So, after a one week hiatus, where everything went right in my NFL world (Pats lost, Raiders won, Colts look competent for once without Manning), I've decided to forget my earlier decision to forget about football. Anyway, here come my Week 4 NFL Picks.
Detroit Lions @ Dallas Cowboys (-2.5)
Dallas beat Washington 18-16 at home. Detroit is a different animal, especially on that defensive line. Suh, KVB and the rest of the boys will tee off on an offensive line that still isn't really gelling. Tony Romo, for all his supposed heroics, played average, especially given that horrible pick he through in the 3rd quarter. The Lions offense should be able to take advantage of that still porous pass defense. The Cowboys should be able to get a good pass rush, but then again, the Vikings did too.
Lions 27 (DET) Cowboys 20
New Orleans Saints (-7) @ Jacksonville Jaguars
The Saints are good. The Jags are not. The Saints have been scoring at a really high rate, and the Jaguars defense, while being good so far, has yet to face a passing offense close to that of the Saints. Drew Brees is quietly having an excellent season through three games. The Jaguars offense will really struggle under Blaine Gabbert against a good blitzing defense. This one is quite easy to call.
Saints 31 (NO) Jaguars 16
San Francisco 49ers @ Philadelphia Eagles (-9.5)
That is a high number for a team that looked lifeless a week ago and with a QB who had a concussion and then a bruised (at one point close to broken) hand in his last two games. The 49ers offense is still not very good, but they have one key advantage over the Eagles: Vernon Davis. The Eagles' LBs are horrible. They can't cover anyone, and Vernon Davis should have a nice game. I still think the Eagles are too good to actually lose this game, but they 49ers will keep it close.
49ers 20 (SF) Eagles 24
Washington Redskins (-3) @ St. Louis Rams
I'm not sure if I like the idea of the Redskins and Rex Grossman being favorites on the road, but the Rams are not playing good at all. The Redskins defense has been really good so far this season, which is worse for an offense still struggling to just get off the ground. Rex Grossman still had a bad interception against Dallas, but mainly stayed protective of the ball. This is much like the old Shanahan reclamation project Jake Plummer. I like this Redskins team right now. Their defense plays tough. Their offense can make some moves and the running game is operating on a Shanahan-lite level.
Redskins 24 (WAS) Rams 16
Tennessee Titans (PK) @ Cleveland Browns
One of these teams will be 3-1. That is terrifying. Mike Holmgren stopped coaching Matt Hasselbeck in 2008, when Hasselbeck was washed up. Now, either a team QBed by Hasselbeck or run by Holmgren will be 3-1. Personally, I don't think either team has lasting power, and I like both teams, but when in doubt, go with the home team that isn't QBed by a 38 year old bald man who's really playing with house money.
Titans 17 Browns 23 (CLE)
Buffalo Bills (-3) @ Cincinnati Bengals
Are the Bills really going to be 4-0? I think for the first time in 2011 the Bills offense will be slowed to a point. The Bengals defense is good enough to keep this game relatively lower-scoring. The Bills defense then will have to play well against Andy Dalton, which really isn't a task too difficult for a team that just picked off Tom Brady four times. Andy Dalton has really looked like an overdrafted rookie in a volatile situation. The Bills will, in my estimation, be 4-0, as crazy as that sounds.
Bills 23 (BUF) Bengals 16
Minnesota Vikings (-3) @ Kansas City Chiefs
The only meeting of two 0-3 teams is a game where the two teams is a matchup where one team has lost three close games to three good teams. The other is a team that was blown out twice and then lost a game nowhere as close as the score indicated to San Diego (in KC's defense, Minnesota did as well). I'll go with the team that has played better, the team that has built up big leads, mainly because without Thomas Jones, the Chiefs can't really make the comeback.
Vikings 27 (MIN) Chiefs 20
Carolina Panthers @ Chicago Bears (-7)
The Panthers are a nice team, they really are. But what amazes me is that they've had a lot of success on offense without getting much from DeAngelo Williams ("not getting much" is actually an understatement, since he's been horrific), or that defense. That is not a good way to match up against a team that can play great defense, and limit the big play. The Bears are good enough to beat the Panthers.
Panthers 16 Bears 28 (CHI)
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Houston Texans (-4)
I'm amazed the Texans are favored in this game. I'm more amazed that I really like them here. The Steelers defense is just not the same. They need to replace Aaron Smith, James Farrior, James Harrison and that whole secondary quickly to be set for the next decade. The Texans have a huge game in this one. The division is going to be winnable anyway, but this is the type of game that they lay the hammer down. They will.
Steelers 17 Texans 24 (HOU)
Atlanta Falcons (-6) @ Seattle Seahawks
There isn't any point in picking this game. Weird things happen in that stadium. Most people view this game as a lock for the Falcons, but I think the Seahawks keep it close. I'm not really sure why I do, but it just looks like that type of game that could lose a lot of people a lot of money. The Falcons haven't done anything to prove that they can go into what is still a tough place to play and win by a touchdown.
Falcons 27 Seahawks 24 (SEA)
New York Giants (-1.5) @ Arizona Cardinals
I also think this game will be closer than most, and here the line agrees with me. I'm surprised after a win like that the Giants are only favored by 1.5. The Cardinals are better than that 1-2 record. They could easily be 3-0, losing their last two games in bad fashion. The Giants are playing a classic letdown game. Then again, I can't see the Cardinals winning, and that line is awfully low, so after all that, the Giants should cover.
Giants 33 (NYG) Cardinals 28
Miami Dolphins @ San Diego Chargers (-6.5)
The Dolphins stink. The Chargers are still getting better. The Chargers haven't played a great game yet, and Philip Rivers has been pedestrian for him. I won't waste time on a game that is really obvious pick.
Dolphins 13 Chargers 27 (SD)
Denver Broncos @ Green Bay Packers (-12)
This is more obvious than the Chargers pick. The Packers will lose eventually, but it sure as hell won't be to the Broncos. Orton will have time, and that Packers defense doesn't look nearly as good as it was in 2009-2010, but the Packers offense will easily score too many points.
Broncos 24 Packers 41 (GB)
New England Patriots (-6.5) @ Oakland Raiders
This is a homer pick. This is a pick that will probably be wrong, but fuck it. This is the biggest game the Raiders have played in a while. They can make a statement here. This is the type of team New England can struggle against. The Raiders can run clock to get a good time of possession (much like Baltimore in the 2009 playoffs). The Raiders have the d-line that can get good pressure without blitzing too often (like the Giants in the 2007 playoffs). I like the Raiders to stun everyone and beat the Pats.
Pats 20 Raiders 24 (OAK)
New York Jets @ Baltimore Ravens (-5)
I don't think the Jets are that good. I don't think they are making the playoffs. They made their offense worse with their free agent decisions, and then their defense has mysteriously regressed. The Ravens will be ready for this. This is their night game at home. I researched that they are wearing the black uniforms, and other than a loss to the Colts in 2007, the Ravens have NEVER lost a night game in the all-black uniforms (they've won the other 4). Ravens in Black, it is over.
Jets 13 Ravens 24 (BAL)
Indianapolis Colts @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-10)
I would love to pick the Colts in this game. I won't do that because I don't trust Curtis Painter at all to be anything more than bad. That said, I can pick this to be close because the Buccaneers just don't blow-out anyone. The Colts defense is playing amped up. They aren't quitting, and that is all that I can say about a team that will probably go 3-13.
Colts 17 (IND) Buccaneers 24
Last Week: 10-6
Season to Date: 17-14-1
