First, I'm not going to pretend the Packers @ Lions game didn't happen. It did. I actually bet on it, on the Packers. So with that....... HOLY GOD!!!!!
That's probably the luckiest betting win that I can remember. It almost beats out the time I lost a three-team tease because I teased an over / under to 'Over 38' in a game that would end 37-0. Yes, that happened.
Anyway, on to the (other) week 13 picks, but know I picked, and somehow covered, Packers (-2.5) over Lions.
Jacksonville Jaguars (4-7) @ Tennessee Titans (2-9) (TEN -2.5)
This game happened just three weeks ago, back then the winner would get itself right back into the AFC South race that featured co-leaders at 4-5. Now, they are both basically out of the race. I don't know I fully understand this line apart from a continued public love of Marcus Mariota, and somehow that the effect of their Week 1 blowout win is still in people's minds. The Titans are just not very good, and while Mariota has a bright future, The continued lack of frontline talent is still a concern. The Jaguars have, for right now, a better team and even with one of the Allen's out, I feel they are a strong value pick.
Jaguars 23 Titans 17 (JAX +2.5)
Cincinnati Bengals (9-2) @ Cleveland Browns (2-9) (CIN -10.5)
So, apparently all of Joe Haden, Justin Gilbert and Travis Benjamin are out. Now, Gilbert is not good and Haden hasn't been there for a while, but the Browns need Benjamin or else the Bengals will just clue in on Barnidge. The line is high, but the Bengals have consistently covered lines like this - even against a more healthy version of the Browns a few weeks ago. I hate going with a favorite of this size on the road, but the Bengals are a machine against bad teams, and the Browns are missing key guys.
Bengals 30 Browns 13 (CIN -10.5)
San Francisco 49ers (3-8) @ Chicago Bears (5-6) (CHI -8.5)
The Bears went from perceived as so weak to now getting nearly 9 points in the span of like three weeks. I realize the last time we saw them they were beating Green Bay in Green Bay, but I think this is an overvalued line. As the Packers again showed last night, they are, currently, an eminently beatable team. The 49ers seem at least more consistent with Gabbert at QB. They'll score between 13-23 points, the defense will somehow be reasonably good despite all the defections the last two years. I think the 49ers will cover, but placing any level of trust in Blaine Gabbert is really dangerous.
49ers 20 Bears 23 (SF +8.5)
Atlanta Falcons (6-5) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-6) (PICK)
The Falcons are in free-fall, one that officially started when they dropped a home game to Tampa four weeks ago (they entered that game 6-1). The Buccaneers were 2-4 entering that game, and have since gone 3-2. They are quite honestly ships passing in the night. The Buccaneers defense will swallow the run and force turnovers, two things that are quite the recipe for beating the Falcons. The line reflects the new-found confidence in Tampa Bay, but I feel like the Falcons are due to have a game where they hold onto the ball. On a play-by-play basis, the Falcons are better, and if they don't turn hte ball over, they should win.
Falcons 27 Buccaneers 23 (ATL)
Baltimore Ravens (4-7) @ Miami Dolphins (4-7) (MIA -3.5)
Matt Schaub looked decent, right? I mean, when you remove the pick-sixes he threw, he wasn't all that bad. He threw in rythym, the run-game worked and overall it looked like a passable offense. Of course, that was against the Browns defense, and despite how disappointing the Dolphins have been, Miami poses a greater challenge. The Dolphins have been extremely up-and-down lately, so I am not too concerned by their awful game last week. I think they win and cover, because Schaub, even in a good game like last week, will thrown them picks.
Ravens 17 Dolphins 24 (MIA -3.5)
Arizona Cardinals (9-2) @ St. Louis Rams (4-7) (ARZ -7)
The last three times these two teams have squared off against each other, the Rams have done something significant. First, they tore Carson Palmer's ACL; then they injured Drew Stanton (who was half-decent) and forced the Ryan Lindley era upon the Cardinals, and this year they ended the brief run at perfection for Arizona. I think Arizona pays St. Louis back for all that in a big way. The Rams have to start Foles again, and he's completely lost out there currently. The Cardinals have the ability to extend leads and pounce on his mistakes to blow this open more than a TD.
Cardinals 27 Rams 13 (ARZ -7)
Houston Texans (6-5) @ Buffalo Bills (5-6) (BUF -3)
In some ways, in that cadre of AFC teams that are either 6-5 or 5-6, I'm pulling for all the 5-6 teams to win and the 6-5 teams to lose to leave us with a giant set of teams at 6-6. I do actually think there is a fair chance of that happening here. The Bills definitely need this game more as they have only one pathway into the playoffs. They also have the type of offense that should control Brian Hoyer and neutralize the Texans chances of scoring 24+. The Bills main concern is on offense, but so far in his career JJ Watt has been a superior player at home, so I'm less worried than a repeat of last year's game where Watt was utterly dominant and won the game by himself.
Texans 16 Bills 24 (BUF -3)
New York Jets (6-5) @ New York Giants (5-6) (NYJ -1)
Both these teams need this game badly, but if a few results go their way in other games, neither team needs this game badly. The Giants are probably more desperate. The Redskins have a far easier schedule here on out - this is actually one of the easier games for the Giants. For this matchup, if we look just to the trenches, the Jets have a huge edge. They have a great d-line and the Giants are missing nearly all their major starters on the o-line. Then again, with Revis out the cascade effect of a non-Revis covering OBJ and an even-worser non-non-Revis covering Randle is a scary proposition. I think the Giants are a little more desperate, and their defense which forces a lot of turnovers and generally stops the run is a good matchup against the Jets.
Jets 20 Giants 24 (NYG +1)
Seattle Seahawks (6-5) @ Minnesota Vikings (8-3) (PICK)
The Seahawks were favored early in the week, but the action seems to have concentrated more on the Vikings in recent days. It is not surprising why. The Seahawks recent offensive outburst occurred at home, and the last time we saw the Seahawks outside of Seattle was a pathetic showing in Dallas in a 13-12 win. The Vikings defense is excellent in the red zone, something the Seahawks struggled with early in the season. The Vikings offense doesn't match up too well, which is a real concern though, I could see another 13-12 type game, and the Vikings have been great in those games.
Seahawks 13 Vikings 17 (MIN)
Denver Broncos (9-2) @ San Diego Chargers (3-8) (DEN -3.5)
I don't even feel like talking about the whole Osweiler / Manning thing. Let me just say the Peyton Manning who played Weeks 1-7 would've beaten Chicago 17-15, and probably would have won this game too.
Broncos 27 Chargers 20 (DEN -3.5)
Philadelphia Eagles (4-7) @ New England Patriots (10-1) (NE -10.5)
There are actually a lot of trends and matchups that would point to Philadelphia. Teams coming off back-to-back big losses tend to cover in the next game because the line is artificially high (probably not the case). The Patriots are missing a lot of players and the Eagles defensive front can be dominant at times. Still, this is in New England, and this Eagles team so obviously quit on life the last two games. I can't imagine them getting up for this game, one that, if the Eagles go three-and-out a few times early, can snowball quickly.
Eagles 17 Patriots 38 (NE -10.5)
Carolina Panthers (11-0) @ New Orleans Saints (4-7) (CAR -7.5)
This line actually seems high. The Saints have the potential to play well in the Dome, and the Panthers haven't been the best team outside of Carolina (last weekend excluded). I could absolutely see the Panthers winning, but more like they did early in the season when they were winning by 3-7 points. The Panthers defense should swallow the Saints, but they can be beat deep if Brees gets time. The Saints have a high-risk defense that could get to Newton. I think the Saints also have a sense of pride and a loss here gives their opponent a really reasonable chance at 16-0 and ends their season. I think the Saints play close, but ultimately lose.
Panthers 27 Saints 24 (NO +7.5)
Kansas City Chiefs (6-5) @ Oakland Raiders (5-6) (KC -2.5)
Are the Chiefs really going to go from 1-5 to 11-5? This may be their toughest game left, and while that may sound like a dig at the Chiefs easy schedule, Oakland is a tough out. They've essentially been blown out twice, once by Cincinati and once by Minnesota - both teams that are good and arguably better than the Chiefs. The Raiders offense is for real. Derek Carr is playing like a Top-5 QB in 2015, and his o-line limits pressures and sacks about as good as anyone. They can get time against the Chiefs. The issue is the other side of the ball. The Raiders seem to do better against physical or talent-based offenses and struggle with scheme ones so that could be a problem. I think the Raiders win but would not be shocked if the Chiefs pull another one out.
Chiefs 23 Raiders 30 (OAK +2.5)
Indianapolis Colts (6-5) @ Pittsburgh Steelers (6-5) (PIT -7.5)
If the Steelers can't win this game against Matt Hasselbeck and the Colts, they don't deserve to make the playoffs.
Colts 17 Steelers 35 (PIT -7.5)
Dallas Cowboys (3-8) @ Washington Redskins (5-6) (WAS -4.5)
If the Redskins can't win this game, against Matt Cassel and the Cowboys, they don't deserve to make the playoffs.
Cowboys 14 Redskins 24 (WAS -4.5)
Enjoy the Games!!!
That's probably the luckiest betting win that I can remember. It almost beats out the time I lost a three-team tease because I teased an over / under to 'Over 38' in a game that would end 37-0. Yes, that happened.
Anyway, on to the (other) week 13 picks, but know I picked, and somehow covered, Packers (-2.5) over Lions.
Jacksonville Jaguars (4-7) @ Tennessee Titans (2-9) (TEN -2.5)
This game happened just three weeks ago, back then the winner would get itself right back into the AFC South race that featured co-leaders at 4-5. Now, they are both basically out of the race. I don't know I fully understand this line apart from a continued public love of Marcus Mariota, and somehow that the effect of their Week 1 blowout win is still in people's minds. The Titans are just not very good, and while Mariota has a bright future, The continued lack of frontline talent is still a concern. The Jaguars have, for right now, a better team and even with one of the Allen's out, I feel they are a strong value pick.
Jaguars 23 Titans 17 (JAX +2.5)
Cincinnati Bengals (9-2) @ Cleveland Browns (2-9) (CIN -10.5)
So, apparently all of Joe Haden, Justin Gilbert and Travis Benjamin are out. Now, Gilbert is not good and Haden hasn't been there for a while, but the Browns need Benjamin or else the Bengals will just clue in on Barnidge. The line is high, but the Bengals have consistently covered lines like this - even against a more healthy version of the Browns a few weeks ago. I hate going with a favorite of this size on the road, but the Bengals are a machine against bad teams, and the Browns are missing key guys.
Bengals 30 Browns 13 (CIN -10.5)
San Francisco 49ers (3-8) @ Chicago Bears (5-6) (CHI -8.5)
The Bears went from perceived as so weak to now getting nearly 9 points in the span of like three weeks. I realize the last time we saw them they were beating Green Bay in Green Bay, but I think this is an overvalued line. As the Packers again showed last night, they are, currently, an eminently beatable team. The 49ers seem at least more consistent with Gabbert at QB. They'll score between 13-23 points, the defense will somehow be reasonably good despite all the defections the last two years. I think the 49ers will cover, but placing any level of trust in Blaine Gabbert is really dangerous.
49ers 20 Bears 23 (SF +8.5)
Atlanta Falcons (6-5) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-6) (PICK)
The Falcons are in free-fall, one that officially started when they dropped a home game to Tampa four weeks ago (they entered that game 6-1). The Buccaneers were 2-4 entering that game, and have since gone 3-2. They are quite honestly ships passing in the night. The Buccaneers defense will swallow the run and force turnovers, two things that are quite the recipe for beating the Falcons. The line reflects the new-found confidence in Tampa Bay, but I feel like the Falcons are due to have a game where they hold onto the ball. On a play-by-play basis, the Falcons are better, and if they don't turn hte ball over, they should win.
Falcons 27 Buccaneers 23 (ATL)
Baltimore Ravens (4-7) @ Miami Dolphins (4-7) (MIA -3.5)
Matt Schaub looked decent, right? I mean, when you remove the pick-sixes he threw, he wasn't all that bad. He threw in rythym, the run-game worked and overall it looked like a passable offense. Of course, that was against the Browns defense, and despite how disappointing the Dolphins have been, Miami poses a greater challenge. The Dolphins have been extremely up-and-down lately, so I am not too concerned by their awful game last week. I think they win and cover, because Schaub, even in a good game like last week, will thrown them picks.
Ravens 17 Dolphins 24 (MIA -3.5)
Arizona Cardinals (9-2) @ St. Louis Rams (4-7) (ARZ -7)
The last three times these two teams have squared off against each other, the Rams have done something significant. First, they tore Carson Palmer's ACL; then they injured Drew Stanton (who was half-decent) and forced the Ryan Lindley era upon the Cardinals, and this year they ended the brief run at perfection for Arizona. I think Arizona pays St. Louis back for all that in a big way. The Rams have to start Foles again, and he's completely lost out there currently. The Cardinals have the ability to extend leads and pounce on his mistakes to blow this open more than a TD.
Cardinals 27 Rams 13 (ARZ -7)
Houston Texans (6-5) @ Buffalo Bills (5-6) (BUF -3)
In some ways, in that cadre of AFC teams that are either 6-5 or 5-6, I'm pulling for all the 5-6 teams to win and the 6-5 teams to lose to leave us with a giant set of teams at 6-6. I do actually think there is a fair chance of that happening here. The Bills definitely need this game more as they have only one pathway into the playoffs. They also have the type of offense that should control Brian Hoyer and neutralize the Texans chances of scoring 24+. The Bills main concern is on offense, but so far in his career JJ Watt has been a superior player at home, so I'm less worried than a repeat of last year's game where Watt was utterly dominant and won the game by himself.
Texans 16 Bills 24 (BUF -3)
New York Jets (6-5) @ New York Giants (5-6) (NYJ -1)
Both these teams need this game badly, but if a few results go their way in other games, neither team needs this game badly. The Giants are probably more desperate. The Redskins have a far easier schedule here on out - this is actually one of the easier games for the Giants. For this matchup, if we look just to the trenches, the Jets have a huge edge. They have a great d-line and the Giants are missing nearly all their major starters on the o-line. Then again, with Revis out the cascade effect of a non-Revis covering OBJ and an even-worser non-non-Revis covering Randle is a scary proposition. I think the Giants are a little more desperate, and their defense which forces a lot of turnovers and generally stops the run is a good matchup against the Jets.
Jets 20 Giants 24 (NYG +1)
Seattle Seahawks (6-5) @ Minnesota Vikings (8-3) (PICK)
The Seahawks were favored early in the week, but the action seems to have concentrated more on the Vikings in recent days. It is not surprising why. The Seahawks recent offensive outburst occurred at home, and the last time we saw the Seahawks outside of Seattle was a pathetic showing in Dallas in a 13-12 win. The Vikings defense is excellent in the red zone, something the Seahawks struggled with early in the season. The Vikings offense doesn't match up too well, which is a real concern though, I could see another 13-12 type game, and the Vikings have been great in those games.
Seahawks 13 Vikings 17 (MIN)
Denver Broncos (9-2) @ San Diego Chargers (3-8) (DEN -3.5)
I don't even feel like talking about the whole Osweiler / Manning thing. Let me just say the Peyton Manning who played Weeks 1-7 would've beaten Chicago 17-15, and probably would have won this game too.
Broncos 27 Chargers 20 (DEN -3.5)
Philadelphia Eagles (4-7) @ New England Patriots (10-1) (NE -10.5)
There are actually a lot of trends and matchups that would point to Philadelphia. Teams coming off back-to-back big losses tend to cover in the next game because the line is artificially high (probably not the case). The Patriots are missing a lot of players and the Eagles defensive front can be dominant at times. Still, this is in New England, and this Eagles team so obviously quit on life the last two games. I can't imagine them getting up for this game, one that, if the Eagles go three-and-out a few times early, can snowball quickly.
Eagles 17 Patriots 38 (NE -10.5)
Carolina Panthers (11-0) @ New Orleans Saints (4-7) (CAR -7.5)
This line actually seems high. The Saints have the potential to play well in the Dome, and the Panthers haven't been the best team outside of Carolina (last weekend excluded). I could absolutely see the Panthers winning, but more like they did early in the season when they were winning by 3-7 points. The Panthers defense should swallow the Saints, but they can be beat deep if Brees gets time. The Saints have a high-risk defense that could get to Newton. I think the Saints also have a sense of pride and a loss here gives their opponent a really reasonable chance at 16-0 and ends their season. I think the Saints play close, but ultimately lose.
Panthers 27 Saints 24 (NO +7.5)
Kansas City Chiefs (6-5) @ Oakland Raiders (5-6) (KC -2.5)
Are the Chiefs really going to go from 1-5 to 11-5? This may be their toughest game left, and while that may sound like a dig at the Chiefs easy schedule, Oakland is a tough out. They've essentially been blown out twice, once by Cincinati and once by Minnesota - both teams that are good and arguably better than the Chiefs. The Raiders offense is for real. Derek Carr is playing like a Top-5 QB in 2015, and his o-line limits pressures and sacks about as good as anyone. They can get time against the Chiefs. The issue is the other side of the ball. The Raiders seem to do better against physical or talent-based offenses and struggle with scheme ones so that could be a problem. I think the Raiders win but would not be shocked if the Chiefs pull another one out.
Chiefs 23 Raiders 30 (OAK +2.5)
Indianapolis Colts (6-5) @ Pittsburgh Steelers (6-5) (PIT -7.5)
If the Steelers can't win this game against Matt Hasselbeck and the Colts, they don't deserve to make the playoffs.
Colts 17 Steelers 35 (PIT -7.5)
Dallas Cowboys (3-8) @ Washington Redskins (5-6) (WAS -4.5)
If the Redskins can't win this game, against Matt Cassel and the Cowboys, they don't deserve to make the playoffs.
Cowboys 14 Redskins 24 (WAS -4.5)
Enjoy the Games!!!
