Week 2: 8-8
Year-to-Date: 16-15-1
Washington Redskins (1-1) @ New York Giants (0-2) (NYG -3)
In 2013, I was god awful at picking Thursday games. In 2014, I was far better. So far I'm 1-0 in true Thursday games and I think I have a good handle on this one. There is a common strategy to take 0-2 teams in their third game when they are either a team that is in a weak division where they still have good playoff chances, or a team that was expected to be competitive or good and has struggled early. The Giants really fit both criteria, as with the Romo injury everyone is back in play in the NFC East. The Giants are better than Washington. I don't care about the random praise they've gotten after two games, the Redskins are still the Redskins - and Kirk Cousins is still Kirk Cousins. There is good value here for the home team on a short week.
Redskins 17 Giants 27 (NYG -3)
Jacksonville Jaguars (1-1) @ New England Patriots (2-0) (NE -14)
The Patriots are not good at covering really high lines, being just 11-23 at this in the Brady era, including the '07 season. They generally win these games, but covering one-third of the time is not a good trend. Maybe it is a back-door cover, maybe a Patriots team looking ahead to their bye, maybe just a slow performance, much like their game last year in Week 3 as a double-digit favorite against the Raiders. I'm not going against history here.
Jaguars 17 Patriots 31 (JAX +14)
Oakland Raiders (1-1) @ Cleveland Browns (1-1) (CLE -3.5)
One of these teams will be 2-1! One of these teams will have some hot-taek-artist write about how they are going to be a surprise contender for the entire season. Of course, none of that really will come to pass because both teams at best are 1-2 years away. Still, this is an interesting game. Both teams lost badly in Week 1, and then won in Week 2. The Raiders beat a seemingly good Baltimore team in a close game, and the Browns beat a likely worse Titans team in a comfortable win. The Raiders have to fly out east, but I don't like the move back to Josh McCown. I'll go with the Raiders, but I'm not really confident here.
Raiders 20 Browns 16 (OAK +3.5)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-1) @ Houston Texans (0-2) (HOU -7)
This line doesn't make sense. The Texans are 0-2, losing both games that were not as close as the score indicates. They've played two QBs so far and neither have been good. I guess Mallet is getting the start here, but he looked like a disaster. I think the line is still overplaying the Buccaneers putrid Week 1 performance. They were good in the Dome. If the line was closer to 4 I would probably go with the 'desperate' Texans who are still just one game back in division, but this line is really bad value for the Texans. I also like the Buccaneers defense against a Texans team that struggles to go deep. We just saw what happened when Mallet played a team that ran a lot of zone and the results were awful.
Buccaneers 17 Texans 20 (TB +7)
Atlanta Falcons (2-0) @ Dallas Cowboys (2-0) (ATL -2)
Man, if Romo was healthy this would have been a really nice game. The only game between two teams at 2-0, a game with Matt Ryan and Julio Jones and Romo and Witten, et. al. Of course, with Romo out and Weeden in and Cassel lurking in the shadows, the game's draw has cratered. The Falcons have matchups advantages on offense all over the place (no one on Dallas can really stop Julio Jones). They have a chance here to make a statement. A team that wants to shoot up and compete for a Super Bowl doesn't drop a game like this to Brandon Weeden. I think the Cowboys will survive without Romo, much like the Packers did without Rodgers in 2013, but even that Packers team started the Rodgers-less era struggling.
Falcons 27 Cowboys 16 (ATL -2)
Philadelphia Eagles (0-2) @ New York Jets (2-0) (NYJ -2.5)
This line changed about 5 points from before Week 2. Now, that is partially an overreaction to the Jets defense looking dominant on Monday, and the Eagles offense looking the inverse on Sunday. The Jets defense can really exacerbate the issues the Eagles offense is currently facing. The Eagles o-line is playing awful... well the Jets have one of the best d-lines in the NFL. The Eagles passing game is relying heavily on YAC and short crossers... well the Jets have a set of well-tackling linebackers. On the other side, the Eagles defense is reasonably good, but they have no one to really cover the Jets outside players. As bad as it looked last week, this is a worse matchup. Maybe the desperation principle will hold, but a low line for a team with all the matchup edges seems too clear to pass up.
Eagles 16 Jets 23 (NYJ -2.5)
Pittsburgh Steelers (1-1) @ St. Louis Rams (1-1) (PIT -2)
This may be the best game of the early slate. A lot of interesting matchups. The Rams dominant front that plays up at home against the Steelers offense. The return of Le'Veon Bell. The Rams fire-away offense against that psychotic Steelers defense. I really have no idea what to expect, and for either team, a 2-1 start is so much better than 1-2. The Steelers have struggled in these types of spots, and I can see them starting off slowly here. The only question is whether the Rams pass rush can hold up and win against a good Steelers offensive line. Personally, I like the Rams side a little more and people may overstate how bad they were in Week 2, a game that came down to essentially two big runs.
Steelers 20 Rams 24 (STL +2)
Indianapolis Colts (0-2) @ Tennessee Titans (1-1) (IND -3.5)
The Colts may be many things right now, a team with a coach vs. GM feud, a team that has significant flaws on both sides, a team with a QB who is starting to feel heat for the first time in his career. That all said, they lost to two teams with good defenses that played well, and if Vinatieri doesn't miss a 30-yard field goal and if Frank Gore doesn't fumble at the 1-yard line they probably beat the Jets. The Colts have dominated the AFC South, going 6-0 in division for each of the past two years. If they lose this game, to a rookie QB when they have to win, then we have serious problems. I would have loved the line a -2.5, but even Vegas knows that the Colts still are the better team and the desperate team and they just own that division.
Colts 34 Titans 20 (IND -3.5)
San Diego Chargers (1-1) @ Minnesota Vikings (1-1) (MIN -2)
Potentially fun game, and more than that potentially a game that can end in 120 minutes. The Chargers have long drives and Philip Rivers is basically deciding to stop throwing incompletions. The Vikings run the ball a lot and also have a lot of long drives. This is a really hard game to pick as we have two teams that nicely stack up as potential 2nd-tier contenders in their respective conferences. The game will really come down to whether the Vikings front that showed up in Week 2 shows up again. Rivers struggles with pressure up the middle, and the Vikings have the tackles to impart some of that pressure. I think the Vikings will impart that pressure; and I think they'll also run it well enough with Peterson to limit the possessions and take the game.
Chargers 20 Vikings 24 (MIN -2)
New Orleans Saints (0-2) @ Carolina Panthers (2-0) (CAR -8)
I hate this game now with Brees out. It is a complete stay-away for me. I hate when the line reacts so heavily to a QB being out. The Saints are not a good team, especially so with Brees out, but the Panthers are not built to blow teams out on the regular. They have the ability, and the defense can squeeze a McCown led Saints team big time, but it is hard to have confidence in that. I'll take the Saints to cover in a loss, but I wouldn't bet this game for any money as I really have no idea how they'll react to that loss.
Saints 13 Panthers 20 (NO +8)
Cincinnati Bengals (2-0) @ Baltimore Ravens (0-2) (BAL -3)
Interesting that the line is indicating that Vegas views this team somewhat equally. Of course, the line is adjusted by both the Ravens being a really good home team (of which they haven't had a game at home yet), and the Ravens being in a desperate situation. For a team that is 0-2, the Ravens should have a reasonably good outlook. Suggs isn't coming back, but if they win the next two games they're basically right there in the division. The Ravens have to have this game - if they drop it it will be a sign that the Suggs injury is just something they won't come back from.
Bengals 20 Ravens 27 (BAL -3)
Chicago Bears (0-2) @ Seattle Seahawks (0-2) (SEA -15)
This line can't get high enough really. Nothing will top the Broncos being -26.5 against Jacksonville two years ago, but this game probably should reach 20. Despite being 0-2, the Seahawks do have a track record of just routing teams, especially at home (they're another team not to have played a home game yet). Oh, and of course, the Bears are starting Jimmy Clausen. The Seahawks are also desperate; and they are also getting Kam Chancellor back. If they don't win this game write them off. If they can't cover a two-touchdown line, then probably write them off too.
Bears 10 Seahawks 31 (SEA -15)
San Francisco 49ers (1-1) @ Arizona Cardinals (2-0) (ARZ -6.5)
This is probably the highest the Cardinals have been favored in a game against a non-dreadful team in a long time. The 49ers looked bad last week, but they looked equally good in Week 1. The Cardinals have looked professionally great in each of their games. Football Outsiders DVOA has them as the best team through two games since the 2007 Patriots. They're probably not as good, but with a two-game cushion currently against Seattle, they'll want to maintain that edge. The 49ers are a team that is not built to compete with the aerial show of the Cardinals, and I think they'll take it as the Cardinals are generally better at home anyway. Love the line being right below a TD also.
49ers 17 Cardinals 28 (ARZ -6.5)
Buffalo Bills (1-1) @ Miami Dolphins (1-1) (MIA -3)
Fun game, and I'm thankful CBS in New York is showing this rather than the chosen 4:30 double-header game of Bears @ Seahawks (yup, Nantz and Simms will be calling that disaster). The loser of this game will be in last place in the division. The winner will be right there with the Patriots and Jets (especially if it is Miami, having not have played either so far). The line has them as essentially even, which I think is fair. Rex is a great coach, better than Philbin, but I think he's been dealt a losing hand this year with a team that is good but not good enough. I can see the Dolphins coming out a bit in this game, where Suh dominates the Bills bad interior OL, and gets repeated pressure on Tyrod Taylor, who creates pressure for himself half the time anyway.
Bills 16 Dolphins 24 (MIA -3)
Denver Broncos (2-0) @ Detroit Lions (0-2) (DEN -3)
I'm going to keep taking Denver when getting value. The Broncos are 2-0, having beat a preseason Super Bowl pick and a trendy sleeper pick. The Lions are 0-2, losing to two teams that lost their other game this year. The Broncos under Manning are great on SNF (8-2 so far). This line should not be this low. There is still general overreaction on Manning's ills and not on the Broncos potentially best-in-the-league defense.
Broncos 30 Lions 14 (DEN -3)
Kansas City Chiefs (1-1) @ Green Bay Packers (2-0) (GB -7.5)
A line right over a TD is where I would put this. The Chiefs have lost by more than 7 just four times under Reid, and only once on a prime-time game. They play up for these games, and have natural advantages like their edge rush against the Packers offense. The Chiefs offense is also well built to play against this Packers offense, with a big matchup edge at TE, and with the Packers lack of natural pass rush. I still think the Packers win, but I wouldn't be shocked with an upset, and here's a nice little pick: the Rodgers 'no INTs at home' streak ends as well.
Chiefs 20 Packers 27 (KC +7.5)
Year-to-Date: 16-15-1
Washington Redskins (1-1) @ New York Giants (0-2) (NYG -3)
In 2013, I was god awful at picking Thursday games. In 2014, I was far better. So far I'm 1-0 in true Thursday games and I think I have a good handle on this one. There is a common strategy to take 0-2 teams in their third game when they are either a team that is in a weak division where they still have good playoff chances, or a team that was expected to be competitive or good and has struggled early. The Giants really fit both criteria, as with the Romo injury everyone is back in play in the NFC East. The Giants are better than Washington. I don't care about the random praise they've gotten after two games, the Redskins are still the Redskins - and Kirk Cousins is still Kirk Cousins. There is good value here for the home team on a short week.
Redskins 17 Giants 27 (NYG -3)
Jacksonville Jaguars (1-1) @ New England Patriots (2-0) (NE -14)
The Patriots are not good at covering really high lines, being just 11-23 at this in the Brady era, including the '07 season. They generally win these games, but covering one-third of the time is not a good trend. Maybe it is a back-door cover, maybe a Patriots team looking ahead to their bye, maybe just a slow performance, much like their game last year in Week 3 as a double-digit favorite against the Raiders. I'm not going against history here.
Jaguars 17 Patriots 31 (JAX +14)
Oakland Raiders (1-1) @ Cleveland Browns (1-1) (CLE -3.5)
One of these teams will be 2-1! One of these teams will have some hot-taek-artist write about how they are going to be a surprise contender for the entire season. Of course, none of that really will come to pass because both teams at best are 1-2 years away. Still, this is an interesting game. Both teams lost badly in Week 1, and then won in Week 2. The Raiders beat a seemingly good Baltimore team in a close game, and the Browns beat a likely worse Titans team in a comfortable win. The Raiders have to fly out east, but I don't like the move back to Josh McCown. I'll go with the Raiders, but I'm not really confident here.
Raiders 20 Browns 16 (OAK +3.5)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-1) @ Houston Texans (0-2) (HOU -7)
This line doesn't make sense. The Texans are 0-2, losing both games that were not as close as the score indicates. They've played two QBs so far and neither have been good. I guess Mallet is getting the start here, but he looked like a disaster. I think the line is still overplaying the Buccaneers putrid Week 1 performance. They were good in the Dome. If the line was closer to 4 I would probably go with the 'desperate' Texans who are still just one game back in division, but this line is really bad value for the Texans. I also like the Buccaneers defense against a Texans team that struggles to go deep. We just saw what happened when Mallet played a team that ran a lot of zone and the results were awful.
Buccaneers 17 Texans 20 (TB +7)
Atlanta Falcons (2-0) @ Dallas Cowboys (2-0) (ATL -2)
Man, if Romo was healthy this would have been a really nice game. The only game between two teams at 2-0, a game with Matt Ryan and Julio Jones and Romo and Witten, et. al. Of course, with Romo out and Weeden in and Cassel lurking in the shadows, the game's draw has cratered. The Falcons have matchups advantages on offense all over the place (no one on Dallas can really stop Julio Jones). They have a chance here to make a statement. A team that wants to shoot up and compete for a Super Bowl doesn't drop a game like this to Brandon Weeden. I think the Cowboys will survive without Romo, much like the Packers did without Rodgers in 2013, but even that Packers team started the Rodgers-less era struggling.
Falcons 27 Cowboys 16 (ATL -2)
Philadelphia Eagles (0-2) @ New York Jets (2-0) (NYJ -2.5)
This line changed about 5 points from before Week 2. Now, that is partially an overreaction to the Jets defense looking dominant on Monday, and the Eagles offense looking the inverse on Sunday. The Jets defense can really exacerbate the issues the Eagles offense is currently facing. The Eagles o-line is playing awful... well the Jets have one of the best d-lines in the NFL. The Eagles passing game is relying heavily on YAC and short crossers... well the Jets have a set of well-tackling linebackers. On the other side, the Eagles defense is reasonably good, but they have no one to really cover the Jets outside players. As bad as it looked last week, this is a worse matchup. Maybe the desperation principle will hold, but a low line for a team with all the matchup edges seems too clear to pass up.
Eagles 16 Jets 23 (NYJ -2.5)
Pittsburgh Steelers (1-1) @ St. Louis Rams (1-1) (PIT -2)
This may be the best game of the early slate. A lot of interesting matchups. The Rams dominant front that plays up at home against the Steelers offense. The return of Le'Veon Bell. The Rams fire-away offense against that psychotic Steelers defense. I really have no idea what to expect, and for either team, a 2-1 start is so much better than 1-2. The Steelers have struggled in these types of spots, and I can see them starting off slowly here. The only question is whether the Rams pass rush can hold up and win against a good Steelers offensive line. Personally, I like the Rams side a little more and people may overstate how bad they were in Week 2, a game that came down to essentially two big runs.
Steelers 20 Rams 24 (STL +2)
Indianapolis Colts (0-2) @ Tennessee Titans (1-1) (IND -3.5)
The Colts may be many things right now, a team with a coach vs. GM feud, a team that has significant flaws on both sides, a team with a QB who is starting to feel heat for the first time in his career. That all said, they lost to two teams with good defenses that played well, and if Vinatieri doesn't miss a 30-yard field goal and if Frank Gore doesn't fumble at the 1-yard line they probably beat the Jets. The Colts have dominated the AFC South, going 6-0 in division for each of the past two years. If they lose this game, to a rookie QB when they have to win, then we have serious problems. I would have loved the line a -2.5, but even Vegas knows that the Colts still are the better team and the desperate team and they just own that division.
Colts 34 Titans 20 (IND -3.5)
San Diego Chargers (1-1) @ Minnesota Vikings (1-1) (MIN -2)
Potentially fun game, and more than that potentially a game that can end in 120 minutes. The Chargers have long drives and Philip Rivers is basically deciding to stop throwing incompletions. The Vikings run the ball a lot and also have a lot of long drives. This is a really hard game to pick as we have two teams that nicely stack up as potential 2nd-tier contenders in their respective conferences. The game will really come down to whether the Vikings front that showed up in Week 2 shows up again. Rivers struggles with pressure up the middle, and the Vikings have the tackles to impart some of that pressure. I think the Vikings will impart that pressure; and I think they'll also run it well enough with Peterson to limit the possessions and take the game.
Chargers 20 Vikings 24 (MIN -2)
New Orleans Saints (0-2) @ Carolina Panthers (2-0) (CAR -8)
I hate this game now with Brees out. It is a complete stay-away for me. I hate when the line reacts so heavily to a QB being out. The Saints are not a good team, especially so with Brees out, but the Panthers are not built to blow teams out on the regular. They have the ability, and the defense can squeeze a McCown led Saints team big time, but it is hard to have confidence in that. I'll take the Saints to cover in a loss, but I wouldn't bet this game for any money as I really have no idea how they'll react to that loss.
Saints 13 Panthers 20 (NO +8)
Cincinnati Bengals (2-0) @ Baltimore Ravens (0-2) (BAL -3)
Interesting that the line is indicating that Vegas views this team somewhat equally. Of course, the line is adjusted by both the Ravens being a really good home team (of which they haven't had a game at home yet), and the Ravens being in a desperate situation. For a team that is 0-2, the Ravens should have a reasonably good outlook. Suggs isn't coming back, but if they win the next two games they're basically right there in the division. The Ravens have to have this game - if they drop it it will be a sign that the Suggs injury is just something they won't come back from.
Bengals 20 Ravens 27 (BAL -3)
Chicago Bears (0-2) @ Seattle Seahawks (0-2) (SEA -15)
This line can't get high enough really. Nothing will top the Broncos being -26.5 against Jacksonville two years ago, but this game probably should reach 20. Despite being 0-2, the Seahawks do have a track record of just routing teams, especially at home (they're another team not to have played a home game yet). Oh, and of course, the Bears are starting Jimmy Clausen. The Seahawks are also desperate; and they are also getting Kam Chancellor back. If they don't win this game write them off. If they can't cover a two-touchdown line, then probably write them off too.
Bears 10 Seahawks 31 (SEA -15)
San Francisco 49ers (1-1) @ Arizona Cardinals (2-0) (ARZ -6.5)
This is probably the highest the Cardinals have been favored in a game against a non-dreadful team in a long time. The 49ers looked bad last week, but they looked equally good in Week 1. The Cardinals have looked professionally great in each of their games. Football Outsiders DVOA has them as the best team through two games since the 2007 Patriots. They're probably not as good, but with a two-game cushion currently against Seattle, they'll want to maintain that edge. The 49ers are a team that is not built to compete with the aerial show of the Cardinals, and I think they'll take it as the Cardinals are generally better at home anyway. Love the line being right below a TD also.
49ers 17 Cardinals 28 (ARZ -6.5)
Buffalo Bills (1-1) @ Miami Dolphins (1-1) (MIA -3)
Fun game, and I'm thankful CBS in New York is showing this rather than the chosen 4:30 double-header game of Bears @ Seahawks (yup, Nantz and Simms will be calling that disaster). The loser of this game will be in last place in the division. The winner will be right there with the Patriots and Jets (especially if it is Miami, having not have played either so far). The line has them as essentially even, which I think is fair. Rex is a great coach, better than Philbin, but I think he's been dealt a losing hand this year with a team that is good but not good enough. I can see the Dolphins coming out a bit in this game, where Suh dominates the Bills bad interior OL, and gets repeated pressure on Tyrod Taylor, who creates pressure for himself half the time anyway.
Bills 16 Dolphins 24 (MIA -3)
Denver Broncos (2-0) @ Detroit Lions (0-2) (DEN -3)
I'm going to keep taking Denver when getting value. The Broncos are 2-0, having beat a preseason Super Bowl pick and a trendy sleeper pick. The Lions are 0-2, losing to two teams that lost their other game this year. The Broncos under Manning are great on SNF (8-2 so far). This line should not be this low. There is still general overreaction on Manning's ills and not on the Broncos potentially best-in-the-league defense.
Broncos 30 Lions 14 (DEN -3)
Kansas City Chiefs (1-1) @ Green Bay Packers (2-0) (GB -7.5)
A line right over a TD is where I would put this. The Chiefs have lost by more than 7 just four times under Reid, and only once on a prime-time game. They play up for these games, and have natural advantages like their edge rush against the Packers offense. The Chiefs offense is also well built to play against this Packers offense, with a big matchup edge at TE, and with the Packers lack of natural pass rush. I still think the Packers win, but I wouldn't be shocked with an upset, and here's a nice little pick: the Rodgers 'no INTs at home' streak ends as well.
Chiefs 20 Packers 27 (KC +7.5)
