the NFL, he suddenly leads the league in sacks again, has an outside shot at another 20 sack season, and has his team tied for first place because the defense has been 2002 Bucs good for four games. If they make the playoffs, and if Carolina falls at any point, this argument will get made, a lot.
4.) Andy Dalton - Forget this whole "he can't play in primetime" thing. He wasn't the reason they lost to Arizona, and his season-long stats are still amazing. He has a higher completion percentage, yards per attempt and TD percentage than Tom Brady. If they run the table and the Pats drop another game, the Bengals are your #1 seed.
3.) Carson Palmer - Carson Palmer had a slightly off game which drops him for me below Brady. Overall, Palmer has been almost exactly as good as Tom Brady this year. Palmer has thrown it fewer times than Brady, but has a better TD percentage, far better yards per attempt, an identical QB rating, and has, on a per-play basis, been better than Brady (Football Outsiders DVOA has him #1). He may have more weapons, but he plays in an offense that can suppress these rate-based stats given the deep-ball nature of what they do. He also has the narrative of coming back from a 2nd ACL tear.
2.) Tom Brady - I get it, he has no one to throw to, well guess what: it shows. His passer rating is now down to a very good 106.7, instead of the 110+ it was for most of the year. Like always, he's not throwing picks, but he's also not having as great of a year as his numbers look. Now that the Patriots aren't undefeated, that narrative goes away. I still give him loads of credit for playing well with so many guys around him going down, but the bulk of his numbers, and all his best games, came before those guys went down.
1.) Cam Newton - If they go undefeated, he's almost assured to win. Yes, his conventional stats are not great, but let's not forget that when you add rushing value, where he is far above any other QB, it becomes a lot closer. When factoring in rushing TDs, Newton would be #2 in the NFL in total TDs. When you look at total turnovers (including fumbles), the gap between Newton and Brady becomes 11 to 8. All those players that are missing for Brady... well those guys were never there to begin with for Newton. Let's remember Brady's #1 WR (LaFell) now used to be Newton's #2 guy. If they go undefeated no one needs to make an argument, but even had the Patriots escaped 21-17 against Denver, I would still have Newton #1.
Power Rankings
32.) Cleveland Browns (2-9 = 213-310)
I don't even know what to say about that loss - so quick betting tangent. I took the Ravens +4.5, which looked great for most of the game. Up 27-20 at the 2:00, I was sure I was good. Then the Browns tied and the Ravens went 3-and-out. At this point I only had to avoid an outcome where the Browns won with a TD, which seemed likely since most would settle for a field goal. Somehow, it went back and forth, and the biggest thing I wanted to avoid was the game going to OT and the potential of a Browns TD there, so I was rooting for the kicker to hit the 51 yard kick. Instead, we got what we got. I still won. It is games like this that betting is fun. However, had the Browns won the game on the same play and covered, I may have given up football forever.
31.) Tennessee Titans (2-9 = 203-257)
I regretted this ranking about five slots later, but was too lazy to change. The Titans are not a good team, with really nothing but marginal players everywhere. Sure, some of these guys have potential, like Mariota, or Dorial Green-Beckham, or Jurrel Casey. The Titans will rise as far, really, as Mariota will take them, and while he's been good, some of the bloom is coming off of the rose, especially when he struggles to read the Raiders defense.
30.) Philadelphia Eagles (4-7 = 243-274)
The Eagles may be the most bipolar team in the NFL this year. They've won games 27-7 and 39-17, but now lost two games by the combined score of 31-90. And did they play the top teams in those games? No, they played the Buccaneers (4-5 entering that game) and the Lions (3-7). Look, I don't think Chip Kelly is a disaster, but when the Buccaneers and Lions solve your offense, and your defense quits on you, it is a really bad sign.
29.) San Francisco 49ers (3-8 = 152-271)
It speaks volumes how far the 49ers have fallen that a close loss to the Cardinals at home in a game that was nowhere nearly as close as the score indicated and people hailed it as a really nice performance. Also speaking volumes: no one is even thinking that Colin Kaepernick was benched unfairly, or has any hope of coming back to play ahead of Blaine Gabbert.
28.) Miami Dolphins (4-7 = 225-287)
So it wasn't Joe Philbin's fault... maybe it is the offensive coordinator Bill Lazor's fault!? Maybe it is Ryan Tannehill's fault. Maybe it is his fault for not really getting any better in Year #4, and his fault for not getting the most out of a talented set of receivers. The Dolphins brief renassiance to 4-4 has been showed as just that, brief, and that win over Philadelphia looks a lot less impressive in retrospect.
27.) Dallas Cowboys (3-8 = 204-261)
The Cowboys will likely finish last in the NFC East, but it is almost assured they would have won this division with Romo healthy, likely going away. Tony Romo will end the season playing two complete games (2-0), and two half games (1-1), and missing the other 12. Just a disastrous season for him and the Cowboys after the great surprise of their 12-4 run last year.
26.) New Orleans Saints (4-7 = 261-339)
Maybe the issue wasn't Rob Ryan (hint: the issue is almost always Rob Ryan), but the players. Actually, maybe the issue is all too suddenly, people have figured out how to defend that offense. Sure, they've lost players and weapons, but they never had great players and weapons to begin with. Unless you think Jimmy Graham was THIS important. Drew Brees is not having a bad season by normal standards, but there is no explosiveness, and limited protection. For everything written about Peyton's demise, the demise of the Brees & Payton Saints is all the more shocking.
25.) Baltimore Ravens (4-7 = 259-276)
If Joe Flacco was healthy, and if they had won even one of the close games they lost (they should have definitely won the Jaguars game, for instance), they would 5-6, a fringe playoff contender, and 7-8 spots higher up. Instead, they are playing for pride, but the Ravens are a prideful bunch. Also, if you take away the two bad interceptions, Matt Schaub didn't look all too bad.
24.) Jacksonville Jaguars (4-7 = 236-299)
If the AFC South was better, or hte AFC overall was better, this would be seen as a pretty lost season in Jacksonville, but instead they are within striking distance of the AFC South if they win their head-to-head games, and the play of their offensive skill guys has been a true bright spot. Bortles needs to improve in a lot of areas, namely his accuracy, but the Allens will help that transition. Now if they could just fix that defense.
23.) San Diego Chargers (3-8 = 244-307)
The Chargers are having a lost season. If not for a miracle win against the Chiefs in Week 17 in 2013, this would be year #6 without a playoff game. But in those six years, we still have been able to watch Philip Rivers throw to Antonio Gates. The TE in that equation will be going to Canton some day - but maybe the QB should too. There is no question, though, if there was a Canton Wing for QB-Receiver combinations, the Rivers to Gates would get in 1st ballot.
22.) Detroit Lions (4-7 = 230-288)
Nothing wakes you up like a 45-10 loss in London, I guess. The Lions have been fantastic the last three games, especially on the defensive end, where they went to Green Bay and shut down the Packers (admittedly, that is kind of a thing now), then held Oakland under 10, and then did what they did to Philadelphia. The Lions were never as bad as they looked, and aren't as good as they currently do, but they might just be closer to team that wins 45-14 than the one that loses 45-10.
21.) St. Louis Rams (4-7 = 186-230)
I don't know if Jeff Fisher will get fired, but if he does it will be for not winning that Bradford for Foles trade. I won't say he lost it. It cleared a lot of cap space on a wasted contract, and they got the better picks in the deal, but he didn't win it either. That offense is so pathetic that they run 3-4 sweeps with Tavon Austin each game pretty much because that in the only way to gain chunk yardage. What was so promising in Week 1 is so disastrous now.
20.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-6 = 248-279)
Not a surprising loss that being the second straight road game after a huge win in Philadelphia, but definitely an odd one. They never seemed to have any issue moving the ball. There were no truly bad plays of performances. Yet they only scored 12 points? Jameis again looked pretty good, as did the weapons and defense, but somehow they lost by 13? Not sure what happened, but on to the next game.
19.) Chicago Bears (5-6 = 231-264)
The Bears show how much coaching matters. John Fox, and more so, Vic Fangio and Adam Gase, came in and took more or less the same roster that disastrously went 5-11 last year, and have the team at 5-6, with one of the losses being with Jimmy Clausen. They just went to Lambeau and beat the Packers, not only beat them but did so 17-13. That is a game Lovie Smith dreamed about when he was the Bears coach, and it happened despite them having pretty much no true impact players on defense.
18.) Atlanta Falcons (6-5 = 260-234)
The Falcons started 5-0, four of those wins coming against the garbage NFC East. Since, they are 1-5, with the only win being 10-7 against Zach Mettenberger and the Titans, who summarily fired their coach two games later. They are somewhat like Tampa Bay, where staitsically it all looks good, but they've now lost three straight home games to the likes of Minnesota (fine, explainable), Tampa Bay (less explainable), and Indianapolis (with Hasselbeck, not at all explainable). Matt Ryan is throwing too many picks, but the defense is not playing up either. Maybe those ex-Seahawks DCs are just not great coaches outside of the Legion of Boom.
17.) Washington Redskins (5-6 = 241-267)
By comparing upcoming schedules, the Redskins are probably the odds on favorite to win the division. Now, they have a serious problem winning away from home (they are 5-1 at home, 0-5 on the road), but if they win next Monday against Matt Cassel and win their last two home games that is 8-8 and might be good enough. Amazing, really, that this Kirk Cousins led team will make the playoffs.
16.) New York Giants (5-6 = 287-273)
They are still better than the Redskins, so much so that I am sure all the other NFC Playoff Teams are really hoping Washington hangs onto the NFC East (and I'm sure that team in Foxboro feels the same way). Still, that was the first truly classic shitty Manning performance. The Giants, had they won, would've been two games up on the division with five to play. Now, with a really tough schedule coming up, they have to do one game better than Washington. What a tough loss, one that will be Agent Zero for the end of the Coughlin era if it goes that way.
15.) Oakland Raiders (5-6 = 264-280)
Big win, even if it was sloppy and somewhat aided by the refereeing. The Raiders quickly emerged from that two game malaise to find themselves just a game back, and with a nice tie-breaking edge with just three AFC losses and a win against the Jets. The schedule is tough, and even if they miss the playoffs the 2015 Raiders are not the 2010-11 Raiders that also finished 8-8. The future is bright. Let's not overlook that Derek Carr has a 101.5 rating, completing 63.5% of his passes for a 7.7 y/a with 24 TDs and 6 INTs. That is really good, guys.
14.) Houston Texans (6-5 = 232-234)
In the last four games where the Texans are 4-0, they have allowed just 35 points, including three games without a TD, and allowed at most 268 yards. This is defense close to what the Broncos played early in the year. The Texans obviously have Watt, but have more than that, including a deep secondary and a d-line that is playing nicely around Watt. Just imagine if Jadeveon Clowney approaches the guy we thought he would be. By the way, this is random, but the look of games at Reliant Stadium look so much different with the turf - it was so dark against New Orleans I thought the game was in the Superdome for the first half.
13.) Buffalo Bills (5-6 = 266-257)
Imagine if the Bills defense has stayed fully healthy and approached what they were in 2014, something we all though was a given with Rex Ryan coming aboard. The defense hasn't been bad, but we all expected more, and if they were more than what they've been the Bills would probably be 7-4 right now and a clear WC favorite. Instead, they are in a dog-fight, but one they can win. Somehow, it is the offense that has carried them though.
12.) Indianapolis Colts (6-5 = 249-260)
What the Colts have really shown in their 4-0 performance with Hasselbeck starting is that maybe this roster is better than people think. Hasselbeck played really well against Houston, but in the other games he's been a classic game manager. The line is better than people think. The defense is better than people think, and especially better coached. But they really aren't that far away. What the Colts need is for Luck to come back and play the way he played in 2014, and they desperately need impact pass rushers. But even without those, they are good enough to go 4-0.
11.) New York Jets (6-5 = 272-228)
The Jets may rue that no-show against Oakland, and the relative no-show against Philadelphia if they end up outside. The Jets are definitely one of the best six AFC teams. The defense has been really good for much of the season (again, apart from that Oakland game - strange things happen when these two meet out there), and the offense is the best Jets offense since the first 11 games of the Favre year. This Jets team could make noise in the playoffs, but they have to get there first.
10.) Kansas City Chiefs (6-5 = 287-220)
The Chiefs have won five games in a row, and in their remaining five games none of them look to be games where the Chiefs won't be underdogs. This last game was by far the closest they have come to losing. Oakland can pose some challenges given their strength at o-line against the Chiefs rush, and the Raiders are usually good for a win against the Chiefs even when Oakland was bad, but the Chiefs really have a great shot here at the playoffs. It helps that they only have two AFC losses so far. The Chargers and Chiefs will randomly win in each other's building all the time also. I don't think they win out, but 10-6 is very much in play here.
9.) Pittsburgh Steelers (6-5 = 266-230)
That loss hurts even for an out of conference loss. The offense is so good all the time, it seems like they'll never not score. Ben just flicks these 40-yard bombs on point. If Bryant and Wheaton had better hands they would be unstoppable. Issue for Pittsburgh is with the upcoming schedule, is five losses in the bank too many. I'm sure the Big-3 of hte AFC (Broncos, Bengals, Patriots) want no part of Pittsburgh - Denver and Cincinnati get to help that happen with head-to-head games left.
8.) Green Bay Packers (7-4 = 262-215)
I have no idea what is going on. Aaron Rodgers is barely over 60% completions for the season. His passer rating is below 100, and if it ends that way it would be the first time for him since 2008. He's now had two straight games where he's around 50% throwing. Devante Adams is an absolute disaster. It looks like Jordy Nelson was a lot more integral than people realized. It is stunning but the Packers have scored just 10 points more than the maligned Broncos offense.
7.) Minnesota Vikings (8-3 = 231-194)
The Vikings defense is really good but it is hard to say what they do well other than make stops in the red zone. They don't get a ton of sacks or turnovers, and while they have a lot of impact players, most are not in their prime, some before (Barr, Rhodes, Floyd) or after (Newman, Newman, Newman). Still, they are 8-3. The schedule gets really tough ahead, but they've been winning all year long by doing 'the little things', and two more of those and they're almost assured to be in. Also, last week showed why we should never overstate the importance of those statement games like the one they lost to Green Bay. Just a week later, they are back alone in first place.
6.) Seattle Seahawks (6-5 = 267-222)
This recent 4-1 stretch has people thinking the Seahawks are going to do what they did last year, which is finish 6-0 after a 6-4 start (or a 10-2 finish after a 2-2 start). But this Seahawks team is very different, as they've done this almost all with offense. Even in the loss, they scored 32 points. Now, the Steelers decided that they wouldn't cover or tackle - that's nice of them. There is a real issue with their secondary though. The Steelers pose more challenges than most, but this is a recurring theme.
5.) Denver Broncos (9-2 = 252-207)
Great win, by why do people feel like Osweiler has played himself into the starting role? Is a 23-42 performance for 270 yards with numerous missed throws and an inability to quickly recognize pressure. Also I love the idea that Osweiler allows Kubiak to play hist style, when the drive to make it 21-14, 21-17 and 24-21 all had Osweiler having his best throws from the shotgun. I still feel a somewhat healthy Manning gives them a higher ceiling. The ceiling of the Manning-led Broncos is the team that beat Green Bay 29-10 and outgained them 500-140. The ceiling for the Osweiler-led Broncos was what we just saw.
4.) Cincinnati Bengals (9-2 = 297-193)
The Bengals got back to winning - many will write it was because they weren't playing a night game, but really it was they were a playing a team that was worse than Arizona. They bludgeoned the Rams, and if they had just beaten Houston as they probably should have done, they would have the inside track for the #1 seed. Still, with the Steelers losing they probably have the division. The goal here is clear: win out and the Bengals are no worse than the #2 seed, and if the Patriots slip again, they are the #1 seed. The schedule is tough, but they are the AFC's most balanced, and currently healthiest, team.
3.) New England Patriots (10-1 = 347-212)
It was really just a matter of time. Since the dominant win over Miami (36-7 on Thursday Night), they won a sleepy game against Washington, should have lost to the Giants, played poorly against Buffalo and then finally lost. They haven't gotten to 30 points since that Miami game. In those 4 games, Brady is completing less than 60% of his passes, with a 7.4 y/a and a 90.3 passer rating. Things don't figure to get immediately better with Gronk out a week or two, but there are two bright spots. First, most of the injured guys will be back for the playoffs, and secondly, the Eagles and their current offensive defense is a nice antidote for a team that is struggling (in the relative sense) to score.
2.) Arizona Cardinals (9-2 = 355-229)
The Cardinals didn't win big, and looked somewhat sloppy, but road divisional games are not the best indicators. Around this time last year, New England beat the Jets 17-16 in New York. The Cardinals showed they are good enough to play their 'C' game on the road against a divisional rival and win. They get another chance to do that this upcoming weekend. The key for them is the game against Minnesota in two weeks. Win that game and they can play .500 in the other two and get the #2 seed. It is nice that the three biggest games left on their schedule (Minnesota, Green Bay, Seattle) are all at home.
1.) Carolina Panthers (11-0 = 332-205)
Now that they're the only undefeated team we can put what the Panthers did in perspective. They may be the worst team to start 11-0 (the 2009 Colts would give them a nice run, but historically will be placed higher because they had Peyton), but they are also probably better than the other recent forgotten teams to make it deep without losing. They are better than the 2012 Falcons that started 8-0. A good comp for them is a higher ceiling version of the 2008 Titans, a team that started 10-0. The Panthers defense has always been good, but what is more shocking is an offense that schemes and Cams its way to 30 a game. If they score 30 a game, they won't lose. Honestly, the biggest risk to the undefeated season may be this week in New Orleans, or maybe in Week 16, when they go to New York to play the 'Perfect Season' killers in the Giants.
Projecting the Playoff Field
AFC
1.) New England Patriots = 14-2
2.) Cincinnati Bengals = 13-3
3.) Denver Broncos = 12-4
4.) Indianapolis Colts = 9-7
5.) Kansas City Chiefs = 10-6
6.) New York Jets = 9-7
NFC
1.) Carolina Panthers = 15-1
2.) Arizona Cardinals = 13-3
3.) Green Bay Packers = 11-5
4.) Washington Redskins = 8-8
5.) Minnesota Vikings = 11-5
6.) Seattle Seahawks = 10-6
Looking Ahead to Next Week's Games
16.) Jacksonville Jaguars (4-7) @ Tennessee Titans (2-9) (1:00 - CBS)
15.) San Francisco 49ers (3-8) @ Chicago Bears (5-6) (1:00 - FOX)
14.) Baltimore Ravens (4-7) @ Miami Dolphins (4-7) (1:00 - CBS)
I call it "Why are we playing these games?" Sunday, as these are the three games where neither team has realistic playoff aspirations. The Bears and Jaguars, I guess, you can say have some shot, but in reality they don't. I have nothing really to say about these games.
13.) Denver Broncos (9-2) @ San Diego Chargers (3-8) (4:05 - CBS)
12.) Philadelphia Eagles (4-7) @ New England Patriots (10-1) (4:25 - FOX)
11.) Cincinnati Bengals (9-2) @ Cleveland Browns (2-9) (1:00 - FOX)
10.) Arizona Cardinals (9-2) @ St. Louis Rams (4-7) (1:00 - FOX)
I call it "Who will not avoid the upset?" Sunday, as all four of these games feature one of the teams in the 9-2 or 10-1 group playing against a team at least five games worse than it. The Rams have already knocked off the Cardinals once and now get them in St. Louis, so that game looks the most intriguing. the Broncos and Chargers is hilarious is that the Chargers were a trendy preseason pick to upset Denver in the AFC West, and now meet six games worse yet they're the one who HAS their starting QB. The Eagles get a chance to not give up 45 points, and the Brown, fresh off their latest disaster and potentially starting Austin Davis, get to play the machine of Cincinnati.
9.) Atlanta Falcons (6-5) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-6) (1:00 - FOX)
8.) Green Bay Packers (7-4) @ Detroit Lions (4-7) (TNF - NFLN)
7.) Dallas Cowboys (3-8) @ Washington Redskins (5-6) (MNF - ESPN)
I call it "Don't Slip Up" Weekend, as the NFL Week starts with a game that looks a lot better now than it did three weeks ago, as the Packers play their longtime nemesis. The Lions can get a sweep in the series for the first time since Reagan was president. The Falcons look to also pay back Tampa and finally get back on the right track - you can argue a Buccaneers win shoves them into the playoff race as well. Finally, the Redskins have it all in front of them. They are 5-1 at home, with a clear path towards an NFC East title, but to start they have to avoid slipping up against Matt Cassel. Be warned, Redskins fans, as it was the Redskins winning with Colt McCoy in Dallas on Monday that eventually kept Dallas from the #1 seed.
6.) New York Jets (6-5) @ New York Giants (5-6) (1:00 - CBS)
I call it "The Battle of New York" Sunday, as we get our quadrennial matchup between the two New York teams. Both are in the thick of the playoff race but currently outside looking in. The loser will be facing a last four games where they may need to go 4-0. The Giants, given games to come against Minnesota and Carolina, are probably in worse shape, but it is nice to have them play with both needing the game badly.
5.) Carolina Panthers (11-0) @ New Orleans Saints (4-7) (4:25 - FOX)
I call it "The Chase for 16-0, Season 2015, Week 12" Sunday, as we get the latest weekly TV Show. Can the Panthers, yes, the Panthers, go 16-0? I spoke about it before, but people will finally start turning their attention to Carolina, which so far had been a 2008 Titans or 2012 Falcons type undefeated chase. Speaking of the Falcons, they stated 8-0 and then went to New Orleans against a Saints team that missed the playoffs, and lost 27-31. Also, the Saints would love to pay Carolina back for the last time these two played in the Superdome, losing 41-10.
4.) Kansas City Chiefs (6-5) @ Oakland Raiders (5-6) (4:05 - CBS)
3.) Houston Texans (6-5) @ Buffalo Bills (5-6) (1:00 - CBS)
2.) Indianapolis Colts (6-5) @ Pittsburgh Steelers (6-5) (SNF - NBC)
I call it "Moving Day, v. AFC", as if you look at all the AFC teams that are either 6-5 or 5-6, the teams that are more or less in the Wild Card race, they play each other six more times - with half of those being these three. All three games have wild card (and for Houston and Indianapolis, division) implications. The winners, especially if it is KC or Pittsburgh, or if one of the Colts / Texans group win, are in real good shape. If the Raiders or Bills lose, they may be done barring a 4-0 run. Also, Matt Hasselbeck gets another chance at revenge against Pittsburgh, which is nice.
1.) Seattle Seahawks (6-5) @ Minnesota Vikings (8-3) (1:00 - FOX)
I call it "Seahawks, meet your past" Sunday, as the Seahawks travel outdoors to Minnesota to play a team that somewhat resembles themselves from 2012 - a young, up and coming group with a fresh QB and a great defense. The Vikings are 8-3 but still a little under the radar after losing their only 'statement game' against Green Bay. The Seahawks are 4-1 recently, but suddenly are an offense-first team. This game figures to be low scoring and with temperatures around freezing at kick-off, another beautiful outdoor game in Minnesota, Cherish these now before they go back indoors next year.
/In lieu of reviewing picks I didn't make, a quick MVP prediction update
5.) JJ Watt - Still the best defensive player in the NFL, he suddenly leads the league in sacks again, has an outside shot at another 20 sack season, and has his team tied for first place because the defense has been 2002 Bucs good for four games. If they make the playoffs, and if Carolina falls at any point, this argument will get made, a lot.
4.) Andy Dalton - Forget this whole "he can't play in primetime" thing. He wasn't the reason they lost to Arizona, and his season-long stats are still amazing. He has a higher completion percentage, yards per attempt and TD percentage than Tom Brady. If they run the table and the Pats drop another game, the Bengals are your #1 seed.
3.) Carson Palmer - Carson Palmer had a slightly off game which drops him for me below Brady. Overall, Palmer has been almost exactly as good as Tom Brady this year. Palmer has thrown it fewer times than Brady, but has a better TD percentage, far better yards per attempt, an identical QB rating, and has, on a per-play basis, been better than Brady (Football Outsiders DVOA has him #1). He may have more weapons, but he plays in an offense that can suppress these rate-based stats given the deep-ball nature of what they do. He also has the narrative of coming back from a 2nd ACL tear.
2.) Tom Brady - I get it, he has no one to throw to, well guess what: it shows. His passer rating is now down to a very good 106.7, instead of the 110+ it was for most of the year. Like always, he's not throwing picks, but he's also not having as great of a year as his numbers look. Now that the Patriots aren't undefeated, that narrative goes away. I still give him loads of credit for playing well with so many guys around him going down, but the bulk of his numbers, and all his best games, came before those guys went down.
1.) Cam Newton - If they go undefeated, he's almost assured to win. Yes, his conventional stats are not great, but let's not forget that when you add rushing value, where he is far above any other QB, it becomes a lot closer. When factoring in rushing TDs, Newton would be #2 in the NFL in total TDs. When you look at total turnovers (including fumbles), the gap between Newton and Brady becomes 11 to 8. All those players that are missing for Brady... well those guys were never there to begin with for Newton. Let's remember Brady's #1 WR (LaFell) now used to be Newton's #2 guy. If they go undefeated no one needs to make an argument, but even had the Patriots escaped 21-17 against Denver, I would still have Newton #1.
Power Rankings
32.) Cleveland Browns (2-9 = 213-310)
I don't even know what to say about that loss - so quick betting tangent. I took the Ravens +4.5, which looked great for most of the game. Up 27-20 at the 2:00, I was sure I was good. Then the Browns tied and the Ravens went 3-and-out. At this point I only had to avoid an outcome where the Browns won with a TD, which seemed likely since most would settle for a field goal. Somehow, it went back and forth, and the biggest thing I wanted to avoid was the game going to OT and the potential of a Browns TD there, so I was rooting for the kicker to hit the 51 yard kick. Instead, we got what we got. I still won. It is games like this that betting is fun. However, had the Browns won the game on the same play and covered, I may have given up football forever.
31.) Tennessee Titans (2-9 = 203-257)
I regretted this ranking about five slots later, but was too lazy to change. The Titans are not a good team, with really nothing but marginal players everywhere. Sure, some of these guys have potential, like Mariota, or Dorial Green-Beckham, or Jurrel Casey. The Titans will rise as far, really, as Mariota will take them, and while he's been good, some of the bloom is coming off of the rose, especially when he struggles to read the Raiders defense.
30.) Philadelphia Eagles (4-7 = 243-274)
The Eagles may be the most bipolar team in the NFL this year. They've won games 27-7 and 39-17, but now lost two games by the combined score of 31-90. And did they play the top teams in those games? No, they played the Buccaneers (4-5 entering that game) and the Lions (3-7). Look, I don't think Chip Kelly is a disaster, but when the Buccaneers and Lions solve your offense, and your defense quits on you, it is a really bad sign.
29.) San Francisco 49ers (3-8 = 152-271)
It speaks volumes how far the 49ers have fallen that a close loss to the Cardinals at home in a game that was nowhere nearly as close as the score indicated and people hailed it as a really nice performance. Also speaking volumes: no one is even thinking that Colin Kaepernick was benched unfairly, or has any hope of coming back to play ahead of Blaine Gabbert.
28.) Miami Dolphins (4-7 = 225-287)
So it wasn't Joe Philbin's fault... maybe it is the offensive coordinator Bill Lazor's fault!? Maybe it is Ryan Tannehill's fault. Maybe it is his fault for not really getting any better in Year #4, and his fault for not getting the most out of a talented set of receivers. The Dolphins brief renassiance to 4-4 has been showed as just that, brief, and that win over Philadelphia looks a lot less impressive in retrospect.
27.) Dallas Cowboys (3-8 = 204-261)
The Cowboys will likely finish last in the NFC East, but it is almost assured they would have won this division with Romo healthy, likely going away. Tony Romo will end the season playing two complete games (2-0), and two half games (1-1), and missing the other 12. Just a disastrous season for him and the Cowboys after the great surprise of their 12-4 run last year.
26.) New Orleans Saints (4-7 = 261-339)
Maybe the issue wasn't Rob Ryan (hint: the issue is almost always Rob Ryan), but the players. Actually, maybe the issue is all too suddenly, people have figured out how to defend that offense. Sure, they've lost players and weapons, but they never had great players and weapons to begin with. Unless you think Jimmy Graham was THIS important. Drew Brees is not having a bad season by normal standards, but there is no explosiveness, and limited protection. For everything written about Peyton's demise, the demise of the Brees & Payton Saints is all the more shocking.
25.) Baltimore Ravens (4-7 = 259-276)
If Joe Flacco was healthy, and if they had won even one of the close games they lost (they should have definitely won the Jaguars game, for instance), they would 5-6, a fringe playoff contender, and 7-8 spots higher up. Instead, they are playing for pride, but the Ravens are a prideful bunch. Also, if you take away the two bad interceptions, Matt Schaub didn't look all too bad.
24.) Jacksonville Jaguars (4-7 = 236-299)
If the AFC South was better, or hte AFC overall was better, this would be seen as a pretty lost season in Jacksonville, but instead they are within striking distance of the AFC South if they win their head-to-head games, and the play of their offensive skill guys has been a true bright spot. Bortles needs to improve in a lot of areas, namely his accuracy, but the Allens will help that transition. Now if they could just fix that defense.
23.) San Diego Chargers (3-8 = 244-307)
The Chargers are having a lost season. If not for a miracle win against the Chiefs in Week 17 in 2013, this would be year #6 without a playoff game. But in those six years, we still have been able to watch Philip Rivers throw to Antonio Gates. The TE in that equation will be going to Canton some day - but maybe the QB should too. There is no question, though, if there was a Canton Wing for QB-Receiver combinations, the Rivers to Gates would get in 1st ballot.
22.) Detroit Lions (4-7 = 230-288)
Nothing wakes you up like a 45-10 loss in London, I guess. The Lions have been fantastic the last three games, especially on the defensive end, where they went to Green Bay and shut down the Packers (admittedly, that is kind of a thing now), then held Oakland under 10, and then did what they did to Philadelphia. The Lions were never as bad as they looked, and aren't as good as they currently do, but they might just be closer to team that wins 45-14 than the one that loses 45-10.
21.) St. Louis Rams (4-7 = 186-230)
I don't know if Jeff Fisher will get fired, but if he does it will be for not winning that Bradford for Foles trade. I won't say he lost it. It cleared a lot of cap space on a wasted contract, and they got the better picks in the deal, but he didn't win it either. That offense is so pathetic that they run 3-4 sweeps with Tavon Austin each game pretty much because that in the only way to gain chunk yardage. What was so promising in Week 1 is so disastrous now.
20.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-6 = 248-279)
Not a surprising loss that being the second straight road game after a huge win in Philadelphia, but definitely an odd one. They never seemed to have any issue moving the ball. There were no truly bad plays of performances. Yet they only scored 12 points? Jameis again looked pretty good, as did the weapons and defense, but somehow they lost by 13? Not sure what happened, but on to the next game.
19.) Chicago Bears (5-6 = 231-264)
The Bears show how much coaching matters. John Fox, and more so, Vic Fangio and Adam Gase, came in and took more or less the same roster that disastrously went 5-11 last year, and have the team at 5-6, with one of the losses being with Jimmy Clausen. They just went to Lambeau and beat the Packers, not only beat them but did so 17-13. That is a game Lovie Smith dreamed about when he was the Bears coach, and it happened despite them having pretty much no true impact players on defense.
18.) Atlanta Falcons (6-5 = 260-234)
The Falcons started 5-0, four of those wins coming against the garbage NFC East. Since, they are 1-5, with the only win being 10-7 against Zach Mettenberger and the Titans, who summarily fired their coach two games later. They are somewhat like Tampa Bay, where staitsically it all looks good, but they've now lost three straight home games to the likes of Minnesota (fine, explainable), Tampa Bay (less explainable), and Indianapolis (with Hasselbeck, not at all explainable). Matt Ryan is throwing too many picks, but the defense is not playing up either. Maybe those ex-Seahawks DCs are just not great coaches outside of the Legion of Boom.
17.) Washington Redskins (5-6 = 241-267)
By comparing upcoming schedules, the Redskins are probably the odds on favorite to win the division. Now, they have a serious problem winning away from home (they are 5-1 at home, 0-5 on the road), but if they win next Monday against Matt Cassel and win their last two home games that is 8-8 and might be good enough. Amazing, really, that this Kirk Cousins led team will make the playoffs.
16.) New York Giants (5-6 = 287-273)
They are still better than the Redskins, so much so that I am sure all the other NFC Playoff Teams are really hoping Washington hangs onto the NFC East (and I'm sure that team in Foxboro feels the same way). Still, that was the first truly classic shitty Manning performance. The Giants, had they won, would've been two games up on the division with five to play. Now, with a really tough schedule coming up, they have to do one game better than Washington. What a tough loss, one that will be Agent Zero for the end of the Coughlin era if it goes that way.
15.) Oakland Raiders (5-6 = 264-280)
Big win, even if it was sloppy and somewhat aided by the refereeing. The Raiders quickly emerged from that two game malaise to find themselves just a game back, and with a nice tie-breaking edge with just three AFC losses and a win against the Jets. The schedule is tough, and even if they miss the playoffs the 2015 Raiders are not the 2010-11 Raiders that also finished 8-8. The future is bright. Let's not overlook that Derek Carr has a 101.5 rating, completing 63.5% of his passes for a 7.7 y/a with 24 TDs and 6 INTs. That is really good, guys.
14.) Houston Texans (6-5 = 232-234)
In the last four games where the Texans are 4-0, they have allowed just 35 points, including three games without a TD, and allowed at most 268 yards. This is defense close to what the Broncos played early in the year. The Texans obviously have Watt, but have more than that, including a deep secondary and a d-line that is playing nicely around Watt. Just imagine if Jadeveon Clowney approaches the guy we thought he would be. By the way, this is random, but the look of games at Reliant Stadium look so much different with the turf - it was so dark against New Orleans I thought the game was in the Superdome for the first half.
13.) Buffalo Bills (5-6 = 266-257)
Imagine if the Bills defense has stayed fully healthy and approached what they were in 2014, something we all though was a given with Rex Ryan coming aboard. The defense hasn't been bad, but we all expected more, and if they were more than what they've been the Bills would probably be 7-4 right now and a clear WC favorite. Instead, they are in a dog-fight, but one they can win. Somehow, it is the offense that has carried them though.
12.) Indianapolis Colts (6-5 = 249-260)
What the Colts have really shown in their 4-0 performance with Hasselbeck starting is that maybe this roster is better than people think. Hasselbeck played really well against Houston, but in the other games he's been a classic game manager. The line is better than people think. The defense is better than people think, and especially better coached. But they really aren't that far away. What the Colts need is for Luck to come back and play the way he played in 2014, and they desperately need impact pass rushers. But even without those, they are good enough to go 4-0.
11.) New York Jets (6-5 = 272-228)
The Jets may rue that no-show against Oakland, and the relative no-show against Philadelphia if they end up outside. The Jets are definitely one of the best six AFC teams. The defense has been really good for much of the season (again, apart from that Oakland game - strange things happen when these two meet out there), and the offense is the best Jets offense since the first 11 games of the Favre year. This Jets team could make noise in the playoffs, but they have to get there first.
10.) Kansas City Chiefs (6-5 = 287-220)
The Chiefs have won five games in a row, and in their remaining five games none of them look to be games where the Chiefs won't be underdogs. This last game was by far the closest they have come to losing. Oakland can pose some challenges given their strength at o-line against the Chiefs rush, and the Raiders are usually good for a win against the Chiefs even when Oakland was bad, but the Chiefs really have a great shot here at the playoffs. It helps that they only have two AFC losses so far. The Chargers and Chiefs will randomly win in each other's building all the time also. I don't think they win out, but 10-6 is very much in play here.
9.) Pittsburgh Steelers (6-5 = 266-230)
That loss hurts even for an out of conference loss. The offense is so good all the time, it seems like they'll never not score. Ben just flicks these 40-yard bombs on point. If Bryant and Wheaton had better hands they would be unstoppable. Issue for Pittsburgh is with the upcoming schedule, is five losses in the bank too many. I'm sure the Big-3 of hte AFC (Broncos, Bengals, Patriots) want no part of Pittsburgh - Denver and Cincinnati get to help that happen with head-to-head games left.
8.) Green Bay Packers (7-4 = 262-215)
I have no idea what is going on. Aaron Rodgers is barely over 60% completions for the season. His passer rating is below 100, and if it ends that way it would be the first time for him since 2008. He's now had two straight games where he's around 50% throwing. Devante Adams is an absolute disaster. It looks like Jordy Nelson was a lot more integral than people realized. It is stunning but the Packers have scored just 10 points more than the maligned Broncos offense.
7.) Minnesota Vikings (8-3 = 231-194)
The Vikings defense is really good but it is hard to say what they do well other than make stops in the red zone. They don't get a ton of sacks or turnovers, and while they have a lot of impact players, most are not in their prime, some before (Barr, Rhodes, Floyd) or after (Newman, Newman, Newman). Still, they are 8-3. The schedule gets really tough ahead, but they've been winning all year long by doing 'the little things', and two more of those and they're almost assured to be in. Also, last week showed why we should never overstate the importance of those statement games like the one they lost to Green Bay. Just a week later, they are back alone in first place.
6.) Seattle Seahawks (6-5 = 267-222)
This recent 4-1 stretch has people thinking the Seahawks are going to do what they did last year, which is finish 6-0 after a 6-4 start (or a 10-2 finish after a 2-2 start). But this Seahawks team is very different, as they've done this almost all with offense. Even in the loss, they scored 32 points. Now, the Steelers decided that they wouldn't cover or tackle - that's nice of them. There is a real issue with their secondary though. The Steelers pose more challenges than most, but this is a recurring theme.
5.) Denver Broncos (9-2 = 252-207)
Great win, by why do people feel like Osweiler has played himself into the starting role? Is a 23-42 performance for 270 yards with numerous missed throws and an inability to quickly recognize pressure. Also I love the idea that Osweiler allows Kubiak to play hist style, when the drive to make it 21-14, 21-17 and 24-21 all had Osweiler having his best throws from the shotgun. I still feel a somewhat healthy Manning gives them a higher ceiling. The ceiling of the Manning-led Broncos is the team that beat Green Bay 29-10 and outgained them 500-140. The ceiling for the Osweiler-led Broncos was what we just saw.
4.) Cincinnati Bengals (9-2 = 297-193)
The Bengals got back to winning - many will write it was because they weren't playing a night game, but really it was they were a playing a team that was worse than Arizona. They bludgeoned the Rams, and if they had just beaten Houston as they probably should have done, they would have the inside track for the #1 seed. Still, with the Steelers losing they probably have the division. The goal here is clear: win out and the Bengals are no worse than the #2 seed, and if the Patriots slip again, they are the #1 seed. The schedule is tough, but they are the AFC's most balanced, and currently healthiest, team.
3.) New England Patriots (10-1 = 347-212)
It was really just a matter of time. Since the dominant win over Miami (36-7 on Thursday Night), they won a sleepy game against Washington, should have lost to the Giants, played poorly against Buffalo and then finally lost. They haven't gotten to 30 points since that Miami game. In those 4 games, Brady is completing less than 60% of his passes, with a 7.4 y/a and a 90.3 passer rating. Things don't figure to get immediately better with Gronk out a week or two, but there are two bright spots. First, most of the injured guys will be back for the playoffs, and secondly, the Eagles and their current offensive defense is a nice antidote for a team that is struggling (in the relative sense) to score.
2.) Arizona Cardinals (9-2 = 355-229)
The Cardinals didn't win big, and looked somewhat sloppy, but road divisional games are not the best indicators. Around this time last year, New England beat the Jets 17-16 in New York. The Cardinals showed they are good enough to play their 'C' game on the road against a divisional rival and win. They get another chance to do that this upcoming weekend. The key for them is the game against Minnesota in two weeks. Win that game and they can play .500 in the other two and get the #2 seed. It is nice that the three biggest games left on their schedule (Minnesota, Green Bay, Seattle) are all at home.
1.) Carolina Panthers (11-0 = 332-205)
Now that they're the only undefeated team we can put what the Panthers did in perspective. They may be the worst team to start 11-0 (the 2009 Colts would give them a nice run, but historically will be placed higher because they had Peyton), but they are also probably better than the other recent forgotten teams to make it deep without losing. They are better than the 2012 Falcons that started 8-0. A good comp for them is a higher ceiling version of the 2008 Titans, a team that started 10-0. The Panthers defense has always been good, but what is more shocking is an offense that schemes and Cams its way to 30 a game. If they score 30 a game, they won't lose. Honestly, the biggest risk to the undefeated season may be this week in New Orleans, or maybe in Week 16, when they go to New York to play the 'Perfect Season' killers in the Giants.
Projecting the Playoff Field
AFC
1.) New England Patriots = 14-2
2.) Cincinnati Bengals = 13-3
3.) Denver Broncos = 12-4
4.) Indianapolis Colts = 9-7
5.) Kansas City Chiefs = 10-6
6.) New York Jets = 9-7
NFC
1.) Carolina Panthers = 15-1
2.) Arizona Cardinals = 13-3
3.) Green Bay Packers = 11-5
4.) Washington Redskins = 8-8
5.) Minnesota Vikings = 11-5
6.) Seattle Seahawks = 10-6
Looking Ahead to Next Week's Games
16.) Jacksonville Jaguars (4-7) @ Tennessee Titans (2-9) (1:00 - CBS)
15.) San Francisco 49ers (3-8) @ Chicago Bears (5-6) (1:00 - FOX)
14.) Baltimore Ravens (4-7) @ Miami Dolphins (4-7) (1:00 - CBS)
I call it "Why are we playing these games?" Sunday, as these are the three games where neither team has realistic playoff aspirations. The Bears and Jaguars, I guess, you can say have some shot, but in reality they don't. I have nothing really to say about these games.
13.) Denver Broncos (9-2) @ San Diego Chargers (3-8) (4:05 - CBS)
12.) Philadelphia Eagles (4-7) @ New England Patriots (10-1) (4:25 - FOX)
11.) Cincinnati Bengals (9-2) @ Cleveland Browns (2-9) (1:00 - FOX)
10.) Arizona Cardinals (9-2) @ St. Louis Rams (4-7) (1:00 - FOX)
I call it "Who will not avoid the upset?" Sunday, as all four of these games feature one of the teams in the 9-2 or 10-1 group playing against a team at least five games worse than it. The Rams have already knocked off the Cardinals once and now get them in St. Louis, so that game looks the most intriguing. the Broncos and Chargers is hilarious is that the Chargers were a trendy preseason pick to upset Denver in the AFC West, and now meet six games worse yet they're the one who HAS their starting QB. The Eagles get a chance to not give up 45 points, and the Brown, fresh off their latest disaster and potentially starting Austin Davis, get to play the machine of Cincinnati.
9.) Atlanta Falcons (6-5) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-6) (1:00 - FOX)
8.) Green Bay Packers (7-4) @ Detroit Lions (4-7) (TNF - NFLN)
7.) Dallas Cowboys (3-8) @ Washington Redskins (5-6) (MNF - ESPN)
I call it "Don't Slip Up" Weekend, as the NFL Week starts with a game that looks a lot better now than it did three weeks ago, as the Packers play their longtime nemesis. The Lions can get a sweep in the series for the first time since Reagan was president. The Falcons look to also pay back Tampa and finally get back on the right track - you can argue a Buccaneers win shoves them into the playoff race as well. Finally, the Redskins have it all in front of them. They are 5-1 at home, with a clear path towards an NFC East title, but to start they have to avoid slipping up against Matt Cassel. Be warned, Redskins fans, as it was the Redskins winning with Colt McCoy in Dallas on Monday that eventually kept Dallas from the #1 seed.
6.) New York Jets (6-5) @ New York Giants (5-6) (1:00 - CBS)
I call it "The Battle of New York" Sunday, as we get our quadrennial matchup between the two New York teams. Both are in the thick of the playoff race but currently outside looking in. The loser will be facing a last four games where they may need to go 4-0. The Giants, given games to come against Minnesota and Carolina, are probably in worse shape, but it is nice to have them play with both needing the game badly.
5.) Carolina Panthers (11-0) @ New Orleans Saints (4-7) (4:25 - FOX)
I call it "The Chase for 16-0, Season 2015, Week 12" Sunday, as we get the latest weekly TV Show. Can the Panthers, yes, the Panthers, go 16-0? I spoke about it before, but people will finally start turning their attention to Carolina, which so far had been a 2008 Titans or 2012 Falcons type undefeated chase. Speaking of the Falcons, they stated 8-0 and then went to New Orleans against a Saints team that missed the playoffs, and lost 27-31. Also, the Saints would love to pay Carolina back for the last time these two played in the Superdome, losing 41-10.
4.) Kansas City Chiefs (6-5) @ Oakland Raiders (5-6) (4:05 - CBS)
3.) Houston Texans (6-5) @ Buffalo Bills (5-6) (1:00 - CBS)
2.) Indianapolis Colts (6-5) @ Pittsburgh Steelers (6-5) (SNF - NBC)
I call it "Moving Day, v. AFC", as if you look at all the AFC teams that are either 6-5 or 5-6, the teams that are more or less in the Wild Card race, they play each other six more times - with half of those being these three. All three games have wild card (and for Houston and Indianapolis, division) implications. The winners, especially if it is KC or Pittsburgh, or if one of the Colts / Texans group win, are in real good shape. If the Raiders or Bills lose, they may be done barring a 4-0 run. Also, Matt Hasselbeck gets another chance at revenge against Pittsburgh, which is nice.
1.) Seattle Seahawks (6-5) @ Minnesota Vikings (8-3) (1:00 - FOX)
I call it "Seahawks, meet your past" Sunday, as the Seahawks travel outdoors to Minnesota to play a team that somewhat resembles themselves from 2012 - a young, up and coming group with a fresh QB and a great defense. The Vikings are 8-3 but still a little under the radar after losing their only 'statement game' against Green Bay. The Seahawks are 4-1 recently, but suddenly are an offense-first team. This game figures to be low scoring and with temperatures around freezing at kick-off, another beautiful outdoor game in Minnesota, Cherish these now before they go back indoors next year.
