Tier I - The "Great QB Debate" Duo
31.) Jacksonville Jaguars = 1-15 (306-492)
I still firmly believe the Jets are a worse team, or at least were for the 2020 season. They ended the season on a high note, and the Jags nearly backed their way into having as bad a point differential, but in the end, a -214 is pretty shockingly bad, as is the 243 points in the year of our Lord 2020. If we spin ahead (and I tried to keep the rankings purely on 2020 performance), the differences get more stark, with the Jags having more cap space, a few more higher profile young players, and the rights on Trevor Lawrence. All in all, really great awful showings for our worst two teams, who were more or less the worst in the league from Week 3 or so onwards, after it became more clear the Jags Week 1 win was a fluke. They join the 2001 Panthers as a team that went 1-15 after starting 1-0 - those Panthers ended up in the Super Bowl two years later and have generally been competitive since.
Tier II - The "Cycle of Lower-than-Mediocrity" Duo
30.) Detroit Lions = 5-11 (377-519)
29.) Cincinnati Bengals = 4-11-1 (311-424)
I started watching football with some passion in about 2001 or so. The Lions and Bengals have consistently been bad from that period. Both had some level of run being competent - the Bengals from 2011-2015 (or really 2005-2016 if you want to be generous), and the Lions from 2011-2016 - but its nice for both to take teir spot. The Lions sneakily had the second worst scoring differential in NFL history - and given they may want to trade Stafford they are very clsoe to hitting a full reset. For the Bengals, somuch will be dependent on Burrow's recovery. For 2020, they had some intriguing defensive players in Jessie Bates and Carl Lawson. They need serious weaponry and OL help, but at least they, potentially, have their QB.
Tier III - The "Great QB Debates, Pt. 2" Duo
28.) Denver Broncos = 5-11 (323-446)
27.) Philadelphia Eagles = 4-11-1 (334-418)
27.) Philadelphia Eagles = 4-11-1 (334-418)
Both these two teams were for the most part competitive in their individual games (Philadelphia more so). There is an infrastructure there, though the Eagles have mostly old players. The big question will be do either make moves at QB (putting aside the Wentz question). Drew Lock was very up and down, with a few positives that make him more intriguing than his numbers (ability to avoid sacks, good deep throwing), while Hurts was probably worse than some of the hype (fumbled a lot). I don't think either should be seen as a firm starter but both teams have enough holes you wouldn't blame them for targeting elsewhere in teh draft.
Tier IV - The "Is this fixable?" Duo
26.) Houston Texans = 4-12 (384-464)
25.) Carolina Panthers = 5-11 (350-402)
In theory the Texans have a great QB. Actually that undersells it - it is astonishing how good Watson is despite his team crumbling around him. Watson is phenomenal and I hope they get a coach that can stand back and let him be him and focus on the rest of the team. The problem for Houston is how far over the cap they are, despite trading away expensive players - and their lack of draft picks. For the Panthers, the question becomes QB - the team around that QB is actually fairly decent. If you could trade Watson to the Panthers they would be pretty fantastic. For Carolina, the other fear is Joe Brady very likely gets snapped up as a head coach, and while Matt Rhule is a 'program builder', that would still leave a lot of questions around how him to do it.
Tier V - The "Probably overrated bounceback teams" Trio
24.) Dallas Cowboys = 6-10 (395-473)
23.) New York Giants = 6-10 (280-357)
22.) Atlanta Falcons = 4-12 (396-414)
All three of these teams have some nice elements to point to from this season. For the Cowboys, even without Dak their skill position players remained strong, even overcoming for the first time a while a sub-par line. The defense is a mess, and ultimately it cratered their season, but if they can bring Dak back they could resemble at the very least the 2019 Cowboys. For the Giants, the big question will remain Daniel Jones - is someone that turnover prone really a candidate to turn it around. The defense is storng and should get better under Patrick Graham's scheme in a second year. For the Falcons, to be 4-12 and outscored by 18 points is ludicrous (helps when you win one game 44-6), and they'll always be perennially overrated heading into seasons. It does seem they were competitive enough that they'll hold onto Matt Ryan. I can see all three being trendy sleepers - especially Atlanta given their point differential - but the trendy sleeper rarely seems to be the optimal choice.
Tier VI - The "West Coast Dreaming" Trio
21.) Las Vegas Raiders = 8-8 (434-478)
20.) San Francisco 49ers = 6-10 (376-390)
19.) Los Angeles Chargers = 7-9 (384-426)
What a weird year all three of these teams had. The Raiders with their fast start and slow end - amazingly having paid little attention to defense throughout the entire Gruden run, their defense continues to be a disaster. I hope Gruden doesn't feel the need to switch up Carr because that offense is fine. For the 49ers, they have a question at QB and while I think its convenient people to slam on Garoppolo, the offense definitely does not have the same upside with Mullens or Beathard. The defense should return to great as soon as next year, but it does seem they are about to lose Robert Saleh. For the Chargers, I am somewhat surprised they fired Anthony Lynn after the 4-0 finish (and if I'm another team I would take a chance on him), but they have their QB and good pieces around him. The injuries year after year are a sign of changes needed in teh medical department however.
Tier VII - The "Who knows for 2021" Duo
18.) Minnesota Vikings = 7-9 (430-475)
17.) New England Patriots = 7-9 (326-353)
The Vikings offense had anywhere between the second and fourth best running back in the league, and a dominant season from a rookie WR - it's sad that their defense absolutely cratered and unlike any prior Mike Zimmer team, did not get better at all through the season. They were injured and the secondary players were young, so maybe they turn around next year. What's good for them is a standard defensive regression should bring them back to competency. For the Patriots, same thing but on the offense side. I do wonder how much of the season was derailed by Cam Newton's positive COVID test, and immedaite drop in play. The guy who lit up Seattle showing a great throwing ability in Week 2 was nowhere to be found just four weeks later. It will be interesting to see whwat they do at QB, as it sure seems Stidham is very much not th answer as well. I still have some 'In Bill We Trust' belief, especially since they were missing a good half dozen contributors due to COVID opt-outs and have oodles of cap space.
Tier VIII - The "Clear thinking, please!?" Duo
16.) Arizona Cardinals = 8-8 (410-367)
15.) Miami Dolphins = 10-6 (404-338)
Both teams had rough ends (1-2 finishes) that cost them playoff spots, but to be honest I'm somewhat glad. Neither team is really that great (though Arizona isn't any worse than Chicago) and both have significant areas to improve. For the Cards, it is somewhat personnel, but more just play design and action - in that they are really bad at it. The Cards offense got stale early and outside of Kyler to Nuk it was fairly messy throughout. For the Dolphins, I honestly think they should take a look seriously at if relacing Tua makes sense. They can probably fetch a 1st round pick for him, and they have the #3 pick just sitting there. Either way, they are set up well but this team fluked their way into 10 wins off the back of a stout defense and a lot of return TDs/turnovers. They need to upgrade their OL, their weapons and build a pipeline for when they start losing high price fee agents. Both are good teams, neither were truly playoff worth for their conference (WFT aside) - and I do hope they take the right learnings from the season.
