Yeah, the lockout ended a while ago, and yes, there was a frenzied free-agent signing period where I covered all of it, except for not covering it at all. Anyway, let's get straight back to what is here to stay (for at least the next 10 years, until the CBA expires and we get to do this all over again). The NFL will play football games in 2011. There will be a Super Bowl in Indianapolis next February (hopefully a Super Bowl parade in that same city a couple days after). Nothing much has really stayed the same in the NFL landscape since the lockout ended (other than people still blowing the Patriots and Bill Belichick for every move that looks questionable on paper even though for every Randy Moss they traded for there was a Derrick Burgess that did nothing - that's still here). So, here are my rambling post-lockout, pre-season-preview thoughts on what should be a fun season.
= The Eagles are really nowhere near a "dream team" except for their glut of corners. Obviously pairing Nnamdi and Asante together is amazing. This will probably just lead to Domonique Rodgers-Cromartie getting thrown at all the time. This usually doesn't bode well (see: DeAngelo Hall, 2008, playing across from Nnamdi), and I have a sneaking suspicion that Joselio Hanson (who was dominant covering slot receivers in 2010) will get the nickel-corner role above DRC anyway. They might trade DRC, or in what would be an odder move, trade Asante. As for the rest of the Eagles (and I'll cover this more in the season preview), I'm not sure I like a lot of what they did. Cullen Jenkins was really overpaid for a guy who has missed 17 games over the last three seasons and really wasn't all that great in 2010 (at least compared to what he's being paid to produce). Jason Babin was a one hit wonder, but at least there's thought there because he will be reunited with D-Line coach Jim Washburn. Then on offense, this whole Maclin illness thing is weird. They need Maclin to be healthy to allow DeSean Jackson to be their exclusive deep-threat. I'm not sure where Steve Smith fits in either. It is telling that the Giants basically didn't try at all to resign him. Finally, I find it laughable that Vince Young is apparently adding to the "dream team" label. If they have to depend on VY, they aren't going anywhere.
= The two teams that I'm most confused about are Seattle and Minnesota, which is ironic given their close history over the past six years (Koren Robinson, Hutchinson, Burleson and now Sidney and T-Jack). Minnesota seemed to want to start rebuilding, but instead kept all their aging stars, but let the younger ones go (Edwards, Rice). They then got in McNabb (admittedly giving up little), but apparently are fine letting him throw to Berrian and Percy Harvin. They are really building a team that will go about 8-8, which is really pointless. The Seahawks, on the other hand, are seemingly unsure whether they want to draft their way to success or go the FA route (drafting works a lot better, almost always). They have a nice nucleus of young players, but they went out and got Tarvaris Jackson? I'm not a T-Jack hater the way some are, and I find him average to a little below average, but still he's no better than Matt Hasselbeck. Plus, the Seahawks invested quite a bit in Charlie Whitehurst. It's odd that they would have given up on him so quickly. I think I already know one of the playoff teams that won't be making it back in 2011.
= The Falcons had an interesting offseason. On one hand they signed Ray Edwards, which is a move I love. Ray Edwards hasn't proven that he can produce without another playing drawing more attention, like he got with Jared Allen. Luckily for him and the Falcons. He probably won't have to, as he'll have John Abraham who will command at least as much attention from opposing o-lines. On the other side of the trench, I'm surprised the Falcons decided to resign both Justin Blalock (RG - 6yrs) and Tyson Clabo (RT 5-yr), but let Harvey Dahl (the superior player - and in my opinion the best lineman the Falcons have) go. Clabo at least I can understand as he's a tackle, but why pick Blalock over Dahl. Odd choices for a team that is still about as loaded as any other.
= Now let's get to those Patriots. They are a good team, if not a great one, but that is barely any more true after their glut of FA and trade acquisitions. In my mind, Albert Haynesworth is the only one that will more likely than not pay off - and not in the sense that he's going to become the 2006-2008 Big Al again. Ochocinco is done, just like Moss was last year. He did nothing most of last year, and the Bengals were a lot better when he left the field. As for all their D-Line moves, what exactly is the rest of the NFL supposed to fear. Andre Carter and Shaun Ellis are both firmly in the downside of their careers and are both coming off their worst years in a long time. Mark Anderson has done nothing since his rookie season on a team that has a great track record of getting a lot out of its d-lineman (Chicago). Bill Belichick is a great coach, but he's not a magician. He's not suddenly going to wave his wand and turn these aging vets into great players again. And what I really don't understand is that the d-line already was filled with some nice young players. Haynesworth was a great move. The rest have me shrugging my shoulders and saying "So what?
= The Colts moves are interesting in that they acquired three former 1st round picks. Unlike the Pats, a majority of these players are still in their prime. These types of moves - getting Ernie Sims who was miscast in Philadelphia's defense, and Jamaal Anderson who can stop the run quite well but isn't great against the pass, something he doesn't really need to do in Indy - are the types of moves that the Patriots used to make. If even one pays off, it can really help their defense. I think Tommie Harris is done. Like his former teammate Mark Anderson, it says something when a d-lineman doesn't produce in Chicago. I've heard people call Ernie Sims a "bust" around the internet which astounds me, as before he got to Philly, he was hailed as by far the best draft pick in the Matt Millen era. Anderson also is not a good pass rusher, but he's quite adept at stuffing the run, something Indy badly needs.
= The New York teams had very similar FA periods. Both teams really did nothing. The Jets scrapped the heap of old veteran receivers (Burress, Mason) and let two younger receivers go (Braylon, Cotchery). They also missed out on Nnamdi. The Giants didn't sign anyone of note (other than David Baas - which isn't really of note). But what they did that makes me think they came out of the FA period ahead of the Jets is that they resigned their key guys. They got back Bradshaw and Jacobs. They resigned Barry Cofield and Rocky Bernard. They did lose Steve Smith, but they have two WRs ready to explode (Nicks - who already has - and Mario Manningham). The biggest loss might actually be Kevin Boss. Anyway, I think the Jets got worse. The Giants stayed about the same, and they were probably better than their record in 2010.
= The new QBs (apart from Tarvaris) are all in interesting situations. Kevin Kolb obviously is the highest profile because he probably has the best chance to make the playoffs. The o-line is the only below average unit on the Cards. Even with Breaston gone he has the receivers. The defense has playmakers. And of course, I would be remiss to mention that playing in the NFC West helps a lot. The Titans' move for Hasselbeck is curious. He''s basically washed up and was having a lousy year before a brief rennaissance in the postseason. Chris Johnson is threatening a hold-out and Jeff Fisher is gone. Not really a stable environment for a older QB on a new team.
= I love what the Saints did. The only starter they lost was Jonathan Goodwin, but they went out and found a nice stop=gap in Olin Kruetz. Either way, their o-line is good enough to handle the loss of one guy. They resigned almost every other major FA they had (Carl Nicks, Lance Moore, Pierre Thomas, Roman Harper, Anthony Hargrove). Then, they were smartly active in FA. Their 1-yr deal for Aubrayo Franklin was genius. He'll have to be motivated since he's up for a new contract after 2011. Shaun Rogers also provides even more beef up front. Finally, their signing of Darren Sproles was great. Sean Payton is the best person to use someone like Sproles. WIth Ingram in they shouldn't lose much of Reggie Bush's running, but they are replacing Bush's receiving with Sproles. He's a little less consistent, but Sproles is more explosive.
= Finally, while the FA period is fun and all, there is a reason why the two teams that met for the Super Bowl signed exactly one FA from another team that anyone has ever heard of (Steelers signing Cotchery). That's because FA is the most overrated thing in football. This isn't baseball, where players are generally good until about 32 or 33, and then start declining. Most football players that last to a second contract are generally done around 28 or 29, and then start declining. This is especially true of positions like RB, TE, DT, CB (of course, like in anything, there are exceptions). Nate Dunlevy, the brilliant Colts' blogger over at 18to88.com did a draft study, to see what teams are the best at drafting over the past 10 years (2001-2010 drafts). It was a cursory study that used the draft value chart to assign an expected value to each pick, and then the players career AV (added value - a nice stat to judge the ability of a player; the stat was created by pro-football-reference.com). The study revealed some obvious things (like the fact that the Colts, Steelers and Packers were the best drafting teams), but also revealed something telling. I helped out in the project collecting the draft info for each team and Nate asked me to write down both AV by a player for the team he was drafted by and future teams, to get a sense of what team did the best job of getting the most out of their drafted players. The Broncos were the worst team at getting the most out of their own players, and they get 66% of their players career AV. Anyway, here is what this has to do with FA. The WORST team in the NFL at getting value out of its drafted players get 66% of its draftees career value. Most teams are in the 70s and 80s. Basically what this is saying is that FAs rarely produce much after they leave their original team. In fact, most produce very little. Football teams are great at squeezing every last bit of value out of their own players. FA is more often than not a mistake. That's probably why the Steelers and Packers stayed clear. They know the way.
