That was a less satisfying week of football, but the last two night games were good. The Sunday Night Game showed that when they are riled up, in that stadium, the Ravens are the most amazing defense on earth, still. On Monday Night, we saw that the Colts are a proud team. They would be 3-1 if Manning was still playing. The AFC is below the NFC right now, which makes it worse that the Colts can't take advantage of a weaker AFC.
32.) St. Louis Rams 0-4
Boy, oh boy. The defense finally played competently again, but the offense continues to be awful. In the "Year of the QB" Sam Bradford is putting up lethargic numbers. Maybe, just maybe, we just shouldn't of anointed a player who went 7-9 in the first season mainly because the defense got a lot better. Oh, and in other news, Roger Saffold is absolute crap.
31.) Miami Dolphins 0-4
Tony Sparano watch is on, since they are on a bye-week right now, the perfect time to make a change. Chad Henne is not the problem. He's not the answer, but he's basically what Jason Campbell was when he was in Washington. There are loads of problems on that team, like Reggie Bush being a bust in Miami and that defense really deteriorating.
30.) Minnesota Vikings 0-4
I still think they are talented, and the Vikings could easily be 3-1 after losing three straight close games. At this point, I think they should switch to Christian Ponder. McNabb is not getting them anywhere, and in a hyper-competitive NFC, they are absolutely done. Adrian Peterson's long extension is looking like a move that will keep him on a middling team for the rest of his productive career.
29.) Kansas City Chiefs 1-3
It is great that they have looked like an actual NFL team again the last two weeks, but they needed a lot to beat an 0-3 team last week at home. They still have the 2nd worst point differential in football. I still wouldn't trust them to win three more games. If any team should "suck for luck" it is the Chiefs, who's true biggest liability is at quarterback.
28.) Jacksonville Jaguars 1-3
They won their opening game. Since then, they put up 3 points against a Jets team in an effort that looks more embarrassing each week. They then put up 8 against Carolina (admittedly, part of that game was played in a monsoon). Finally, they put up 10 against the Saints at home. They have the worst offense in the NFL. Hey, who knew getting rid of one of your two best receivers and then cutting your starting quarterback and replacing him with a McCown and a rookie would end badly?
27.) Indianapolis Colts 0-4
I always feel bad doing this, but without Manning, I can't see them beating any team. I think they will play more competitively day in and day out with most of these teams in this range, but the other QBs just can't pull games out. The defense has played well two straight games, and the running game has been a revelation. Apart from QB, this is a good team.
26.) Seattle Seahawks 1-3
How the Seahawks came close to winning that game is beyond me. Tarvaris Jackson actually looked decent. All of this is probably just due to that damn Qwest Field, which is still an evening factor of any game the Seahawks play. I think they are still in deep trouble, but that crowd will make games watchable, at least.
25.) Denver Broncos 1-3
Orton and that offense actually moved the ball pretty well against the Packers. It was that defense that is still recovering from bad personnel management since the end of the Shanahan days and through the McDaniels' dictatorship. I love that they finally brought in Tim Tebow for a useless play. If you told NCAA fans two years ago that Tim Tebow would amount to nothing while a renegade QB Cam Newton would be setting rookie passing records, I think they would have killed you.
24.) Arizona Cardinals 1-3
This team came within the following of being 4-0: Two missed field goals in Seattle. A 1-point loss in Washington. A controversial call being called the way a majority of the people in the world saw it. The Cardinals are the best 1-3 team in the NFL (other than the Eagles, who are easily the most talented). Since they haven't played SF yet, I still think they have a good shot at an NFC West title.
23.) Cleveland Browns 2-2
The two teams the Browns beat are both 0-4 (Indy, Miami), and their two losses have come to teams that are among the lesser .500+ teams (Cincy, Tennessee). The Browns are a team with average talent that is unsurprisingly getting average results. All of that amounts to optimism in Cleveland. This isn't the mirage 2007 team, but a team that is worth following, that will end up with single digit losses. That can be an upgrade, just ask Raiders fans' about the 2010 season.
22.) Cincinnati Bengals 2-2
AJ Green is really, really good. The Bengals defense is good. Their schedule, like everyone in the AFC North, is really weak (the AFC South and NFC West will do that to you). They have @JAX, vs IND, bye, @ SEA, @ TEN before their first meeting with the Steelers. There is a real chance they could be 5-3 heading into that game. That is incredible. And just think if Mike Brown and Carson Palmer didn't have to sooth their egos and if he was playing QB.
21.) Carolina Panthers 1-3
Cam Newton is a lot better that what I thought he would be. But that isn't as important as the sudden revival of one Stevonne Latrall Smith (his real name), the master of the rules and regulations of the game. Mr. 89. From 2003-2008, Steve Smith was, other than Moss and Johnson/Ocho, the most exciting receiver in the game. His touchdown dances were underrated (changing the baby). He singlehandidly made Jake Delhomme into a good QB. He's the real secret behind Cam having a great rookie year.
20.) Philadelphia Eagles 1-3
This is just sad. It is just pathetic. Lose to Atlanta: Fine, they were desperate at 0-1 in their home opener. Lose to the Giants: Less fine, but the Giants are still a good team. Blow a 23-3 lead at home to the 49ers: ABSOLUTELY INEXCUSABLE. Michael Vick isn't the issue. It is all the old Eagles' foibles, like not being able to score touchdown and not being able to prevent them when inside the red zone. It also is dumb shit like Frank Gore doing his best Aaron Brooks impression.
19.) Dallas Cowboys 2-2
Tony Romo is really the new-old-Brett Favre (2002-2006). Favre in those years won a lot of games, but he also lost just as many with dumb, idiotic interceptions. Picks #1 and #3 were just bad decisions and throws. Good NFL QBs just cannot make those decisions. I said in the offseason that getting Romo back isn't that big of a deal since the difference between him and Kitna's performance in 2010 wasn't that much. Romo can make throws Kitna can't, but he'll make idiotic decisions like those picks.
18.) San Francisco 49ers 3-1
I thought they would be bad. I'm still not sure they aren't. They don't really do anything well other than not turn the ball over and stop the run. They've been outgained by about 80 yards a game, have no one rushing for over 4.0 ypc, and have Alex Smith throwing for just 800 yards (Brady crossed that in two games, so did Cam Newton). They've given up 14 sacks. They honestly do nothing well, yet came within a Tony Romo comeback of being 4-0.
17.) Atlanta Falcons 2-2
They are what they are, an unexplosive team with good players on paper that aren't any more than the some of their parts. This doesn't mean they are bad. They were the same thing in 2009, when they went 9-7. I don't think they are headed to the playoffs, but they still are a tough out for anybody.
16.) Tennessee Titans 3-1
They have given up the fewest points in the NFL so far, and Matt Hasselbeck is completing 2/3rds of his passes and has a ypa of 8.7. They are 3-1, with Chris Johnson being among the worst RBs in the NFL in ypr right now. Kenny Britt is also gone, but they went out and blasted the Browns in Cleveland. This probably won't continue too much longer, but right now, the Titans are a legitimate wild card threat in the weaker conference.
15.) Washington Redskins 3-1
Holy Rex. He just wins games. He just does what is needed. Enter in whatever Rex Grossman platitude Lovie Smith used to use in 2006. The Redskins have a good defense, capable of winning games if the offense doesn't make too many mistakes. The Redskins have a good offense with a great play-caller running the show. The Redskins played pretty well in their only loss as well. Grossman is really doing a Jake Plummer impression, and that usually ended in January.
14.) New York Jets 2-2
I had a feeling that the Jets would take a step back in 2011 from 2009-2010, but my thoughts were mostly about their defense. I thought Sanchez would get better. Their receiving corp didn't make a great exchange of players, but Sanchez would get better. Well, bang me silly, that really hasn't happened. The Jets need Nick Mangold back, and quick. Seeing them without Mangold get destroyed, I think my selection of Mangold being the higher ranked player over Revis doesn't look as outlandish.
13.) Pittsburgh Steelers 2-2
The old Steelers never let a "finesse" team like Houston run for 170 yards. The Steelers just lost to the Texans in a defensive struggle. That sentence just made a terrible towel eat itself. I think they will snap out of it a bit, and that easy schedule is still there, but their close loss to the Colts was not a mirage. The Steelers o-line has somehow become worse and more injured. The defense still looks old, and now James Harrison is having orbital bone surgery. Black and Blue for the Black and Gold.
12.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3-1
I love that the Buccaneers win all these close games, but that just means that they aren't that great of a team. They haven't gone out and beaten a good team straight up. They play all these middling teams close (Indy, Minnesota). Can they just go out and blast a team like all the other good teams? It is like Freeman just wants to get as many 4th-quarter comebacks as possible.
11.) Oakland Raiders 2-2
That was a loss that is acceptable. They aren't ready to beat a team of New England's caliber when they make mistakes. They played Brady well, holding him to just over 50% completion percentage. They were the first team to shut down Gronkowski. If Campbell doesn't throw that ridiculous interception, the worst they go into halftime is 17-13 (or even 17-17). That game could've been different. I still took positives out of it.
10.) Chicago Bears 2-2
Devin Hester is ridiculous. Devin Hester is the greatest returner in NFL history. You know what, it is always fun to watch the absolute best. It was fun to watch Manning carve up teams to no end, to throw balls into tight windows to covered receivers. It was fun to watch Tiger in his prime, or Federer in his. Watching people who are the best to play their sport is fun, and Hester is one of those guys. He's the best ever at what he does.
9.) Buffalo Bills 3-1
That was a crushing loss. I picked that they would not cover the Bengals, but I truly didn't expect them to lose, and in that fashion. I don't think the Bills are the frauds that they were in 2008 when they started 4-0, but the Bills aren't going to the playoffs if they lose these winnable games. By the way, what exactly is CJ Spiller doing these days?
8.) New York Giants 3-1
Oh, G-Men. I'm sorry I doubted you. With Osi back, and Eli getting more acclimated to those new weapons, the G-Men are about to go on a streak. History tells us so. History also tells us that there could be problems in the 2nd half, but that can't last forever. The G-Men still have that great running game and have the best pass-rushing d-line in the NFL. Those two in tandem with Eli playing awesome make a combination ripe for 11-5.
7.) Houston Texans 3-1
Just like I wrote in the Steelers part, the Texans just out-physicaled a physical team. The Texans did what they did, most of the game without Andre Johnson, against the Steelers. Yes, the Steelers o-line is about as good as most Div-III colleges, but that doesn't take away fully from the fact that the Texans pass rush was just dominating on Sunday. The Texans don't have to play great offense to win their games, winning two games when scoring a combined 40 points.
6.) Detroit Lions 4-0
Congratulations for being undefeated one more week. They ripped the heart out of the Jerry Dome. The Jerry-Pire State Building opened in the beginning of the 2009 season. That year, the Lions were in a 5-47 run. A year after that ended (end of 2010), they outgunned the Cowboys in the Jerry-Canyon. Calvin Johnson is also a beast. But we always knew that.
5.) San Diego Chargers 3-1
The Chargers have looked tired and lazy in their three wins, and looked like the "same old Chargers" in their only loss. The Calendar is flipped, and this is when the Chargers start playing good again. That's a good thing, because in this season, the Chargers are already 3-1 in their lazy, tired phase of the season. Phil Rivers won't have more picks than TDs for long. That defense is still really good, and that offense will get better (hasn't score 30 yet this year, I expect that to change, maybe this week). The Chargers are still my pick to win the Super Bowl, but then again, after picking the White Sox to win the Super Bowl, that is probably going to make the Chargers miss the playoffs again.
4.) New England Patriots 3-1
This defense is still awful. They've given up over 410 yards in every game. They can't rush the passer at all. They are virtually the 2004 Colts, with less explosiveness and more efficiency (basically, they won't hit the same amount of deep plays as that Colts team did, but will get more long drives and YAC). That isn't a recipe for success. They've finished their transition to the 2003-2004 Colts. Have fun with that, Pats fans. You have become your enemy.
3.) New Orleans Saints 3-1
That was a game that good teams win in just that fashion. The Saints weren't playing 100%. But they still won by 13 on the road. That's how a good team gets it done. The Saints played the Packers damn tough in what has been the NFL's impossible game (road teams still haven't won the Week-1 game at the defending champ since it started in 2004. Many have been close 2004, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, but the road team hasn't gotten it done ever). The Saints have since been the Saints, and now their defense finally had a great outing.
2.) Baltimore Ravens 3-1
My oh my. How the hell did they lose 13-26 in Tennessee. Even if you include that game, this team has the best point differential in the NFL. Their defense has been fantastic. Some of it will regress back to the mean (like already recovering 8 fumbles and having 14 takeaways through 4 games), but Flacco will probably not end the 2011 season with less than 50% completions. Torrey Smith looks really good, and Ed Dickson and Dennis Pitta look to be a solid 1-2 TE combo. The Ravens, in the conventional sense, are the most complete team in the NFL. They just aren't the best, yet.
1.) Green Bay Packers 4-0
They are really good. They are the champs and they are undefeated. They are the best team in the NFL right now. Aaron Rodgers cannot play at a 124.7 passer rating pace for too much longer since that is pretty much impossible (and as good as he looks now, he hasn't played as good as Peyton in 2004 when he had a 121.1). That defense, though, will probably get better. They still haven't had a great game, but they are still getting turnovers. Until they lose they won't drop. I honestly think they have a shot to lose this Sunday night in Atlanta, but that's just a gut feeling. My head is telling me it could be something resembling the 48-21 playoff game.
Playoff Projections/Predictions
AFC
1.) Baltimore Ravens 13-3
2.) San Diego Chargers 13-3
3.) New England Patriots 12-4
4.) Houston Texans 11-5
5.) Pittsburgh Steelers 10-6
6.) Oakland Raiders 10-6
NFC
1.) Green Bay Packers 13-3
2.) New Orleans Saints 13-3
3.) New York Giants 11-5
4.) San Francisco 49ers 9-7
5.) Detroit Lions 12-4
6.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers 10-6
'Till Next Time
