Quick picks this week, as I'm writing something later about Manning's odd two weeks.
Last Week: 8-7-1
Year-to-Date: 8-7-1
Denver Broncos (1-0) @ Kansas City Chiefs (1-0) (KC -3)
The Broncos have owned the Chiefs in the Manning era. The Manning has owned the Chiefs in the Manning era. Getting points is great value as I think there is a general overreaction to what happened in Week 1. Getting points with Manning is rare, but I think it is always a sign that the world is overreacting to Manning's age (more on that later)
Broncos 27 Chiefs 20 (DEN +3)
Tennessee Titans (1-0) @ Cleveland Browns (0-1) (TEN -1)
Who honestly cares about this game apart from fans of either team or fans of watching Marcus Mariota. I can see a fall from Mariota, and Mike Pettine's defense is generally good at confusing inexperienced QBs. Again, good value to bet against a rookie QB in his first road games as a favroite.
Titans 16 Browns 20 (CLE +1)
Houston Texans (0-1) @ Carolina Panthers (1-0) (CAR -3)
Ryan Mallet is getting the start - a quick change that kind of seems like it made the entire QB storyline of hard knocks pointless. This is a rough spot for Mallet against a defense that looked all kinds of good in Week 1. The Panthers may struggle on offense at well, but this is good value. I would buy a half-point here likely cause I can easily see this being a field goal game.
Texans 13 Panthers 17 (CAR -3)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-1) @ New Orleans Saints (0-1) (NO -10)
This is a high number, but I can see the Saints pulling a big number out this week at home after a Week 1 loss. Then again, last year the Buccaneers should have beaten the Saints in the Superdome. Again, high line but let's roll with it.
Buccaneers 17 Saints 31 (NO -10)
Arizona Cardinals (1-0) @ Chicago Bears (0-1) (ARZ -2.5)
This is a lot of trust in Arizona, but I kind of like it. In the Arians era, they don't drop these games against bad teams, even on the road. The Bears were better than expected in Week 1, but I don't like their defensive matchup against a team that loves to go deep.
Cardinals 24 Bears 16 (ARZ -2.5)
St. Louis Rams (1-0) @ Washington Redskins (0-1) (STL -3.5)
This line makes no sense - more that Washington is just not that good. These two teams played last year in Washington and the Rams won 24-0. What's changed since then is the Redskins have gotten slightly better on defense, while the Rams have gotten better everywhere. This seems rather easy.
Rams 27 Redskins 14 (STL -3.5)
Atlanta Falcons (1-0) @ New York Giants (0-1) (NYG -2)
The Falcons won a game they could easily have lost, and the Giants lost a game they definitely should have won. The line is low which is nice because I think we are getting some good value with the Giants here. I can't see them dropping this game as they generally play well against Matt Ryan and the offense should do well against a bad pas rush.
Falcons 20 Giants 24 (NYG -2)
San Francisco 49ers (1-0) @ Pittsburgh Steelers (0-1) (PIT -6.5)
This is a high line for a team that lost in Week 1 against a team that looked great in Week 1. I understand some of it, though. The 49ers played late Monday and are now going on the road against the Steelers who have had extra rest. Still, this line just seems a little high. I can see the Steelers going up and the 49ers coming back.
49ers 20 Steelers 24 (SF +6.5)
Detroit Lions (0-1) @ Minnesota Vikings (0-1) (MIN -3)
Both teams were less than impressive in Week 1, but the Lions at least had a pulse on offense. If the Vikings lose this games things can go downhill for a trendy preseason playoff sleeper. I personally like more from what I saw from Detroit, and I think they'll stop Peterson and take this game again.
Lions 23 Vikings 13 (DET +3)
San Diego Chargers (1-0) @ Cincinnati Bengals (1-0) (CIN -3.5)
Interesting, subtly good Week 2 matchup between two teams that looked impressive in Week 1. The Bengals played better but against a far worse team. The Bengals also were on the road. This could be a shootout, but it rarely is with these two teams. I actually like the Bengals, but the line is a little high. I'll take Cincinnati, but have little confidence in that pick.
Chargers 24 Bengals 31 (CIN -3.5)
New England Patriots (1-0) @ Buffalo Bills (1-0) (NE -1.5)
What a game here. The Line has corrected a bit towards the Patriots end, but I think the line is fair. The Patriots had a long break, but this is a tough spot. They've not always been their best in Buffalo recently, and Rex Ryan knows how to make Brady uncomfortable - just take last year's two games as any indication. I think the Bills do just enough, but again little confidence here.
Patriots 17 Bills 20 (BUF +1.5)
Miami Dolphins (1-0) @ Jacksonville Jaguars (0-1) (MIA -6.5)
Honestly, who cares?
Dolphins 27 Jaguars 16 (MIA -6.5)
Baltimore Ravens (1-0) @ Oakland Raiders (0-1) (BAL -7)
Again, honestly, who cares?
Ravens 24 Raiders 13 (BAL -7)
Dallas Cowboys (1-0) @ Philadelphia Eagles (0-1) (PHI -5)
While I'm not excited about the only game in the late window being another NFC East game, ther are some interesting storylines in this one. The Cowboys won in Week 1, but I feel people think the Eagles did. The Cowboys are missing Dez Bryant, but the Eagles defense was average in Week 1. The Eagles are at home, but that hasn't seemed to be an advantage for them in the Kelly era. This line indicates the Eagles should be viewed as the better team overall, which I can't really get behind. I think this is good value for Dallas.
Cowboys 31 Eagles 23 (DAL +5)
Seattle Seahawks (0-1) @ Green Bay Packers (1-0) (GB -3.5)
I'm sure I'll hear during the game the stat of Russell Wilson's record against Brady (1-1), Manning (2-0), Brees (3-0) and Rodgers (3-0). Amazingly, just two of those games were played outside Seattle - the two Super Bowls. This is the first time he's had to play any of those in their own building. The game will probably still be low scoring, and matchups do favor the Seahawks. They should be able to run all over the Packers. It really comes down to can their defense limit the Packers, and I think it will enough to cover this.
Seahawks 20 Packers 23 (SEA +3.5)
New York Jets (1-0) @ Indianapolis Colts (0-1) (IND -7)
High line, but the Jets probably played worse than their score, and the Colts are just better at home. Their offense has matchup advantages against the Jets with their TEs, but if Hilton is out things may look bad for the Colts against the Jets secondary. On the other side, the Colts defense plays well against these types of offense. My real concern is can they beat the number. I don't think they do, but I think they win.
Jets 19 Colts 24 (NYJ +7)
Last Week: 8-7-1
Year-to-Date: 8-7-1
Denver Broncos (1-0) @ Kansas City Chiefs (1-0) (KC -3)
The Broncos have owned the Chiefs in the Manning era. The Manning has owned the Chiefs in the Manning era. Getting points is great value as I think there is a general overreaction to what happened in Week 1. Getting points with Manning is rare, but I think it is always a sign that the world is overreacting to Manning's age (more on that later)
Broncos 27 Chiefs 20 (DEN +3)
Tennessee Titans (1-0) @ Cleveland Browns (0-1) (TEN -1)
Who honestly cares about this game apart from fans of either team or fans of watching Marcus Mariota. I can see a fall from Mariota, and Mike Pettine's defense is generally good at confusing inexperienced QBs. Again, good value to bet against a rookie QB in his first road games as a favroite.
Titans 16 Browns 20 (CLE +1)
Houston Texans (0-1) @ Carolina Panthers (1-0) (CAR -3)
Ryan Mallet is getting the start - a quick change that kind of seems like it made the entire QB storyline of hard knocks pointless. This is a rough spot for Mallet against a defense that looked all kinds of good in Week 1. The Panthers may struggle on offense at well, but this is good value. I would buy a half-point here likely cause I can easily see this being a field goal game.
Texans 13 Panthers 17 (CAR -3)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-1) @ New Orleans Saints (0-1) (NO -10)
This is a high number, but I can see the Saints pulling a big number out this week at home after a Week 1 loss. Then again, last year the Buccaneers should have beaten the Saints in the Superdome. Again, high line but let's roll with it.
Buccaneers 17 Saints 31 (NO -10)
Arizona Cardinals (1-0) @ Chicago Bears (0-1) (ARZ -2.5)
This is a lot of trust in Arizona, but I kind of like it. In the Arians era, they don't drop these games against bad teams, even on the road. The Bears were better than expected in Week 1, but I don't like their defensive matchup against a team that loves to go deep.
Cardinals 24 Bears 16 (ARZ -2.5)
St. Louis Rams (1-0) @ Washington Redskins (0-1) (STL -3.5)
This line makes no sense - more that Washington is just not that good. These two teams played last year in Washington and the Rams won 24-0. What's changed since then is the Redskins have gotten slightly better on defense, while the Rams have gotten better everywhere. This seems rather easy.
Rams 27 Redskins 14 (STL -3.5)
Atlanta Falcons (1-0) @ New York Giants (0-1) (NYG -2)
The Falcons won a game they could easily have lost, and the Giants lost a game they definitely should have won. The line is low which is nice because I think we are getting some good value with the Giants here. I can't see them dropping this game as they generally play well against Matt Ryan and the offense should do well against a bad pas rush.
Falcons 20 Giants 24 (NYG -2)
San Francisco 49ers (1-0) @ Pittsburgh Steelers (0-1) (PIT -6.5)
This is a high line for a team that lost in Week 1 against a team that looked great in Week 1. I understand some of it, though. The 49ers played late Monday and are now going on the road against the Steelers who have had extra rest. Still, this line just seems a little high. I can see the Steelers going up and the 49ers coming back.
49ers 20 Steelers 24 (SF +6.5)
Detroit Lions (0-1) @ Minnesota Vikings (0-1) (MIN -3)
Both teams were less than impressive in Week 1, but the Lions at least had a pulse on offense. If the Vikings lose this games things can go downhill for a trendy preseason playoff sleeper. I personally like more from what I saw from Detroit, and I think they'll stop Peterson and take this game again.
Lions 23 Vikings 13 (DET +3)
San Diego Chargers (1-0) @ Cincinnati Bengals (1-0) (CIN -3.5)
Interesting, subtly good Week 2 matchup between two teams that looked impressive in Week 1. The Bengals played better but against a far worse team. The Bengals also were on the road. This could be a shootout, but it rarely is with these two teams. I actually like the Bengals, but the line is a little high. I'll take Cincinnati, but have little confidence in that pick.
Chargers 24 Bengals 31 (CIN -3.5)
New England Patriots (1-0) @ Buffalo Bills (1-0) (NE -1.5)
What a game here. The Line has corrected a bit towards the Patriots end, but I think the line is fair. The Patriots had a long break, but this is a tough spot. They've not always been their best in Buffalo recently, and Rex Ryan knows how to make Brady uncomfortable - just take last year's two games as any indication. I think the Bills do just enough, but again little confidence here.
Patriots 17 Bills 20 (BUF +1.5)
Miami Dolphins (1-0) @ Jacksonville Jaguars (0-1) (MIA -6.5)
Honestly, who cares?
Dolphins 27 Jaguars 16 (MIA -6.5)
Baltimore Ravens (1-0) @ Oakland Raiders (0-1) (BAL -7)
Again, honestly, who cares?
Ravens 24 Raiders 13 (BAL -7)
Dallas Cowboys (1-0) @ Philadelphia Eagles (0-1) (PHI -5)
While I'm not excited about the only game in the late window being another NFC East game, ther are some interesting storylines in this one. The Cowboys won in Week 1, but I feel people think the Eagles did. The Cowboys are missing Dez Bryant, but the Eagles defense was average in Week 1. The Eagles are at home, but that hasn't seemed to be an advantage for them in the Kelly era. This line indicates the Eagles should be viewed as the better team overall, which I can't really get behind. I think this is good value for Dallas.
Cowboys 31 Eagles 23 (DAL +5)
Seattle Seahawks (0-1) @ Green Bay Packers (1-0) (GB -3.5)
I'm sure I'll hear during the game the stat of Russell Wilson's record against Brady (1-1), Manning (2-0), Brees (3-0) and Rodgers (3-0). Amazingly, just two of those games were played outside Seattle - the two Super Bowls. This is the first time he's had to play any of those in their own building. The game will probably still be low scoring, and matchups do favor the Seahawks. They should be able to run all over the Packers. It really comes down to can their defense limit the Packers, and I think it will enough to cover this.
Seahawks 20 Packers 23 (SEA +3.5)
New York Jets (1-0) @ Indianapolis Colts (0-1) (IND -7)
High line, but the Jets probably played worse than their score, and the Colts are just better at home. Their offense has matchup advantages against the Jets with their TEs, but if Hilton is out things may look bad for the Colts against the Jets secondary. On the other side, the Colts defense plays well against these types of offense. My real concern is can they beat the number. I don't think they do, but I think they win.
Jets 19 Colts 24 (NYJ +7)
