For these predictions I am assuming Peyton Manning plays at most 8 games, and probably in the 3-6 range if at all. This already makes me sad beyond belief.
AFC East
1.) New England Patriots 12-4 (3)
They're still good, but there is no way their offense can be that good and protect the ball that well again. Their defense still is average, as I don't think acquiring four thirty year old players will make much of a difference.
2.) New York Jets 9-7
I don't like what they did this offseason. Don't understand why they would replace Braylon Edwards and Jerrico Cotchery, with two similar players (Plax and Derrick Mason) who are both older.
3.) Miami Dolphins 7-9
I like their defense, but every day I feel embarrassed that I once said that Chad Henne would be a major player. I haven't been more wrong on anything, other than possibly picking the A's to win the AL West.
4.) Buffalo Bills 5-11
I like their offense, but their defense is still a few years away. In the past, the Bills at least had some intriguing players in the secondary, but even that pipeline has seems to have closed.
AFC North
1.) Baltimore Ravens 13-3 (1)
I'm not sure why I like the Ravens to have the best record in the NFL. Probably because it is statistically impossible for that defense to ever be bad. Also, Joe Flacco quietly had a great year in 2010 and I think he's ready to become an elite player in the NFL.
2.) Pittsburgh Steelers 11-5 (5)
They are still loaded but I am a full believer in the "Super Bowl loser" curse. The Steelers are talented enough and their schedule easy enough that this is considered a step down for a team that has an intriguing offense.
3.) Cleveland Browns 7-9
I like Colt McCoy, and I like their moxie. They are kind of like the Tampa Bay Buccaneers of 2010 of the AFC. They play in a really tough division, so it will be hard to match those Bucs' 10 wins, but they are still a good young team.
4.) Cincinnati Bengals 5-11
If they weren't starting a rookie QB, I might have them quite a bit better, because I really like their offensive skill position players. Their defense still needs to improve their pass rush by, how you say, a lot.
AFC South
1.) Houston Texans 10-6
Yes, it is finally their year. The rest of the division is mostly a mess now that the Colts are missing Manning for a long time. The Titans are relying on Matt Hasselbeck, who is basically living off of the Wild Card game. The Texans have, in my opinion, the best offense in the NFL.
2.) Indianapolis Colts 7-9
It is sad, because if Manning missed any fewer than 8 games, I might think they could sneak out a weak division. There is no way Manning is missing less than 8 games however, so the Colts are screwed. I now know how Patriots' fans must have felt in 2008. Except I'm not going to claim all year long that the NFL season is tainted.
3.) Tennesse Titans 6-10
They only reason they will win seven games is because they play in the AFC South. Their defense also has its moments, and CJ is god for about two wins himself.
4.) Jacksonville Jaguars 4-12
For the umpteenth year, I'm going to say the Jaguars will suck badly. They cut David Garrard and are going with Luke McCown which has never worked. Their defense is still mostly awful and somehow Jack Del Rio still has a job. I have no idea either.
AFC West
1.) San Diego Chargers 12-4 (2)
They probably won't have the #1 offense and defense by yards. Then again, they won't have a special teams that by itself costs the Chargers two games. Phil Rivers will have V-Jax back plus hopefully a full year of Antonio Gates. They are good. Real good.
2.) Oakland Raiders 9-7 (6)
I can dream, can't I? They have a doable schedule, including two pancakes in their division. They have a good defense that features one of the best d-lines in football. They have a great running game. Jason Campbell won't screw things up. That's a recipe for getting close.
3.) Kansas City Chiefs 5-11
This is going to be a major year after effect for the Chiefs, a team that was already getting exposed late last season. They just don't have the skill position players and I don't think Matt Cassel is any good at all.
4.) Denver Broncos 4-12
I like John Fox. I guarantee they won't lose at home 59-14. I like Kyle Orton. That all said, they still have an atrocious defense, one that is now switching to a 4-3. It will take a few years to rectify what Josh McDaniels screwed up.
NFC
NFC East
1.) New York Giants 11-5 (3)
The Giants are a team that should have made the playoffs a year ago. Their offense is very good, and that was with Eli throwing a flukily high amount of touchdowns. Hakeem Nicks and Mario Manningham, I predict, will become one of the better 1-2 combinations in the NFL.
2.) Philadelphia Eagles 10-6 (5)
The Eagles are not the "dream team" but they are very good. Michael Vick probably won't have that kind of year again, but he won't have to. The defense, especially the pass defense, should be better with the three corners that they have.
3.) Dallas Cowboys 8-8
Yes, Tony Romo is back, but in all honesty Jon Kitna was good last year. I don't know if Romo will make that much a difference for the Cowboys. The Cowboys defense will be a huge question with Wade gone.
4.) Washington Redskins 6-10
Yeah, I believe in Rex Grossman somewhat. He reminds me a lot of Jake Plummer when he came to Denver to play for Shanahan. The only difference here is that the Broncos that Plummer came to were a lot better than these Redskins.
NFC North
1.) Green Bay Packers 12-4 (2)
They are still among the most talented teams in the NFL. I don't make to much of a big deal about Grant and Finley returning. Finley can help, but Ryan Grant is an older running back coming off of a major injury.
2.) Detroit Lions 9-7 (6)
Yup, I'm a believer. I like Stafford. I love Megatron. What I love the most is that front seven on defense. We all know about the d-line with Suh, KVB, CLiff Avril and Nick Fairley when he plays. That said, the linebackers are quite good, especially after the pickup of Stephen Tulloch.
3.) Chicago Bears 9-7
I don't see too much of a drop off. They cannot have that good of injury luck on defense, but then again, I think that the offense will get better in year 2 under Mike Martz. He'll use Forte even more in the Marshall Faulk role, and I like Roy Williams in Martz's offense.
4.) Minnesota Vikings 7-9
Their defense is still very talented. Donovan McNabb is definitely an upgrade over 2010's Brett Favre and Joe Webb. That said, they are depending on Bernard Berrian and Percy Harvin as their top receivers.
NFC South
1.) New Orleans Saints 13-3 (1)
I still love this team. Yes, their defense couldn't stop a thing on opening night, but they still had a great chance to win that game (especially considering they were twice stopped on 4th down inside the 10 yard line). Also, that opening game is the biggest lock in gambling. The defending champ is now 8-0 since they started it in 2004.
2.) Atlanta Falcons 9-7
I think they will take a little step back. Julio Jones will need some time to develop and I think Michael Turner is on the edge of being spent. They still have a really bright future, but I think they peaked in 2010 (at least peaking for this current group).
3.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7-9
Talk about taking a step back. They don't have as easy of a schedule, and Josh Freeman probably won't only have 6 interceptions again. The Buccaneers are a year away from being legitimate threats and their future is bright.
4.) Carolina Panthers 4-12
I think this team is still a bit lost. Their o-line has really fallen off since their magnum opus in 2008. Cam Newton will take a while to develop. Also, they have no receivers other than Steve Smith, which is basically the same as 2005. However, this time Steve Smith isn't the same any more.
NFC West
1.) Arizona Cardinals 9-7 (4)
Yup, you heard me. Everyone loves St. Louis. I love the Cardinals.... well at least to go 9-7. I believe in Kevin Kolb. More specifically I believe in Larry Fitzgerald to have a monster season. I think their defense is good when motivated, and they will be as they can actually win games.
2.) St. Louis Rams 8-8
People like them a little too much. Sam Bradford didn't really have the greatest of rookie seasons. I get that he didn't have anyone to throw to, but then again nothing has changed in that arena for 2011. Steven Jackson is nearing the end of the line as well.
3.) San Francisco 49ers 5-11
Still going with Alex Smith? Really? I will take this moment to talk about one of my favorite subjects: Michael Crabtree. The Raiders were excoriated for not taking him and he's really been a nothing for two years.
4.) Seattle Seahawks 3-13
Somehow has to be the worst team. Why not the team relying on Tarvaris Jackson and Marshawn Lynch. The team also has few defensive playmakers. I'm probably way underselling them, but its really hard to pinpoint one team to be absolute shit in any given season.
Playoffs
Wild Card Round
Raiders (A6) 17 @ Patriots (A3) 27
Steelers (A5) 23 @ Texans (A4) 24
Eagles (N5) 30 @ Cardinals (N4) 17
Lions (N6) 20 @ Giants (N3) 27
Divisional Round
Patriots (A3) 17 @ Chargers (A2) 31
Texans (A4) 17 @ Ravens (A1) 24
Giants (N3) 28 @ Packers (N2) 24
Eagles (N5) 24 @ Saints (N1) 31
Championship Games
Chargers (A2) 24 @ Ravens (A1) 20
Giants (N3) 24 @ Saints (N1) 27
Super Bowl XLVI
Chargers 31 (A2) vs Saints (N1) 27
Enjoy the season (enjoy it extra, because I'll be enjoying it less).
