I didn't do these in Week 1, and wasn't even sure on doing them at all. Football just isn't the same without Peyton Manning, for me. Then the Raiders Monday Night game happened, where the Raiders went into Denver and did well what they do well. They ran the ball. They stopped the pass and dominated the line of scrimmage. Sebastian Janikowski kicked a super long field goal. And they piled up tons of penalty yards. The Raiders are back again. They aren't falling back into mediocrity like so many of the "experts" predicted (football outsiders, I'm looking at you. You continue to tell jokes about them when they've had an upward trend for three years now). They got me back into football. Not all the way, so the analysis here will be more curt than usual, but at least they inspired me to do it.
Chicago Bears @ New Orleans Saints (-6.5)
This line is too high. The Bears defense was, other than Baltimore, the most impressive defense in Week 1. That was at home, and this is in the Super Dome, but the Saints usually struggle against Cover-2 teams (like Minnesota the past couple of years, or Atlanta in general). Chicago's offense also looks better than ever. I have a fear I was wrong on them (and I have them staying better than most do). The Saints are also still, in my book, really good, but I worry about their offense without Colston. They need a consistent target against a cover-2 and without Colston they don't have that. In the end, the Saints probably won't go 0-2, but I don't see them winning that big.
Bears 20 Saints 24 (CHI)
Kansas City Chiefs @ Detroit Lions (-8.5)
That is a huge number for Detroit to be favored by, but that seems about right. Kansas City looked awful in every single way, and since Week 1, they've lost Tony Moeaki and Eric Berry. Unless Jamaal Charles goes off, which is always a possibility, I don't see the Chiefs scoring enough to keep pace. I hate trusting the Lions to cover this spread, but there offense looked really good in Week 1, and they have the weapons to exploit the Chiefs without Berry.
Chiefs 16 Lions 28 (DET)
Jacksonville Jaguars @ New York Jets (-9)
The jets usually don't blow out teams like Jacksonville, but I think this is different. The Jets' defense will be upset after not having a good performance in Week 1. The Jaguars are starting Luke McCown. The Jets' defense will be able to start teeing off for the first time against the Jaguars and their suspect o-line.
Jaguars 13 Jets 27 (NYJ)
Oakland Raiders @ Buffalo Bills (-3)
The Bills are not good at stopping the run. The Raiders are good at running. The Bills don't have a good o-line. The Raiders d-line is top-5 in the league. The only thing that gives me pause is that the Raiders are playing a 1 pm game on the East Coast. That said, if the Raiders really want to make the playoffs, then they win this game. They need to win this game if they want to make the playoffs. I think they will.
Raiders 24 Bills 16 (OAK)
Arizona Cardinals @ Washington Redskins (-3.5)
This is an interesting game. Rex Grossman has another chance to have a good game, and the Redskins can somehow be 2-0. The Cards are another team playing a 1pm game on the East Coast. I don't think they match up too well with a Redskins team whose defense was a lot better than I thought it would be. The Redskins at home are in a game they should win, and Mike Shanahan usually pulls these games off.
Cardinals 17 Redskins 23 (WAS)
Baltimore Ravens (-6) @ Tennessee
Baltimore's defense made Ben Roethlisberger look bad. They will kill Matt Hasselbeck, who is playing behind a line that has regressed so much over the past three years. The only thing that gives me pause is that the Ravens' run defense wasn't that great against the Steelers, so Chris Johnson can go off. I don't think he will though.
Ravens 27 Titans 10 (BAL)
Seattle Seahawks @ Pittsburgh Steelers (-14)
This is a really high line in any time. It is extremely easy for a favorite to not cover a two-touchdown line. Then again, Tarvaris Jackson against a defense that will be really jacked up to do anything on defense. That is not exactly a recipe for an upset, or even a underdog cover. The Steelers offense should get it going, but the Seahawks defense looked oddly impotent.
Seahawks 10 Steelers 30 (PIT)
Green Bay Packers (-10) @ Carolina Panthers
Another high line, but this one is lower, and makes sense. Cam Newton will probably have a falling back to earth game. The Packers defense will be something he's never seen. The Panthers defense will probably keep this from being a total blowout, but this looks like a total mismatch. Not much to really say here.
Packers 27 Panthers 13 (GB)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Minnesota Vikings (-3)
This is a tough one. Both teams are desperate. The Buccaneers o-line is really good. Detroit barely got any pressure at all in Week 1 against them, and they should do a good job against a Vikings d-line that did a good job in Week 1. The Buccaneers offense is a little overrated though. As is their defense. I think these are two similar teams, so I'll go for a close game, and give the Vikings, since they are at home, a small edge.
Buccaneers 20 Vikings 24 (MIN)
Cleveland Browns (-2) @ Indianapolis Colts
There's no need for analysis. If the Colts can't win this game, then they are going 2-14 or 3-13, and Bill Polian should be fired. Peyton Manning doesn't mean that much. The Colts have to win this game. Take away Manning and they are still more talented. Lost in the Week 1 mess was that when the Colts defense wasn't given a short field after fumbles, they held the Texans to 13 points. Also, the Colts running game was actually present. The Colts get their shit together.
Browns 16 Colts 24 (IND)
Dallas Cowboys (-3) @ San Francisco 49ers
This is a classic Cowboys loss, but the Cowboys already had a classic loss and I'm not ready to give the 49ers a 2-0 start. The analyst in me says that the 49ers rush defense will definitely shut down Choice and Felix. It will be up to Romo, and I think he'll definitely be up to the challenge in this one. The Cowboys defense looked good, but after experience with Rob Ryan through the years, they have about one good game every three. So, I'm not quite sure what to expect this game.
Cowboys 27 49ers 17 (DAL)
Houston Texans (-3) @ Miami Dolphins
The Texans offense is basically as good as the Patriots offense. No, I'm not kidding. That said, what the Patriots did last weekend was one in a million. That won't happen again. Then again, the Dolphins offense played well in Week 1. Chad Henne got great protection. I see a shootout, but when that happens, I go with the better QB, and the team with the great offense.
Texans 31 Dolphins 27 (HOU)
Cincinnati Bengals @ Denver Broncos (-3.5)
I'm not sure I'm ready to have the Bengals at 2-0, but I love Bruce Gradkowski in these winnable games. They won't beat good teams, but they can win these types of games. But then again, I think the Broncos aren't exactly going to sit down. What I did like about the Broncos in Week 1 was their pass rush. Elvis Dumervil looked great, and Von Miller had an immediate impact. Also, Eric Decker looks like a player. I think the line is a half point too high. I think the Broncos win but don't cover.
Bengals 17 Broncos 20 (CIN)
San Diego Chargers @ New England Patriots (-6.5)
Man, is this a great Week 2 game. Rivers didn't look as good as Brady in Week 1 (obviously), but there is no way Brady puts up 516 yards. He's facing a team that gave up just 39 yards in Week 1. Rivers also looked good against great pass rush. The Patriots don't have that type of pass rush. They get free runs every now and then, but they are not consistent down by down at rushing the pass rush. The Chargers defense on the other hand looked great, but that was against the Vikings. The Patriots are a different animal. I don't know who wins, but that line seems awfully high. Other than the 2007 Spygate Revenge game, the Pats-Chargers games have all been close. This one will be too.
Chargers 27 Patriots 24 (SD)
Philadelphia Eagles (-2.5) @ Atlanta Falcons
The Falcons played bad in Week 1, but statistically it was close. A turnover on downs made it a lot less competitive, as did the fumble/touchdown. I don't see the Falcons going to 0-2. This is a great matchup for them. The Eagles are not great against the run, especially against physical runners like Michael Turner. Matt Ryan should be able to complete some passes over the middle to Gonzalez. On the other side, I think Vick will be pressure again. It will all rest on if the Falcons pass rush can get Vick on the ground. I think they can, just enough.
Eagles 23 Falcons 24 (ATL)
St. Louis Rams @ New York Giants (-6)
This is easy. The Rams have a banged up Bradford. Probably won't have Steven Jackson, and Danny Amendola will be out. The Giants still got a great pass rush against the Redskins, but their secondary was awful. That won't be as much of a problem here against a team without any good receivers. The Giants offense should get the running game going. The fact that this is a Monday Night game for the Giants makes it quite simple. If the Giants don't win this then they are in for a much longer game then I thought.
Rams 16 Giants 31 (NYG)
Enjoy the Games.
